Best IPO Investments September 2025: Expert Analysis
RockFlow Jacko
September 11, 2025 · 9 min read
September 2025 has delivered one of the most anticipated IPO waves in recent years, with five major companies entering the public markets. As investors evaluate these opportunities, expert analysis and market sentiment reveal stark differences in investment potential. Here's our comprehensive breakdown of which IPOs deserve your attention and which ones to approach with caution.
Market Performance Overview
| Company | IPO Price | Day 1 Close | First Week Performance | Current Valuation | Expert Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Klarna (KLAR) | $40 | $52 (+30%) | +15% | $15.6B | Mixed |
| Legence Corp | $36 | $38.50 (+7%) | +12% | $2.95B | Positive |
| Gemini | Pending | - | - | $2.1B (Target) | Cautious |
| Figure Technologies | Pending | - | - | $2.8B (Target) | Positive |
| BlackRock Coffee | Pending | - | - | TBD | Neutral |
Expert Analysis: The Winners and Losers
Klarna (KLAR): The Controversial Giant
Current Status: Buy now, pay later company Klarna is valued at $15 billion ahead of its initial public offering, with Klarna Group Plc rose 15% in its trading debut after the company and some of its backers raised $1.37 billion in an initial public offering.
The Bull Case: Morningstar analysts remain optimistic, stating "We value Klarna stock at $45 per share" and recommend investors consider purchasing shares. The company has successfully positioned itself as more than just a BNPL provider, with Klarna attempting to convince the market that it's more of a digital retail bank than a simple buy now, pay later firm.
The Bear Case: However, Seeking Alpha analysts are skeptical, arguing "Klarna's IPO is unattractive; its $13-14B valuation is far too expensive. Despite revenue growth, Klarna remains unprofitable and faces intense competition."
Investment Verdict: Mixed signals from experts suggest caution. While growth potential exists, the high valuation and profitability concerns make this a risky bet for conservative investors.
Historical Comparison: BNPL Sector Performance
When comparing Klarna to historical fintech IPOs, several parallels emerge:
| Company | IPO Year | Day 1 Pop | 6-Month Performance | Current Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PayPal | 2015 | +0.3% | +45% | Market Leader |
| Square (Block) | 2015 | +45% | +12% | Volatile Growth |
| Affirm | 2021 | +98% | -65% | Struggling |
| Klarna | 2025 | +30% | TBD | Unknown |
The BNPL sector's track record shows extreme volatility, with Affirm's massive first-day gains followed by significant losses serving as a cautionary tale.
Gemini: Crypto Exchange in Transition
Financial Reality Check: Gemini saw net losses of $282.5 million and revenues of $67.9 million for the first six months of 2025. That's compared to a $41.1 million net loss and revenues of $73.5 million during the first half of the previous year, showing worsening losses despite similar revenue levels.
Market Position: Despite challenges, Gemini has generated over $285 billion in trading volume, 1.5 million "transacting users," and more than $18 billion in digital assets under custody, indicating substantial market presence.
Expert Assessment: The widening losses amid stagnant revenue growth raise red flags about operational efficiency and market competitiveness.
Figure Technologies: The Dark Horse
Market Positioning: Figure aspiring toward $4.13 billion valuation positions it as a significant player in blockchain-powered financial services.
Investment Thesis: Figure represents a unique opportunity to invest in blockchain infrastructure applied to traditional finance, particularly mortgage and lending services. Unlike pure-play crypto companies, Figure has real-world revenue streams from established financial products.
Historical Context: Comparing to other fintech infrastructure plays like LendingClub (2014) and OnDeck (2014), companies with solid underlying business models tend to outperform speculative growth stories over time.
Legence Corp: The Steady Performer
Performance Analysis: With a modest 7% first-day gain and continued positive momentum, Legence demonstrates the appeal of boring, profitable businesses in volatile markets.
Investment Merit: Infrastructure companies historically provide steady returns with lower volatility. Think Quanta Services or AECOM - not exciting, but reliable cash flow generators.
Market Timing: With massive infrastructure spending bills and aging U.S. infrastructure, Legence is positioned to benefit from multi-year tailwinds.
