Rigetti Computing, Inc. Common Stock
RGTI
$14.03
-0.78%
Rigetti Computing, Inc. is a quantum computing company that designs and manufactures superconducting quantum processors and the integrated systems that power them, offering 9-qubit to 108-qubit machines under the Novera and Cepheus brands, along with its Quantum Cloud Services (QCS) platform for cloud integration. As a pure-play quantum hardware developer, Rigetti is a niche player in the emerging quantum computing industry, competing with larger technology firms and other specialized quantum companies. The current investor narrative centers on Rigetti's technological differentiation and government backing, highlighted by a $100 million CHIPS Act award in September 2026 that validated quantum computing's strategic importance. However, the stock is also weighed down by concerns over its lack of meaningful revenue, ongoing cash burn, and the need to secure funding to survive until 2028, as reflected in recent news headlines.…
RGTI
Rigetti Computing, Inc. Common Stock
$14.03
Related headlines
Investment Opinion: Should I buy RGTI Today?
Based on the synthesis, RGTI warrants a Hold rating. The core thesis is that while the company has promising technology and government backing, its extreme valuation (PS of 968) and lack of revenue growth (1.85% YoY) make it too speculative for most investors. The analyst consensus average target of $28.53 implies 103% upside, but the wide range ($17.30 to $40.00) and high uncertainty suggest significant risk. The stock is down 70% over one year, and without a clear path to profitability, it remains a high-risk bet on the future of quantum computing.
Supporting evidence for a Hold includes: 1) Revenue of $5.14 million in Q2 2026, up sequentially but only 1.85% YoY, indicating minimal commercial traction; 2) Negative net margin of -30.5% and free cash flow of -$87.6 million TTM, highlighting ongoing cash burn; 3) A strong balance sheet with current ratio of 37.42 and debt-to-equity of 0.013, providing some cushion; 4) Analyst optimism with 12 analysts covering and an average target of $28.53, but the recommendation is not a strong buy. Compared to peers, Rigetti's valuation is stretched, and its growth lags.
The biggest risks that could invalidate the thesis are: 1) Failure to secure additional funding, leading to dilution or solvency issues; 2) Slower-than-expected commercialization, with revenue growth remaining below 10%; 3) Increased competition from larger quantum players. The rating would upgrade to Buy if revenue growth accelerates above 20% YoY and gross margins stabilize above 40%, or if the company secures a major commercial contract. It would downgrade to Sell if cash burn accelerates, funding becomes unavailable, or revenue declines. Currently, the stock appears overvalued relative to its fundamentals, but the speculative nature and government backing create a binary outcome. Investors should wait for clearer signs of commercial traction before committing capital.
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RGTI 12-Month Price Forecast
Rigetti is a highly speculative quantum computing play with a binary outcome. The bull case relies on government funding and technological breakthroughs, while the bear case highlights the lack of revenue, massive cash burn, and extreme valuation. The stock is down 70% over one year and trades near its 52-week low, reflecting deep pessimism. However, the $100 million CHIPS Act award and analyst optimism provide some support. I would upgrade to bullish if revenue growth accelerates above 20% and gross margins stabilize, or downgrade to bearish if cash burn accelerates or funding becomes unavailable. Given the high risk, a neutral stance is appropriate until clearer commercial traction emerges.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Rigetti Computing, Inc. Common Stock's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $28.52 and implied upside of +103.3% versus the current price.
Average Target
$28.52
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+103.3%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$17 - $40
Analyst target range
There are 12 analysts covering Rigetti, with a consensus recommendation that leans bullish, as indicated by recent ratings from firms such as Rosenblatt, Needham, Mizuho, and Benchmark, all of which have Buy or Outperform ratings. The average target price is $28.525, which implies a potential upside of 103.3% from the current price of $14.03. This suggests that analysts see significant value despite the recent decline, likely driven by government contracts and technological progress.
