IONQ

IONQ

$45.75

-0.97%
May 4, 2026
Bobby Quantitative Model
IonQ, Inc. is a pure-play quantum computing company that sells access to its quantum computers via a cloud-based Quantum-Computing-as-a-Service (QCaaS) model, operating within the high-tech Computer Hardware industry. The company positions itself as a technological leader and potential disruptor in the nascent quantum computing race, primarily utilizing trapped-ion technology which is viewed by some as a more stable and scalable path compared to competitors. The current investor narrative is intensely focused on the sector's speculative boom and IonQ's tangible progress, driven by recent news of a major government contract, technical milestones, and a broader market rally in quantum stocks fueled by advancements like Nvidia's AI for quantum error correction, all of which are sparking debates over sustainable valuations versus long-term transformative potential.

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IONQ 12-Month Price Forecast

Historical Price
Current Price $45.75
Average Target $45.75
High Target $52.6125
Low Target $38.887499999999996

Wall Street consensus

Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on IONQ's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $59.48 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.

Average Target

$59.48

3 analysts

Implied Upside

+30.0%

vs. current price

Analyst Count

3

covering this stock

Price Range

$37 - $59

Analyst target range

Buy
0 (0%)
Hold
1 (33%)
Sell
2 (67%)

Analyst coverage is limited, with only 3 analysts providing estimates, indicating this is still a niche, speculative stock with less institutional research scrutiny, which can contribute to higher volatility and less efficient price discovery. The available data shows analyst revenue estimates for the forward year averaging $1.21 billion, with a range from $1.12 billion to $1.36 billion, but a consensus price target or recommendation distribution is not provided in the data, making a precise upside/downside calculation impossible. The institutional ratings history shows a pattern of maintained 'Buy' ratings from firms like Needham, Benchmark, and Craig-Hallum, alongside 'Neutral' or 'Equal Weight' stances from Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, suggesting a bifurcated view between bullish specialists and more cautious generalists; the lack of recent rating changes in the provided data (latest from August 2024) implies analysts may be in a watchful waiting mode amidst the stock's recent violent price movements.

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IONQ Technical Analysis

The stock is in a pronounced recovery phase within a longer-term downtrend, having gained 68.74% over the past year but declining 25.94% over the last six months. Currently trading at $46.20, the price sits at approximately 55% of its 52-week range ($25.89 to $84.64), indicating it has recovered meaningfully from recent lows but remains well off its highs, suggesting a potential value opportunity if the recovery sustains but also reflecting the significant volatility and drawdowns inherent in this name. Recent short-term momentum is exceptionally strong and diverging positively from the longer-term trend, with the stock up 66.25% over the past month and 15.56% over the past three months, significantly outperforming the SPY's 9.98% and 4.14% gains over the same periods; this explosive rally suggests a potential trend reversal or a powerful mean reversion bounce, likely catalyzed by specific sector news and contract wins. Key technical levels are the 52-week low of $25.89, which now serves as major support, and the 52-week high of $84.64, representing substantial resistance; a sustained breakout above $84.64 would signal a resumption of the prior bull trend, while a breakdown below $25.89 would indicate a failure of the recent recovery. The stock's extreme volatility is quantified by a beta of 2.80, meaning it is approximately 180% more volatile than the broader market, which is critical for risk management and position sizing given its propensity for large swings, as evidenced by a maximum drawdown of -67.61%.

Beta

3.05

3.05x market volatility

Max Drawdown

-67.6%

Largest decline past year

52-Week Range

$26-$85

Price range past year

Annual Return

+48.0%

Cumulative gain past year

PeriodIONQ ReturnS&P 500
1m+56.1%+9.5%
3m+18.9%+4.1%
6m-17.4%+6.0%
1y+48.0%+26.7%
ytd-2.2%+5.3%

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IONQ Fundamental Analysis

Revenue growth is accelerating dramatically on a sequential quarterly basis, with Q4 2025 revenue reaching $61.89 million, representing a 428.5% year-over-year increase from a very small base; this follows Q3 revenue of $39.87 million and Q2 revenue of $20.69 million, indicating a powerful ramp, though the absolute revenue figure remains modest relative to the company's market capitalization. The company is deeply unprofitable on a net income basis, with a trailing twelve-month net margin of -3.93% and a quarterly net income of $703.52 million in Q4 2025, which was positive due to a large non-operating income item, but operating income was -$242.73 million; gross margin improved significantly to 56.48% in Q4 from 47.99% in Q3 and 8.46% in Q2, showing positive trajectory in core unit economics, though operating expenses remain high. The balance sheet shows a strong liquidity position with a current ratio of 15.50 and minimal debt, evidenced by a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.0079, but cash flow generation is a critical concern as the company burned -$301.80 million in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months and reported -$74.51 million in operating cash flow for Q4 2025; this indicates the company is heavily reliant on external financing (evidenced by common stock issuances) to fund its aggressive growth and R&D, with an ROE of -13.43% and ROA of -10.42% reflecting the current inefficiency in generating returns from its asset base.

Quarterly Revenue

$61890000.0B

2025-12

Revenue YoY Growth

+4.28%

YoY Comparison

Gross Margin

+0.56%

Latest Quarter

Free Cash Flow

$-301797000.0B

Last 12 Months

Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)

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Valuation Analysis: Is IONQ Overvalued?

Given the company's negative net income and EBITDA, the primary valuation metric selected is the Price-to-Sales (PS) ratio. The trailing PS ratio is an extraordinarily high 96.75x, while the forward PS ratio (based on analyst revenue estimates) is not directly calculable but implied to be lower given projected revenue growth to ~$1.21 billion; the massive gap between the current revenue base and the forward estimate is what the market is pricing in, representing extreme growth expectations. Compared to industry averages, IonQ's valuation is in a league of its own due to its speculative, pre-profit nature; a direct peer comparison is challenging, but its PS ratio of 96.75x is astronomically higher than typical hardware or software companies, indicating a premium that can only be justified by the belief in capturing a dominant share of a future multi-billion dollar quantum computing market. Historically, the stock's own valuation has been volatile and extreme; the current PS ratio of 96.75x is below its historical peak of over 22,000x in 2021 but above the 250.66x recorded at the end of Q4 2025; trading well below its own insane historical highs suggests some cooling of speculative fever, but remaining at such an elevated level indicates the market still prices in transformative success, leaving little room for execution missteps.

PE

-24.6x

Latest Quarter

vs. Historical

High-End

5-Year PE Range -148x~6x

vs. Industry Avg

N/A

Industry PE ~N/A*

EV/EBITDA

-24.4x

Enterprise Value Multiple