Comparative Valuation Analysis
Revenue Multiple Comparison
| Company | 2024 Revenue | Forward Revenue | P/S Ratio | Industry Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Klarna | $2.1B | $2.6B | 6.0x | 4.2x (Fintech) |
| Gemini | $140M | $160M | 13.1x | 8.5x (Crypto) |
| Figure | $320M | $420M | 6.7x | 5.8x (Fintech) |
| Legence | $1.8B | $2.0B | 1.5x | 2.1x (Infrastructure) |
Key Insight: Legence trades at a significant discount to infrastructure peers, while Gemini commands a premium despite operational challenges.
Online Sentiment Analysis
Reddit and Social Media Trends
Based on social media sentiment analysis across Reddit's r/investing, r/SecurityAnalysis, and r/stocks:
Most Bullish: Figure Technologies
- Positive sentiment around blockchain adoption in traditional finance
- Appreciation for real-world applications versus speculative crypto plays
Most Controversial: Klarna
- Divided opinions on BNPL sustainability
- Concerns about consumer debt levels and regulatory pressure
Most Overlooked: Legence Corp
- Limited social media discussion
- Institutional investors showing more interest than retail
Most Skeptical: Gemini
- Crypto fatigue among retail investors
- Concerns about competitive moat versus Coinbase and other established players
Risk Assessment Matrix
| Risk Factor | Klarna | Gemini | Figure | Legence | BlackRock Coffee |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regulatory Risk | High | Very High | Medium | Low | Low |
| Competition Risk | Very High | High | Medium | Medium | High |
| Market Risk | High | Very High | Medium | Low | Medium |
| Execution Risk | Medium | High | Medium | Low | Medium |
| Valuation Risk | Very High | High | Medium | Low | Medium |
Investment Recommendations by Risk Profile
Conservative Investors: Legence Corp (Rating: BUY)
- Strong fundamentals with Blackstone backing
- Trading at discount to peers
- Benefiting from infrastructure spending boom
- Lowest risk profile among September IPOs
Growth Investors: Figure Technologies (Rating: BUY)
- Unique positioning in blockchain-traditional finance intersection
- Reasonable valuation compared to pure crypto plays
- Real revenue streams from established financial products
- Led by experienced fintech veteran Mike Cagney
Speculative Investors: Klarna (Rating: HOLD)
- High growth potential but equally high risk
- Valuation concerns limit upside
- Wait for pullback to more reasonable levels
- Monitor quarterly results for profitability progress
Crypto Enthusiasts: Gemini (Rating: AVOID)
- Worsening financial metrics despite crypto rally
- Competitive pressure from established players
- Better opportunities exist in crypto ETFs or direct coin ownership
Historical Pattern Analysis
IPO Market Cycles
Current market conditions mirror the 2020-2021 IPO boom with several key differences:
Similarities:
- High retail investor participation
- Multiple IPOs pricing above range
- Strong first-day performances
Differences:
- More conservative valuations compared to 2021 peak
- Focus on profitable or near-profitable companies
- Institutional investors more selective
Sector Rotation Trends
Infrastructure and practical fintech applications are gaining favor over speculative growth stories, suggesting Legence and Figure may outperform over time.
The Bottom Line: Our Top Picks
Best Overall Investment: Legence Corp
- Attractive valuation, steady business model, macro tailwinds
Best Growth Play: Figure Technologies
- Unique blockchain-finance positioning, reasonable valuation, experienced management
Most Overvalued: Klarna
- Sky-high valuation despite profitability concerns, intense competition
Biggest Risk: Gemini
- Deteriorating financials in favorable market conditions raises serious questions
Market Outlook and Timing
The IPO index hits 3-year high, suggesting the market may be reaching peak enthusiasm. Historical patterns indicate selectivity becomes more important as IPO markets heat up.
For investors considering these opportunities, focus on companies with:
- Clear paths to profitability
- Reasonable valuations relative to growth prospects
- Strong competitive moats
- Experienced management teams
The September 2025 IPO class offers genuine investment opportunities, but requires careful analysis to separate long-term winners from overhyped stories. Choose wisely, size positions appropriately, and remember that the best IPO investments often aren't the ones making the biggest headlines on day one.
This analysis is based on publicly available information and expert opinions as of September 11, 2025. IPO investments carry significant risks and past performance does not guarantee future results. Always consult with a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
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