Marriott International
MAR
$346.83
-6.97%
Marriott International is the world's largest hotel company, operating over 1.8 million rooms across roughly 30 brands spanning luxury to midscale segments, with a predominantly asset-light model where managed and franchised properties represent 99% of total rooms. As a market leader in the global travel and lodging industry, Marriott's competitive moat lies in its extensive brand portfolio, loyalty program, and scale advantages in distribution and operational efficiency. The current investor narrative centers on the company's robust recovery and growth trajectory, driven by resilient travel demand, expansion in international markets, and a strategic focus on fee-based revenue streams, while also navigating potential headwinds from economic uncertainty and evolving competitive dynamics in the hospitality sector.…
MAR
Marriott International
$346.83
Related headlines
Investment Opinion: Should I buy MAR Today?
Marriott is rated a Buy with an average analyst target of $384.83, implying 3.22% upside from the current price of $372.83. The thesis is supported by 6.24% revenue growth, strong fee-based income, and a 9.74% net margin, with forward P/E of 28.43x reflecting expected earnings growth. The stock has outperformed the market significantly, and its asset-light model provides scalability. However, the PEG of 2.35x suggests the stock is not cheap, and margin compression is a concern. This Buy rating would be downgraded to Hold if revenue growth falls below 4% or gross margins drop below 18%, and upgraded to Strong Buy if the forward P/E compresses below 25x. Overall, MAR is fairly valued relative to its growth, but investors should monitor margin trends and economic conditions.
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MAR 12-Month Price Forecast
The AI model assesses MAR as neutral with medium confidence, balancing strong growth and market outperformance against valuation and margin risks. The stock's premium multiple leaves little room for error, and any negative surprise could trigger a correction. Upgrades to bullish would require sustained revenue acceleration above 8% and margin stabilization, while downgrades to bearish would occur if revenue growth falls below 3% or gross margins drop below 18%.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Marriott International's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $384.83 and implied upside of +11.0% versus the current price.
Average Target
$384.83
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+11.0%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$272 - $449
Analyst target range
The target price range spans from a low of $272.00 to a high of $449.00, reflecting a wide dispersion of 65.1% from the low to the high, which signals significant uncertainty about Marriott's future performance. The high target of $449 assumes continued strong travel demand, successful execution of growth initiatives, and potential multiple expansion, while the low target of $272 implies concerns about economic downturn, competitive pressures, or margin compression. Recent institutional ratings show no major upgrades or downgrades, with most firms maintaining their previous stances, suggesting a stable but cautious outlook among analysts.
Bulls vs Bears: MAR Investment Factors
Marriott presents a compelling growth story with strong revenue momentum, asset-light scalability, and market outperformance, but faces valuation and margin challenges. The bull case is supported by robust travel demand and fee-based growth, while the bear case highlights premium valuation and economic sensitivity. Currently, the bull side has stronger evidence given consistent earnings growth and analyst optimism, yet the key tension is whether revenue growth can sustain to justify the high multiple. If growth decelerates or margins compress further, the stock could face significant de-rating, making the valuation the pivotal factor.
Bullish
- Strong Revenue Growth and Asset-Light Model: Q1 2026 revenue grew 6.24% YoY to $6.654B, driven by fee-based income (franchise fees $872M, management fees $561M) from 99% managed/franchised rooms, ensuring high-margin, scalable growth.
- Outperforming Market with Strong Momentum: Stock up 41.31% over 1 year vs. S&P 500's 18.19%, with 6-month gain of 18.25% and relative strength of 23.12x, indicating robust investor confidence and sustained uptrend.
- Solid Profitability and Cash Flow: Q1 2026 net income of $648M (net margin 9.74%) and TTM free cash flow of $3.114B, supporting dividend payments (yield 0.86%) and share buybacks, enhancing shareholder returns.
- Analyst Consensus Buy with Upside: 24 analysts rate MAR a Buy with average target $384.83, implying 3.22% upside from $372.83, and high target $449 suggests 20.4% potential if growth accelerates.
Bearish
- Elevated Valuation with High PEG: Trailing P/E of 32.59x and forward P/E of 28.43x are premium to market, with PEG of 2.35x indicating overvaluation relative to growth, risking multiple compression.
- High Debt and Negative Equity: Debt-to-equity of -4.53x and negative equity (due to buybacks) raise financial risk; current ratio of 0.43x suggests liquidity pressure, though asset-light model mitigates.
- Sensitivity to Economic Downturns: Beta of 1.106 indicates higher volatility than market; travel demand is cyclical, and a recession could sharply reduce RevPAR and fee income, hitting earnings.
- Wide Analyst Target Dispersion: Target range from $272 to $449 (65.1% spread) signals uncertainty; low target implies 27% downside, reflecting concerns about demand or competitive pressures.
MAR Technical Analysis
Marriott's stock has demonstrated a strong uptrend over the past year, with a 1-year price change of +41.31%, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's +18.19% over the same period. The current price of $372.83 sits at approximately 90.7% of the 52-week range (between $253.76 low and $410.98 high), indicating the stock is trading near its highs, reflecting robust momentum and investor confidence, though it also suggests potential overextension in the short term. The 6-month price change of +18.25% further confirms the sustained upward trajectory, with the stock consistently making higher lows and highs.
