Assurant
AIZ
$257.34
+2.53%
Assurant, Inc. is a global provider of specialty insurance and protection products, operating through two core segments: Global Lifestyle, which includes mobile device solutions, consumer electronics, and appliance services, and Global Housing, which encompasses lender-placed and voluntary homeowners, manufactured housing, and flood insurance. The company is a distinct player in the insurance sector, acting as a strategic partner to major brands and financial institutions, offering embedded protection solutions rather than competing directly with mass-market insurers. The current investor narrative centers on the company's ability to navigate macroeconomic pressures on its housing-related lines while capitalizing on the secular growth in connected device protection, with recent stock performance reflecting a debate over its resilience and margin trajectory in a potentially volatile interest rate environment.…
AIZ
Assurant
$257.34
Investment Opinion: Should I buy AIZ Today?
Rating & Thesis: The synthesized recommendation is a Hold. The core thesis is that AIZ presents a fundamentally sound, defensively positioned company with attractive valuation metrics, but its technical overextension and lack of analyst coverage warrant caution before establishing new positions, suggesting investors wait for a better entry point. The single analyst's average revenue estimate of $15.38B provides a baseline, but the lack of a consensus target price limits a clear valuation anchor.
Supporting Evidence: The Hold rating is supported by four key data points: 1) The forward P/E of 11.20x and PEG ratio of 0.74 signal undervaluation relative to growth, 2) The robust ROE of 14.86% and gross margin of 77.15% confirm operational strength, 3) The low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.38 provides financial resilience, and 4) The stock's low beta of 0.556 offers defensive characteristics, though it has underperformed the market over one year (-3.66% relative strength).
Risks & Conditions: The two biggest risks are a technical reversal from near the 52-week high and the uncertainty stemming from minimal analyst scrutiny. This Hold rating would upgrade to a Buy if the stock experiences a healthy pullback to support near $230-$240 (aligning with its 50-day moving average zone) while its forward P/E remains below 12x, or if several major analysts initiate coverage with bullish targets. It would downgrade to a Sell if the price breaks below the $210 support level on high volume, indicating a failed breakout and trend reversal, or if quarterly earnings show a contraction in the operating margin below 8%. Based on its PEG ratio and P/CF, the stock appears fairly valued to slightly undervalued relative to its own growth profile, but not compelling enough to chase at current highs.
Sign up to view all
AIZ 12-Month Price Forecast
The AI assessment is neutral based on a clash between compelling fundamentals and challenging technicals. The valuation (PEG < 1) and profitability (ROE ~15%) are strong, making a long-term case for the stock. However, the immediate price action near 52-week highs and the lack of analyst consensus create a headwind for near-term outperformance. Confidence is medium due to the clear data points but the unknown variable of future analyst engagement. The stance would upgrade to bullish on a successful breakout above $261 with volume confirmation, or on an expansion of analyst coverage. It would turn bearish if the stock breaks below the $230 support level, invalidating the recent uptrend structure.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Assurant's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $334.54 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.
Average Target
$334.54
1 analysts
Implied Upside
+30.0%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
1
covering this stock
Price Range
$206 - $335
Analyst target range
Analyst coverage for Assurant appears extremely limited, with data indicating coverage from only one analyst, which constitutes insufficient analyst coverage for deriving a meaningful consensus. This lack of broad institutional coverage is typical for mid-cap specialty financial firms and can lead to higher volatility and less efficient price discovery, as the stock may be more influenced by company-specific news rather than curated analyst sentiment. The single analyst's revenue estimate for the year is $15.38 billion, with a range from $15.12 billion to $15.64 billion, indicating a relatively tight forecast spread of about 3.5%, which suggests high conviction in the top-line outlook from that firm, but the extremely small sample size prevents any aggregate sentiment call such as bullish or bearish.
Bulls vs Bears: AIZ Investment Factors
The evidence currently tilts slightly bullish, supported by strong fundamentals like a 14.86% ROE, attractive valuation (forward P/E of 11.2x, PEG of 0.74), and a conservative balance sheet. However, significant bearish counterpoints exist, primarily the stock's technical overextension near its 52-week high and the lack of analyst coverage, which clouds forward visibility. The single most important tension in the investment debate is between the stock's compelling valuation and growth metrics (PEG < 1) and its technical positioning at the peak of a strong rally. The resolution of this tension—whether the fundamentals justify a breakout to new highs or if technical exhaustion triggers a mean-reversion pullback—will most decisively shape the near-term thesis.
Bullish
- Strong Profitability and Capital Efficiency: The company boasts a robust Return on Equity (ROE) of 14.86%, demonstrating effective deployment of shareholder capital. This is supported by a healthy gross margin of 77.15% and an operating margin of 8.49%, indicating efficient core operations.
- Attractive Valuation and Growth Prospects: The stock trades at a forward P/E of 11.2x and a PEG ratio of 0.74, suggesting it is undervalued relative to its expected earnings growth. The low price-to-cash-flow ratio of 6.63 further highlights the market's attractive valuation of its cash generation.
