Rubrik
RBRK
$93.05
-13.05%
Rubrik, Inc. is a leading provider of data security and cyber resilience solutions, offering a cloud-native platform that helps organizations protect, recover, and manage their data across hybrid and multi-cloud environments. The company operates in the software infrastructure industry, focusing on cyber posture and cyber recovery, and serves a diverse customer base ranging from mid-sized businesses to global enterprises. Rubrik has established itself as a key player in the rapidly growing data security market, distinguished by its AI-driven approach to threat detection and its ability to integrate with major cloud providers. The current investor narrative centers on the company's robust revenue growth, driven by increasing demand for cyber resilience in the wake of rising AI-powered cyber threats, as well as its recent earnings beat that has fueled optimism about its path to profitability.…
RBRK
Rubrik
$93.05
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Investment Opinion: Should I buy RBRK Today?
We rate RBRK as a Buy, driven by its strong revenue growth, improving profitability, and favorable industry tailwinds. The consensus Strong Buy rating and average target of $107.11 support this view, implying 15.1% upside from the current price. The company's accelerating growth (38.99% YoY) and high gross margin (80.1%) provide a solid foundation for long-term value creation.
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RBRK 12-Month Price Forecast
The AI-driven assessment is bullish, as Rubrik's growth metrics and financial health are strong, and the industry tailwind from AI-powered cyber threats is significant. However, the high valuation and lack of profitability introduce uncertainty, leading to a medium confidence level. The stance would be upgraded to high confidence if the company achieves profitability or if revenue growth accelerates further, while a downgrade would occur if growth decelerates or margins deteriorate.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Rubrik's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $116.30 and implied upside of +25.0% versus the current price.
Average Target
$116.30
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+25.0%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$90 - $135
Analyst target range
Rubrik is covered by 27 analysts, with a consensus recommendation of 'Strong Buy' and a mean rating of 1.11 (where 1 is Strong Buy and 5 is Sell). The average target price is $107.11, which implies an upside of approximately 15.1% from the current price of $93.05. The target range is $85.00 to $135.00, with the low target suggesting a potential downside of 8.7% and the high target implying a 45.1% upside. The consensus is clearly bullish, with no Hold or Sell ratings, and recent actions from firms like BMO Capital, Stephens & Co., and DA Davidson have been reaffirming or initiating Buy/Outperform ratings, indicating strong institutional confidence in the company's growth prospects.
Bulls vs Bears: RBRK Investment Factors
Rubrik presents a compelling growth story with accelerating revenue, improving margins, and a strong analyst consensus, but it trades at a premium valuation that leaves little room for error. The bull case is supported by the expanding cyber resilience market and the company's strong execution, while the bear case hinges on valuation risk and the ongoing path to profitability. The most critical tension is whether the company can sustain its ~39% revenue growth and achieve profitability faster than the market expects, as any disappointment could trigger a sharp de-rating given the high multiple. Currently, the evidence slightly favors the bulls due to the strong growth trajectory and positive free cash flow, but the risk-reward is balanced at current levels.
Bullish
- Revenue growth accelerating: Q1 FY2027 revenue grew 38.99% YoY to $387.07M, up from 35.6% in Q4 FY2026 and 27.5% in Q3 FY2026, showing clear acceleration. This is driven by strong demand for cyber resilience solutions, especially in the wake of AI-powered threats.
- Strong analyst consensus: 27 analysts rate RBRK a Strong Buy with a mean rating of 1.11 (1=Strong Buy, 5=Sell) and an average target of $107.11, implying 15.1% upside from the current price of $93.05. No Hold or Sell ratings exist, reflecting high institutional confidence.
- Improving profitability trend: Net loss narrowed to -$41.85M in Q1 FY2027 from -$86.97M in Q4 FY2026 and -$95.93M in Q2 FY2026, with net margin improving from -23.0% to -10.8%. Operating margin also improved to -13.6% from -21.8% in the prior quarter, indicating a clear path to profitability.
- High gross margin: Gross margin stands at 80.1% (trailing) and 80.6% in the latest quarter, reflecting a scalable software model. This high margin provides significant operating leverage as revenue grows, allowing for rapid margin expansion.
Bearish
- High valuation multiples: Trailing PS ratio is 8.35, and EV/Sales is 15.04, which are elevated compared to the software sector median. The forward PS of 3.37 is more reasonable but still implies high growth expectations that may not be met.
- Negative profitability: The company is not yet profitable, with a trailing PE of -31.43 and a net margin of -26.5%. While improving, sustained losses could pressure the stock if growth decelerates or if investors lose patience.
- High volatility and drawdown risk: Beta is 1.168, indicating higher volatility than the market. The stock has a max drawdown of -55.52% from its all-time high, and the recent 13.05% drop from $107.02 to $93.05 on August 28, 2026, shows how quickly sentiment can shift.
- Dependence on subscription growth: Subscription revenue accounts for 96.7% of total revenue ($374.15M out of $387.07M). Any slowdown in new subscription additions or churn could significantly impact growth, as product/service revenue is minimal.