Beta
1.12
1.12x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-13.8%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$255-$411
Price range past year
Annual Return
+35.8%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | MAR Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | -7.0% | +1.7% |
| 3m | -2.2% | +4.7% |
| 6m | +6.9% | +10.4% |
| 1y | +35.8% | +21.9% |
| ytd | +10.7% | +11.1% |
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MAR Fundamental Analysis
Marriott's revenue trajectory remains solid, with Q1 2026 revenue of $6.654 billion, representing a 6.24% year-over-year growth from $6.263 billion in Q1 2025. The multi-quarter trend shows consistent expansion, with revenue growing from $6.258 billion in Q1 2025 to $6.489 billion in Q3 2025 and $6.69 billion in Q4 2025, though Q1 2026 saw a slight sequential dip from Q4 2025's $6.69 billion. The growth is primarily driven by fee revenue, which includes franchise fees of $872 million and management fees of $561 million, reflecting the asset-light model's scalability, while owned and leased revenue contributed $412 million. This steady growth underscores the resilience of travel demand and Marriott's ability to monetize its brand portfolio.
Quarterly Revenue
$6.7B
2026-03
Revenue YoY Growth
+6.2%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
20.2%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$3.1B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is MAR Overvalued?
Given Marriott's positive net income of $648 million in Q1 2026, the trailing P/E ratio of 32.59x is the primary valuation metric, with a forward P/E of 28.43x, indicating the market expects earnings growth. The gap between trailing and forward P/E suggests an anticipated earnings increase of approximately 14.6%, aligning with the company's growth prospects. The PEG ratio of 2.35x implies that the stock is priced at a premium to its expected earnings growth rate, which may warrant caution for value-oriented investors.
PE
32.6x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Mid-Range
5-Year PE Range 17x~47x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
22.3x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financially, Marriott carries substantial debt with a debt-to-equity of -4.53x, reflecting aggressive share buybacks that have eroded equity, and a current ratio of 0.43x indicates potential liquidity strain. However, the asset-light model generates strong free cash flow ($3.114B TTM) to service debt, and interest coverage is adequate (EBITDA $1.234B vs. interest $214M in Q1). Margin pressure is evident with gross margin down to 20.15% from 26.87% a year ago, which could erode profitability if cost inflation persists. Revenue concentration in North America (61% of rooms) exposes the company to regional economic swings, though international expansion mitigates this.
FAQ
The key risks for MAR include: 1) Economic downturn risk, as travel is cyclical and a recession could sharply reduce demand (beta of 1.106). 2) Valuation risk, with a forward P/E of 28.43x and PEG of 2.35x, leaving little room for error. 3) Margin compression, as gross margin fell from 26.87% to 20.15% over the past year, indicating rising costs. 4) High debt levels, with a debt-to-equity of -4.53x, though cash flow is strong. The most severe risk is a recession that could cause a 27% decline to the 52-week low of $253.76, so investors should monitor economic indicators and margin trends.
The 12-month forecast for MAR is moderately positive, with a base case probability of 50% targeting $360-$400 (average $384.83), implying about 3% upside. The bull case (30% probability) targets $400-$449, driven by strong travel demand and multiple expansion, while the bear case (20% probability) targets $272-$320, reflecting a recession scenario. The most likely outcome is steady growth with modest gains, as the company's asset-light model and brand strength support continued fee income growth. Investors should watch for revenue growth above 8% to confirm the bull case, or below 3% to signal the bear case.
MAR is trading at a premium to the market with a trailing P/E of 32.59x and forward P/E of 28.43x, which is higher than the S&P 500's average. The PEG ratio of 2.35x indicates that the stock is overvalued relative to its expected earnings growth, as a PEG above 1 typically suggests overvaluation. Compared to its own history, the stock is near the high end of its valuation range, reflecting strong investor confidence. The market is pricing in continued growth and margin expansion, which may be optimistic given recent margin compression. Overall, MAR is fairly valued to slightly overvalued, and investors should wait for a pullback to a more attractive entry point.
MAR is a good buy for investors with a medium-to-long-term horizon, given its strong revenue growth (6.24% YoY) and asset-light model that generates high margins and cash flow. The analyst consensus is Buy with an average target of $384.83, implying 3.22% upside, but the stock is not cheap with a forward P/E of 28.43x. The biggest downside risk is a recession that could cut travel demand, potentially leading to a 27% drop to the low target of $272. For growth-oriented investors who can tolerate volatility, MAR offers a solid risk/reward, but value investors may find it overvalued.
MAR is better suited for long-term investment, as its growth is tied to the multi-year travel recovery and international expansion. The stock has a beta of 1.106, indicating higher volatility, which may not suit short-term traders. With a dividend yield of only 0.86%, income investors may find it less attractive, but the potential for capital appreciation is significant. Given the cyclical nature of the industry, a minimum holding period of 3-5 years is recommended to ride out economic cycles and benefit from compounding growth. Short-term trading could be profitable during momentum phases, but the risk of sharp corrections is high.