- Conservative Financial Leverage: Assurant maintains a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.38, signaling minimal financial risk and a strong balance sheet. This conservative approach provides resilience during economic downturns and flexibility for strategic initiatives.
- Defensive Market Profile with Low Volatility: With a beta of 0.556, the stock is approximately 44% less volatile than the broader market, offering a defensive characteristic. This low correlation, combined with a 1-year price gain of 23.38%, suggests it can deliver steady returns with lower risk.
Bearish
- Limited Analyst Coverage and Visibility: Analyst coverage is extremely limited, with only one firm providing estimates, which can lead to higher volatility and less efficient price discovery. This lack of broad institutional scrutiny increases uncertainty around forward projections and sentiment.
- Low Current Ratio Raises Liquidity Questions: The current ratio of 0.55 is low, which, while contextual for an insurance company, may raise concerns about short-term liquidity management relative to liabilities. This requires monitoring, especially in a rising interest rate environment.
- Potential Overextension Near 52-Week High: Trading at 96% of its 52-week high, the stock's strong rally may be overextended, increasing near-term risk of a pullback or consolidation. The recent 1-month relative strength of 1.52 suggests the pace of gains has moderated, hinting at potential exhaustion.
- Underperformance vs. Market Over 1 Year: Despite a 23.38% 1-year gain, AIZ has underperformed the S&P 500, which returned 27.04%, resulting in negative 1-year relative strength of -3.66. This indicates the stock may be losing favor relative to broader market growth opportunities.
AIZ Technical Analysis
The stock is in a sustained uptrend, evidenced by a robust 1-year price change of +23.38%. As of the latest close at $251.66, the price is trading near the top of its 52-week range, approximately 96% of the way towards its 52-week high of $260.97, indicating strong momentum but also raising concerns about potential overextension. Recent momentum has been positive but shows signs of consolidation; the stock gained 6.12% over the past month and 12.90% over the past three months, outpacing the S&P 500's 4.6% and 12.6% gains over the same periods, respectively, as shown by its positive 1-month and 3-month relative strength figures of 1.523 and 0.2976. The 1-month gain is a continuation of the longer-term uptrend, though the pace has moderated slightly from the 3-month performance, suggesting the rally may be entering a phase of digestion. Key technical support is anchored at the 52-week low of $183.39, while immediate resistance is at the 52-week high of $260.97; a decisive breakout above this level would signal a continuation of the bullish trend, whereas a failure could lead to a retest of support near the recent consolidation zone around $240. The stock's beta of 0.556 indicates it is approximately 44% less volatile than the broader market, which is a critical consideration for risk-averse investors seeking defensive exposure within the financial sector.
Beta
0.57
0.57x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-12.9%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$183-$261
Price range past year
Annual Return
+31.3%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | AIZ Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +5.4% | -1.9% |
| 3m | +19.5% | +8.9% |
| 6m | +12.2% | +6.4% |
| 1y | +31.3% | +20.3% |
| ytd | +8.3% | +6.4% |
Bobby - Your AI Investment Partner
Get real-time data, AI-driven personalized investment analysis to make smarter investment decisions
AIZ Fundamental Analysis
Revenue trajectory analysis is constrained as specific quarterly revenue and growth rate figures are not available in the provided data; however, analyst estimates project full-year revenue of approximately $15.38 billion, offering a forward-looking benchmark. The company is profitable, reporting a net margin of 6.81% and a trailing EPS of $0.07, though the low EPS figure relative to the stock price suggests potential non-recurring items or accounting treatments in the reported period. Profitability metrics are solid, with a robust gross margin of 77.15% and an operating margin of 8.49%, indicating efficient core underwriting and service operations, though the gap between gross and operating margins points to significant administrative and operational expenses typical of the insurance industry. The balance sheet appears conservatively managed, with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.38, signaling minimal financial leverage risk, and a current ratio of 0.55, which is low for a non-financial firm but requires context for an insurance company holding substantial long-term invested assets. Return on equity is healthy at 14.86%, demonstrating effective use of shareholder capital, and the price-to-cash-flow ratio of 6.63 suggests the market is valuing the company's cash generation attractively, supporting the case for stable financial health.
Quarterly Revenue
N/A
N/A
Revenue YoY Growth
N/A
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
N/A
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
N/A
Last 12 Months
Open an Account, get $2 TSLA now!
Valuation Analysis: Is AIZ Overvalued?
Given the company's positive net margin and EPS, the primary valuation metric selected is the Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio. The stock trades at a trailing P/E of 13.93x and a forward P/E of 11.20x; the discount of the forward multiple implies the market anticipates earnings growth, aligning with the positive PEG ratio of 0.74, which suggests the stock may be undervalued relative to its growth prospects. Compared to sector averages, which are not provided in the data, a qualitative assessment based on the multiples alone is challenging; however, a trailing P/E near 14x for a profitable specialty insurer with a 14.9% ROE does not appear egregiously expensive, potentially trading in line with or at a slight discount to slower-growing peers. Historical context is limited without historical ratio data, but the current P/E must be evaluated against the company's own long-term average; given the stock's strong price performance over the past year, the multiple likely reflects improved investor sentiment, and if it is near the high end of its historical range, it may be pricing in optimistic expectations for continued margin expansion and stable growth.
