Assurant
AIZ
$296.40
-1.71%
Assurant, Inc. is a global protection company that partners with brands to safeguard and service connected devices, homes, and automobiles, operating through two primary segments: Global Lifestyle and Global Housing. As a niche player in the specialty insurance space, Assurant differentiates itself by offering embedded protection solutions and lender-placed insurance, with a strong presence in North America, Latin America, Europe, and Asia Pacific. The current investor narrative centers on the company's robust growth trajectory, driven by its Global Lifestyle segment, particularly mobile device solutions, and its ability to generate strong free cash flow, which has supported a 49% stock price appreciation over the past year. Additionally, recent analyst actions, including upgrades from Morgan Stanley and Piper Sandler, reflect growing confidence in the company's strategic execution and earnings momentum.…
AIZ
Assurant
$296.40
Investment Opinion: Should I buy AIZ Today?
Based on the analysis, AIZ is rated a Buy. The company's accelerating revenue growth (11.26% YoY in Q1 2026), attractive valuation (PEG 0.74x, forward P/E 12.41x), and strong free cash flow ($1.45B TTM) support a positive outlook. The average analyst target of $293 implies 4.95% upside, and recent upgrades from Morgan Stanley and Piper Sandler reinforce confidence. The stock's low beta (0.555) and dividend yield (1.39%) add to its appeal for income-oriented investors.
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AIZ 12-Month Price Forecast
The AI model assesses Assurant as a bullish opportunity, given its strong fundamentals and attractive valuation. The accelerating revenue growth, low PEG ratio, and robust free cash flow generation provide a solid foundation. However, the stock's proximity to its 52-week high and modest analyst upside suggest limited near-term gains. The stance would be upgraded to high confidence if Q2 2026 earnings show continued acceleration and the stock breaks above $284.64. Conversely, a downgrade to neutral would occur if revenue growth decelerates below 8% or the stock falls below $250.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Assurant's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $293.00 and implied upside of -1.1% versus the current price.
Average Target
$293.00
0 analysts
Implied Upside
-1.1%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$274 - $310
Analyst target range
The target price range spans from a low of $274.00 to a high of $310.00, with the low target representing a 1.86% downside and the high target a 11.04% upside. The spread of $36 suggests moderate uncertainty, but the recent upgrades from Morgan Stanley (to Overweight) and Piper Sandler (to Overweight) indicate positive momentum in analyst sentiment. The high target likely assumes continued strong performance in Global Lifestyle and successful execution of growth initiatives, while the low target may factor in potential headwinds from housing market weakness or competitive pressures.
Bulls vs Bears: AIZ Investment Factors
Assurant presents a compelling bull case driven by accelerating revenue growth, a low PEG ratio of 0.74x, and robust free cash flow generation of $1.45B. The company's low beta of 0.555 and recent analyst upgrades add to the positive sentiment. However, the stock's proximity to its 52-week high and modest average analyst upside of 4.95% temper the enthusiasm. The most critical tension is whether the market has already priced in the strong growth trajectory; if Q2 2026 earnings show continued acceleration, the stock could break out, but any disappointment could trigger a correction given the recent run-up. Overall, the bull case currently has stronger evidence, supported by valuation and fundamentals, but investors should be mindful of the limited near-term upside.
Bullish
- Strong Revenue Acceleration: Q1 2026 revenue grew 11.26% YoY to $3.42B, up from 5.6% growth in the prior year quarter, indicating accelerating momentum in the core business, particularly in Global Lifestyle.
- Attractive Valuation with PEG 0.74: With a trailing P/E of 13.93x and forward P/E of 12.41x, the stock trades at a discount to its growth rate. The PEG ratio of 0.74x suggests the market is underpricing Assurant's earnings growth potential.
- Strong Free Cash Flow Generation: TTM free cash flow stands at $1.45B, providing ample capacity for dividends, buybacks, and strategic investments. This supports the 1.39% dividend yield and a payout ratio of only 19.3%, leaving room for future increases.
- Positive Analyst Momentum: Recent upgrades from Morgan Stanley and Piper Sandler to Overweight reflect growing confidence in strategic execution. The average analyst target of $293 implies 4.95% upside from the current price of $279.19.
Bearish
- Trading Near 52-Week High: At $279.19, the stock is just 1.9% below its 52-week high of $284.64, leaving limited near-term upside and increasing the risk of a pullback if sentiment shifts.
- Modest Analyst Upside: The average analyst target of $293 implies only 4.95% upside, while the low target of $274 suggests a potential 1.86% downside. This narrow risk-reward profile may not justify new entry at current levels.
- Dependence on Global Lifestyle Segment: Global Lifestyle contributes $2.66B of the $3.42B total revenue (77.8%). Any slowdown in mobile device protection or consumer electronics services could significantly impact overall growth.
- Housing Market Sensitivity: The Global Housing segment, which added $769.8M in revenue, is exposed to mortgage rates and housing market conditions. A prolonged downturn could pressure this segment's profitability.
