Church & Dwight
CHD
$98.81
+1.16%
Church & Dwight Co., Inc. is a leading consumer packaged goods company, best known as the world's largest producer of baking soda and the owner of iconic brands such as Arm & Hammer, OxiClean, Batiste, and TheraBreath. Operating in the Household & Personal Products industry, the company holds a strong market position as a value-oriented innovator, leveraging its heritage brand equity to expand into adjacent categories like laundry, oral care, and personal care. The current investor narrative centers on the company's ability to sustain organic growth through product innovation and strategic acquisitions (e.g., Touchland hand sanitizer) while navigating input cost inflation and shifting consumer spending patterns. With a market cap of approximately $23.1 billion and a diversified portfolio that generates about 80% of sales from the U.S., Church & Dwight is viewed as a defensive growth play, though recent quarterly results have shown only modest revenue growth, prompting debate about its near-term momentum.…
CHD
Church & Dwight
$98.81
Investment Opinion: Should I buy CHD Today?
Rating: Hold. Church & Dwight is a quality company with a strong brand portfolio and stable earnings, but its recent growth trajectory is lackluster, and the valuation offers limited upside. The analyst consensus is Buy with an average target of $103.84, implying ~5% upside, which is modest. Given the flat revenue growth and the stock's underperformance relative to the market, a Hold rating is appropriate until there is evidence of renewed growth.
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CHD 12-Month Price Forecast
The AI assessment is neutral, reflecting a balanced risk-reward profile. The company's defensive nature and stable earnings provide a floor, but the lack of growth catalysts limits upside. The stock is fairly valued, and the market is pricing in modest expectations. To upgrade to bullish, we would need to see evidence of accelerating revenue growth, such as a quarter with 3%+ YoY growth, or a significant margin expansion. Conversely, a downgrade to bearish would occur if revenue growth turns negative or if the gross margin falls below 40%.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Church & Dwight's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $104.37 and implied upside of +5.6% versus the current price.
Average Target
$104.37
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+5.6%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$77 - $115
Analyst target range
The target price range of $77.00 to $115.00 is quite wide, reflecting significant uncertainty about the company's future performance. The high target likely assumes successful execution of innovation and acquisitions, leading to accelerated growth and multiple expansion. The low target may reflect concerns about continued market share losses, input cost inflation, or a recession impacting consumer spending. Recent institutional ratings show a mix of Overweight, Neutral, and even an Underweight from Barclays, suggesting that sentiment is not uniformly bullish. The presence of both Overweight and Underweight ratings indicates a lack of consensus, which could lead to higher volatility in the stock price.
Bulls vs Bears: CHD Investment Factors
Church & Dwight presents a classic defensive growth profile with strong brands, solid profitability, and a reasonable valuation. However, the recent flat revenue growth and relative underperformance versus the market highlight concerns about its ability to accelerate top-line expansion. The bull case rests on the company's ability to leverage its brand portfolio and acquisitions like Touchland to reignite growth, while the bear case focuses on valuation risk if growth remains stagnant. Currently, the evidence slightly favors the bull side given the company's stable earnings and reasonable PEG, but the key tension is whether the company can return to meaningful organic growth, which would justify its premium multiple. If growth remains elusive, the stock could face de-rating.
Bullish
- Strong brand portfolio and market position: Church & Dwight owns iconic brands like Arm & Hammer, OxiClean, and Batiste, which together account for ~70% of sales. This brand equity provides pricing power and customer loyalty, supporting stable demand even in economic downturns.
- Solid profitability and cash generation: The company maintains a gross margin of ~44.7% and an operating margin of ~17.4%, with TTM free cash flow of $1.07 billion. This financial strength enables continued investment in innovation and acquisitions, such as the recent Touchland hand sanitizer deal.
- Reasonable valuation with PEG near 1: With a trailing PE of 27.6x and forward PE of 24.4x, the stock trades at a PEG ratio of 1.01, suggesting it is fairly valued relative to its expected earnings growth. This is typical for a stable consumer staples company and leaves room for upside if growth accelerates.
- Defensive characteristics with low beta: The stock has a beta of 0.47, significantly lower than the market, making it a defensive play that can provide portfolio stability during market volatility. Its 1.41% dividend yield adds an income component.
Bearish
- Flat revenue growth in latest quarter: Q1 2026 revenue was $1.469 billion, up only 0.15% year-over-year, a sharp deceleration from prior quarters. This suggests the company is struggling to drive top-line growth in a mature market, which could limit earnings expansion.
- Underperformance relative to market: Over the past year, CHD gained only 5.37% compared to the S&P 500's 18.19%, a relative underperformance of ~12.8 percentage points. This indicates that investors are not rewarding the stock despite its defensive qualities.
- High valuation with limited growth: The trailing PE of 27.6x is elevated for a company with near-zero revenue growth. If earnings growth fails to materialize, the stock could face multiple compression, leading to downside risk.
- Mixed analyst sentiment: While the consensus is Buy, there is a wide target range ($77-$115) and ratings include Overweight, Neutral, and even Underweight from Barclays. This lack of consensus suggests uncertainty about the company's growth prospects.