PE
13.9x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
N/A
5-Year PE Range 17x~59x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
8.7x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial & Operational Risks: The primary financial risk stems from the company's low current ratio of 0.55, which, while not uncommon for insurers, indicates a potential mismatch between short-term assets and liabilities that requires careful asset-liability management. Furthermore, the trailing EPS of $0.07 is anomalously low, suggesting earnings volatility or the impact of one-time items, which could lead to investor confusion and price swings if not clearly communicated. While the debt-to-equity ratio of 0.38 is low, the company's profitability (net margin of 6.81%) is not exceptionally high, leaving it exposed to margin compression from inflationary cost pressures in its service-oriented segments.
Market & Competitive Risks: The stock's valuation, while reasonable on a P/E basis, is being tested as it trades at 96% of its 52-week high ($260.97), creating a risk of valuation compression if it fails to break out decisively. Its low beta of 0.556, while defensive, also means it may lag in strong bull markets, as evidenced by its 1-year underperformance versus the S&P 500. A significant market risk is the limited analyst coverage; with only one analyst providing estimates, the stock is more susceptible to sharp moves on company-specific news without the buffering effect of a broad analyst consensus, increasing idiosyncratic volatility.
Worst-Case Scenario: The worst-case scenario involves a combination of a macroeconomic downturn impacting its Global Housing segment (e.g., a spike in mortgage defaults) and a simultaneous loss of a major partner in its Global Lifestyle mobile division. This could trigger a severe earnings miss, leading multiple analysts (if they initiated coverage) to downgrade the stock. Given its technical overextension, this could catalyze a rapid sell-off toward its 52-week low of $183.39. From the current price of $251.66, this represents a realistic downside of approximately -27%. The stock's demonstrated max drawdown of -12.93% in the recent period shows it is not immune to sharp corrections, which could be amplified in a worst-case scenario.
FAQ
The key risks are: 1) Technical/Price Risk: The stock is trading at 96% of its 52-week high ($260.97), increasing vulnerability to a pullback. 2) Liquidity & Coverage Risk: The extremely limited analyst coverage (1 firm) leads to less efficient price discovery and higher volatility. 3) Operational Risk: A low current ratio of 0.55, while contextual, requires careful monitoring of short-term liability management. 4) Market Risk: Its low beta of 0.556 means it may lag in strong bull markets, as seen in its 1-year underperformance versus the S&P 500. The technical and coverage risks are the most immediate concerns for new investors.
The 12-month forecast presents three scenarios with associated probabilities. The Base Case (55% probability) sees the stock trading between $240 and $265, as it consolidates recent gains with stable execution. The Bull Case (30% probability) targets $275-$290, requiring a breakout above resistance and positive earnings catalysts. The Bear Case (15% probability) warns of a pullback to $190-$220 if technical support fails or fundamentals deteriorate. The base case is most likely, anchored by the company's solid fundamentals but tempered by its elevated technical position. The key assumption is that the forward P/E multiple remains stable near 11x-12x.
Based on key metrics, AIZ appears fairly valued to slightly undervalued. The primary valuation signal is the PEG ratio of 0.74, which is below 1 and typically indicates the stock price is not fully reflecting growth prospects. The forward P/E of 11.20x is also reasonable for a company with its profitability profile. Compared to its own trailing P/E of 13.93x, the forward multiple implies expected earnings growth. The market is paying a fair price for stable earnings and cash flow (P/CF of 6.63), but not a significant premium, suggesting expectations are measured rather than euphoric.
AIZ is a good stock to buy for patient, value-oriented investors seeking defensive exposure, but timing is crucial. The fundamentals are strong, with a forward P/E of 11.2x, a PEG ratio of 0.74 suggesting undervaluation, and a robust ROE of 14.86%. However, at its current price near the 52-week high, the near-term risk/reward is less favorable. The biggest downside risk is a technical pullback toward the $230 support area, representing a potential -8% decline. It is a good buy on a pullback or a confirmed breakout above $261, but chasing the current price carries elevated short-term risk.
AIZ is more suitable for a long-term investment horizon of 3-5 years. Its low beta (0.556) and stable business model in specialty insurance are geared for compounding value over time, not rapid price appreciation. The stock does not pay a significant dividend (yield ~1.39%), so it is not primarily an income play. For short-term traders, the current technical setup near resistance presents a challenging entry point with defined risk, but potential for a breakout trade exists. Given the need for its fundamental value to be realized and for potential analyst coverage to expand, a minimum holding period of 12-18 months is recommended to allow the investment thesis to play out.