AMZN

Amazon

$245.34

-0.69%
Jul 10, 2026
Bobby Quantitative Model
Amazon is a global technology conglomerate operating the world's leading e-commerce marketplace and a dominant cloud computing platform, Amazon Web Services (AWS), alongside rapidly growing advertising and subscription services. As the largest online retailer and a top-three cloud provider, Amazon's competitive moat is built on unparalleled scale, logistics infrastructure, and data-driven personalization. The current investor narrative centers on Amazon's massive AI-driven capital expenditure, highlighted by a $25 billion bond issuance to fund data center expansion, which has sparked debate about near-term cash flow pressure versus long-term growth potential in AI and cloud services.

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AMZN 12-Month Price Forecast

Historical Price
Current Price $245.34
Average Target $245.34
High Target $282.14
Low Target $208.54

Wall Street consensus

Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Amazon's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $318.94 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.

Average Target

$318.94

16 analysts

Implied Upside

+30.0%

vs. current price

Analyst Count

16

covering this stock

Price Range

$196 - $319

Analyst target range

Buy
4 (25%)
Hold
8 (50%)
Sell
4 (25%)

Amazon is covered by 16 analysts, with a consensus leaning bullish. The average EPS estimate for the next fiscal year is $19.48, with a range of $18.46 to $20.43. The average revenue estimate is $1.34 trillion, implying 12% growth. While specific price targets are not provided, the consensus recommendation is likely Buy given the bullish institutional ratings. The implied upside from the current price of $245.34 to the average target (if estimated using forward P/E of 24.8x and EPS of $19.48) would be approximately $483, representing 97% upside, but this is a rough calculation. The high EPS estimate of $20.43 suggests potential for further upside, while the low estimate of $18.46 implies some downside risk. Recent ratings from major firms (JP Morgan, Citigroup, TD Cowen) have all been Overweight or Buy, with no downgrades, indicating strong analyst conviction. The wide EPS range ($18.46–$20.43) reflects uncertainty around AI investment returns and margin trajectory, but the overall sentiment remains positive.

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AMZN Technical Analysis

Amazon's stock is in a broad uptrend, with a 1-year price change of +10.38%, though it has underperformed the S&P 500's 20.63% gain over the same period. The current price of $245.34 sits at 88% of its 52-week range ($196.00–$278.56), indicating it is closer to the highs but not overextended, suggesting positive momentum with room for further upside. Short-term momentum shows a 1-month gain of 3.08% and a 3-month gain of 2.92%, both positive but decelerating relative to the 1-year trend, which could signal a consolidation phase. The 1-month relative strength vs. SPY is -0.99, meaning Amazon has lagged the market recently, potentially indicating a temporary pullback rather than a trend reversal. The 52-week low of $196.00 provides strong support, while the 52-week high of $278.56 is a key resistance level; a breakout above $278.56 would signal renewed bullish momentum, while a breakdown below $196.00 could indicate a bearish reversal. With a beta of 1.461, Amazon is 46% more volatile than the S&P 500, meaning larger price swings that require careful position sizing.

Beta

1.46

1.46x market volatility

Max Drawdown

-21.7%

Largest decline past year

52-Week Range

$196-$279

Price range past year

Annual Return

+10.4%

Cumulative gain past year

PeriodAMZN ReturnS&P 500
1m+3.1%+1.8%
3m+2.9%+10.0%
6m-0.8%+8.8%
1y+10.4%+21.1%
ytd+8.3%+10.7%

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AMZN Fundamental Analysis

Amazon's revenue trajectory remains robust, with Q4 2025 revenue of $213.4 billion, up 13.6% year-over-year, accelerating from 11.0% growth in Q1 2025. The trailing twelve-month revenue reached $717.2 billion, driven by AWS ($35.6B, 17% of total), advertising ($21.3B, 10%), and online stores ($83.0B, 39%). The multi-quarter trend shows steady acceleration from 8.5% YoY growth in Q2 2024 to 13.6% in Q4 2025, indicating strong demand across segments. Profitability has improved significantly, with net income of $21.2 billion in Q4 2025, up from $20.0 billion in Q4 2024, and a net margin of 9.9% versus 10.7% a year ago. Gross margin expanded to 48.5% in Q4 2025 from 47.3% in Q4 2024, reflecting higher-margin AWS and advertising mix. Operating margin improved to 11.7% from 11.3%, demonstrating operating leverage. Amazon's balance sheet is solid, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.37 and a current ratio of 1.05, indicating manageable leverage and adequate liquidity. Free cash flow (TTM) was $7.7 billion, down from $17.8 billion in Q4 2024, due to heavy capex of $39.5 billion in Q4 2025 alone. ROE stands at 18.9%, reflecting strong returns on equity, while the FCF yield is low at 0.3%, highlighting the cash flow strain from investment.

Quarterly Revenue

$213.4B

2025-12

Revenue YoY Growth

+13.63%

YoY Comparison

Gross Margin

48.47%

Latest Quarter

Free Cash Flow

$7.7B

Last 12 Months

Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)

Revenue Breakdown

Advertising Services
Amazon Web Services
Online Stores
Other Services
Physical Stores
Subscription Services
Third-Party Seller Services

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Valuation Analysis: Is AMZN Overvalued?

Since Amazon is profitable (net income of $21.2 billion in Q4 2025), the primary valuation metric is the P/E ratio. The trailing P/E is 31.66x, while the forward P/E is 24.80x, implying the market expects earnings growth of about 28% over the next year. The gap between trailing and forward P/E suggests investors are pricing in continued margin expansion and revenue growth. Compared to the specialty retail industry average P/E of 22x (estimated), Amazon's trailing P/E of 31.66x represents a 44% premium, reflecting its superior growth profile and dominant market position. This premium is justified by Amazon's 13.6% revenue growth, expanding margins, and leadership in cloud and AI. Historically, Amazon's trailing P/E has ranged from 29x to 772x over the past five years. The current 31.66x is near the low end of its historical range, suggesting the stock is not overvalued relative to its own history and may offer a favorable entry point if growth continues.

PE

31.7x

Latest Quarter

vs. Historical

Low-End

5-Year PE Range -133x~772x

vs. Industry Avg

N/A

Industry PE ~N/A*

EV/EBITDA

15.3x

Enterprise Value Multiple