e.l.f. Cosmetics
ELF
$109.05
+4.75%
e.l.f. Beauty, Inc. is a multi-brand beauty company offering inclusive, accessible, clean, vegan, and cruelty-free cosmetics and skincare products, operating in the Household & Personal Products industry. The company has established itself as a disruptive value player in the beauty sector, known for its affordable pricing and strong digital and social media presence, challenging traditional premium brands. Currently, the investor narrative centers on the company's recent acquisition of Rhode, which has fueled a surge in growth and raised guidance, while also facing debates over valuation and margin pressures. The stock has experienced significant volatility, with a sharp recovery from its 52-week low, driven by strong earnings beats and strategic expansions, though concerns about sustainability and high valuation persist.…
ELF
e.l.f. Cosmetics
$109.05
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Investment Opinion: Should I buy ELF Today?
We rate ELF as a Hold, given the strong growth prospects but elevated valuation and near-term profitability concerns. The consensus rating is 'Buy' with an average target of $97.75, implying a -6.1% downside, which suggests the stock is fairly valued to slightly overvalued at current levels. The thesis is that the Rhode acquisition and market share gains will drive revenue growth, but margin recovery is uncertain, and the stock's high beta adds risk.
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ELF 12-Month Price Forecast
The AI assessment is neutral, reflecting a balance between strong growth and valuation risks. The company's revenue acceleration and high gross margins are positive, but the recent net loss and high multiple create uncertainty. If the company delivers on earnings expectations and margins recover, the stock could outperform; otherwise, it may face downside. Key developments to watch include quarterly earnings, margin trends, and integration progress with Rhode.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on e.l.f. Cosmetics's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $98.56 and implied upside of -9.6% versus the current price.
Average Target
$98.56
0 analysts
Implied Upside
-9.6%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$65 - $123
Analyst target range
The stock is covered by 16 analysts, with a consensus recommendation of 'Buy' and a mean recommendation score of 1.72 (where 1 is Strong Buy and 5 is Sell). The average target price is $97.75, which implies a downside of -6.1% from the current price of $104.10. The target range is wide, from a low of $65.00 to a high of $121.00, indicating significant uncertainty about the stock's future performance. The high target suggests that some analysts see substantial upside potential, likely driven by continued growth from the Rhode acquisition and margin expansion, while the low target reflects concerns about valuation and competitive pressures.
Bulls vs Bears: ELF Investment Factors
e.l.f. Beauty presents a compelling growth story with accelerating revenue, robust gross margins, and strong analyst support, but it is tempered by a recent net loss, high valuation, and significant volatility. The bull case is stronger in the long term, driven by the Rhode acquisition and market share gains, but the bear case highlights near-term profitability challenges and valuation risk. The key tension is whether the company can sustain its growth trajectory while restoring profitability to justify its premium multiple. If margins recover as expected, the stock could re-rate higher; if not, it faces downside to analyst targets.
Bullish
- Accelerating Revenue Growth: Revenue surged 35.07% YoY in Q4 FY2026 to $449.29M, with sequential acceleration from Q2 FY2025 ($301.08M) to Q3 FY2026 ($489.51M). The Rhode acquisition is a key driver, expanding the product portfolio and fueling momentum.
- High Gross Margin of 72.66%: Gross margin remains robust at 72.66% in Q4 FY2026, reflecting strong pricing power and efficient cost management. This is a key competitive advantage in the beauty sector, supporting profitability despite growth investments.
- Strong Analyst Consensus Buy: With a consensus recommendation of 'Buy' (mean score 1.72) from 16 analysts, the Street is optimistic. The average target of $97.75 implies a modest downside, but the high target of $121 suggests significant upside potential if growth continues.
- Recent Momentum and Recovery: The stock has surged 85.89% over the past three months, recovering sharply from its 52-week low of $48.82. This reflects renewed investor confidence driven by strong earnings beats and the Rhode acquisition's positive impact.
Bearish
- Negative Net Income in Q4: Q4 FY2026 reported a net loss of -$49.37M, a sharp swing from profitability in prior quarters. This was driven by acquisition-related costs and higher interest expenses, raising concerns about near-term earnings quality.
- High Valuation vs. Peers: Trailing PE is 134.69, and forward PE is 27.21, indicating the market expects a massive earnings recovery. The PS ratio of 2.16 is elevated compared to historical norms, leaving little room for disappointment.
- Analyst Target Implies Downside: The average analyst target of $97.75 is 6.1% below the current price of $104.10, suggesting the stock may be overvalued relative to Street expectations. The low target of $65 implies a potential -37.5% downside.
- High Beta and Volatility: With a beta of 2.389, the stock is highly sensitive to market swings. The max drawdown of -66.2% highlights the risk of significant losses during downturns, making it unsuitable for risk-averse investors.
ELF Technical Analysis
The stock is in a strong recovery phase, having rebounded sharply from its 52-week low of $48.82. Over the past year, the stock is down 19.52%, but it has surged 85.89% over the past three months, indicating a powerful uptrend. Currently trading at $104.10, the stock is at 69% of its 52-week range (between $48.82 and $150.99), suggesting it has recovered significantly but still has room to reach its highs. This positioning near the upper end of the range reflects renewed momentum and investor optimism, though it may also signal potential overextension in the short term.
Beta
2.39
2.39x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-66.2%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$49-$151
Price range past year
Annual Return
-12.8%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | ELF Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +31.6% | +2.7% |
| 3m | +109.8% | +1.0% |
| 6m | +35.8% | +12.0% |
| 1y | -12.8% | +18.9% |
| ytd | +40.1% | +12.5% |
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ELF Fundamental Analysis
Revenue has shown strong growth, with the most recent quarter (Q4 FY2026, ending March 31, 2026) reporting revenue of $449.29 million, a 35.07% year-over-year increase. This growth is a continuation of a multi-quarter trend, with revenue rising from $301.08 million in Q2 FY2025 to $489.51 million in Q3 FY2026, indicating accelerating growth. The growth is driven by strong demand for the company's core cosmetics and the recent acquisition of Rhode, which has expanded its product portfolio. The company's gross margin remains robust at 72.66% in the latest quarter, reflecting its premium pricing power and efficient cost management.
Quarterly Revenue
$449292000.0B
2026-03
Revenue YoY Growth
+35.1%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
72.7%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$190062000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is ELF Overvalued?
Given that the company reported a net loss in the most recent quarter (net income of -$49.37 million), the price-to-sales (PS) ratio is the most appropriate valuation metric, as earnings are not positive. The trailing PS ratio is 2.16, while the forward PS ratio is not directly provided, but the forward PE of 27.21 suggests the market expects a significant earnings recovery. The gap between the trailing and forward metrics implies that the market is pricing in a strong rebound in profitability, which is supported by the company's raised guidance and strategic initiatives.
PE
134.7x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
High-End
5-Year PE Range 27x~101x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
25.9x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial risks are elevated due to the recent net loss of -$49.37M in Q4 FY2026, which contrasts sharply with the $28.25M profit in the same quarter last year. The company's debt-to-equity ratio of 0.81 indicates moderate leverage, and interest expenses rose to $16.65M in Q4, up from $2.86M a year ago, reflecting acquisition-related debt. While free cash flow remains positive at $190.06M TTM, the company's reliance on continued growth to justify its forward PE of 27.21 means any slowdown could trigger a de-rating. Additionally, the negative PEG ratio of -1.74 signals that earnings are not expected to grow at a rate that supports the current valuation.