OWL

Blue Owl Capital

$8.91

-3.47%
Jun 23, 2026
Bobby Quantitative Model
Blue Owl Capital Inc. is a leading global alternative asset manager overseeing $307.4 billion in total assets under management, with a core focus on private equity, private credit, and real estate/real assets. The company has established itself as a major platform in the private markets, serving a client base of institutional investors and high-net-worth individuals. The current investor narrative is dominated by significant stress in the private credit sector, as evidenced by recent news headlines detailing Blue Owl's decision to cap redemptions on certain funds, which has raised concerns about liquidity and the broader health of alternative asset managers amidst a challenging economic backdrop.

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OWL 12-Month Price Forecast

Historical Price
Current Price $8.91
Average Target $8.91
High Target $10.2465
Low Target $7.5735

Wall Street consensus

Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Blue Owl Capital's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $11.58 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.

Average Target

$11.58

3 analysts

Implied Upside

+30.0%

vs. current price

Analyst Count

3

covering this stock

Price Range

$7 - $12

Analyst target range

Buy
0 (0%)
Hold
1 (33%)
Sell
2 (67%)

Analyst coverage for Blue Owl is limited, with only 3 analysts providing estimates, indicating this may be a less-followed name among large institutions which can contribute to higher volatility. The consensus leans bullish based on recent institutional ratings, which include actions like 'Strong Buy' from Raymond James and 'Outperform' from Oppenheimer and BMO Capital in March 2026, though there have also been notable downgrades such as Deutsche Bank moving from 'Buy' to 'Hold'. The target price range implied by revenue and EPS estimates is wide, with estimated revenue for the next period spanning from $3.65 billion to $3.97 billion and EPS from $1.17 to $1.30; this spread reflects high uncertainty around the company's near-term fundamentals, particularly regarding fund flows, fee-earning AUM stability, and the resolution of private credit sector stresses.

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OWL Technical Analysis

The stock is entrenched in a severe and sustained downtrend, evidenced by a staggering 1-year price change of -48.96% and a 6-month decline of -38.08%. With a current price near $9.53 and a 52-week range of $7.95 to $21.08, the stock is trading at approximately 10% above its 52-week low, positioning it deep in distressed territory and signaling either a potential value trap or a capitulation phase. Short-term momentum shows a slight divergence, with a 1-month gain of 1.06% and a 3-month gain of 4.50%, suggesting a tentative stabilization or dead-cat bounce after the precipitous fall earlier in the year, though this nascent recovery is dwarfed by the longer-term bearish trend. Key technical support is clearly defined at the 52-week low of $7.95, while resistance looms far above near the $21.08 high; a breakdown below $7.95 would signal a new leg down, whereas any meaningful recovery would need to overcome multiple overhead resistance levels. With a beta of 1.183, the stock is approximately 18% more volatile than the broader market, a factor that has amplified losses during the sell-off and necessitates careful risk management for any potential position.

Beta

1.18

1.18x market volatility

Max Drawdown

-60.4%

Largest decline past year

52-Week Range

$8-$21

Price range past year

Annual Return

-52.0%

Cumulative gain past year

PeriodOWL ReturnS&P 500
1m-11.4%-1.6%
3m-1.3%+11.7%
6m-42.4%+6.3%
1y-52.0%+22.2%
ytd-41.8%+7.6%

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OWL Fundamental Analysis

Revenue growth remains robust on a year-over-year basis, with Q4 2025 revenue of $755.6 million representing a 19.68% increase from the prior year's quarter; however, sequential quarterly revenue from Q1 to Q4 2025 shows a pattern of $683.5M, $703.1M, $728.0M, and $755.6M, indicating steady but not accelerating growth. Profitability is present but inconsistent, with Q4 2025 net income of $47.7 million and a gross margin of 62.0%, yet net income has fluctuated significantly across recent quarters ($7.4M, $17.4M, $6.3M, $47.7M), and the trailing twelve-month net margin is a thin 2.75%, highlighting earnings volatility and pressure on bottom-line conversion. The balance sheet shows moderate financial leverage with a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.75, but the company generates substantial cash flow, with free cash flow over the trailing twelve months of $1.20 billion and an operating cash flow of $382.9 million in Q4 2025, providing internal funding capacity; however, the current ratio of 0.95 indicates potential short-term liquidity constraints that warrant monitoring given the sector's redemption pressures.

Quarterly Revenue

$755596000.0B

2025-12

Revenue YoY Growth

+0.19%

YoY Comparison

Gross Margin

+0.62%

Latest Quarter

Free Cash Flow

$1.2B

Last 12 Months

Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)

Revenue Breakdown

Administrative Service
Asset Management
Management Service, Incentive
Digital Infrastructure
Net Lease

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Valuation Analysis: Is OWL Overvalued?

Given the company's positive net income, the primary valuation metric is the Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio. The trailing PE ratio is an extremely high 128.08x, reflecting the market's severe punishment of the stock price relative to depressed earnings, while the forward PE is a much lower 9.71x, indicating analysts expect a dramatic earnings recovery. Compared to sector averages, the stock's Price-to-Sales (PS) ratio of 3.52x and Price-to-Book (PB) ratio of 4.58x are not directly comparable without industry benchmarks, but the forward PE of 9.71x suggests the market is pricing in normalized profitability, though the premium or discount to peers cannot be quantified from the provided data. Historically, the stock's own valuation has compressed dramatically; the current trailing PE of 128.08x is down from over 452x in Q3 2025 but remains elevated compared to its 2024 range (69.5x to 153.9x), suggesting the stock is still pricing in significant uncertainty and potential earnings collapse rather than trading at a clear historical low.

PE

124.5x

Latest Quarter

vs. Historical

Low-End

5-Year PE Range -941x~18407x

vs. Industry Avg

N/A

Industry PE ~N/A*

EV/EBITDA

28.7x

Enterprise Value Multiple