MRSH

Marsh

$168.15

-2.88%
Apr 10, 2026
Bobby Quantitative Model
Marsh McLennan is a global professional services firm operating in the Financial Services sector, specifically within Insurance Broking and Consulting. It provides critical advice and solutions in risk, strategy, and human capital through its two main segments: Risk and Insurance Services (via Marsh and Guy Carpenter) and Consulting (via Mercer and Oliver Wyman). The company is a dominant market leader and consolidator in the global insurance brokerage and consulting industry, distinguished by its scale, global footprint, and entrenched client relationships. The current investor narrative centers on its resilience as a fee-based business model in a potentially volatile economic environment, with recent financial trends showing steady organic growth, though the stock's performance has been pressured by broader market dynamics and a relative underperformance compared to the surging equity market.

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MRSH 12-Month Price Forecast

Historical Price
Current Price $168.15
Average Target $168.15
High Target $193.3725
Low Target $142.9275

Wall Street consensus

Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Marsh's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $218.60 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.

Average Target

$218.60

6 analysts

Implied Upside

+30.0%

vs. current price

Analyst Count

6

covering this stock

Price Range

$135 - $219

Analyst target range

Buy
1 (17%)
Hold
3 (50%)
Sell
2 (33%)

The stock is covered by a limited set of six analysts, indicating it is a large-cap but perhaps less densely followed name within its sector. The consensus sentiment from recent institutional ratings leans neutral to cautiously optimistic, with actions including 'Overweight' (Barclays, Cantor Fitzgerald), 'Strong Buy' (Raymond James), 'Neutral' (Mizuho, Citigroup), and 'Market Perform' or 'Equal Weight' from others; the downgrade from Mizuho from 'Outperform' to 'Neutral' in late February 2026 is a notable recent shift. While a specific average target price and implied upside are not provided in the data, the range of analyst actions and the lack of a unified bullish consensus signal moderate conviction, with the wide array of ratings (from Strong Buy to Neutral/Market Perform) reflecting uncertainty or differing views on near-term catalysts and the stock's ability to close its performance gap with the market.

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MRSH Technical Analysis

The stock is in a sustained downtrend, evidenced by a 1-year price change of -4.73% as of the data date, which starkly contrasts with the S&P 500's 29.8% gain over the same period, resulting in severe relative weakness of -34.53%. Currently trading at $174.61, the price sits approximately 13% above its 52-week low of $164.89 but a significant 27% below its 52-week high of $239.34, positioning it in the lower third of its annual range and suggesting it is approaching a potential value zone, though the prevailing downtrend indicates persistent selling pressure. Recent short-term momentum shows further deterioration, with the stock down 5.22% over the past month and 4.73% over the past three months, aligning with and reinforcing the longer-term bearish trend; this consistent negative momentum, coupled with a beta of 0.749 indicating lower volatility than the market, suggests the stock is experiencing a steady, defensive decline rather than a sharp capitulation. Key technical support is clearly defined at the 52-week low of $164.89, while resistance looms much higher near the 52-week high of $239.34; a breakdown below $164.89 would signal an acceleration of the downtrend, whereas a sustained move above this recent trading range would be needed to suggest a trend reversal, with the stock's below-market beta implying it may offer some downside protection but has lacked participation in the broader market rally.

Beta

0.75

0.75x market volatility

Max Drawdown

-11.4%

Largest decline past year

52-Week Range

$165-$239

Price range past year

Annual Return

-8.3%

Cumulative gain past year

PeriodMRSH ReturnS&P 500
1m-3.3%+0.5%
3m-8.3%-2.1%
6m-8.3%+4.0%
1y-8.3%+29.5%
ytd-8.3%-0.4%

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MRSH Fundamental Analysis

Revenue growth remains positive but has shown deceleration from earlier highs; for Q4 2025, revenue was $6.595 billion, representing a solid 8.7% year-over-year growth, though this is a moderation from the stronger growth rates seen in Q1 and Q2 2025 (e.g., Q1 2025 revenue of $7.061 billion). The business is segmented, with the Risk and Insurance Services segment generating $3.907 billion and Consulting contributing $2.465 billion in the latest period, indicating both core divisions are substantial contributors. The company is highly profitable with expanding margins; Q4 2025 net income was $821 million, yielding a net margin of 12.45%, while the gross margin for the quarter was a healthy 40.29%, and the operating margin was 18.48%, demonstrating the firm's ability to convert revenue efficiently. The balance sheet and cash flow position are robust, supporting financial health and shareholder returns; the company generated substantial free cash flow of $5.001 billion on a trailing twelve-month basis, boasts a strong Return on Equity of 27.55%, and maintains a manageable debt-to-equity ratio of 1.42, indicating it funds its operations and growth while returning capital via dividends and buybacks.

Quarterly Revenue

$6.6B

2025-12

Revenue YoY Growth

+0.08%

YoY Comparison

Gross Margin

+0.40%

Latest Quarter

Free Cash Flow

$5.0B

Last 12 Months

Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)

Revenue Breakdown

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Valuation Analysis: Is MRSH Overvalued?

Given the company's consistent profitability with a positive net income of $821 million in the latest quarter, the primary valuation metric selected is the Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio. The trailing PE ratio stands at 21.72x, while the forward PE is notably lower at 15.42x, indicating the market expects meaningful earnings growth in the coming year to justify the current price. Compared to sector averages, Marsh trades at a premium based on its Price-to-Sales ratio of 3.35x and EV-to-Sales of 3.84x, though specific industry average data is not provided in the inputs for a quantified spread; this premium is likely justified by its market-leading position, high returns on equity, and stable cash flows. Historically, the stock's current trailing PE of 21.72x sits below the higher end of its own historical range seen in recent quarters (e.g., 33.12x in Q3 2025 and 36.73x in Q3 2024), suggesting the valuation has compressed and may be pricing in more conservative expectations relative to its recent past, potentially presenting a more attractive entry point for long-term investors.

PE

21.7x

Latest Quarter

vs. Historical

Low-End

5-Year PE Range 16x~44x

vs. Industry Avg

N/A

Industry PE ~N/A*

EV/EBITDA

14.8x

Enterprise Value Multiple

Investment Risk Disclosure