e.l.f. Cosmetics
ELF
$78.75
+6.42%
e.l.f. Beauty, Inc. is a multi-brand beauty company operating in the Household & Personal Products industry, offering inclusive, accessible, clean, vegan, and cruelty-free cosmetics and skin care products under its flagship e.l.f. Cosmetics brand. The company has established itself as a disruptive, digitally-native player in the mass beauty segment, leveraging a direct-to-consumer model and social media savvy to capture significant market share, particularly among younger demographics. The current investor narrative is sharply divided between those betting on a continued growth story driven by strong brand momentum and market share gains, and those concerned about a sharp valuation reset and margin pressures, as highlighted by a recent earnings beat that was accompanied by forward guidance that disappointed the market, leading to significant stock volatility.…
ELF
e.l.f. Cosmetics
$78.75
Related headlines
ELF 12-Month Price Forecast
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on e.l.f. Cosmetics's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $102.38 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.
Average Target
$102.38
2 analysts
Implied Upside
+30.0%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
2
covering this stock
Price Range
$63 - $102
Analyst target range
Analyst coverage for ELF appears limited, with data indicating only 2 analysts providing estimates, which suggests the stock may have lower institutional following typical of a mid-cap growth name, potentially leading to higher volatility. The consensus leans bullish based on recent institutional ratings, with firms like JP Morgan, Citigroup, TD Cowen, and Goldman Sachs maintaining 'Buy' or 'Overweight' ratings as recently as February 2026, though UBS and Piper Sandler have taken a 'Neutral' stance. The average revenue estimate for the coming period is $2.35 billion, with a range from $2.29 billion to $2.44 billion, indicating expectations for continued strong top-line growth, while the average EPS estimate is $4.93, ranging from $4.77 to $5.16. The wide range in both revenue and EPS targets signals a high degree of uncertainty among analysts regarding the company's near-term execution and profitability trajectory, making the consensus price target and implied upside difficult to pinpoint from the provided data, but the maintained bullish ratings from several major firms in the face of a steep price decline suggests a belief in the long-term story despite near-term headwinds.
ELF Technical Analysis
The stock is in a pronounced downtrend, having declined 46.0% over the past year, and is currently trading at a deeply depressed level, approximately 55% of its 52-week high of $150.99 and just 38% above its 52-week low of $48.82. This positioning near the lower end of its annual range suggests the stock is in a state of extreme oversold territory, potentially offering a value opportunity, though the risk of further downside remains given the steep 66.2% maximum drawdown. Recent momentum shows a significant short-term recovery, with the stock up 17.6% over the past month, strongly outperforming the S&P 500, which was down 2.9%, indicating a potential bottoming process or a relief rally after a severe decline. However, this positive 1-month move sharply contrasts with the negative 3-month and 6-month returns of 10.5% and -16.2%, respectively, signaling a possible trend reversal attempt but requiring confirmation with a break above key resistance. Key technical support is firmly established at the 52-week low of $48.82, while resistance lies at the 52-week high of $150.99; a sustained move above the recent high near $94 would be needed to signal a more durable recovery. The stock exhibits extreme volatility with a beta of 2.39, meaning it is 139% more volatile than the broader market, which is a critical factor for risk management and position sizing, especially during this period of high uncertainty and price discovery.
Beta
2.39
2.39x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-66.2%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$49-$151
Price range past year
Annual Return
-37.8%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | ELF Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +47.2% | -1.7% |
| 3m | +28.8% | +13.7% |
| 6m | +1.2% | +9.2% |
| 1y | -37.8% | +20.7% |
| ytd | +1.2% | +9.4% |
Bobby - Your AI Investment Partner
Get real-time data, AI-driven personalized investment analysis to make smarter investment decisions
ELF Fundamental Analysis
Revenue growth remains exceptionally strong, with the most recent quarterly revenue of $489.5 million representing a year-over-year increase of 37.8%, indicating the company continues to gain significant market share. However, profitability metrics present a more mixed and volatile picture; while the company is profitable with a net income of $39.4 million in the latest quarter, its net margin is a thin 1.6%, and quarterly earnings have been inconsistent, as seen in the sharp drop from $0.66 EPS in Q3 (Dec 2025) to $0.051 in the prior quarter. The gross margin is robust at 70.7%, but operating leverage appears challenged, with the operating margin at 8.0% for the latest quarter, down from higher levels in prior periods, indicating potential cost pressures or heavy reinvestment. The balance sheet and cash flow situation is solid, with a strong current ratio of 2.35 and a manageable debt-to-equity ratio of 0.81, suggesting a healthy liquidity position. More importantly, the company generated $214.5 million in trailing twelve-month free cash flow, providing ample internal funding for growth initiatives and operational flexibility, which is a significant positive in a high-interest rate environment and supports the company's ability to navigate its current challenges without external financing stress.
Quarterly Revenue
$489505000.0B
2025-12
Revenue YoY Growth
+0.37%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
+0.70%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$214530000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
Open an Account, get $2 TSLA now!
Valuation Analysis: Is ELF Overvalued?
Given the company's positive net income, the primary valuation metric selected is the Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio. The trailing P/E is extremely elevated at 134.7x, which is distorted by low profitability in recent quarters, while the forward P/E is a much more reasonable 18.5x, indicating the market is pricing in a significant recovery in earnings over the next twelve months. Compared to industry averages, the stock's Price-to-Sales (P/S) ratio of 2.16x is likely at a premium to many traditional consumer staples peers, but this may be justified by its superior growth profile, though the premium has compressed dramatically from its historical highs. Historically, the stock's valuation has contracted severely from its peak; for instance, its trailing P/S ratio has fallen from over 35x in mid-2024 to the current 2.16x, placing it near the bottom of its multi-year valuation range. This compression suggests the market has already priced in significant pessimism, and the current valuation reflects either a deep value opportunity or a fundamental deterioration that the market expects to be persistent, with the forward P/E of 18.5x signaling expectations for a return to more normalized, albeit slower, earnings growth.
PE
134.7x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
High-End
5-Year PE Range -13970x~645x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
25.9x
Enterprise Value Multiple

