APLD

Applied Digital Corporation Common Stock

$33.06

-6.93%
Jul 2, 2026
Bobby Quantitative Model
Applied Digital Corporation designs, develops, and operates next-generation digital infrastructure across North America, providing data center hosting and high-performance computing (HPC) services primarily for cryptocurrency mining and AI workloads. The company distinguishes itself as an early mover in the AI infrastructure build-out, pivoting from crypto mining hosting to high-value HPC and AI cloud services. Investor attention is currently focused on Applied Digital's massive hyperscaler lease deals, including a $7.5 billion agreement announced in April 2026, which validates its AI infrastructure model but also raises concerns about execution risk and high leverage as the company scales rapidly.

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APLD 12-Month Price Forecast

Historical Price
Current Price $33.06
Average Target $33.06
High Target $38.019
Low Target $28.101000000000003

Wall Street consensus

Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Applied Digital Corporation Common Stock's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $42.98 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.

Average Target

$42.98

1 analysts

Implied Upside

+30.0%

vs. current price

Analyst Count

1

covering this stock

Price Range

$26 - $43

Analyst target range

Buy
0 (0%)
Hold
0 (0%)
Sell
1 (100%)

Insufficient analyst coverage available. Only 1 analyst provides estimates, with an average EPS estimate of $0.37 for the current fiscal year. The limited coverage implies that Applied Digital is a small-cap stock with relatively low institutional interest, which can lead to higher volatility and less efficient price discovery. The few ratings available from firms like B. Riley, Roth Capital, and Needham are all Buy or Outperform, suggesting that the analysts who do cover the stock are bullish, but the lack of broader consensus makes it difficult to gauge market sentiment. Investors should be cautious of the wide dispersion in estimates, with EPS ranging from $0.25 to $0.45 and revenue from $5.15 billion to $8.07 billion, reflecting high uncertainty about the company's growth trajectory.

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APLD Technical Analysis

Applied Digital's stock has experienced a dramatic uptrend over the past year, with a 1-year price change of +213.07%, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's +19.1% return. The current price of $33.06 sits at 59.5% of its 52-week range ($9.02 low to $50.725 high), indicating the stock has pulled back from its highs but remains well above its lows. This positioning suggests the stock is in a corrective phase within a broader uptrend, offering a potential entry point for momentum investors if support holds. Short-term momentum has turned sharply negative, with a 1-month price change of -30.92% and a 3-month change of +34.61%, creating a divergence where the 3-month trend remains positive but the 1-month trend signals a significant pullback. The relative strength versus the S&P 500 over 1 month is -29.67%, confirming underperformance, while the 3-month relative strength of +21.05% shows the longer-term trend is still intact. This divergence could indicate a temporary pullback within a secular uptrend, but the speed of the decline warrants caution. The 52-week low of $9.02 provides a critical support level, while the 52-week high of $50.725 represents major resistance. A breakout above $50.725 would signal a resumption of the uptrend, while a breakdown below $9.02 would negate the long-term bullish case. With a beta of 5.68, the stock is 468% more volatile than the S&P 500, meaning it is highly sensitive to market moves and requires strict risk management.

Beta

5.68

5.68x market volatility

Max Drawdown

-50.3%

Largest decline past year

52-Week Range

$9-$51

Price range past year

Annual Return

+213.1%

Cumulative gain past year

PeriodAPLD ReturnS&P 500
1m-30.9%+1.0%
3m+34.6%+13.0%
6m+17.6%+7.7%
1y+213.1%+19.1%
ytd+17.6%+9.2%

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APLD Fundamental Analysis

Revenue has grown rapidly, with the most recent quarter (November 30, 2025) reporting $126.6 million, a 98.2% year-over-year increase, accelerating from $64.2 million in the prior quarter and $38.0 million a year ago. This explosive growth is driven by the Data Center Hosting and HPC segments, as the company capitalizes on AI infrastructure demand. However, the revenue base is still small, and the growth trajectory depends on successful execution of large-scale data center projects. The company remains unprofitable, with a net loss of $17.5 million in the latest quarter and a trailing twelve-month net income of -$175.1 million. Gross margin improved to 20.6% from 13.4% in the prior quarter, but operating margin remains deeply negative at -24.5%. The net margin of -13.8% indicates the company is still far from profitability, though losses are narrowing as revenue scales. Applied Digital has a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.11 and a current ratio of 0.77, indicating a leveraged balance sheet with liquidity concerns. Free cash flow is deeply negative at -$567.9 million in the latest quarter, driven by massive capital expenditures of $552.1 million for data center construction. The company relies heavily on external financing, as evidenced by $2.27 billion in net cash from financing activities in the quarter, primarily from debt and equity issuance. ROE is -36.5%, reflecting persistent losses and high leverage.

Quarterly Revenue

$126589000.0B

2025-11

Revenue YoY Growth

+0.98%

YoY Comparison

Gross Margin

+0.20%

Latest Quarter

Free Cash Flow

$-1.3B

Last 12 Months

Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)

Revenue Breakdown

Mining Segment

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Valuation Analysis: Is APLD Overvalued?

Since Applied Digital has negative net income (TTM net income of -$175.1 million), we use the price-to-sales (PS) ratio as the primary valuation metric. The trailing PS ratio is 6.38x, while forward PS (based on estimated revenue of $6.93 billion) is approximately 1.98x, implying the market expects massive revenue growth. The wide gap between trailing and forward PS suggests investors are pricing in aggressive expansion. Compared to the Information Technology Services industry average PS ratio of approximately 3.5x (estimated), Applied Digital's trailing PS of 6.38x represents a 82% premium. This premium may be justified by the company's triple-digit revenue growth rate and its strategic position in AI infrastructure, but it also embeds high expectations that leave little room for error. Historically, Applied Digital's PS ratio has ranged from near zero (pre-revenue) to over 60x in recent quarters. The current PS of 6.38x is near the lower end of its historical range over the past two years, suggesting the stock has de-rated from its peak multiples. This could indicate that the market is becoming more skeptical of the company's path to profitability, or that the stock is a value opportunity if growth materializes as expected.

PE

-5.9x

Latest Quarter

vs. Historical

High-End

5-Year PE Range -379x~-2x

vs. Industry Avg

N/A

Industry PE ~N/A*

EV/EBITDA

-21.4x

Enterprise Value Multiple