The target price range is wide, from a low of $17.30 to a high of $40.00. The high target assumes successful execution on milestones, multiple expansion, and potentially accelerating revenue growth from government and commercial adoption. The low target prices in continued cash burn, dilution risk, and slower-than-expected commercialization. The spread of $22.70 between high and low targets signals high uncertainty and divergent views on the company's future. Recent institutional ratings show a mix of reiterations, with B. Riley Securities upgrading from Neutral to Buy in January 2026, indicating growing optimism, but the lack of recent upgrades may reflect caution ahead of key catalysts.
Bulls vs Bears: RGTI Investment Factors
The bear case currently has stronger evidence due to Rigetti's extreme valuation (PS of 968), severe cash burn (-$87.6 million FCF), and lack of commercial traction (1.85% revenue growth). The bull case rests on government backing ($100 million CHIPS Act award) and analyst optimism (103% upside to $28.53 average target), but these are forward-looking and unproven. The most critical tension is whether Rigetti can secure sufficient funding to survive until 2028 without massive dilution, as its current cash burn rate and negative margins make it dependent on external capital. If the company fails to achieve commercial milestones or secure additional government contracts, the stock could retest its 52-week low of $12.53.
Bullish
- Government Validation via CHIPS Act: The $100 million CHIPS Act award in September 2026 provides non-dilutive capital and validates Rigetti's technology as strategically important. This funding extends the cash runway and reduces near-term financing risk, as the company otherwise burns $87.6 million annually.
- Analyst Consensus Sees 103% Upside: 12 analysts cover RGTI with an average target price of $28.53, implying 103.3% upside from the current $14.03. The bullish ratings from Rosenblatt, Needham, Mizuho, and Benchmark suggest institutional optimism despite the stock's 70% one-year decline.
- Strong Balance Sheet with Minimal Debt: Current ratio of 37.42 and debt-to-equity of 0.013 indicate ample liquidity and virtually no leverage. This financial flexibility allows Rigetti to fund R&D ($20.7 million in Q2 2026) without immediate solvency concerns.
- Improving Sequential Revenue Trend: Revenue rose from $1.87 million in Q4 2025 to $4.4 million in Q1 2026 to $5.14 million in Q2 2026, showing sequential growth. While the base is small, the trajectory suggests early commercial traction.
Bearish
- Extreme Valuation with No Earnings: The trailing PS ratio of 968 and EV/Sales of 324.5 are astronomically high, especially with revenue growth of only 1.85% year-over-year. Negative net margin of -30.5% and forward PE of -68.1 highlight the lack of profitability.
- Severe Cash Burn and Dilution Risk: Free cash flow is -$87.6 million TTM, and the company relies on equity raises (e.g., $398,000 in Q2 2026) to fund operations. With no clear path to profitability, further dilution is likely, as evidenced by a 79% increase in shares outstanding from 184.7 million in Q4 2024 to 333.2 million in Q2 2026.
- Deep Downtrend and Underperformance: The stock is down 70.2% over one year and 40.6% YTD, trading just 3.3% above its 52-week low of $12.53. Relative strength versus the S&P 500 is -86.2% over one year, indicating persistent weakness and negative momentum.
- Insider Selling Signals Caution: Insiders have sold $857 million in quantum computing stocks over two years with virtually no buying, according to a June 2026 report. This lack of insider confidence is a red flag for retail investors.
RGTI Technical Analysis
Rigetti's stock is in a pronounced downtrend, with a 1-year price change of -70.22% and a year-to-date decline of -40.55%. The current price of $14.03 sits at just 3.3% above its 52-week low of $12.53 and 75.9% below its 52-week high of $58.15, placing it near the bottom of its 52-week range. This positioning suggests the stock is deeply out of favor and could be a value trap or a falling knife, as it has not yet shown signs of stabilization.
Short-term momentum remains negative, with a 1-month decline of -7.94% and a 3-month decline of -15.18%, both worse than the longer-term 1-year trend. The 6-month change of -4.43% indicates that the pace of decline has accelerated recently, diverging from the longer-term downtrend. Relative strength versus the S&P 500 is severely negative across all periods, with a 1-month relative strength of -10.06% and a 1-year relative strength of -86.22%, highlighting significant underperformance. Volume data is not available for analysis, but the lack of positive momentum suggests continued selling pressure.
