Church & Dwight Co., Inc.
CHD
$92.85
0Church & Dwight Co., Inc. is a leading global producer of baking soda and a diversified consumer goods company in the Household & Personal Products industry. It is defined by its powerful Arm & Hammer brand and a portfolio of essential products, leveraging its brand strength and market position in defensive categories.…
CHD
Church & Dwight Co., Inc.
$92.85
Investment Opinion: Should I buy CHD Today?
Based on a synthesis of the fundamental data, valuation, and analyst outlook, the objective assessment for CHD is a Hold. The company's strong brand equity, solid balance sheet, and high returns on capital are positive, but these are counterbalanced by recent earnings volatility and a full valuation. The stock appears fairly valued with a PEG ratio near 1.0, suggesting limited near-term upside without a re-acceleration in earnings growth or multiple expansion.
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CHD 12-Month Price Forecast
The analysis suggests a balanced risk/reward. The stock's quality is underpinned by strong brands and cash flow, but its premium valuation and recent operational softness warrant caution, leading to a neutral stance.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Church & Dwight Co., Inc.'s 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $120.70 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.
Average Target
$120.70
7 analysts
Implied Upside
+30.0%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
7
covering this stock
Price Range
$74 - $121
Analyst target range
Wall Street analyst coverage for CHD is active, with seven analysts providing estimates. The consensus estimated EPS for the period is $4.70, with a range from $4.64 to $4.96. Estimated average revenue is approximately $7.14 billion. Recent institutional ratings from firms like Jefferies (Buy), Wells Fargo (Overweight), and Morgan Stanley (Equal-Weight) indicate a generally neutral to positive outlook, though a specific consensus target price was not provided in the data.
Bulls vs Bears: CHD Investment Factors
Church & Dwight benefits from a strong defensive brand portfolio and robust financial health, but faces headwinds from recent margin compression and a relatively high valuation. The stock's recent pullback offers a more attractive entry point, but investors must weigh stable cash flows against modest growth prospects.
Bullish
- Strong Brand Portfolio: Arm & Hammer and other leading brands provide stable revenue in defensive categories.
- Solid Financial Health: Low debt-to-equity (0.55) and strong free cash flow ($1.09B TTM).
- High Return on Equity: ROE of 18.4% indicates effective use of shareholder capital.
- Positive Analyst Sentiment: Recent ratings include Buy and Overweight from major firms.
Bearish
- Recent Profitability Decline: Q4 net margin fell to 8.7% from 11.5% in Q3.
- High Valuation Multiples: Trailing P/E of 27.6 and EV/EBITDA of 17.0 are elevated.
- Recent Price Weakness: Stock down 11% in past month, underperforming S&P 500.
- Volatile Quarterly Earnings: Net income dropped from $182M to $144M last quarter.
CHD Technical Analysis
The stock's overall trend over the past six months shows a significant recovery, rising from a low around $81.80 in late October 2025 to a peak above $105 in late February 2026, before pulling back to $93.32 as of March 31, 2026. Short-term performance has been weak, with the price declining 11.01% over the past month, underperforming the S&P 500's -5.25% return. However, the 3-month performance remains positive with an 11.29% gain, significantly outperforming the broader market's -4.63% change. The current price of $93.32 sits near the lower end of its 52-week range of $81.33 to $113.91, representing approximately 18.1% below the yearly high. No RSI data was provided for further momentum analysis.
Beta
0.43
0.43x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-27.9%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$81-$114
Price range past year
Annual Return
-14.3%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | CHD Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | -9.9% | -3.6% |
| 3m | +12.4% | -4.0% |
| 6m | +5.6% | -2.0% |
| 1y | -14.3% | +16.2% |
| ytd | +12.4% | -3.8% |
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CHD Fundamental Analysis
Revenue in Q4 2025 was $1.644 billion, showing a 3.9% year-over-year growth from the same quarter in 2024. Profitability has been volatile; the Q4 2025 net margin was 8.7%, a decline from the 11.5% net margin in Q3 2025, and the quarterly net income of $143.5 million was lower than the $182.2 million in the prior quarter. Financial health appears stable with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.55 and a current ratio of 1.07, though the company generated strong trailing twelve-month free cash flow of $1.093 billion. Operational efficiency is solid, with a return on equity (ROE) of 18.4% and a return on assets (ROA) of 8.2%, indicating effective use of shareholder capital and company assets.
Quarterly Revenue
$1.6B
2025-12
Revenue YoY Growth
+0.03%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
+0.45%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$1.1B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is CHD Overvalued?
Given the company's positive net income, the primary valuation metric is the trailing P/E ratio, which stands at 27.6. The forward P/E is slightly lower at 23.1. The PEG ratio of 1.02 suggests the stock is fairly valued relative to its earnings growth expectations. Other valuation multiples include a Price/Sales ratio of 3.28 and an EV/EBITDA of 17.0. No industry average comparison data was provided in the valuation inputs for a peer assessment.
PE
27.6x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
High-End
5-Year PE Range -85x~40x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
17.0x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
The primary risks for CHD stem from its operational execution and valuation. Profitability has shown volatility, with the net margin declining significantly in the latest quarter, indicating potential pressure from input costs or competitive pricing. A trailing P/E of 27.6 is high for a consumer staples company, making the stock vulnerable to multiple compression if growth disappoints. Furthermore, while the company operates in defensive categories, its significant underperformance against the S&P 500 over the past year (-31% relative strength) suggests it is not immune to broader market sentiment and may struggle to regain momentum. The low beta of 0.43 indicates lower volatility than the market, but this also may limit upside participation in strong bull markets.
FAQ
Key risks include: 1) Profitability volatility, as seen in the Q4 2025 net margin decline to 8.7%. 2) Valuation risk, with high multiples that could contract if growth slows. 3) Competitive pressures in the consumer goods sector impacting pricing power. 4) Despite its defensive nature, the stock has significantly underperformed the market over the past year.
The 12-month outlook is mixed with a base case target range of $93-$105, implying modest upside from the current $93.32. This is based on the company hitting consensus EPS of $4.70 and maintaining its current forward P/E multiple. The bull case (25% probability) sees a return to the 52-week high near $114, while the bear case (15% probability) could see a retest of support near the 52-week low of $81.33.
CHD appears fairly valued. Its PEG ratio of 1.02 suggests the stock price is in line with its expected earnings growth. While the trailing P/E of 27.6 seems high for a staples company, the forward P/E of 23.1 is more reasonable. The valuation is not cheap, but it reflects the company's strong market position and consistent cash flow generation.
CHD is a Hold at its current price. It is a high-quality company in a defensive sector with strong brands like Arm & Hammer and solid financials (ROE 18.4%, D/E 0.55). However, its elevated P/E ratio of 27.6 and recent earnings volatility suggest limited near-term upside, making it more suitable for patient investors seeking stability over aggressive growth.
CHD is more suitable for a long-term, income-oriented portfolio. Its low beta (0.43) and defensive product lineup provide stability, and it pays a modest dividend (yield ~1.4%). The short-term outlook is clouded by valuation and margin concerns, suggesting volatility may persist. Long-term investors can benefit from the company's durable brands and cash flow, allowing time for operational execution to improve.