AIZ Technical Analysis
Assurant's stock is in a strong uptrend, with a 1-year price change of +49.06%, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's +18.19% over the same period. The current price of $279.19 sits near the top of its 52-week range, at approximately 98.1% of the high of $284.64, indicating robust momentum and investor optimism. This positioning near highs suggests the stock is trading with strong positive sentiment, though it also raises the risk of short-term overextension.
Beta
0.54
0.54x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-12.9%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$201-$304
Price range past year
Annual Return
+41.1%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | AIZ Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +5.8% | +2.8% |
| 3m | +23.7% | +4.2% |
| 6m | +21.8% | +11.3% |
| 1y | +41.1% | +21.5% |
| ytd | +24.7% | +12.7% |
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AIZ Fundamental Analysis
Assurant's revenue trajectory is accelerating, with Q1 2026 revenue of $3.42 billion, up 11.26% year-over-year, compared to a 5.6% growth rate in the prior year quarter. The Global Lifestyle segment, contributing $2.66 billion in revenue, is the primary growth driver, while Global Housing added $769.8 million. This multi-quarter trend shows consistent expansion, with revenue growing from $3.07 billion in Q1 2025 to $3.42 billion in Q1 2026, indicating a strengthening core business.
Quarterly Revenue
$3.4B
2026-03
Revenue YoY Growth
+11.3%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
77.5%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$1.5B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is AIZ Overvalued?
Given Assurant's positive net income, the trailing P/E ratio of 13.93x is the primary valuation metric, with a forward P/E of 12.41x, implying the market expects earnings growth. The gap between trailing and forward P/E suggests a modest 11% expected earnings increase, which is conservative given the company's recent growth. The PEG ratio of 0.74x indicates the stock is undervalued relative to its growth rate, supporting a favorable valuation outlook.
PE
13.9x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Mid-Range
5-Year PE Range 3x~25x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
8.7x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financially, Assurant carries a moderate debt-to-equity ratio of 0.376, which is manageable for an insurance company. However, the current ratio of 0.55 indicates potential liquidity concerns, though this is typical for insurers with high receivables. The company's operating margin of 8.49% is relatively thin, and any significant increase in claims or operational costs could pressure profitability. Revenue concentration in Global Lifestyle (77.8% of total) is a key risk, as a slowdown in mobile device protection could disproportionately impact earnings. Free cash flow of $1.45B provides a cushion, but the payout ratio of 19.3% suggests limited room for dividend growth if cash flows decline.
FAQ
The key risks for AIZ include: 1) Concentration risk in Global Lifestyle, which accounts for 77.8% of revenue; a slowdown in mobile device protection could significantly impact earnings. 2) Housing market sensitivity, as the Global Housing segment is tied to mortgage rates and property values. 3) Competitive pressures from tech companies entering the insurance space. 4) Interest rate risk, as rising rates could increase claims costs and reduce investment income. The most severe risk is a prolonged housing downturn combined with a slowdown in consumer electronics spending, which could lead to a 20-30% decline in the stock price.
The 12-month forecast for AIZ is moderately bullish. The base case, with a 50% probability, targets a price range of $285-$305, aligning with the average analyst target of $293. The bull case, with a 30% probability, targets $310-$330, driven by continued strong growth. The bear case, with a 20% probability, targets $240-$260, reflecting potential headwinds. The most likely scenario is the base case, assuming revenue growth remains around 10% and the company continues to execute on its strategic initiatives.
AIZ is undervalued based on its PEG ratio of 0.74x, which is below the typical threshold of 1.0x for fair value. The trailing P/E of 13.93x and forward P/E of 12.41x are attractive compared to the broader market and the company's own growth rate. The price-to-sales ratio of 0.95x and EV/EBITDA of 8.66x also suggest a reasonable valuation. The market appears to be pricing in modest earnings growth, but the company's recent acceleration in revenue (11.26% YoY) suggests the market may be underestimating its potential.
AIZ is a good buy for investors seeking a growth stock with defensive characteristics. The stock trades at a forward P/E of 12.41x and a PEG ratio of 0.74x, indicating it is undervalued relative to its growth rate. The average analyst target of $293 implies 4.95% upside, and the low beta of 0.555 provides downside protection. However, the stock is near its 52-week high, so investors should consider dollar-cost averaging or waiting for a pullback. The biggest risk is a slowdown in Global Lifestyle growth, which could lead to a de-rating.
AIZ is better suited for long-term investment due to its low beta (0.555), consistent growth, and dividend yield of 1.39%. The stock has a 49% 1-year return, but its low volatility makes it less attractive for short-term trading. The company's strong free cash flow and low payout ratio (19.3%) suggest potential for dividend growth, which is appealing for long-term income investors. A minimum holding period of 3-5 years is recommended to fully capture the benefits of its growth trajectory and compounding returns.