Expedia Group, Inc. Common Stock
EXPE
$0.00
-1.04%
Expedia Group is a leading online travel agency operating in the Travel Services industry. It is defined by its portfolio of core brands including Expedia, Hotels.com, and Vrbo, which collectively form the world's second-largest OTA platform.
EXPE
Expedia Group, Inc. Common Stock
$0.00
Related headlines
Investment Opinion: Should I buy EXPE Today?
Based on a synthesis of the available data, the objective assessment for EXPE is a Hold. The stock's valuation is bifurcated: the forward P/E of 10.1 appears compelling, but this is contingent on achieving optimistic earnings estimates amidst a challenging environment marked by high leverage and margin pressure. The significant recent volatility and lack of a clear bullish catalyst suggest waiting for more consistent execution or a more attractive entry point is prudent. This is not financial advice but an assessment of the current data landscape.
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EXPE 12-Month Price Forecast
The analysis yields a neutral stance with medium confidence. The compelling forward valuation is heavily counterbalanced by substantial balance sheet risk and earnings volatility. The stock is in a 'show me' state, requiring proof of stable execution before a sustained rally is likely.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Expedia Group, Inc. Common Stock's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $0.00 and implied upside of — versus the current price.
Average Target
$0.00
9 analysts
Implied Upside
—
vs. current price
Analyst Count
9
covering this stock
Price Range
$0 - $0
Analyst target range
Analyst consensus data, including a specific target price and ratings distribution (e.g., Buy/Hold/Sell), is not available in the provided inputs. The institutional ratings list shows recent actions from various firms, with a mix of 'Buy', 'Neutral', 'Equal Weight', and 'Market Perform' ratings, but no aggregated consensus figures are provided. Therefore, a summary of Wall Street analyst consensus cannot be provided based on the available data.
Bulls vs Bears: EXPE Investment Factors
EXPE presents a classic high-risk, high-reward scenario. The company's strong market position and cash generation are offset by significant financial leverage and volatile earnings. The recent price correction has improved the forward valuation, but investor sentiment remains fragile due to macroeconomic and competitive concerns.
Bullish
- Strong Free Cash Flow: $3.7B TTM FCF provides financial flexibility for growth or debt reduction.
- Attractive Forward Valuation: Forward P/E of 10.1 is low, suggesting significant upside if earnings materialize.
- Market Leadership Position: World's second-largest OTA with strong brands like Expedia, Hotels.com, and Vrbo.
- Recent Price Rebound: Up 7% in the past month, showing resilience after a sharp correction.
Bearish
- High Financial Leverage: Debt-to-equity ratio of 5.2 indicates significant balance sheet risk.
- Weak Liquidity Position: Current ratio of 0.73 suggests potential short-term liquidity constraints.
- Volatile Profitability: Net income dropped from $959M in Q3 to $205M in Q4 2025.
- Elevated Trailing Valuation: Trailing P/E of 27.5 and PEG of 2.8 suggest the stock is not cheap.
EXPE Technical Analysis
The stock has experienced significant volatility over the past six months, with a sharp rally from October 2025 into January 2026, followed by a steep correction. The price surged from around $217 in early October to a peak near $303 in early January, but subsequently fell to a low near $188 in late February before partially recovering to $230.89 by March 31, 2026. This results in a net 6-month gain of 6.06% but a 3-month loss of 18.50%.
Short-term performance has been mixed. The stock is up 7.05% over the past month, significantly outperforming the S&P 500, which fell 5.25% over the same period. However, the 3-month performance of -18.50% is much worse than the S&P 500's -4.63% decline, indicating recent underperformance despite the monthly rebound.
The current price of $230.89 is approximately 24% below its 52-week high of $303.80 and about 78% above its 52-week low of $130.01, placing it in the lower-middle portion of its annual range. The stock's beta of 1.41 confirms its high volatility relative to the broader market.
Beta
1.33
1.33x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-37.4%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$130-$304
Price range past year
Annual Return
+34.2%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | EXPE Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +4.7% | -4.3% |
| 3m | -20.4% | -4.0% |
| 6m | +2.8% | -2.0% |
| 1y | +34.2% | +22.2% |
| ytd | -20.4% | -3.8% |
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EXPE Fundamental Analysis
Revenue growth has been positive but volatile on a quarterly basis. The most recent Q4 2025 revenue of $3.55 billion represents an 11.4% year-over-year increase from Q4 2024. However, profitability has been inconsistent; Q4 2025 net income was $205 million (net margin of 5.8%), a significant decline from the $959 million net income in Q3 2025. The full-year trend shows strong profitability in Q2 and Q3 2025, but losses in Q1 2025 and weaker Q4 results.
