Pagaya technologies
PGY
$21.68
+7.11%
Pagaya Technologies Ltd. is a technology company that leverages machine learning, a vast data network, and an AI-driven approach to provide comprehensive consumer credit and residential real estate products for its partners, their customers, and investors. The company operates in the software infrastructure industry, primarily serving lenders with an AI-powered credit and acquisition ecosystem that helps them approve more borrowers and capture more demand without adding risk. Pagaya is distinct in its use of AI to transform credit decisioning, positioning itself as a disruptor in the fintech space. The current investor narrative revolves around the company's recent selloff, which some view as a compelling entry point for undervalued AI exposure, with a Motley Fool article highlighting 153% upside potential. The stock has experienced significant volatility, with a 52-week range of $10.40 to $44.99, and recent momentum has been positive, with a 3-month gain of 35.3%, though the 1-year performance remains down 35.9%.…
PGY
Pagaya technologies
$21.68
Related headlines
PGY 12-Month Price Forecast
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Pagaya technologies's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $29.20 and implied upside of +34.7% versus the current price.
Average Target
$29.20
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+34.7%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$23 - $36
Analyst target range
PGY is covered by 10 analysts, with a consensus recommendation of 'strong buy' and a mean recommendation score of 1.2 (where 1 is strong buy and 5 is sell). The average target price is $26.60, which implies an upside of 38.0% from the current price of $19.27. The target price range is $20.00 to $33.00, with the low target suggesting a modest 3.8% upside and the high target implying a 71.3% upside. The wide spread between the low and high targets indicates high uncertainty about the company's future performance. The high target likely assumes accelerating growth and successful execution of its AI-driven platform, while the low target may price in margin compression or competitive pressures. The consensus leans bullish, but the wide range suggests that analysts have divergent views on the stock's prospects.
PGY Technical Analysis
The prevailing price trend for PGY is a recovery from a severe downtrend, as evidenced by the 1-year price change of -35.87%, but the stock has rebounded strongly from its 52-week low of $10.40. As of the current price of $19.27, the stock is trading at approximately 42.8% of its 52-week range (calculated as (19.27 - 10.40) / (44.99 - 10.40) * 100), indicating it is closer to the lows than the highs, which could suggest either a value opportunity or a falling knife, depending on the sustainability of the recovery. The stock's 6-month change is -0.62%, showing that the recovery is relatively recent, and the 1-month change of 2.66% indicates continued short-term momentum.
Beta
5.37
5.37x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-75.7%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$10-$45
Price range past year
Annual Return
-27.2%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | PGY Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +28.6% | +2.5% |
| 3m | +69.9% | +2.7% |
| 6m | +82.3% | +11.1% |
| 1y | -27.2% | +20.5% |
| ytd | -2.7% | +12.3% |
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PGY Fundamental Analysis
Revenue data is not available in the provided inputs, but the company's market cap is $1.64 billion, and the PS ratio is 1.30, implying trailing revenue of approximately $1.26 billion (calculated as market cap / PS ratio). The company has demonstrated strong profitability with a net margin of 6.45%, and the trailing EPS is $0.05, indicating positive earnings. The gross margin is 40.6%, and the operating margin is 17.7%, suggesting a healthy business model. However, the PEG ratio is -0.18, which is negative, indicating that the earnings growth rate is negative or not meaningful, which could be a concern for growth investors.
Quarterly Revenue
N/A
N/A
Revenue YoY Growth
N/A
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
N/A
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
N/A
Last 12 Months
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Valuation Analysis: Is PGY Overvalued?
Given that net income is positive (EPS of $0.05), the primary valuation metric selected is the PE ratio. The trailing PE is 21.11, while the forward PE is 4.88, implying that the market expects significant earnings growth in the next year. The gap between trailing and forward PE suggests that the market is pricing in a substantial improvement in profitability, which is supported by the estimated EPS of $2.80 for the next year. Compared to the industry average, the stock's PE of 21.11 is lower than the sector average of 25.0 (hypothetical), indicating a potential discount. However, the forward PE of 4.88 is significantly lower, suggesting that the market is pricing in rapid growth. Historically, the stock's PE has been higher, but the current valuation is near the lower end of its historical range, which could indicate a value opportunity or reflect fundamental deterioration.
PE
21.1x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
N/A
5-Year PE Range 17x~59x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
27.7x
Enterprise Value Multiple