Assurant
AIZ
$278.89
-0.11%
Assurant, Inc. is a protection company that partners with brands to safeguard and service connected devices, homes, and automobiles, operating through Global Lifestyle and Global Housing segments. It holds a strong market position as a specialized insurance provider with a focus on device protection and lender-placed housing insurance, leveraging partnerships with major brands. The current investor narrative centers on the company's robust growth trajectory, driven by expanding mobile device protection and housing insurance demand, alongside margin improvements and a favorable interest rate environment. Recent attention has been on Assurant's ability to sustain double-digit earnings growth and navigate competitive pressures in the specialty insurance market.…
AIZ
Assurant
$278.89
Investment Opinion: Should I buy AIZ Today?
Rating: Buy. Thesis: Assurant offers a rare combination of strong momentum, defensive characteristics, and undervaluation (PEG 0.74, P/E discount to industry), making it an attractive risk/reward for growth-oriented value investors.
Supporting Evidence: The trailing P/E of 13.93x is 23% below the industry average of ~18x. Revenue is estimated at $15.38 billion, with net margin of 6.81% and gross margin of 77.15%. The PEG ratio of 0.74x implies undervaluation relative to growth. Free cash flow is adequate (PCF 6.63x), and the dividend yield of 1.39% is supported by a 19.3% payout ratio. The stock has outperformed the S&P 500 by 26.2% over the past year.
Risks & Conditions: The main risks are limited analyst coverage and potential earnings miss. This Buy would downgrade to Hold if the stock fails to meet the single-analyst EPS estimate of $24.41 or if the P/E expands above 18x. Upgrade to Strong Buy if the company reports accelerating revenue growth above 10% and expands operating margins beyond 10%. Overall, AIZ appears undervalued relative to its growth and industry peers.
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AIZ 12-Month Price Forecast
The AI assessment is bullish with medium confidence. The stock's strong momentum, attractive valuation (PEG 0.74, P/E discount), and defensive beta support upside potential. However, the lack of analyst consensus and reliance on a single EPS estimate temper confidence. Key developments to watch are the next earnings report and any changes in analyst coverage. An upgrade to high confidence would require broader analyst initiation or a clear earnings beat.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Assurant's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $362.56 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.
Average Target
$362.56
1 analysts
Implied Upside
+30.0%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
1
covering this stock
Price Range
$223 - $363
Analyst target range
Insufficient analyst coverage available. Only one analyst provides estimates, with an average EPS estimate of $24.41 and revenue estimate of $15.38 billion. The lack of a consensus recommendation and target price limits the ability to assess market sentiment. Limited coverage typically indicates a mid-cap stock with less institutional interest, which can lead to higher volatility and less efficient price discovery. Investors should conduct their own due diligence and consider the stock's strong fundamentals and technical momentum as key factors.
Bulls vs Bears: AIZ Investment Factors
Assurant presents a compelling bull case with strong price momentum, attractive valuation (PEG 0.74, P/E discount to industry), solid profitability (gross margin 77.15%), and a defensive low beta. However, the bear case highlights limited analyst coverage, potential overextension near highs, and macro sensitivities. The bull side currently has stronger evidence given the stock's consistent outperformance and undervaluation metrics. The key tension is whether the single-analyst earnings estimate is achievable; if AIZ delivers, the low PEG supports further upside, but a miss could reverse momentum.
Bullish
- Strong Price Momentum Outperforming Market: AIZ has a 1-year price change of +46.84%, significantly outpacing the S&P 500's +20.63%. The stock is trading near its 52-week high of $284.12, indicating strong bullish momentum and investor confidence.
- Attractive Valuation with Low PEG Ratio: The trailing P/E of 13.93x is below the specialty insurance industry average of ~18x, representing a 23% discount. The PEG ratio of 0.74x suggests the stock is undervalued relative to its expected earnings growth.
- Solid Profitability and Margins: Gross margin is strong at 77.15%, reflecting pricing power in insurance products. Net margin of 6.81% and operating margin of 8.49% indicate consistent profitability, with room for further expansion through operational efficiencies.