Financial health is a concern due to high leverage. The debt-to-equity ratio is 5.19, indicating significant financial leverage. The current ratio is 0.73, suggesting potential short-term liquidity constraints. Positively, the company generated strong free cash flow of $3.70 billion over the trailing twelve months, providing some financial flexibility.
Operational efficiency metrics show a high Return on Equity (ROE) of 100.8%, but this is largely driven by the high financial leverage. The Return on Assets (ROA) is a more modest 5.77%. The gross margin remains robust at 84.1%, but the operating margin of 13.4% indicates high operating expenses, primarily in sales and marketing.
Quarterly Revenue
$3.5B
2025-12
Revenue YoY Growth
+0.11%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
+0.84%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$3.7B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is EXPE Overvalued?
Given that the company has positive net income, the primary valuation metric is the Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio. The trailing P/E ratio is 27.45, while the forward P/E is 10.06, based on estimated future earnings. The forward P/E suggests the stock is trading at a more reasonable valuation if earnings estimates are achieved. The Price-to-Sales (P/S) ratio is 2.41, and the EV/EBITDA is 12.29.
Peer comparison data for industry averages is not available in the provided inputs. Therefore, a direct comparison to sector norms for P/E, P/S, or EV/EBITDA cannot be made. The PEG ratio of 2.77, based on trailing earnings, suggests the stock may be overvalued relative to its expected earnings growth rate.
PE
27.4x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
High-End
5-Year PE Range -63x~42x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
12.3x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Expedia faces multiple significant risks. Financially, the high debt-to-equity ratio of 5.2 and a current ratio below 1 (0.73) create vulnerability to rising interest rates or an economic downturn that could pressure cash flows. Operationally, profitability is highly volatile, as evidenced by the steep quarterly decline from Q3 to Q4 2025, and management has dialed down margin expectations for 2026, signaling potential headwinds.
Market and competitive risks are pronounced. The stock's beta of 1.41 confirms it is more volatile than the market, and recent news highlights fears of AI disruption to the traditional online travel agency model. Furthermore, the company is exposed to broader travel industry risks, including potential TSA staffing crises and economic sensitivity, as travel is a discretionary expense. The lack of a clear analyst consensus adds to the uncertainty surrounding the stock's near-term trajectory.
FAQ
The primary risks are financial and competitive. Financially, EXPE carries high leverage (debt-to-equity of 5.2) and has weak short-term liquidity (current ratio of 0.73). Competitively, the business faces potential disruption from AI and is sensitive to economic cycles that affect travel spending. Operationally, profitability has been highly volatile, with net income dropping sharply from Q3 to Q4 2025.
The 12-month outlook is mixed with a base case target range of $215 to $260, representing modest upside from the current price. The bull case (25% probability) sees a rally towards the 52-week high of ~$304 if earnings beat expectations. The bear case (20% probability) envisions a retest of recent lows near $188 if economic or competitive pressures intensify. The most likely scenario is continued volatility within a range.
EXPE's valuation sends mixed signals. Based on trailing earnings (P/E of 27.5) and growth (PEG of 2.8), the stock appears overvalued. However, based on forward earnings estimates (Forward P/E of 10.1), it appears undervalued. This discrepancy highlights the market's skepticism about the company's ability to achieve its projected earnings growth given its financial leverage and margin pressures.
EXPE is a high-risk, potentially high-reward stock that may suit investors with a higher risk tolerance. Currently, it is assessed as a Hold. The forward P/E of 10.1 is attractive, but this is offset by a high debt-to-equity ratio of 5.2 and recent volatile earnings. The stock requires proof of consistent execution and margin stability before it can be considered a more compelling buy.
EXPE is more suitable for a long-term investment horizon, but only for investors who can tolerate high volatility. The company's significant debt load and cyclical business model make short-term trading highly speculative. A long-term view allows time for the company to potentially de-lever its balance sheet and for its strong free cash flow generation to create shareholder value, but this path is uncertain.