Hologic Inc
HOLX
$75.65
+0.07%
Hologic Inc is a healthcare company specializing in proprietary products for women's health, operating in diagnostics, breast health, surgical, and skeletal health segments. It is a leader in women's healthcare diagnostics, with a core advantage stemming from its diversified portfolio and significant market presence in the United States.…
HOLX
Hologic Inc
$75.65
Related headlines
Investment Opinion: Should I buy HOLX Today?
Based on a synthesis of the provided data, the objective assessment for Hologic (HOLX) is a Hold. The stock's strong relative strength, solid financials, and reasonable forward P/E of 15.6 provide a foundation for stability. However, the trend of analyst downgrades to neutral stances, coupled with modest revenue growth and the stock trading at a technical resistance level, suggests limited near-term catalysts for significant outperformance. Investors may find better entry points on market weakness.
Sign up to view all
HOLX 12-Month Price Forecast
The data supports a neutral stance. Positive technicals and valuation normalization (forward P/E) are balanced by cautious analyst sentiment and fundamental growth concerns. The high probability base case reflects a range-bound or mildly positive outcome.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Hologic Inc's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $98.35 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.
Average Target
$98.35
7 analysts
Implied Upside
+30.0%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
7
covering this stock
Price Range
$61 - $98
Analyst target range
Analyst data shows coverage from 7 analysts, with consensus estimates for EPS averaging $5.75 and revenue averaging $4.90 billion. Recent institutional rating actions, primarily from late 2025 and early 2026, show a trend of downgrades to neutral or hold-equivalent ratings (e.g., Market Perform, Equal Weight, Neutral) from previously more bullish stances. This shift suggests a cautious near-term outlook among analysts despite the company's fundamental strengths.
Bulls vs Bears: HOLX Investment Factors
Hologic presents a mixed picture. Strong technical performance, a solid balance sheet, and an improving forward valuation are clear positives. However, these are countered by analyst skepticism, slowing top-line growth, and margin pressures. The stock appears to be fairly valued at current levels, with future performance heavily dependent on earnings delivery.
Bullish
- Strong Technical Momentum: Stock up 11.3% in 6 months, outperforming S&P 500 by 14.13%, trading near 52-week high.
- Solid Financial Position: Strong liquidity with current ratio of 3.75 and manageable debt-to-equity of 0.52.
- Attractive Forward Valuation: Forward P/E of 15.6 is significantly lower than trailing P/E of 27, implying earnings growth.
- Robust Free Cash Flow: Trailing twelve-month free cash flow of ~$1.0 billion supports financial flexibility.
Bearish
- Analyst Downgrade Trend: Recent analyst actions show shift to neutral/hold ratings, indicating cautious near-term outlook.
- Slowing Revenue Growth: Latest quarterly revenue growth of 2.5% Y/Y is modest, suggesting potential market saturation.
- Margin Compression: Net margin of 17.1% in Q1 2026 is down from 19.6% in Q1 2025.
- Valuation Near Peak: Stock price is 0.25% below 52-week high, leaving limited near-term upside without catalysts.
HOLX Technical Analysis
The stock has demonstrated a strong and steady uptrend over the past six months, rising from approximately $67.91 in early October 2025 to $75.59 by the end of March 2026, representing a gain of 11.3%. This performance significantly outpaced the broader market, as evidenced by a 6-month relative strength of 14.13 against the S&P 500. Short-term performance has been positive but more muted, with the stock gaining 0.31% over the past month and 1.48% over the past three months. These gains again outperformed the market, which was down 5.25% and 4.63% over the same periods, respectively. The current price of $75.59 is near the top of its 52-week range of $51.90 to $75.78, trading just 0.25% below the yearly high. This positioning indicates strong momentum and suggests the stock is testing a key resistance level.
