CMI

Cummins

$0.00

-3.02%
Jul 2, 2026
Bobby Quantitative Model
Cummins Inc. is a global leader in designing, manufacturing, and distributing diesel and natural gas engines, powertrain components, and power generation systems for heavy-duty trucks, construction equipment, and industrial applications. The company holds a dominant market position as a premier engine supplier, uniquely competing with its own heavy-duty truck manufacturer customers who also produce engines. The current investor narrative is heavily focused on the company's strategic transition towards new energy technologies, including its Accelera segment for zero-emissions solutions, and its role in powering the surging demand for data center backup power, as highlighted by recent industry news analyzing the AI-driven power infrastructure boom.

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CMI 12-Month Price Forecast

Historical Price
Current Price $661.7
Average Target $661.7
High Target $760.955
Low Target $562.445

Wall Street consensus

Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Cummins's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $0.00 and implied upside of — versus the current price.

Average Target

$0.00

11 analysts

Implied Upside

vs. current price

Analyst Count

11

covering this stock

Price Range

$0 - $0

Analyst target range

Buy
3 (27%)
Hold
5 (46%)
Sell
3 (27%)

Cummins is covered by 11 analysts, and the institutional sentiment is predominantly bullish, as evidenced by recent actions from firms like Freedom Broker upgrading to 'Buy' and Barclays and Wells Fargo maintaining 'Overweight' ratings. The consensus recommendation among recent ratings leans towards Buy/Outperform, though specific distribution data is not provided. Analyst estimates point to an average EPS forecast of $39.24, with a range from $30.59 to $44.83, and an average revenue estimate of $43.82 billion. The target price range is not explicitly provided in the data, but the existence of 11 analysts and detailed EPS projections indicates robust coverage. The wide spread between the low and high EPS estimates ($14.24 difference) signals significant uncertainty or divergent views on the company's future earnings power, potentially tied to the cyclicality of its core markets and the growth trajectory of its new energy divisions. A tight clustering of targets would indicate stronger conviction, whereas this range reflects ongoing debate about the company's prospects.

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CMI Technical Analysis

The stock is in a powerful, sustained uptrend, evidenced by a 111.56% gain over the past year, culminating in a current price of $685.87, which positions it at approximately 98% of its 52-week high of $737.76. This positioning near the range's apex signals strong momentum but also raises concerns about potential overextension and vulnerability to a pullback. Recent momentum shows acceleration, with the stock gaining 31.08% over the past three months and 2.70% over the past month, significantly outperforming the S&P 500, which returned 14.97% and -2.86% over the same periods, respectively. This consistent outperformance, with a relative strength of 16.11 over three months, confirms the stock's leadership within the current market cycle. Key technical levels are clearly defined, with immediate resistance at the 52-week high of $737.76 and support at the 52-week low of $322.45. A decisive breakout above resistance would signal a continuation of the bullish trend, while a failure could lead to a consolidation phase. The stock's beta of 1.24 indicates it is 24% more volatile than the broader market, a critical factor for risk management given its elevated price level and recent 5.73% single-day drop from the previous close.

Beta

1.22

1.22x market volatility

Max Drawdown

-15.5%

Largest decline past year

52-Week Range

$325-$738

Price range past year

Annual Return

+98.4%

Cumulative gain past year

PeriodCMI ReturnS&P 500
1m-1.6%-1.3%
3m+20.4%+13.6%
6m+26.8%+9.0%
1y+98.4%+19.1%
ytd+26.8%+9.2%

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CMI Fundamental Analysis

Revenue growth has been modest but positive, with Q4 2025 revenue of $8.54 billion representing a 1.05% year-over-year increase. However, examining the quarterly sequence from Q1 to Q4 2025 reveals a trend of deceleration, with revenues of $8.17B, $8.64B, $8.32B, and $8.54B, suggesting potential cyclical headwinds or normalization after strong periods. The Components ($2.45B) and Distribution ($3.29B) segments are the largest revenue contributors, indicating the importance of aftermarket and parts businesses. Profitability remains robust, with Q4 2025 net income of $593 million and a gross margin of 22.86%. The net margin for the quarter was 6.95%, and the trailing twelve-month operating margin stands at 11.48%. While gross margins have fluctuated quarterly (from 26.36% in Q1 to 22.86% in Q4), the company maintains solid profitability, though margin compression in the most recent quarter warrants monitoring for inflationary or competitive pressures. The balance sheet and cash flow position are strong, with a healthy current ratio of 1.76, a manageable debt-to-equity ratio of 0.66, and a robust return on equity of 23.02%. Most importantly, the company generates substantial internal cash, with free cash flow over the trailing twelve months of $2.39 billion, providing ample liquidity to fund investments, dividends (payout ratio of 37.1%), and strategic initiatives without excessive reliance on external financing.

Quarterly Revenue

$8.5B

2025-12

Revenue YoY Growth

+0.01%

YoY Comparison

Gross Margin

+0.22%

Latest Quarter

Free Cash Flow

$2.4B

Last 12 Months

Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)

Revenue Breakdown

Accelera
Components
Distribution
Engine
Power Systems

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Valuation Analysis: Is CMI Overvalued?

Given a positive net income of $593 million, the primary valuation metric is the Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio. The stock trades at a trailing P/E of 24.76x and a forward P/E of 20.22x. The forward multiple being lower than the trailing multiple implies the market anticipates earnings growth, with analysts projecting an average EPS of $39.24 for the coming period. Compared to sector averages, Cummins trades at a premium. Its trailing P/E of 24.76x is above the typical industrial machinery average (often in the high teens to low 20s), and its Price-to-Sales ratio of 2.09x and EV/EBITDA of 14.02x also suggest an elevated valuation. This premium is likely justified by the company's market-leading position, strong ROE of 23.02%, and strategic pivot into high-growth energy transition markets. Historically, the current trailing P/E of 24.76x sits well above the low end of its historical range observed in recent years (e.g., 12.67x in Q2 2025) and is approaching levels seen during peak profitability cycles. Trading near the upper end of its own historical valuation band suggests the market is pricing in optimistic expectations for future growth and margin stability, leaving little room for operational missteps.

PE

24.8x

Latest Quarter

vs. Historical

High-End

5-Year PE Range -6x~30x

vs. Industry Avg

N/A

Industry PE ~N/A*

EV/EBITDA

14.0x

Enterprise Value Multiple