Key technical levels include support at the 52-week low of $12.53 and resistance at the 52-week high of $58.15. A breakdown below $12.53 would likely signal further downside and potential capitulation, while a breakout above resistance would require a substantial rally of over 300% and seems highly improbable without a fundamental catalyst. The stock's beta of 2.027 indicates it is more than twice as volatile as the broader market, meaning investors should be prepared for amplified price swings and should size positions accordingly.
Beta
2.03
2.03x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-77.1%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$13-$58
Price range past year
Annual Return
-70.2%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | RGTI Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | -7.9% | +1.9% |
| 3m | -15.2% | +3.9% |
| 6m | -4.4% | +12.1% |
| 1y | -70.2% | +19.2% |
| ytd | -40.6% | +14.2% |
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RGTI Fundamental Analysis
Rigetti's revenue trajectory is weak, with the most recent quarter (Q2 2026) reporting revenue of $5.138 million, representing a year-over-year growth of 1.85%. This follows Q1 2026 revenue of $4.4 million and Q4 2025 revenue of $1.868 million, showing some sequential improvement but from a very low base. The company's revenue is primarily derived from access to quantum computing systems, which contributed only $88,000 in the latest period, indicating a lack of commercial traction. The growth trend is not yet sustainable, and the investment case hinges on future government contracts and technological breakthroughs rather than current revenue.
Profitability remains elusive, with a net loss of $52.606 million in Q2 2026 and a net margin of -30.50%. Gross margin was 42.58% in Q2 2026, but this fluctuates significantly, as seen in Q1 2026 when gross margin was -28.11%. The company's operating margin is deeply negative at -11.94%, and it continues to invest heavily in research and development, which totaled $20.728 million in Q2 2026. Without a clear path to profitability, the company relies on external funding to sustain operations.
The balance sheet shows a current ratio of 37.42, indicating ample short-term liquidity, but this is largely due to high cash reserves from equity raises. Debt-to-equity is very low at 0.013, but free cash flow is negative at -$87.582 million on a trailing twelve-month basis, and return on equity is -39.58%. The company is not generating enough cash to fund growth internally and depends on financing, as evidenced by $398,000 in common stock issued in Q2 2026 and significant stock-based compensation of $7.02 million. The cash burn rate raises concerns about future dilution.
Quarterly Revenue
$5138000.0B
2026-06
Revenue YoY Growth
+185.3%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
42.6%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$-87582000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is RGTI Overvalued?
Since Rigetti has negative net income, the PE ratio is not meaningful, and the PS ratio is the primary metric. The trailing PS ratio is 968.01, and the forward PS ratio is not directly available but can be inferred from the forward PE of -68.11, which is also negative. The EV/Sales ratio is 324.53, reflecting the company's high enterprise value relative to its minimal revenue. The gap between trailing and forward metrics is not applicable due to negative earnings, but the market is clearly pricing in substantial future growth that is not yet reflected in current financials.
Compared to the industry, Rigetti's valuation multiples are astronomically high. The PS ratio of 968.01 is far above the typical technology sector average, which is often in the single digits to low double digits. Even among high-growth quantum computing peers, Rigetti's valuation appears stretched, especially considering its revenue growth of only 1.85% year-over-year. The premium is not justified by current fundamentals and instead reflects speculative optimism about the future of quantum computing and potential government contracts.
Historically, Rigetti's PS ratio has been extremely volatile, ranging from 14.67 in Q4 2022 to 4,973.02 in Q3 2025. The current PS of 968.01 is near the lower end of its historical range but still represents a massive premium to any reasonable benchmark. This suggests that while the stock has corrected significantly, it remains expensive relative to its own history and the broader market, indicating that investors are still pricing in optimistic expectations that may not materialize.
