Miteri Development Bank Limited
MDB
$438.70
-4.70%
MongoDB, Inc. is a leading provider of a modern, document-oriented database platform, offering both fully managed cloud services (MongoDB Atlas) and self-managed enterprise software (MongoDB Enterprise Advanced) that accelerate application development for organizations worldwide. As a pioneer in the NoSQL database space, MongoDB has established itself as a dominant player in the developer data platform market, with its free Community Server amassing over 500 million downloads since 2009, creating a massive grassroots developer community that drives enterprise adoption. The current investor narrative centers on MongoDB's robust growth trajectory, particularly the accelerating adoption of its Atlas cloud platform, which has been a key driver of revenue expansion, while the stock has experienced significant volatility amid broader tech selloffs and AI-driven market rotations, with recent strong earnings and guidance reinforcing confidence in its long-term growth story despite macroeconomic headwinds.…
MDB
Miteri Development Bank Limited
$438.70
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Investment Opinion: Should I buy MDB Today?
Rating: Hold. MongoDB is a high-quality growth company with a strong product and accelerating revenue, but the current price of $460.33 offers limited upside to the average analyst target of $396.21 (-13.9%). The consensus recommendation is 'Buy' with a mean score of 1.675, but the stock's valuation at 62.75x forward earnings and 12.25x sales already prices in substantial growth. Supporting evidence includes 25.25% YoY revenue growth, a 74.5% Atlas mix, positive EPS of $0.0552, and a strong balance sheet with a debt-to-equity of 0.011. However, the PEG ratio of 8.59x and the stock trading above the average target suggest the market is overly optimistic. The rating would upgrade to Buy if the stock pulls back to below $400 (near the average target) or if forward P/E compresses below 50x, while a downgrade to Sell would be warranted if revenue growth decelerates below 15% or if the company fails to maintain profitability. Overall, MongoDB is overvalued relative to its history and peers, but its growth prospects justify a Hold for long-term investors.
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MDB 12-Month Price Forecast
MongoDB's fundamentals are solid with accelerating revenue and a path to profitability, but the valuation is stretched, leaving limited upside in the base case. The stock's high beta and recent surge suggest potential for volatility. I would upgrade to bullish if the stock corrects to below $400 or if revenue growth re-accelerates above 30%, while a downgrade to bearish would occur if growth falls below 15% or if the company reports a loss again. Currently, the risk-reward is balanced, favoring a neutral stance.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Miteri Development Bank Limited's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $406.35 and implied upside of -7.4% versus the current price.
Average Target
$406.35
0 analysts
Implied Upside
-7.4%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$273 - $545
Analyst target range
MongoDB has coverage from 36 analysts, with a consensus recommendation of 'Buy' and a mean recommendation score of 1.675 (where 1 is Strong Buy and 5 is Sell). The average price target is $396.21, which implies a downside of -13.9% from the current price of $460.33, suggesting that the stock may have run ahead of analyst expectations. The target range spans from a low of $272.64 to a high of $545.00, with the low target implying a -40.8% downside and the high target implying an +18.4% upside. The wide spread between the low and high targets indicates significant uncertainty about MongoDB's future performance, reflecting the high-growth but volatile nature of the company. Recent institutional ratings have been predominantly positive, with firms like Needham, Truist, and B of A maintaining Buy ratings, while Mizuho and Barclays have Outperform and Overweight ratings, respectively, indicating a generally bullish sentiment among analysts despite the current price being above the average target.
Bulls vs Bears: MDB Investment Factors
MongoDB presents a compelling growth story with accelerating revenue, a dominant cloud platform, and a recent turn to profitability. However, the stock's valuation has run far ahead of fundamentals, trading above the average analyst target and at extreme multiples. The bull case rests on continued strong execution and market expansion, while the bear case hinges on valuation compression and potential growth deceleration. Currently, the bearish evidence is stronger due to the stretched valuation and limited upside to analyst targets, but the company's fundamental momentum could quickly shift the balance if growth continues to accelerate. The key tension is whether MongoDB can sustain its 25%+ revenue growth and expand margins enough to justify its premium valuation, or if the market's expectations have become too optimistic.
