Rubrik
RBRK
$97.91
+8.70%
Rubrik, Inc. is a leading data security and cyber resilience company that provides a cloud-native platform to help organizations protect, recover, and manage their data across hybrid and multi-cloud environments. As a pioneer in the cyber resilience space, Rubrik has carved out a distinct identity by integrating data backup with AI-driven threat detection and rapid recovery, positioning itself as a critical defense layer against ransomware and other cyber threats. The company's recent IPO in April 2024 and subsequent strong revenue growth have captured investor attention, but the narrative is now centered on its ability to sustain hyper-growth while transitioning to profitability, especially as AI-driven cyberattacks escalate and enterprises prioritize data security. With a market cap of approximately $14.7 billion and a growing subscription base, Rubrik is at the forefront of a cybersecurity arms race, though its path to profitability remains a key point of debate.…
RBRK
Rubrik
$97.91
Related headlines
Investment Opinion: Should I buy RBRK Today?
Rating: Buy. Rubrik's accelerating revenue growth (39% YoY) and improving margins make it a compelling growth investment, despite its high valuation. The consensus 'Strong Buy' rating and average price target of $95.41 (12.8% upside) support this view. The company's strategic position in cyber resilience, with AI-driven threats increasing demand, provides a strong tailwind.
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RBRK 12-Month Price Forecast
The AI assessment is bullish, driven by Rubrik's superior growth and improving profitability. The company is well-positioned in a high-demand cybersecurity niche, and the recent acceleration in revenue suggests momentum. However, the high valuation and negative profitability warrant caution. The stance would be upgraded to high confidence if operating margins turn positive or if revenue growth exceeds 40% for multiple quarters. Conversely, a downgrade to neutral would occur if growth decelerates below 25% or if losses widen unexpectedly.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Rubrik's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $95.41 and implied upside of -2.6% versus the current price.
Average Target
$95.41
0 analysts
Implied Upside
-2.6%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$85 - $115
Analyst target range
Rubrik is covered by 27 analysts, with a consensus recommendation of 'Strong Buy' and a mean recommendation score of 1.11 (where 1 is Strong Buy and 5 is Sell). The average price target is $95.41, implying an upside of 12.8% from the current price of $84.60. The distribution is overwhelmingly bullish, with no sell ratings, and recent actions from firms like BMO Capital, Stephens & Co., and DA Davidson have all been positive, indicating sustained confidence in the company's growth trajectory. The target price range spans from $85.00 to $115.00, with the low end near the current price, suggesting that even the most bearish analyst sees limited downside, while the high end implies a 36% upside. The wide spread of $30 reflects uncertainty about the pace of margin expansion and the competitive landscape, but the overall sentiment is clearly positive, with analysts expecting continued strong growth and a path to profitability.
Bulls vs Bears: RBRK Investment Factors
Rubrik presents a compelling growth story with accelerating revenue, expanding margins, and a strong strategic position in cybersecurity. However, the stock's high valuation and lack of profitability create significant risk. The bull case is currently stronger, driven by robust growth and analyst confidence, but the key tension is whether the company can achieve profitability before growth decelerates. The most important factor is the pace of margin expansion—if operating margins continue to improve as they have, the stock could re-rate higher; if not, the premium valuation could compress sharply.
Bullish
- Accelerating Revenue Growth: Rubrik's Q1 FY2027 revenue grew 38.99% YoY to $387.1M, up from ~20-30% growth in prior quarters, signaling strong demand for its cyber resilience platform. This acceleration is a key driver of the bull case, as it suggests the company is gaining market share in a high-growth niche.
- Expanding Gross Margins: Gross margin improved to 80.5% in Q1 FY2027 from 78.3% a year ago, reflecting strong pricing power and scalability. This expansion, combined with revenue growth, is a positive indicator for future profitability.
- Narrowing Losses: Net loss narrowed to $41.9M in Q1 FY2027 from $102.1M in the prior year quarter, a 59% improvement. Operating margin improved from -33.4% to -13.6%, demonstrating significant operating leverage as the company scales.
- Strong Analyst Conviction: With 27 analysts, the consensus is 'Strong Buy' (mean score 1.11) and the average price target is $95.41, implying 12.8% upside. No sell ratings and recent positive actions from BMO, Stephens, and DA Davidson reinforce confidence.
Bearish
- Unprofitability and Negative Margins: Despite improvements, Rubrik remains unprofitable with a net margin of -26.5% and operating margin of -26.2% (TTM). The path to profitability is uncertain, and any delay could pressure the stock.
- High Valuation Premium: At 8.35x trailing sales, Rubrik trades at a 67% premium to the software infrastructure industry average of ~5x. This premium is justified only if growth sustains; any slowdown could trigger multiple compression.
- Forward P/E of 130x: The forward P/E of 130x implies investors are pricing in a dramatic profitability inflection. If the company fails to meet these expectations, the stock could face significant de-rating.
- Negative Relative Strength: Over the past year, RBRK is down 7.8% while SPY is up 21.5%, underperforming by 29.3 percentage points. This suggests the stock has been out of favor despite strong fundamentals.
RBRK Technical Analysis
Rubrik's stock has exhibited a volatile yet broadly upward trajectory over the past year, with a 1-year price change of -7.8% masking significant intra-year swings. The current price of $84.60 sits at 84.8% of its 52-week range (low: $42.25, high: $99.75), indicating a recovery from the lows but still below the peak. This positioning suggests the stock is in a recovery phase, having rebounded strongly from a trough, yet it faces overhead resistance near the highs. The 52-week low was set in April 2026, and the subsequent rally has been robust, but the stock remains below its all-time high, reflecting lingering uncertainty about valuation and growth sustainability.
