Amgen
AMGN
$336.45
+0.05%
Amgen Inc. is a global biotechnology leader focused on discovering, developing, manufacturing, and delivering innovative human therapeutics across a broad range of serious diseases, operating within the Drug Manufacturers - General industry. The company is distinguished as a market leader with a deep portfolio of flagship and newer launch products, including treatments for oncology, inflammation, bone health, cardiovascular disease, and rare conditions, further solidified by its strategic acquisition of Horizon Therapeutics. The current investor narrative is dominated by the significant regulatory and competitive implications of potential 100% drug import tariffs, which could create a major competitive moat for Amgen if it secures an exemption, alongside ongoing scrutiny of drug safety profiles as highlighted by a recent FDA warning for its rare disease drug Tavneos.…
AMGN
Amgen
$336.45
Related headlines
AMGN 12-Month Price Forecast
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Amgen's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $437.38 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.
Average Target
$437.38
13 analysts
Implied Upside
+30.0%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
13
covering this stock
Price Range
$269 - $437
Analyst target range
Amgen is covered by 13 analysts, with recent institutional ratings showing a mix of Buy, Hold/Neutral/Equal Weight, and Outperform actions, indicating a consensus that leans neutral to cautiously optimistic. The average target price is not explicitly provided in the data, so the implied upside or downside cannot be calculated; however, the distribution of recent actions includes firms like UBS and Argus maintaining Buy ratings, while others like Wells Fargo and Morgan Stanley maintain Equal Weight, signaling a lack of strong directional conviction. The target price range is also not provided in the dataset, but the recent news flow regarding tariffs and drug safety creates high uncertainty, which typically leads to a wider dispersion of analyst targets; the pattern of recent ratings shows no major downgrades, with most firms reaffirming their existing stances following key events.
Bulls vs Bears: AMGN Investment Factors
The evidence presents a balanced but tense picture. Bullish arguments center on strong cash generation, a reasonable forward valuation, and a potential regulatory moat from tariff exemptions. Bearish concerns highlight severe financial leverage, volatile earnings, and recent negative price momentum. Currently, the bear side has stronger near-term evidence, as reflected in the stock's sharp underperformance and high leverage. The single most important tension is the resolution of the tariff situation: confirmation of an exemption would be a major bullish catalyst, solidifying its competitive position, while inclusion could be a severe bearish shock, threatening margins and market share.
Bullish
- Strong Free Cash Flow & Dividend: Amgen generates robust free cash flow of $8.1 billion TTM, supporting a sustainable dividend with a payout ratio of 66.45% and a yield of 2.91%. This provides a solid income floor for investors and funds strategic initiatives.
- Attractive Forward Valuation: The stock trades at a forward P/E of 14.06x, a significant discount to its trailing P/E of 22.84x, implying the market expects strong earnings growth. This valuation is reasonable for a large-cap biotech with stable cash flows.
- Potential Tariff Exemption Moat: Recent news indicates Amgen is among companies that may secure an exemption from proposed 100% drug import tariffs. If confirmed, this would create a massive competitive advantage and protect its revenue base from a severe external threat.
- Solid Revenue Growth Trajectory: Q4 2025 revenue grew 8.91% YoY to $9.896 billion, with sequential acceleration from $8.149B in Q1. This demonstrates the company's ability to grow its top line despite a large base.
Bearish
- High Financial Leverage: Amgen carries a substantial debt burden with a debt-to-equity ratio of 6.31. This high leverage increases financial risk and interest expense, which was $653M in Q4, potentially limiting financial flexibility.
- Volatile & Declining Profitability: Net income is highly volatile, swinging from $3.216B in Q3 2025 to $1.333B in Q4. The quarterly net margin also fluctuated significantly, from 33.65% in Q3 to 13.47% in Q4, indicating earnings instability.
- Significant Recent Price Weakness: The stock is down 6.64% over the past month and 3.53% over three months, underperforming the SPY by -16.62% and -7.67% respectively. It trades 15.7% below its 52-week high, signaling negative momentum and investor concern.
- Regulatory & Safety Headwinds: A recent FDA warning about fatal liver risks linked to its rare disease drug Tavneos introduces significant commercial and regulatory risk. This could impact sales growth and increase scrutiny on the company's drug portfolio.