Bullish
- Revenue growth accelerating to 25.25% YoY: Q1 FY2027 revenue reached $687.6 million, up 25.25% year-over-year, with sequential growth from $549.0M to $687.6M over four quarters. This acceleration indicates strong market demand and successful execution, particularly in Atlas cloud services.
- Atlas now 74.5% of total revenue: Atlas generated $512.5 million in Q1, representing 74.5% of total revenue. This high-margin, recurring cloud business provides a scalable growth engine and deepens customer lock-in, supporting long-term revenue visibility.
- First profitable quarter with positive EPS: Q1 FY2027 reported net income of $4.4 million and EPS of $0.0552, a significant turnaround from losses in prior quarters. This milestone demonstrates improving operating leverage and validates the path to sustained profitability.
- Strong balance sheet with minimal debt: Debt-to-equity ratio is only 0.011, and current ratio is 4.65, indicating ample liquidity and financial flexibility. This low leverage reduces bankruptcy risk and supports continued investment in growth initiatives.
Bearish
- Stock trades 16.2% above average target: Current price of $460.33 exceeds the average analyst target of $396.21, implying a -13.9% downside. This suggests the market has priced in more optimism than analysts currently justify, increasing vulnerability to negative surprises.
- Extremely high valuation multiples: Forward P/E is 62.75x and PS ratio is 12.25x, far above industry norms. The PEG ratio of 8.59x indicates the stock is priced at a significant premium to its growth rate, leaving little room for error.
- High volatility with beta of 1.545: The stock is 54.5% more volatile than the market, amplifying both gains and losses. This makes it susceptible to sharp drawdowns during market selloffs, as seen in the -48.72% max drawdown over the past year.
- Analyst low target implies 40.8% downside: The low analyst target of $272.64 represents a -40.8% decline from current levels. This wide dispersion in targets highlights significant uncertainty about future performance and potential for severe downside if growth disappoints.
MDB Technical Analysis
MongoDB's stock is in a powerful uptrend, with a 1-year price change of +125.24%, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's +20.37% over the same period. The current price of $460.33 sits near the upper end of its 52-week range, at approximately 97.3% of the high of $473.10, indicating strong momentum and bullish sentiment. This positioning near the highs suggests the market is rewarding the company's growth prospects, though it also raises the risk of overextension and potential profit-taking. The stock's beta of 1.545 indicates it is 54.5% more volatile than the broader market, amplifying both upside and downside moves.
Beta
1.54
1.54x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-48.7%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$207-$473
Price range past year
Annual Return
+101.0%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | MDB Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +40.5% | +4.0% |
| 3m | +31.1% | +5.3% |
| 6m | +20.8% | +12.6% |
| 1y | +101.0% | +20.1% |
| ytd | +9.8% | +13.3% |
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MDB Fundamental Analysis
MongoDB's revenue trajectory is robust, with the most recent quarter (Q1 FY2027, ending April 30, 2026) reporting revenue of $687.6 million, a 25.25% year-over-year increase. This growth is accelerating, as the previous four quarters showed revenue of $695.1 million, $628.3 million, $591.4 million, and $549.0 million, respectively, indicating a consistent upward trend. The growth is primarily driven by MongoDB Atlas, which contributed $512.5 million in revenue, representing 74.5% of total revenue, while other subscription and service revenue added $153.7 million and $21.5 million, respectively. The accelerating growth, coupled with a strong product-market fit, supports the investment thesis of MongoDB as a high-growth software company.
Quarterly Revenue
$687616000.0B
2026-04
Revenue YoY Growth
+25.3%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
72.2%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$599503000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is MDB Overvalued?
