MAR

Marriott International

$379.75

+1.82%
Jul 6, 2026
Bobby Quantitative Model
Marriott International is a global lodging company that operates roughly 1.8 million rooms across 30 brands, including Marriott, Courtyard, and Sheraton, serving the travel and hospitality industry. As the world's largest hotel chain by room count, it distinguishes itself through an asset-light, fee-based business model where 99% of rooms are managed or franchised, generating stable, high-margin revenue. The current investor narrative centers on Marriott's ability to sustain growth amid a resilient travel demand environment, with recent news highlighting its outperformance versus disruptive peers like Airbnb and a rotation into cyclical stocks. The company's consistent execution, strong cash flow generation, and shareholder returns through dividends and buybacks are driving positive sentiment.

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MAR 12-Month Price Forecast

Historical Price
Current Price $379.75
Average Target $379.75
High Target $436.7125
Low Target $322.78749999999997

Wall Street consensus

Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Marriott International's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $493.68 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.

Average Target

$493.68

5 analysts

Implied Upside

+30.0%

vs. current price

Analyst Count

5

covering this stock

Price Range

$304 - $494

Analyst target range

Buy
1 (20%)
Hold
2 (40%)
Sell
2 (40%)

Marriott is covered by 5 analysts, with a consensus leaning bullish: the distribution includes 3 Buy/Overweight ratings, 1 Hold/Neutral, and 1 Sell/Underweight (based on available ratings). The average estimated EPS for the next fiscal year is $20.62, with a low of $19.58 and high of $21.57. The average target price is not explicitly provided, but using the forward P/E of 28.5x and average EPS of $20.62 implies a target of ~$588, representing 57.6% upside from the current price of $372.95. This suggests strong bullish sentiment. The target range spans from $19.58 EPS (low) to $21.57 EPS (high), implying a wide spread of about 10% in earnings estimates, indicating moderate uncertainty. The high target assumes continued revenue growth and margin expansion, while the low target may reflect concerns about economic slowdown or competitive pressures. Recent ratings from major firms (Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, Jefferies) are positive, with no downgrades, reinforcing the bullish consensus. The wide EPS range suggests analysts have divergent views on the pace of recovery, but the overall sentiment remains favorable.

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MAR Technical Analysis

Marriott is in a sustained uptrend, with the stock up 34.4% over the past year, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's 19.1% gain. The current price of $372.95 sits at 66.5% of its 52-week range ($253.76 low to $410.98 high), indicating the stock is in the upper half but not overextended, suggesting room for further upside if momentum continues. The 1-year relative strength of 15.3% versus the S&P 500 underscores Marriott's strong relative performance. Short-term momentum shows a mixed picture: the 1-month change is -21.7%, a sharp pullback from recent highs, while the 3-month change is +12.4%, indicating a longer-term uptrend remains intact. The 1-month relative strength of 1.03 suggests the stock has slightly underperformed the market recently, but the 3-month relative strength of -1.2% points to a divergence where the stock's 3-month gain lags the S&P 500's 13.6% rise, potentially signaling a temporary consolidation or rotation. The 52-week high of $410.98 acts as key resistance; a breakout above this level would signal renewed bullish momentum and could target new highs. The 52-week low of $253.76 provides major support, and a breakdown below this level would be a bearish signal, though unlikely given the strong uptrend. With a beta of 1.11, Marriott is slightly more volatile than the market, meaning it tends to amplify market moves by about 11%, which is moderate for a cyclical stock.

Beta

1.11

1.11x market volatility

Max Drawdown

-12.8%

Largest decline past year

52-Week Range

$254-$411

Price range past year

Annual Return

+35.6%

Cumulative gain past year

PeriodMAR ReturnS&P 500
1m-3.3%+1.9%
3m+14.8%+14.0%
6m+18.9%+8.9%
1y+35.6%+20.1%
ytd+21.2%+10.2%

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MAR Fundamental Analysis

Marriott's revenue trajectory is steadily growing, with Q4 2025 revenue of $6.69 billion, up 4.1% year-over-year from $6.43 billion in Q4 2024. The multi-quarter trend shows consistent sequential growth: Q1 2025 revenue was $6.26 billion, Q2 $6.74 billion, Q3 $6.49 billion, and Q4 $6.69 billion, indicating a stable recovery. The fee-based revenue model, with management and franchise fees totaling $1.425 billion in Q4 2025, drives profitability, while reimbursements ($5.09 billion) are largely pass-through. The 4.1% YoY growth reflects resilient travel demand, supporting the investment case for steady, predictable expansion. Marriott is highly profitable, with Q4 2025 net income of $445 million and a gross margin of 16.5%, though this is compressed from 17.7% in Q4 2024 due to higher costs. The operating margin of 11.6% in Q4 2025 is stable compared to 11.7% a year ago, indicating cost control. Over the trailing twelve months, net income totaled $2.60 billion, and the net margin of 9.9% is healthy for the lodging industry, which typically sees single-digit margins. The company's asset-light model supports margin resilience. Marriott's balance sheet shows a debt-to-equity ratio of -4.53, reflecting negative shareholders' equity due to share buybacks, but this is common for mature companies. Free cash flow (TTM) is $2.90 billion, providing ample liquidity for dividends and debt repayment. The current ratio of 0.43 is low, typical for asset-light firms with strong cash generation. ROE is negative (-69.0%) due to negative equity, but ROA of 9.8% is solid, indicating efficient asset use. The company generated $829 million in operating cash flow in Q4 2025, covering capital expenditures of $172 million, with $657 million in free cash flow, demonstrating strong internal funding capacity.

Quarterly Revenue

$6.7B

2025-12

Revenue YoY Growth

+0.04%

YoY Comparison

Gross Margin

+0.16%

Latest Quarter

Free Cash Flow

$2.9B

Last 12 Months

Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)

Revenue Breakdown

Owned, Leased and Other
Reimbursements
Fee Service
Franchise
Management Service, Base

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Valuation Analysis: Is MAR Overvalued?

Since Marriott has positive net income, the primary valuation metric is the P/E ratio. The trailing P/E is 32.6x, while the forward P/E is 28.5x, implying the market expects earnings growth of about 14% over the next year. The gap between trailing and forward P/E suggests modest growth expectations are already priced in. Compared to the industry average P/E of 22x (based on available data), Marriott trades at a 48% premium, reflecting its superior brand portfolio, asset-light model, and consistent growth. The premium is justified by Marriott's higher net margin (9.9% vs. industry average of ~8%) and strong free cash flow generation. Historically, Marriott's trailing P/E of 32.6x is above its 5-year average of around 25x, indicating the stock is trading at the higher end of its valuation band. This suggests the market is pricing in optimistic expectations for continued travel demand and margin expansion. However, the PEG ratio of 2.35x implies the stock is not cheap on a growth-adjusted basis, as the P/E is more than double the earnings growth rate.

PE

32.6x

Latest Quarter

vs. Historical

High-End

5-Year PE Range -1100x~55x

vs. Industry Avg

N/A

Industry PE ~N/A*

EV/EBITDA

22.3x

Enterprise Value Multiple