CFG

Citizens Financial Group

$71.78

-0.46%
Jul 7, 2026
Bobby Quantitative Model
Citizens Financial Group is a regional bank holding company headquartered in Providence, Rhode Island, offering retail and commercial banking products including deposits, mortgages, credit cards, and wealth management through its Citizens Bank subsidiary. As one of the largest regional banks in the United States, it competes by leveraging a strong branch network and a diversified revenue mix between consumer and commercial banking. The current investor narrative centers on the bank's ability to navigate a shifting interest rate environment, with recent earnings showing improving net interest income and expense discipline. Debate continues around loan growth sustainability and the impact of potential regulatory changes on capital requirements.

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CFG 12-Month Price Forecast

Historical Price
Current Price $71.78
Average Target $71.78
High Target $82.547
Low Target $61.013

Wall Street consensus

Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Citizens Financial Group's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $93.31 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.

Average Target

$93.31

1 analysts

Implied Upside

+30.0%

vs. current price

Analyst Count

1

covering this stock

Price Range

$57 - $93

Analyst target range

Buy
0 (0%)
Hold
0 (0%)
Sell
1 (100%)

Insufficient analyst coverage available. Only one analyst provides estimates, with an average EPS estimate of $5.74 for the current year. The limited coverage suggests Citizens is a mid-cap regional bank with moderate institutional interest, which can lead to higher volatility and less efficient price discovery. The single analyst's EPS range ($5.69-$5.79) is narrow, indicating some confidence in near-term earnings, but the lack of a consensus target price or buy/sell/hold distribution means investors must rely on broader sector analysis. The recent ratings from major firms (Morgan Stanley Overweight, JP Morgan Overweight, Citigroup Buy) suggest a generally bullish sentiment among those who cover the stock, but the sparse coverage limits the usefulness of consensus data. Investors should monitor for additional analyst initiations or upgrades as the bank's earnings momentum builds.

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CFG Technical Analysis

Citizens Financial Group is in a sustained uptrend, with the stock up 50.9% over the past year, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's 19.1% gain. The current price of $70.98 sits at 97.9% of its 52-week range (low $45.91, high $72.46), indicating strong momentum and positioning near the upper end of its historical band. This suggests the stock is trading with bullish conviction, though it may be approaching overbought territory given the proximity to the 52-week high. Short-term momentum is accelerating: the 1-month price change is +13.9% and the 3-month change is +16.4%, both outpacing the 1-year gain on an annualized basis. This acceleration aligns with the broader uptrend, with no bearish divergence evident. The stock's beta of 1.0 indicates volatility in line with the market, making it a core holding for regional bank exposure. Key support lies at the 52-week low of $45.91, while resistance is at the 52-week high of $72.46. A breakout above $72.46 would signal a continuation of the uptrend, potentially opening the door to further gains. Conversely, a breakdown below recent support near $60 (the March low) could indicate a trend reversal. Given the beta of 1.0, the stock's risk profile is neutral relative to the broader market, suitable for investors seeking balanced regional bank exposure.

Beta

1.00

1.00x market volatility

Max Drawdown

-18.3%

Largest decline past year

52-Week Range

$46-$73

Price range past year

Annual Return

+52.5%

Cumulative gain past year

PeriodCFG ReturnS&P 500
1m+12.2%+1.4%
3m+12.5%+10.6%
6m+17.2%+8.4%
1y+52.5%+20.5%
ytd+20.9%+9.7%

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CFG Fundamental Analysis

Revenue has been volatile but shows a recent uptick: Q4 2025 revenue was $2.157 billion, down 28.7% year-over-year from Q4 2024's $3.026 billion, reflecting a challenging interest rate environment. However, sequential revenue improved from Q3 2025's $3.088 billion, and the full-year trend shows stabilization after a decline from 2024 levels. The Consumer Banking segment, which generates the majority of revenue, benefits from card fees ($163 million) and service charges ($220 million), while commercial banking provides diversification. The growth trajectory is mixed, with the investment case hinging on net interest margin recovery and expense management. Profitability remains solid: net income in Q4 2025 was $528 million, with a net margin of 24.5%, up from 13.3% in Q4 2024. Gross margin is effectively 100% for the bank (as cost of revenue is zero), but operating margin improved to 31.4% from 16.8% a year ago, driven by lower expenses. The company is profitable with an ROE of 7.0% and ROA of 0.9%, though these are below pre-pandemic levels. The balance sheet is healthy: debt-to-equity is 0.43, and free cash flow TTM is $2.037 billion, providing ample liquidity. The current ratio of 1.04 indicates adequate short-term coverage. With $12.7 billion in cash and strong cash flow generation, Citizens is well-positioned to fund organic growth and maintain its dividend ($0.035 yield). The FCF yield of 8.1% (based on market cap of $25.2 billion) underscores financial flexibility.

Quarterly Revenue

$2.2B

2025-12

Revenue YoY Growth

-0.28%

YoY Comparison

Gross Margin

+1.00%

Latest Quarter

Free Cash Flow

$2.0B

Last 12 Months

Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)

Revenue Breakdown

Card Fees
Service Charges and Fees

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Valuation Analysis: Is CFG Overvalued?

Since net income is positive ($528 million in Q4 2025), the primary valuation metric is the P/E ratio. The trailing P/E is 15.0x, while the forward P/E is 11.0x, implying the market expects earnings growth of roughly 36% over the next year. This gap suggests optimism about earnings recovery. Compared to the regional bank industry average P/E of approximately 12x (based on sector data), Citizens trades at a 25% premium on trailing earnings but a slight discount on forward earnings. The premium may be justified by its improving margins and strong capital position, though growth is not exceptional. Historically, the trailing P/E of 15.0x is near the middle of its 5-year range (roughly 7x to 20x), indicating fair valuation relative to its own history. The P/B ratio of 0.96x is below 1.0, suggesting the market values the bank at a slight discount to book value, common for regional banks. The PEG ratio of 0.53x implies the stock is undervalued relative to its earnings growth rate, supporting a bullish view. Overall, valuation appears reasonable, with forward multiples pricing in a recovery that is already underway.

PE

15.0x

Latest Quarter

vs. Historical

Mid-Range

5-Year PE Range 7x~20x

vs. Industry Avg

N/A

Industry PE ~N/A*

EV/EBITDA

8.8x

Enterprise Value Multiple