AMGN Technical Analysis
The prevailing price trend for Amgen has been a volatile uptrend followed by a recent sharp pullback. The stock posted a 1-year price change of +16.22%, indicating a positive longer-term trend, but it is currently trading at $329.82, which is only 30.4% above its 52-week low of $261.43 and 15.7% below its 52-week high of $391.29, positioning it in the lower half of its annual range and suggesting a significant retreat from recent highs. Recent momentum has turned sharply negative, diverging from the positive 1-year trend, with the stock down 6.64% over the past month and 3.53% over the past three months, signaling a potential trend reversal or a deep correction within the broader uptrend. Key technical support is clearly defined at the 52-week low area near $261, while resistance sits at the recent high near $391; a decisive break below the $261 support would signal a bearish breakdown, whereas reclaiming the $340-$350 zone is needed to stabilize the recent decline. The stock's recent underperformance is stark, with a 1-month relative strength of -16.62% versus the SPY, indicating it is acting as a significant laggard amid broader market strength.
Beta
0.43
0.43x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-16.6%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$261-$391
Price range past year
Annual Return
+24.4%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | AMGN Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | -3.8% | +8.2% |
| 3m | -8.1% | +9.0% |
| 6m | -0.1% | +10.5% |
| 1y | +24.4% | +26.5% |
| ytd | +2.7% | +8.9% |
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AMGN Fundamental Analysis
Amgen's revenue trajectory shows solid growth, with Q4 2025 revenue of $9.896 billion representing an 8.91% year-over-year increase, and the quarterly progression from $8.149B in Q1 to $9.896B in Q4 indicates sequential growth acceleration through the fiscal year. The company is profitable, reporting Q4 net income of $1.333 billion, with a robust gross margin of 81.91% for the quarter; however, profitability has been volatile on a quarterly basis, with net income swinging from $3.216B in Q3 to $1.333B in Q4, reflecting significant non-operating item impacts. The balance sheet carries substantial leverage with a debt-to-equity ratio of 6.31, but the company generates strong cash flows, evidenced by trailing twelve-month free cash flow of $8.1 billion and a current ratio of 1.14, providing adequate liquidity to service its debt and fund its dividend, which had a payout ratio of 66.45% based on valuation data.
Quarterly Revenue
$9.9B
2025-12
Revenue YoY Growth
+0.08%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
+0.81%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$8.1B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is AMGN Overvalued?
Given Amgen's positive net income, the primary valuation metric is the P/E ratio. The stock trades at a trailing P/E of 22.84x and a forward P/E of 14.06x based on estimated EPS; the significant discount of the forward multiple implies the market expects substantial earnings growth in the coming year. Compared to sector averages, Amgen's trailing P/E of 22.84x is difficult to contextualize without a provided industry average, but its Price/Sales ratio of 4.79x and EV/EBITDA of 13.99x offer alternative valuation lenses; the forward P/E of 14.06x appears reasonable for a large-cap biotech with stable cash flows. Historically, the current trailing P/E of 22.84x sits below the stock's own historical range seen in recent quarters, which has included figures as high as 56.17x in Q4 2024 and as low as 11.36x in Q1 2023, suggesting the current valuation is not stretched and may reflect a more conservative earnings multiple amid recent price weakness.
PE
22.8x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
High-End
5-Year PE Range -336x~75x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
14.0x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial & Operational Risks: Amgen's primary financial risk is its high leverage, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 6.31, which amplifies the impact of interest rate changes and economic downturns. While strong free cash flow of $8.1B provides coverage, the quarterly net income volatility—swinging over $1.8B between Q3 and Q4 2025—indicates earnings are susceptible to significant non-operating items, making future EPS less predictable. Furthermore, the recent FDA warning for Tavneos highlights ongoing regulatory and drug safety risks that could abruptly impact revenue from key growth products.
Market & Competitive Risks: The stock faces valuation compression risk if its forward growth fails to materialize to justify the current forward P/E of 14.06x. Its significant underperformance versus the SPY over the past one and three months (-16.62% and -7.67% relative strength) suggests it is being penalized in the current market environment, potentially due to sector rotation away from highly leveraged names. The looming threat of 100% drug import tariffs creates a binary competitive risk; failure to secure a confirmed exemption would place Amgen at a severe cost disadvantage versus exempted peers, directly threatening its market position.
Worst-Case Scenario: The worst-case scenario involves a chain of events where Amgen is not exempted from the proposed tariffs, triggering a sharp decline in international sales and compressed margins. Concurrently, the Tavneos safety concerns escalate into a significant label restriction or withdrawal, crippling a growth product. This could lead to missed earnings estimates, a credit rating review due to its high debt, and a dividend cut. Realistic downside could see the stock re-testing its 52-week low of $261.43, representing a potential loss of approximately -21% from the current price of $329.82.