Beta
1.17
1.17x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-55.5%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$42-$100
Price range past year
Annual Return
+12.0%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | RBRK Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +16.0% | +2.4% |
| 3m | +61.9% | +4.7% |
| 6m | +77.6% | +11.7% |
| 1y | +12.0% | +21.3% |
| ytd | +29.7% | +13.4% |
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RBRK Fundamental Analysis
Rubrik's revenue growth is accelerating, with the most recent quarter (Q1 FY2027, ending April 30, 2026) reporting revenue of $387.1 million, a 38.99% year-over-year increase. This marks a significant acceleration from the prior year's growth rates, which were in the 20-30% range, driven by strong demand for its subscription-based data security solutions. The company's subscription revenue, which constitutes the vast majority of total revenue at $374.2 million, is growing rapidly as enterprises adopt its platform for cyber resilience. However, the company remains unprofitable, with a net loss of $41.9 million in the latest quarter, though this loss has narrowed dramatically from the $102.1 million loss in the same quarter last year, reflecting improving operating leverage. Gross margin is robust at 80.5%, up from 78.3% a year ago, indicating strong pricing power and scalability, but operating margin remains deeply negative at -13.6%, though it has improved from -33.4% in the prior year quarter.
Quarterly Revenue
$387068000.0B
2026-04
Revenue YoY Growth
+39.0%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
80.5%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$306457000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is RBRK Overvalued?
Given Rubrik's negative net income, the price-to-sales (P/S) ratio is the most appropriate valuation metric, and at 8.35x trailing sales, it reflects the market's high growth expectations. The forward P/E ratio of 130x, based on analyst estimates of positive EPS next year, implies that investors are pricing in a dramatic profitability inflection, which is a key risk if the company fails to execute. Compared to the software infrastructure industry average P/S of approximately 5x, Rubrik trades at a 67% premium, which is justified by its superior revenue growth (39% vs. industry average of ~15%) and its strategic position in the high-demand cybersecurity niche. However, the premium is stretched, and any slowdown in growth could lead to multiple compression. Historically, Rubrik's P/S ratio has ranged from 28x to 60x over the past two years, and the current 8.35x is near the bottom of that range, suggesting that the stock is trading at a significant discount to its own historical valuation, which may reflect the market's skepticism about its path to profitability or a de-rating due to the recent IPO lock-up expiry.
PE
-31.4x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
N/A
5-Year PE Range 17x~59x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
-72.4x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial risks are significant: Rubrik has a negative net margin of -26.5% and operating margin of -26.2%, indicating heavy losses. The company's debt-to-equity ratio is -2.18, reflecting negative equity due to accumulated losses, which could limit financial flexibility. While free cash flow turned positive at $306M TTM, the company still relies on external funding for growth, and any disruption in capital markets could impact operations. The current ratio of 1.69 provides some liquidity, but the negative equity is a red flag for long-term solvency.
FAQ
The key risks are: 1) Financial: Negative equity and ongoing losses, though improving, could limit financial flexibility. 2) Valuation: The high P/S and forward P/E leave little room for error; any growth miss could cause a sharp de-rating. 3) Competitive: The cybersecurity market is crowded, with players like CrowdStrike and Cloudflare, and Rubrik must differentiate to maintain growth. 4) Macro: With a beta of 1.17, the stock is sensitive to market downturns. The most severe risk is a prolonged growth deceleration, which could lead to a -50% drawdown, as seen in the max drawdown of -55.5%.
Analysts have a 'Strong Buy' consensus with an average price target of $95.41, implying 12.8% upside. The target range is $85-$115. Our base case (50% probability) sees the stock in the $85-$100 range over the next 12 months, driven by continued growth and margin improvement. The bull case (30% probability) targets $100-$115, while the bear case (20% probability) could see $60-$75 if growth disappoints. The most likely scenario is the base case, assuming revenue growth stays above 30% and operating losses continue to narrow.
RBRK trades at 8.35x trailing sales, a 67% premium to the software infrastructure industry average of ~5x. This premium is justified by its superior growth (39% YoY vs. ~15% industry) and strategic position in cybersecurity. However, the forward P/E of 130x implies high expectations for profitability. Compared to its own history, the current P/S is near the bottom of its range (28x-60x), suggesting the stock is undervalued relative to its past, but that range was set during the IPO hype. Overall, the stock is fairly valued to slightly overvalued, depending on execution.
RBRK is a good buy for growth-oriented investors who can tolerate high volatility. The stock offers 12.8% upside to the average analyst target of $95.41, and the consensus is 'Strong Buy'. However, the high valuation (8.35x sales) and lack of profitability mean it's not suitable for value or income investors. The biggest downside risk is a growth slowdown, which could lead to multiple compression. If you believe in the long-term demand for cyber resilience, RBRK could be a rewarding investment, but it's essential to size your position appropriately.
RBRK is better suited for long-term investment (3-5 years) due to its high growth potential and the secular trend in cybersecurity. The stock is highly volatile (beta 1.17) and has a max drawdown of -55.5%, making it risky for short-term trading. The company is still in its growth phase, with negative earnings, so patience is required. For long-term investors, the key is to monitor the path to profitability and revenue growth sustainability. A minimum holding period of 3 years is recommended to allow the growth story to play out.