Given MongoDB's positive net income of $4.4 million in the most recent quarter, the trailing P/E ratio is -421.97x (due to historical losses), but the forward P/E of 62.75x is more meaningful, reflecting the market's expectation of significant earnings growth. The gap between the trailing and forward P/E underscores the market's optimism about MongoDB's future profitability, as it implies a substantial increase in earnings. The PEG ratio of 8.59x suggests that the stock is priced at a premium to its expected growth rate, indicating that investors are paying a high price for future growth, which could be a risk if growth decelerates.
PE
-422.0x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
N/A
5-Year PE Range 17x~59x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
-993.0x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial risks include MongoDB's history of losses, with a trailing P/E of -421.97x and negative operating margin of -5.56% in the latest quarter. Although Q1 FY2027 showed a small profit, the company's reliance on continued growth to justify its valuation is precarious; any slowdown could lead to significant multiple compression. The company's free cash flow is positive at $599.5 million TTM, but the high cash burn in sales and marketing ($249.3 million in Q1) and R&D ($200.4 million) indicates ongoing heavy investment that may pressure margins if growth falters. Additionally, revenue concentration in Atlas (74.5%) exposes the company to risks if cloud adoption slows or competition intensifies in the database market.
FAQ
The key risks are: 1) Valuation risk: with a forward P/E of 62.75x and PEG of 8.59x, any growth disappointment could trigger a severe multiple compression. 2) Competitive risk: MongoDB faces intense competition from cloud giants like AWS (DynamoDB) and Azure (Cosmos DB), which could pressure market share. 3) Macro risk: with a beta of 1.545, the stock is highly sensitive to market downturns and rising interest rates, as seen in the -48.72% max drawdown. 4) Execution risk: the company's path to sustained profitability is still unproven, with negative operating margins of -5.56% in the latest quarter. These risks are ranked by severity, with valuation risk being the most immediate threat.
The 12-month forecast is mixed. In the bull case (25% probability), the stock could reach $545.00, a +18.4% upside, driven by strong earnings and AI tailwinds. In the base case (50% probability), the stock is likely to trade around the average target of $396.21, a -13.9% downside, as growth normalizes and valuation compresses. In the bear case (25% probability), the stock could fall to $272.64, a -40.8% downside, if growth decelerates sharply or macro conditions worsen. The most likely scenario is the base case, assuming MongoDB maintains ~20% revenue growth but the market re-rates the stock to more reasonable multiples.
MongoDB is overvalued relative to its own history and peers. The forward P/E of 62.75x and PS ratio of 12.25x are significantly higher than the software industry averages, and the PEG ratio of 8.59x indicates the market is paying a premium for growth. The stock trades at a 16.2% premium to the average analyst target, suggesting it has run ahead of fundamentals. This valuation implies the market expects sustained high growth and improving profitability, which may be optimistic given the company's history of losses. A fair value would be closer to the average target of $396.21, representing a -13.9% downside from current levels.
MongoDB is a good buy for investors with a high risk tolerance and a long-term horizon, given its strong growth and market position. However, at the current price of $460.33, the stock is trading above the average analyst target of $396.21, implying a -13.9% downside, and the valuation is rich at 62.75x forward earnings. The biggest risk is valuation compression if growth decelerates, which could lead to a -40.8% decline to the low target of $272.64. For investors who believe in the long-term AI and cloud data story, a pullback to below $400 would offer a better entry point. Otherwise, it's a hold for existing shareholders.
MongoDB is better suited for long-term investment (3-5 years) due to its high growth potential and market position, but it is not for short-term traders seeking stability. The stock's beta of 1.545 and recent 38.2% monthly surge indicate high volatility, making it risky for short-term trading. The company's earnings visibility is improving with positive EPS, but the lack of dividends and high valuation mean investors must rely on capital appreciation. A minimum holding period of 3 years is recommended to ride out volatility and allow the growth story to play out. Short-term traders could profit from momentum, but they face significant risk of sharp pullbacks.