CHD Technical Analysis
Church & Dwight's stock is currently in a recovery phase within a broader sideways-to-upward trend. Over the past year, the stock has gained 5.37%, but this lags the S&P 500's 18.19% return, indicating relative underperformance. The current price of $98.81 sits at 83.4% of the 52-week range (between $81.33 low and $106.04 high), suggesting the stock is closer to its highs but not overextended. The 52-week low of $81.33 was set in the past year, and the stock has rebounded strongly from that level, but it remains below its 52-week high of $106.04, which acts as a key resistance level.
Beta
0.47
0.47x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-17.6%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$81-$106
Price range past year
Annual Return
+5.4%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | CHD Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +1.6% | +0.3% |
| 3m | +2.9% | +4.0% |
| 6m | +2.7% | +8.3% |
| 1y | +5.4% | +20.2% |
| ytd | +19.6% | +9.6% |
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CHD Fundamental Analysis
Church & Dwight's revenue trajectory has been essentially flat, with the most recent quarter (Q1 2026) reporting revenue of $1.469 billion, a mere 0.15% increase year-over-year. This marks a deceleration from prior quarters: Q2 2025 revenue was $1.506 billion, Q3 2025 was $1.586 billion, and Q4 2025 was $1.644 billion, showing a sequential decline in the latest quarter. The company's growth is being driven primarily by its power brands (Arm & Hammer, OxiClean, etc.), which account for ~70% of sales, but volume growth has been offset by price competition and category softness. The flat revenue growth raises concerns about the company's ability to accelerate top-line expansion in a mature market, though the acquisition of Touchland could provide incremental growth.
Quarterly Revenue
$1.5B
2026-03
Revenue YoY Growth
+0.1%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
46.4%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$1.1B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is CHD Overvalued?
Given that Church & Dwight is profitable (net income of $216.3 million in Q1 2026), the PE ratio is the most appropriate valuation metric. The trailing PE is 27.58x, while the forward PE is 24.41x, implying that the market expects earnings growth of about 13% over the next year. This forward discount suggests optimism about margin recovery and cost savings. The PEG ratio of 1.01x indicates that the stock is fairly valued relative to its expected earnings growth rate, which is typical for a stable consumer staples company.
PE
27.6x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Low-End
5-Year PE Range 22x~39x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
17.0x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial & Operational Risks: Church & Dwight carries a moderate debt load with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.55, which is manageable but could become a concern if interest rates rise. The company's revenue is highly concentrated in the U.S. (80% of sales), making it vulnerable to domestic economic downturns. The flat revenue growth in Q1 2026 (0.15% YoY) indicates a lack of momentum, and if this persists, it could pressure margins and cash flow. Additionally, the company's reliance on a few power brands for ~70% of sales creates concentration risk; any brand-specific issue could significantly impact results.
FAQ
The key risks of holding CHD include: 1) Financial risk: The company has a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.55, which is manageable but could become a burden if interest rates rise. 2) Competitive risk: The household products market is highly competitive, and CHD could lose market share to larger players like P&G. 3) Macro risk: With 80% of sales from the U.S., a domestic recession could hurt demand. 4) Company-specific risk: The reliance on a few power brands for ~70% of sales means any brand issue could significantly impact results. The most severe risk is a prolonged period of stagnant revenue, which could lead to a de-rating and a decline toward the 52-week low of $81.33.
The CHD stock forecast over the next 12 months is for a modest upside, with the base case targeting the analyst average of $103.84, representing about 5% upside. The bull case, with a 25% probability, could see the stock reach $115 if growth accelerates, while the bear case, also with a 25% probability, could see it decline to $81.33 if growth stagnates and the market de-rates the stock. The most likely scenario is the base case, which assumes continued low-single-digit growth and stable margins. Investors should monitor quarterly earnings for signs of acceleration or deterioration.
CHD stock is fairly valued based on its PEG ratio of 1.01, which indicates that the price is in line with its expected earnings growth. The trailing PE of 27.6x is slightly above the market average, but this is typical for a consumer staples company with stable earnings. The forward PE of 24.4x suggests the market expects earnings growth of about 13%, which is reasonable. Compared to its own history, the stock is trading near the middle of its 52-week range, suggesting it is neither overvalued nor undervalued. The market is pricing in modest growth, and any acceleration or deceleration could shift the valuation.
CHD is a good stock to buy for investors seeking a defensive, income-generating holding with a strong brand portfolio. The stock offers a dividend yield of 1.41% and has a low beta of 0.47, providing stability in volatile markets. However, the upside is limited, with the average analyst target of $103.84 implying only ~5% upside from the current price of $98.81. The main risk is the flat revenue growth, which could lead to valuation compression if not addressed. Therefore, it is a good buy for long-term investors who value stability over high growth, but not for those seeking aggressive capital appreciation.
CHD is more suitable for long-term investment due to its defensive characteristics and stable earnings. The stock has a low beta of 0.47, making it less volatile than the market, and it pays a modest dividend, providing a steady income stream. The company's strong brand portfolio and consistent cash flow support long-term value creation, but the near-term growth prospects are limited, making it less attractive for short-term traders seeking quick gains. A minimum holding period of 3-5 years is recommended to ride out market fluctuations and benefit from the company's gradual growth and dividend compounding.