NDAQ

Nasdaq, Inc.

$82.49

-0.15%
Jun 23, 2026
Bobby Quantitative Model
Nasdaq, Inc. is a global technology company serving the capital markets and financial services industry, best known for operating its namesake equity exchange. Beyond its core trading business, the company has strategically diversified into three key segments: Capital Access Platforms (listings and index services), Market Services (trading and clearing), and Financial Technology (anti-financial crime and regulatory compliance software). As a market leader in exchange operations and financial data, Nasdaq is currently undergoing a significant transformation narrative, pivoting from a traditional exchange operator to a diversified financial technology and data powerhouse. The current investor debate centers on the success of its high-margin software acquisitions (Verafin and Adenza), its role in facilitating major upcoming IPOs like SpaceX under new 'fast entry' rules, and its pioneering efforts in blockchain-based settlement infrastructure, which could redefine market structure.

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NDAQ 12-Month Price Forecast

Historical Price
Current Price $82.49
Average Target $82.49
High Target $94.86349999999999
Low Target $70.11649999999999

Wall Street consensus

Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Nasdaq, Inc.'s 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $107.24 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.

Average Target

$107.24

6 analysts

Implied Upside

+30.0%

vs. current price

Analyst Count

6

covering this stock

Price Range

$66 - $107

Analyst target range

Buy
1 (17%)
Hold
3 (50%)
Sell
2 (33%)

Analyst coverage for Nasdaq is limited, with only 6 analysts providing estimates, which is relatively sparse for a large-cap company and can lead to higher volatility and less efficient price discovery. The consensus leans bullish, with recent institutional ratings from firms like JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley, and Barclays maintaining 'Overweight' or equivalent 'Buy' ratings, and TD Cowen upgrading from 'Hold' to 'Buy' in February 2026. The average revenue estimate for the coming period is $7.382 billion, with a range from $7.190 billion to $7.515 billion, and the average EPS estimate is $6.05, ranging from $5.85 to $6.19. The target price range implied by these estimates is wide, reflecting differing assumptions about the company's future. The high-end EPS estimate of $6.19 likely incorporates successful integration of technology acquisitions, robust IPO pipeline execution (including SpaceX), and margin expansion in the software segments. The low-end estimate of $5.85 may factor in potential cyclical slowdowns in capital markets activity, integration risks, or competitive pressures. The wide spread between high and low estimates signals meaningful uncertainty among analysts regarding the company's near-term earnings trajectory and the valuation of its strategic initiatives.

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NDAQ Technical Analysis

The stock is in a pronounced downtrend, with a 1-year price change of -4.78% and a more severe 6-month decline of -13.76%, significantly underperforming the S&P 500's 24.99% gain over the same period. As of the latest close of $82.24, the stock is trading at just 12% above its 52-week low of $77.09 and 19% below its 52-week high of $101.79, positioning it near the lower end of its annual range, which suggests a potential value opportunity but also reflects persistent negative momentum and selling pressure. Recent momentum is decisively negative, with the stock down 10.59% over the past month and 4.75% over the past three months, a sharp acceleration of the longer-term downtrend. This underperformance is starkly highlighted by its relative strength figures, showing a -29.77 lag versus the S&P 500 over one year and a -11.33 lag over one month, indicating the stock is being heavily sold off even as the broader market rallies. Key technical levels are clear, with immediate support at the 52-week low of $77.09 and major resistance at the 52-week high of $101.79. A decisive break below $77.09 would signal a continuation of the bearish trend, while a sustained move above $101.79 would be needed to reverse the narrative. The stock's beta of 0.974 indicates its volatility is nearly in line with the broader market, but its recent price action shows it has been a significant source of idiosyncratic risk and negative alpha for investors.

Beta

0.97

0.97x market volatility

Max Drawdown

-21.8%

Largest decline past year

52-Week Range

$77-$102

Price range past year

Annual Return

-4.9%

Cumulative gain past year

PeriodNDAQ ReturnS&P 500
1m-9.4%-1.6%
3m-1.5%+11.7%
6m-16.4%+6.3%
1y-4.9%+22.2%
ytd-14.7%+7.6%

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NDAQ Fundamental Analysis

Revenue growth has been modest but positive, with Q4 2025 revenue of $2.08 billion representing a 2.46% year-over-year increase. However, examining the quarterly trend reveals volatility: revenue dipped to $1.96 billion in Q3 before rebounding in Q4, and the full-year trajectory shows growth from $1.67 billion in Q1 2024 to the recent $2.08 billion. Segment data from a recent period shows Market Services ($1.04B) as the largest contributor, followed by Capital Access Platforms ($549M) and Market Technology ($497M), indicating a diversified but trading-dependent revenue base. Profitability is robust, with the company generating a net income of $519 million in Q4 2025, translating to a strong net margin of 24.95%. Gross margin was exceptionally high at 66.92% for the quarter, though it has shown quarterly fluctuations between 39% and 67% over the past two years, suggesting mix variability. The operating margin for Q4 2025 was a healthy 30.29%, demonstrating the company's ability to convert revenue into operating profit effectively. The balance sheet and cash flow position is solid, with a manageable debt-to-equity ratio of 0.81 and a current ratio of 1.005, indicating adequate short-term liquidity. The company is a strong cash generator, with trailing twelve-month free cash flow of $1.989 billion and an ROE of 14.63%, signaling efficient use of shareholder equity. The quarterly cash flow statement shows consistent positive operating cash flow, with $625 million generated in Q4 2025, funding dividends, share repurchases, and strategic investments without straining the financial structure.

Quarterly Revenue

$2.1B

2025-12

Revenue YoY Growth

+0.02%

YoY Comparison

Gross Margin

+0.66%

Latest Quarter

Free Cash Flow

$2.0B

Last 12 Months

Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)

Revenue Breakdown

Capital Access Platforms
Market Technology
Market Services

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Valuation Analysis: Is NDAQ Overvalued?

Given the consistently positive net income, the primary valuation metric is the Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio. The trailing PE ratio is 30.98x, while the forward PE is notably lower at 18.54x, indicating the market expects significant earnings growth in the coming year. The gap between trailing and forward multiples suggests analysts are forecasting a substantial increase in EPS, from a trailing figure around $2.65 (implied from price/PE) to a consensus estimate of $6.05. Compared to industry averages, Nasdaq trades at a premium. Its trailing PE of 30.98x is above typical financial data & exchange peers, and its Price-to-Sales ratio of 6.75x also indicates a premium valuation. This premium is likely justified by the company's high-margin, recurring revenue software segments, superior profitability metrics like a 21.77% net margin, and its strategic pivot to a technology-centric model, which commands higher multiples than pure-play exchange operators. Historically, the stock's current trailing PE of 30.98x sits above its two-year historical range, which has fluctuated between approximately 20x and 40x. Being near the higher end of its own historical band suggests the market is already pricing in a successful execution of its growth and transformation strategy, leaving less room for multiple expansion and increasing sensitivity to any earnings disappointments or growth deceleration.

PE

31.0x

Latest Quarter

vs. Historical

Mid-Range

5-Year PE Range 20x~40x

vs. Industry Avg

N/A

Industry PE ~N/A*

EV/EBITDA

20.6x

Enterprise Value Multiple