HPQ

HP Inc.

$18.26

-0.65%
Apr 12, 2026
Bobby Quantitative Model
HP Inc. is a global technology company operating in the Computer Hardware industry, with its core business focused on personal computing devices (PCs) and printing solutions. The company is a market leader and behemoth in these mature markets, having focused exclusively on them since its 2015 split from Hewlett Packard Enterprise, and it maintains a distinct competitive identity through its strong commercial market focus and a broad, outsourced manufacturing model. The current investor narrative centers on the stock's significant underperformance relative to the broader market, driven by fears of margin compression in the hardware sector, cyclical weakness in PC demand, and its perceived vulnerability to AI-led disruption and macroeconomic trade threats, as highlighted in recent news about a tech sector selloff.

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HPQ 12-Month Price Forecast

Historical Price
Current Price $18.26
Average Target $18.26
High Target $20.999
Low Target $15.521

Wall Street consensus

Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on HP Inc.'s 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $23.74 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.

Average Target

$23.74

5 analysts

Implied Upside

+30.0%

vs. current price

Analyst Count

5

covering this stock

Price Range

$15 - $24

Analyst target range

Buy
1 (20%)
Hold
2 (40%)
Sell
2 (40%)

Analyst coverage for HPQ is limited, with only 5 analysts providing estimates, and the institutional ratings data reveals a overwhelmingly bearish sentiment, with recent actions including 'Sell', 'Underweight', and 'Underperform' from major firms like Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and Barclays. The consensus leans bearish, and while a specific average target price is not provided in the data, the pattern of ratings suggests the implied upside is minimal or negative, aligning with the stock's significant underperformance. The wide dispersion in analyst views and the prevalence of sell-side skepticism signals high uncertainty regarding HPQ's future; the low targets likely price in continued margin pressure, cyclical headwinds, and competitive threats, while any high targets would require a belief in a successful restructuring or a cyclical rebound in PC and printing demand, which appears to have low conviction among covering institutions.

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HPQ Technical Analysis

The prevailing price trend for HPQ is a pronounced and sustained downtrend, with the stock down 20.16% over the past year and trading near the bottom of its 52-week range. With a current price of $18.26, it sits just 4.0% above its 52-week low of $17.56 and 38.2% below its 52-week high of $29.55, positioning it as a potential value opportunity but also signaling significant negative momentum and investor pessimism. Recent momentum remains deeply negative and aligns with the longer-term downtrend, with the stock down 1.08% over the past month and 14.95% over the past three months, severely underperforming the S&P 500 by -1.54% and -12.85% over those respective periods, indicating no signs of a near-term reversal. Key technical support is clearly defined at the 52-week low of $17.56, while resistance lies at the 52-week high of $29.55; a breakdown below $17.56 would signal a continuation of the bearish trend, while a sustained move above it could suggest a basing pattern. The stock's beta of 1.131 indicates it is approximately 13% more volatile than the broader market, which is a critical consideration for risk management given its substantial 40.41% maximum drawdown.

Beta

1.13

1.13x market volatility

Max Drawdown

-39.3%

Largest decline past year

52-Week Range

$18-$30

Price range past year

Annual Return

-20.2%

Cumulative gain past year

PeriodHPQ ReturnS&P 500
1m-1.1%+2.6%
3m-15.0%-2.3%
6m-28.5%+2.6%
1y-20.2%+27.3%
ytd-17.5%-0.4%

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HPQ Fundamental Analysis

HPQ's revenue trajectory shows modest growth but significant quarterly volatility; the most recent Q1 FY26 revenue was $14.44 billion, representing a 6.92% year-over-year increase, yet this follows a sequential decline from the prior quarter's $14.64 billion, and segment data reveals the Personal Systems Group ($10.25B) is the primary growth driver over the Printing segment ($4.19B). The company remains profitable with a Q1 net income of $545 million, but profitability is under pressure as evidenced by a gross margin of 19.64%, which has compressed from 21.35% a year earlier, and the net margin of 3.77% is down significantly from the 6.45% net margin reported in the year-ago Q4. The balance sheet and cash flow position is mixed, with a weak current ratio of 0.77 indicating potential liquidity strain, but strong annual free cash flow generation of $2.88 billion (TTM) provides internal funding for dividends and buybacks; however, the negative Return on Equity (-7.31%) and a debt-to-equity ratio of -31.45 (indicating negative shareholder equity) complicate the assessment of financial leverage and efficiency.

Quarterly Revenue

$14.4B

2026-01

Revenue YoY Growth

+0.06%

YoY Comparison

Gross Margin

+0.19%

Latest Quarter

Free Cash Flow

$2.9B

Last 12 Months

Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)

Revenue Breakdown

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Valuation Analysis: Is HPQ Overvalued?

Given HPQ's positive net income, the primary valuation metric selected is the Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio. The stock trades at a trailing PE of 10.35x and a forward PE of 6.14x based on estimated EPS; this substantial discount of the forward multiple implies the market expects a significant earnings decline or has deeply discounted future cash flows. Compared to sector averages, HPQ's valuation appears depressed; its Price-to-Sales ratio of 0.47x and EV-to-Sales of 0.44x are likely at a discount to hardware peers, though specific industry averages are not provided, and its low multiples reflect concerns over growth and margin sustainability in a cyclical industry. Historically, the stock's current trailing PE of 10.35x is below its own historical range seen in recent quarters (e.g., 13.63x in Jan-2025, 9.60x in Oct-2024), suggesting it is trading at a relatively low valuation on its own history, which may indicate a value opportunity if fundamentals stabilize, but could also price in expected deterioration.

PE

10.4x

Latest Quarter

vs. Historical

High-End

5-Year PE Range -3383x~15x

vs. Industry Avg

N/A

Industry PE ~N/A*

EV/EBITDA

8.2x

Enterprise Value Multiple

Investment Risk Disclosure