Rigetti Computing, Inc. Common Stock
RGTI
$15.23
-0.33%
Rigetti Computing builds quantum computers and superconducting quantum processors, selling systems ranging from 9 to 108 qubits under the Novera and Cepheus brands, and offering cloud access via its Quantum Cloud Services platform. As a pure-play quantum computing company, it competes with IonQ and D-Wave in a nascent but rapidly evolving industry, distinguished by its in-house chip fabrication and hybrid cloud integration. The stock is currently driven by a mix of government funding catalysts—including a $100 million award from the Trump administration—and intense debate over cash runway, insider selling, and the timeline to commercial viability, as highlighted by recent news on a 2028 cash test and $857 million in insider stock sales across the sector.…
RGTI
Rigetti Computing, Inc. Common Stock
$15.23
Related headlines
RGTI 12-Month Price Forecast
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Rigetti Computing, Inc. Common Stock's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $30.07 and implied upside of +97.4% versus the current price.
Average Target
$30.07
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+97.4%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$20 - $40
Analyst target range
RGTI is covered by 11 analysts, with a consensus recommendation of 'Buy' (mean rating 1.75 on a 1-5 scale where 1 is Strong Buy). The average target price is $30.07, implying 113% upside from the current price of $14.11. The distribution leans bullish: recent ratings from Rosenblatt, Mizuho, Needham, and Benchmark are all Buy or Outperform, with no downgrades in the past six months. The target range spans from a low of $20.00 to a high of $40.00. The high target of $40 assumes successful commercialization, government contract wins, and potential multiple expansion as the quantum computing narrative gains traction. The low target of $20 still implies 42% upside, suggesting analysts see limited downside from current levels, though this may reflect a floor based on cash value or strategic assets. The spread between low and high ($20 to $40) is wide, indicating high uncertainty about the company's trajectory. Notably, all recent analyst actions have been reaffirmations or upgrades (e.g., B. Riley upgraded from Neutral to Buy in January 2026), signaling sustained institutional confidence despite the stock's decline. However, the lack of any price target cuts amid a 30% monthly drop raises questions about the timeliness of these targets.
Bulls vs Bears: RGTI Investment Factors
RGTI presents a high-risk, high-reward profile typical of pre-commercial quantum computing stocks. The bull case rests on explosive revenue growth (198.9% YoY), strong analyst support (113% upside to $30.07), and government funding that validates the technology. However, the bear case is equally compelling: a trailing P/S of 968x, negative gross margins, a cash runway under three quarters, and $857M in insider selling signal extreme speculation. The central tension is whether RGTI can achieve the massive revenue growth needed to justify its valuation before running out of cash. Currently, the bear case has stronger evidence given the unsustainable valuation and cash burn, but the stock could rally sharply on positive news. The single most important factor is the company's ability to secure additional funding or achieve commercial breakthroughs that extend the runway and validate the growth narrative.
Bullish
- Massive Revenue Growth Trajectory: RGTI's Q1 2026 revenue surged 198.9% YoY to $4.4M, from $1.47M in Q1 2025, demonstrating rapid top-line expansion. Analysts project full-year revenue of $223M, implying a forward P/S of ~30.7x, which could compress rapidly if growth sustains.
- Strong Analyst Consensus and Upside: 11 analysts rate RGTI a Buy (mean 1.75/5), with an average target of $30.07, implying 113% upside from $14.11. The low target of $20 still offers 42% upside, suggesting limited downside risk per analyst estimates.
- Government Funding Catalyst: RGTI received a $100M award from the Trump administration, validating its technology and providing non-dilutive capital. This funding extends cash runway and supports R&D without immediate shareholder dilution.
- Pristine Balance Sheet with Low Debt: Debt-to-equity is just 0.013 and current ratio is 37.4, indicating ample liquidity. The company has $48.1M cash with minimal debt, reducing bankruptcy risk despite negative free cash flow.
Bearish
- Extreme Valuation and Negative Margins: Trailing P/S of 968x is astronomically high, even for a pre-revenue quantum stock (IonQ trades ~100x). Gross margin is -28.1%, meaning the company loses money on every sale, and operating margin is -11.9%.
- Cash Burn and Limited Runway: Free cash flow was -$20.6M in Q1 2026 and TTM FCF is -$81.6M. With $48.1M cash, the company has less than three quarters of runway at current burn, necessitating future capital raises or dilution.
- Massive Insider Selling Signal: Insiders at quantum computing companies sold $857M in stock over two years with virtually no buying, a major red flag. This suggests those closest to the business see limited upside at current valuations.
- Sustained Downtrend and Technical Weakness: RGTI is down 30.3% in the past month and 75.7% from its 52-week high of $58.15. The stock trades near its 52-week low of $12.53, with negative momentum and a beta of 1.96 amplifying downside.
RGTI Technical Analysis
RGTI is in a sustained downtrend, with the stock falling 17.7% over the past year and currently trading at $14.11, just 24.3% above its 52-week low of $12.53 and 75.7% below its 52-week high of $58.15. The price sits near the bottom of its 52-week range, suggesting bearish sentiment and potential value trap risk, as the stock has lost over 75% from its peak. Short-term momentum is decisively negative: the 1-month change is -30.3% and the 3-month change is -28.8%, both far worse than the S&P 500's +0.3% and +4.7% over the same periods. This divergence—sharp short-term declines versus a more moderate 1-year drop—indicates accelerating selling pressure and a breakdown in the longer-term trend, with no signs of a reversal yet. The stock's beta of 1.96 implies it is nearly twice as volatile as the market, amplifying both downside risk and potential upside in any rally. Key support lies at the 52-week low of $12.53; a break below that could trigger further selling toward the next psychological level. Resistance is at the 52-week high of $58.15, but more immediate resistance is near $20, the top of the recent range. Given the high beta and deteriorating momentum, risk management is critical—any bounce may be sharp but short-lived.