RBRK Technical Analysis
Rubrik's stock has exhibited a strong uptrend over the past year, with a 1-year price change of 0.02% (essentially flat) but a remarkable 6-month gain of 79.08%. As of August 28, 2026, the stock closed at $93.05, which is approximately 86% of its 52-week range (between $42.25 and $107.91), indicating it is trading near the higher end of its range. This positioning suggests strong momentum and investor confidence, though it also raises concerns about potential overextension, especially after a recent pullback from its all-time high of $107.91.
Beta
1.17
1.17x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-55.5%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$42-$108
Price range past year
Annual Return
+0.0%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | RBRK Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +29.4% | +3.0% |
| 3m | +18.3% | +1.4% |
| 6m | +79.1% | +13.1% |
| 1y | +0.0% | +19.3% |
| ytd | +23.3% | +12.8% |
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RBRK Fundamental Analysis
Rubrik's revenue has been growing rapidly, with the most recent quarter (Q1 FY2027, ending April 30, 2026) reporting revenue of $387.07 million, a 38.99% year-over-year increase. This growth is accelerating, as the prior quarter (Q4 FY2026) saw revenue of $377.68 million, and the quarter before that (Q3 FY2026) had $350.17 million, indicating a consistent upward trajectory. The company's subscription and circulation revenue segment, which accounts for the vast majority of total revenue at $374.15 million, is the primary growth driver, while product and service revenue remains minimal at $12.92 million. This robust growth is driven by increasing demand for cyber resilience solutions, particularly in the wake of AI-powered cyber threats, as highlighted in recent news.
Quarterly Revenue
$387068000.0B
2026-04
Revenue YoY Growth
+39.0%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
80.5%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$306457000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is RBRK Overvalued?
Given that Rubrik's net income is negative (net income of -$41.85 million in the most recent quarter), the price-to-sales (PS) ratio is the most appropriate valuation metric. The trailing PS ratio is 8.35, while the forward PS ratio (based on estimated revenue of $3.26 billion for the next fiscal year) is approximately 3.37, implying a significant discount in forward valuation. This gap suggests that the market is pricing in substantial revenue growth, which aligns with the company's recent performance and the expanding cyber security market.
PE
-31.4x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
N/A
5-Year PE Range 17x~59x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
-72.4x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial risks are notable: Rubrik has a negative debt-to-equity ratio of -2.18, indicating negative equity, which is common for high-growth tech companies with accumulated losses. However, the company has a current ratio of 1.69, suggesting adequate short-term liquidity. The company is still loss-making, with a net loss of $41.85M in the latest quarter, though this is improving. The high dependence on subscription revenue (96.7%) is a concentration risk, as any churn or slowdown in new business could directly impact growth. Additionally, the company's valuation implies high expectations, and if growth decelerates, the stock could face significant downside.
FAQ
The key risks include: 1) Valuation risk: the stock trades at a high PS ratio, and any slowdown in growth could lead to a sharp decline. 2) Profitability risk: the company is still loss-making, and if it fails to achieve profitability as expected, the stock could suffer. 3) Competitive risk: larger players like CrowdStrike and Microsoft are increasing their focus on cyber security, which could pressure Rubrik's market share. 4) Macro risk: with a beta of 1.168, the stock is sensitive to market downturns, and a recession could reduce IT spending. The most severe risk is a combination of these factors, which could lead to a decline of up to 35% to the 52-week low of $42.25.
Based on our analysis, the 12-month forecast for RBRK is as follows: Bull case (30% probability) targets $120-$135, base case (50% probability) targets $100-$115, and bear case (20% probability) targets $75-$85. The base case aligns with the analyst average target of $107.11. The most likely scenario is the base case, which assumes continued strong growth but not a dramatic acceleration. The key assumption is that revenue growth remains above 30% and the company continues to improve margins.
RBRK's valuation is mixed: its trailing PS ratio of 8.35 is high, but its forward PS ratio of 3.37 is more reasonable, reflecting expected revenue growth. The EV/Sales ratio of 15.04 is also elevated, but this is common for high-growth software companies. Compared to its own history, the stock is trading near the high end of its 52-week range, but the forward valuation suggests the market is pricing in significant growth. Given the company's strong growth and improving profitability, the stock is arguably fairly valued, but any miss on growth could lead to a de-rating.
RBRK is a good buy for investors with a long-term horizon and a tolerance for volatility. The stock has a Strong Buy consensus with an average target of $107.11, implying 15.1% upside from the current price of $93.05. The company's revenue growth is accelerating at 38.99% YoY, and it has a high gross margin of 80.1%, indicating a scalable business model. However, the stock is not yet profitable, and its trailing PS ratio of 8.35 is elevated, so it is not suitable for value investors. If you believe in the long-term growth of the cyber security market and can withstand short-term fluctuations, RBRK is a compelling buy.
RBRK is more suitable for long-term investment due to its high growth potential and the expanding cyber security market. The stock has a beta of 1.168, indicating higher volatility, which makes it less suitable for short-term trading unless you are comfortable with significant price swings. The company is still in its growth phase, and it may take several years to achieve consistent profitability. A minimum holding period of 3-5 years is recommended to allow the company to realize its growth potential and for the market to recognize its value. Short-term traders might find opportunities in the stock's volatility, but the risk is higher.