PE
-31.6x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
N/A
5-Year PE Range 17x~59x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
-32.8x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Rigetti faces significant financial and operational risks. The company reported a net loss of $52.6 million in Q2 2026, with a net margin of -30.5% and negative operating margin of -11.9%. Free cash flow is deeply negative at -$87.6 million TTM, and despite a current ratio of 37.42, the company relies on equity raises to fund operations, leading to dilution risk. Revenue is minimal at $5.14 million in Q2 2026, with only $88,000 from quantum computing system access, indicating a lack of commercial traction. The gross margin is volatile, swinging from -28.1% in Q1 2026 to 42.6% in Q2 2026, which complicates forecasting. Without a clear path to profitability, Rigetti's survival depends on securing additional funding, as highlighted by the 2028 cash test mentioned in recent news.
Market and competitive risks are pronounced. The stock trades at a PS ratio of 968 and EV/Sales of 324.5, far above typical technology sector multiples, leaving it vulnerable to valuation compression. Beta of 2.027 means it is more than twice as volatile as the broader market, amplifying downside during sector rotations. Competition from larger players like IonQ and D-Wave, as well as tech giants, could erode Rigetti's niche. Recent news notes that insider selling of $857 million in quantum stocks over two years signals waning confidence. Additionally, the $100 million CHIPS Act award, while positive, is not unique, as rivals received similar grants, reducing its competitive advantage.
The worst-case scenario involves Rigetti failing to secure additional funding or commercial contracts, leading to a cash crunch before 2028. This could force massive dilution or even bankruptcy, driving the stock to its 52-week low of $12.53 or below. From the current price of $14.03, that represents a decline of approximately 10.7%. However, if the company's technology fails to gain traction and sentiment deteriorates further, the stock could fall below its historical low, especially given the max drawdown of -77.1%. The analyst low target of $17.30 is above the current price, but in a severe bear case, the stock could test single digits, implying a potential loss of 30% or more from current levels.
FAQ
The key risks include: 1) Financial risk: The company burns $87.6 million annually and has no clear path to profitability, necessitating further equity raises and dilution. 2) Competitive risk: Larger players like IonQ and D-Wave, as well as tech giants, could dominate the quantum computing market, leaving Rigetti as a niche player. 3) Macro risk: With a beta of 2.027, the stock is highly sensitive to market downturns and sector rotations away from speculative tech. 4) Company-specific risk: Insider selling of $857 million in quantum stocks over two years signals waning confidence, and the company's survival depends on securing funding until 2028. These risks are ranked from highest to lowest severity.
The 12-month forecast is highly uncertain. The bull case (25% probability) targets $28.53 to $40.00, assuming successful execution and additional government contracts. The base case (50% probability) targets $17.30 to $28.53, with modest revenue growth and continued cash burn. The bear case (25% probability) targets $12.53 to $17.30, reflecting funding challenges and dilution. The most likely scenario is the base case, where the stock trades in a range as the company makes incremental progress but remains unprofitable. The key assumption is that Rigetti secures enough funding to survive without massive dilution.
RGTI is significantly overvalued based on traditional metrics. Its trailing PS ratio of 968 and EV/Sales of 324.5 are far above the technology sector average, which is typically in the single digits to low double digits. Even among high-growth quantum peers, these multiples are stretched, especially with revenue growth of only 1.85% YoY. The market is pricing in substantial future growth that may not materialize, implying that investors are paying a huge premium for uncertain prospects. Compared to its own history, the PS ratio has ranged from 14.67 to 4,973, so current levels are near the lower end but still elevated.
RGTI is not a good buy for most investors due to its extreme valuation (PS ratio of 968), lack of revenue growth (1.85% YoY), and significant cash burn (-$87.6 million TTM). However, for risk-tolerant investors seeking exposure to quantum computing, it could be a speculative buy given the 103% upside to the analyst average target of $28.53. The biggest downside risk is dilution or failure to secure funding, which could drive the stock below its 52-week low of $12.53. A small position size is essential, and only investors with a high risk tolerance should consider it.
RGTI is more suitable for long-term investment, but only for risk-tolerant investors. The company is in the early stages of commercializing quantum computing, and meaningful revenue and profitability are likely years away. Short-term trading is extremely risky due to high volatility (beta of 2.027) and lack of near-term catalysts. The stock does not pay dividends, and earnings visibility is low. A minimum holding period of 3-5 years is suggested to allow for potential technological breakthroughs and market adoption. Investors should be prepared for significant price swings and potential losses.