Beta
1.96
1.96x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-77.1%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$13-$58
Price range past year
Annual Return
-1.3%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | RGTI Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | -28.8% | +0.4% |
| 3m | -9.7% | +5.5% |
| 6m | -35.1% | +8.4% |
| 1y | -1.3% | +18.9% |
| ytd | -35.5% | +9.6% |
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RGTI Fundamental Analysis
Revenue is growing rapidly but from a tiny base: Q1 2026 revenue was $4.4 million, up 198.9% year-over-year from $1.47 million in Q1 2025, though the sequential trend shows volatility (Q4 2025: $1.87 million, Q3 2025: $1.95 million). The company's revenue is driven by access to quantum computing systems, which contributed just $55,000 in the most recent segment data, indicating that the bulk of revenue likely comes from government grants and cloud services. While the YoY growth rate is impressive, the absolute revenue remains negligible, and the company is still pre-commercial, making the growth trajectory highly uncertain. The company reported a net income of $33.1 million in Q1 2026, but this was entirely due to a $59.1 million gain from other income (likely investment gains or government grants), masking an operating loss of -$25.95 million. Gross margin was deeply negative at -28.1%, meaning the cost of revenue exceeds gross profit, a sign of early-stage production inefficiency. Over the trailing twelve months, net income was negative, and the operating margin was -11.9%, though this improved from -12.1% in Q4 2025, suggesting slight operational leverage. The company has a pristine balance sheet with a debt-to-equity ratio of just 0.013 and a current ratio of 37.4, indicating ample liquidity. However, free cash flow was -$20.6 million in Q1 2026, and the TTM free cash flow is -$81.6 million, meaning the company is burning cash to fund operations. With $48.1 million in cash at the end of Q1 2026, the cash runway is limited—less than three quarters at the current burn rate—necessitating future capital raises or government funding to avoid dilution.
Quarterly Revenue
$4400000.0B
2026-03
Revenue YoY Growth
+198.9%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
-28.1%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$-81648000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is RGTI Overvalued?
Since net income is negative on a trailing basis (TTM net income of -$126.9 million), the P/E ratio is not meaningful. Therefore, we use the price-to-sales (P/S) ratio as the primary valuation metric. The trailing P/S ratio is 968x, while the forward P/S (based on estimated revenue of $223 million) is approximately 30.7x, implying the market expects massive revenue growth. The gap between trailing and forward P/S reflects aggressive growth expectations baked into the stock price. Compared to the industry average P/S ratio (data not provided), RGTI's trailing P/S of 968x is astronomically high, even for a pre-revenue quantum computing company. For context, IonQ trades at a P/S of around 100x, making RGTI nearly 10x more expensive on a sales basis. This premium is not justified by current profitability—RGTI has negative gross margins—and reflects speculative froth rather than fundamental value. Historically, RGTI's P/S ratio has ranged from 14.7x (Q4 2022) to 4,973x (Q3 2025). The current 968x is well above the historical median of roughly 200x, indicating the stock is trading at a significant premium to its own history. This suggests the market is pricing in optimistic future revenue growth, but any disappointment could lead to multiple compression and severe downside.
PE
-31.6x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Low-End
5-Year PE Range 4x~21x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
-32.8x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial & Operational Risks: RGTI's primary financial risk is its cash burn rate. With TTM free cash flow of -$81.6M and only $48.1M in cash, the company has less than three quarters of runway before needing to raise capital, likely through dilutive equity offerings. The negative gross margin of -28.1% indicates that the cost of revenue exceeds gross profit, a sign of early-stage production inefficiency. Operating losses are persistent, with Q1 2026 operating income of -$25.95M, and the company's net income of $33.1M was entirely due to a $59.1M gain from other income, masking underlying losses. Revenue concentration is also a risk, as the bulk comes from government grants and cloud services, with quantum system sales contributing only $55,000 in the most recent segment data.
Market & Competitive Risks: Valuation compression is a major threat, as RGTI's trailing P/S of 968x is nearly 10x that of IonQ (~100x) and far above its historical median of ~200x. Any disappointment in growth could trigger severe multiple contraction. The quantum computing sector is highly competitive, with well-capitalized players like IonQ (which swung to profitability) and Quantinuum (which recently IPO'd) potentially cannibalizing market share. Regulatory risk is moderate, but government funding dependence creates policy risk. With a beta of 1.96, RGTI is highly sensitive to macro conditions, and rising interest rates or a risk-off environment could compress growth stock multiples further. Recent news highlights a '2028 cash test' for quantum stocks, underscoring the sector's reliance on continued funding.
Worst-Case Scenario: In a severe downturn, RGTI could fail to secure additional funding, forcing a dilutive equity raise or even bankruptcy. The stock could also suffer from a loss of government support, competitive displacement by IonQ or Quantinuum, or a broader tech sell-off. The realistic downside is to the 52-week low of $12.53, representing an 11.2% decline from the current price of $14.11. However, if the company announces a dilutive offering or misses revenue estimates, the stock could fall below that level, potentially testing $10 or lower. In a worst-case scenario, investors could lose 30-50% of their investment, especially given the stock's high beta and speculative nature.