Beta
0.73
0.73x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-19.6%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$52-$76
Price range past year
Annual Return
+24.9%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | HOLX Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +0.3% | -3.6% |
| 3m | +1.5% | -4.0% |
| 6m | +10.9% | -2.0% |
| 1y | +24.9% | +16.2% |
| ytd | +1.5% | -3.8% |
Bobby - Your AI Investment Partner
Get real-time data, AI-driven personalized investment analysis to make smarter investment decisions
HOLX Fundamental Analysis
Revenue for the latest quarter (Q1 2026) was $1.05 billion, showing a modest year-over-year growth of 2.5% from the prior year's Q1. Profitability has been volatile; the net margin was a healthy 17.1% in Q1 2026, recovering from a negative margin in Q2 2025, but down from 19.6% in Q1 2025. The trailing twelve-month free cash flow is strong at approximately $1.0 billion. The company maintains a solid financial position with a current ratio of 3.75 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.52, indicating manageable leverage and ample liquidity. Operating cash flow generation remains robust, supporting the company's financial health. Operational efficiency, as measured by Return on Equity (ROE), stands at 11.2%. The company's asset turnover and other efficiency metrics from the latest quarterly data show stable operations, though margins have seen some compression compared to the previous fiscal year.
Quarterly Revenue
$1.0B
2025-12
Revenue YoY Growth
+0.02%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
+0.55%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$999599999.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
Open an Account, get $2 TSLA now!
Valuation Analysis: Is HOLX Overvalued?
Given the company's positive net income, the primary valuation metric used is the Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio. Hologic's trailing P/E ratio is 26.99, while its forward P/E is 15.58 based on analyst estimates. The forward P/E suggests a more reasonable valuation relative to near-term earnings expectations. Peer comparison data for industry averages is not available in the provided inputs. The valuation based on sales multiples shows a Price-to-Sales (P/S) ratio of 3.72 and an Enterprise Value-to-Sales (EV/Sales) ratio of 4.13. The forward P/E of 15.6 appears more attractive than the trailing multiple, indicating expected earnings growth.
PE
27.0x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
High-End
5-Year PE Range -199x~47x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
15.6x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Hologic faces several key risks. Operationally, the modest 2.5% year-over-year revenue growth in its latest quarter highlights a risk of slowing demand or increased competition in its core women's health diagnostics and breast health markets. Margin volatility, evidenced by the swing from a negative net margin in Q2 2025 to 17.1% in Q1 2026, indicates potential instability in cost management or pricing power. Financial and market risks are moderate. The company's low beta of 0.73 suggests it is less volatile than the market, which is a defensive positive, but it also may limit upside in strong bull markets. A significant short interest, with a short ratio of 2.78, points to a notable segment of investors betting against the stock, which can increase volatility. The primary valuation risk is that the stock is trading at a premium trailing P/E of 27 and near its 52-week high, making it vulnerable to a pullback if earnings disappoint or market sentiment sours.
FAQ
Key risks include: 1) Growth Risk: Slowing revenue growth (2.5% Y/Y in Q1) could indicate market saturation. 2) Margin Risk: Net margin has compressed from 19.6% to 17.1% year-over-year. 3) Sentiment Risk: Analyst ratings have recently shifted towards Neutral/Hold. 4) Valuation Risk: Trading near its 52-week high leaves little room for error, and a high short ratio of 2.78 can increase volatility.
The 12-month outlook is for modest, range-bound performance. The base case (60% probability) sees the stock trading between $70 and $80, driven by meeting consensus EPS of $5.75. The bull case (25%) targets $82-$90 on earnings beats and multiple expansion. The bear case (15%) could see a retreat to $55-$65 on earnings misses. The consensus view is neutral with a slight upward bias from current levels.
HOLX appears fairly valued. Its trailing P/E of 27 is high, but the more relevant forward P/E of 15.6, based on analyst EPS estimates of $5.75, is reasonable for a stable healthcare company. The Price-to-Sales ratio of 3.72 and EV/Sales of 4.13 are in line with many medical device peers. The valuation is not cheap, but it is not excessively stretched given the company's profitability.
HOLX is a Hold at current levels. It is a high-quality company with strong cash flow and a solid balance sheet (current ratio 3.75). However, with the stock near its 52-week high, modest revenue growth of 2.5%, and a trend of analyst downgrades to neutral ratings, the immediate upside appears limited. A better buying opportunity may arise on a market pullback.
HOLX is more suitable for a long-term, income-oriented portfolio seeking stability and moderate growth. Its low beta (0.73) and defensive healthcare focus provide downside protection. The lack of a dividend means returns are solely price-based. Short-term traders face headwinds from high prices near resistance and analyst caution, making significant near-term gains less probable without a clear catalyst.