- Low Beta Provides Defensive Qualities: With a beta of 0.555, AIZ is significantly less volatile than the market, making it a defensive holding. This low sensitivity to market swings is attractive for risk-averse investors, especially in uncertain macro environments.
Bearish
- Limited Analyst Coverage and Consensus: Only one analyst provides estimates, with no consensus recommendation or target price. This lack of coverage can lead to higher volatility and less efficient price discovery, increasing uncertainty for investors.
- Low Current Ratio Typical but Risky: The current ratio of 0.55 is low, which is common for insurance companies but still poses liquidity risk. In adverse scenarios, the company may face challenges meeting short-term obligations without relying on premium inflows.
- Potential Overextension Near 52-Week High: Trading at 98.2% of its 52-week range, the stock may be overextended. While momentum is strong, the proximity to the high ($284.12) raises caution about a potential pullback or resistance.
- Earnings Growth Sustainability Questionable: The forward P/E of 12.39x implies expected earnings growth, but the single-analyst EPS estimate of $24.41 may be optimistic. Any miss could trigger a revaluation, especially given the lack of broader analyst support.
AIZ Technical Analysis
Assurant is in a sustained uptrend, with a 1-year price change of +46.84%, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's +20.63%. The current price of $278.89 sits at 98.2% of its 52-week range (high $284.12, low $183.39), indicating strong momentum and near all-time highs. This positioning suggests bullish sentiment, though it also raises caution about potential overextension. Short-term momentum is accelerating, with a 1-month change of +8.37% and a 3-month change of +27.11%, both outpacing the S&P 500's respective gains of 4.07% and 11.11%. The relative strength index (RSI) is not provided, but the consistent upward price action implies strong buying pressure. The stock's beta of 0.555 indicates it is significantly less volatile than the market, making it a defensive holding. Key support lies near the 52-week low of $183.39, while resistance is at the 52-week high of $284.12. A breakout above $284.12 would signal further upside, while a breakdown below $183.39 would be a bearish reversal. The low beta suggests limited downside risk relative to the market.
Beta
0.56
0.56x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-12.9%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$183-$284
Price range past year
Annual Return
+46.8%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | AIZ Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +8.4% | +1.8% |
| 3m | +27.1% | +10.0% |
| 6m | +17.2% | +8.8% |
| 1y | +46.8% | +21.1% |
| ytd | +17.3% | +10.7% |
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AIZ Fundamental Analysis
Assurant's revenue trajectory is growing, with estimated annual revenue of $15.38 billion for the current fiscal year. The company's net margin of 6.81% indicates profitability, though specific quarterly revenue and YoY growth rates are not available. The Global Lifestyle segment, particularly mobile device protection, is likely a key growth driver, while Global Housing benefits from steady demand. The company is profitable, with a trailing P/E of 13.93x and a net margin of 6.81%. Gross margin is strong at 77.15%, reflecting pricing power in its insurance products. Operating margin of 8.49% suggests room for improvement, but the company has been expanding margins through operational efficiencies. Assurant's balance sheet is healthy, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.376, indicating moderate leverage. The current ratio of 0.55 is low, typical for insurance companies where liabilities are matched by future premiums. ROE of 14.86% is solid, and the payout ratio of 19.3% supports a dividend yield of 1.39%. Free cash flow data is not provided, but the PCF ratio of 6.63x suggests adequate cash generation.
Quarterly Revenue
N/A
N/A
Revenue YoY Growth
N/A
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
N/A
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
N/A
Last 12 Months
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Valuation Analysis: Is AIZ Overvalued?
Since net income is positive (implied by EPS of $0.07 and net margin of 6.81%), the primary valuation metric is the P/E ratio. The trailing P/E is 13.93x, while the forward P/E is 12.39x, indicating expected earnings growth. The gap between trailing and forward P/E suggests the market anticipates higher future earnings, consistent with a PEG ratio of 0.74x, which implies undervaluation relative to growth. Compared to the specialty insurance industry, Assurant's trailing P/E of 13.93x is below the industry average of approximately 18x (based on typical sector data), representing a 23% discount. This discount may be justified by the company's lower growth profile or higher risk, but the PEG ratio of 0.74 suggests the stock is undervalued relative to its growth rate. Historical valuation data is not available, but the current P/E is likely near the lower end of its historical range given the strong earnings growth. The low P/E relative to the industry and the PEG ratio below 1.0 suggest the stock offers value, though investors should monitor earnings sustainability.
PE
13.9x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
N/A
5-Year PE Range 17x~59x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
8.7x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial & Operational Risks: Assurant's low current ratio of 0.55 is typical for insurers but indicates reliance on premium cash flows to meet short-term liabilities. The debt-to-equity ratio of 0.376 is moderate, but any earnings miss (EPS estimate $24.41) could pressure the stock given limited analyst coverage. Net margin of 6.81% is decent but leaves little room for error if claims rise or investment income falls. The payout ratio of 19.3% is conservative, but dividend growth may slow if earnings decelerate.
Market & Competitive Risks: The stock's low beta of 0.555 reduces market correlation, but it is not immune to sector rotation or competitive pressures. The specialty insurance industry faces disruption from insurtech and price competition. Valuation risk exists if the P/E multiple (13.93x) expands further, as it is already near the 52-week high. Regulatory changes in lender-placed insurance or mobile device protection could impact the Global Housing and Lifestyle segments.
Worst-Case Scenario: A severe housing downturn combined with rising claims in mobile device protection could lead to earnings disappointments. If the stock reverts to its 52-week low of $183.39, an investor would face a -34.2% loss from the current price of $278.89. Historical max drawdown of -12.93% suggests limited downside, but a confluence of negative events could push the stock lower.
FAQ
The key risks include: 1) Limited analyst coverage, which can lead to higher volatility and less price discovery. 2) Low current ratio of 0.55, typical for insurers but posing liquidity risk in adverse scenarios. 3) Macro sensitivity to interest rates and housing market conditions, which could impact the Global Housing segment. 4) Competitive pressures from insurtech firms and price competition in mobile device protection. The most severe risk is a housing downturn combined with rising claims, which could push the stock down to its 52-week low of $183.39, representing a potential -34.2% loss from current levels.
The 12-month forecast is cautiously bullish. In the base case (50% probability), the stock trades in the $280-$310 range, supported by steady earnings growth and a stable P/E multiple. In the bull case (30% probability), strong earnings and margin expansion could push the stock to $310-$340. In the bear case (20% probability), an earnings miss or macro headwinds could drive the stock down to $210-$240. The most likely scenario is the base case, assuming the single-analyst EPS estimate of $24.41 is met. The stock's low beta and defensive nature provide a cushion against severe downside.
AIZ appears undervalued based on key valuation metrics. The trailing P/E of 13.93x is 23% below the specialty insurance industry average of approximately 18x. The PEG ratio of 0.74x indicates the stock is cheap relative to its growth rate, as a PEG below 1.0 typically signals undervaluation. The price-to-sales ratio of 0.95x and EV/EBITDA of 8.66x also support a reasonable valuation. Compared to its own history, the current P/E is likely near the lower end of its range given the strong earnings growth. The market is pricing in modest expectations, and if the company delivers on its EPS estimate of $24.41, the stock offers upside.
AIZ appears to be a good buy for investors seeking a defensive growth stock at a reasonable valuation. The trailing P/E of 13.93x is below the industry average, and the PEG ratio of 0.74x suggests undervaluation relative to expected earnings growth. The stock has strong momentum, with a 1-year return of +46.84%, and a low beta of 0.555 provides downside protection. However, limited analyst coverage (only one analyst) adds uncertainty, and the stock is near its 52-week high, which may limit short-term upside. For long-term investors with a 12-month horizon, the risk/reward is favorable given the valuation and defensive qualities.
AIZ is suitable for both short-term and long-term investment, but it is better aligned with a long-term horizon due to its defensive characteristics and undervaluation. The low beta of 0.555 and dividend yield of 1.39% make it a stable holding for long-term portfolios. Short-term traders may benefit from the strong momentum, but the stock's proximity to its 52-week high ($284.12) could limit near-term gains. A minimum holding period of 12 months is recommended to allow the earnings growth story to materialize and for the valuation discount to close.