SPG

Simon Property Group

$0.00

+1.37%
Jul 2, 2026
Bobby Quantitative Model
Simon Property Group, Inc. is the largest retail real estate investment trust (REIT) in the United States, operating a diversified portfolio of premier shopping, dining, entertainment, and mixed-use destinations. Its portfolio includes 254 properties encompassing traditional malls, premium outlets, Mills centers, and lifestyle centers, distinguished by its high average sales per square foot of $736 and significant international investments, including a stake in European retail company Klépierre. The current investor narrative centers on the resilience and recovery of high-quality retail real estate, with attention focused on the company's ability to drive occupancy, tenant sales, and rental growth amidst evolving consumer habits and economic conditions, as evidenced by recent strong quarterly revenue growth.

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SPG 12-Month Price Forecast

Historical Price
Current Price $226.06
Average Target $226.06
High Target $259.969
Low Target $192.151

Wall Street consensus

Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Simon Property Group's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $0.00 and implied upside of — versus the current price.

Average Target

$0.00

3 analysts

Implied Upside

vs. current price

Analyst Count

3

covering this stock

Price Range

$0 - $0

Analyst target range

Buy
0 (0%)
Hold
1 (33%)
Sell
2 (67%)

Analyst coverage for SPG is limited in the provided dataset, with only 3 analysts providing estimates for revenue and EPS, but no consensus price target or recommendation distribution is available. The average revenue estimate for the upcoming period is $8.72 billion, with a range from $8.25 billion to $8.97 billion, and the average EPS estimate is $7.33. Without a consensus price target, calculating implied upside or downside is not possible, and the overall sentiment cannot be quantified from the given data. The implications of limited visible analyst coverage in this dataset are significant; it may indicate that the stock, despite its large market cap, has consolidated coverage among a few firms, or that the data source is incomplete. A wide range in EPS estimates ($6.82 to $7.61) suggests some degree of uncertainty in near-term profitability forecasts. The recent institutional ratings show a pattern of neutral to hold recommendations from major firms like JP Morgan, Citigroup, and Barclays, with only Piper Sandler maintaining an Overweight rating, pointing to a generally cautious but stable analyst stance.

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SPG Technical Analysis

The stock is in a powerful, sustained uptrend, evidenced by a 41.28% gain over the past year. As of the latest close at $226.89, the price is trading near the top of its 52-week range, approximately 97% of the way towards its 52-week high of $228.575, indicating strong momentum but also potential overextension and vulnerability to a pullback from resistance. Recent momentum has accelerated sharply, with the stock gaining 9.73% over the past month and 25.92% over the past three months, significantly outpacing the broader market's returns of -2.86% and 14.97% respectively over the same periods, highlighting exceptional relative strength. The key technical levels are clearly defined, with immediate resistance at the 52-week high of $228.575 and support at the 52-week low of $158.00. A decisive breakout above the $228.58 resistance would signal a continuation of the bullish trend and could open the door to further gains, while a failure here may lead to consolidation. The stock exhibits high volatility, with a beta of 1.346, meaning it is approximately 35% more volatile than the SPY; this elevated beta is characteristic of the REIT sector and necessitates careful risk management and position sizing for investors.

Beta

1.33

1.33x market volatility

Max Drawdown

-12.6%

Largest decline past year

52-Week Range

$159-$229

Price range past year

Annual Return

+36.3%

Cumulative gain past year

PeriodSPG ReturnS&P 500
1m+11.1%-1.3%
3m+19.8%+13.6%
6m+22.9%+9.0%
1y+36.3%+19.1%
ytd+22.9%+9.2%

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SPG Fundamental Analysis

Revenue growth has been robust and accelerating. For Q4 2025, revenue reached $1.79 billion, representing a 13.22% year-over-year increase. This follows a sequential trend of quarterly revenue growth from $1.47 billion in Q1 2025 to the Q4 peak, indicating strong underlying demand and portfolio performance. The company's entire revenue is derived from its Real Estate Segment, valued at $3.20 billion for the period, which is the sole driver of this top-line expansion, underscoring the health of its core property operations. Profitability is exceptionally strong, with net income for Q4 2025 at $3.05 billion and a trailing net margin of 72.51%. Gross margins remain high at 85.72%, reflecting the company's premium property portfolio and pricing power. The Q4 2025 gross margin was even higher at 91.37%, demonstrating significant margin expansion in the most recent period. This level of profitability, particularly the net margin, is extraordinary for a REIT and is likely driven by significant one-time gains or accounting items, as typical REIT profitability is measured more by Funds From Operations (FFO). The balance sheet carries significant leverage, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 5.60, which is common for capital-intensive REITs but indicates elevated financial risk. However, the company generates substantial cash flow, with trailing twelve-month free cash flow of $3.24 billion and an operating cash flow of $1.21 billion in Q4 2025 alone. The current ratio is low at 0.16, suggesting limited short-term liquidity, but this is typical for REITs that hold assets, not cash. The high Return on Equity (ROE) of 88.61% is impressive but is also magnified by the high leverage.

Quarterly Revenue

$1.8B

2025-12

Revenue YoY Growth

+0.13%

YoY Comparison

Gross Margin

+0.91%

Latest Quarter

Free Cash Flow

$3.2B

Last 12 Months

Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)

Revenue Breakdown

Real Estate Segment

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Valuation Analysis: Is SPG Overvalued?

Given the company's substantial positive net income, the primary valuation metric is the Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio. The trailing PE ratio is 13.09x, while the forward PE is significantly higher at 33.58x. This substantial gap suggests the market is pricing in a sharp decline in earnings over the next year, which aligns with the likelihood that the recent extraordinarily high net income includes non-recurring items. Compared to sector averages, the stock's valuation presents a mixed picture. Its Price-to-Sales (PS) ratio of 9.48x and EV-to-Sales of 15.51x are high, indicating a premium valuation for its revenue base. The EV-to-EBITDA of 11.29x is a more standard metric for REITs. The premium is likely justified by its market-leading position, high-quality assets, and strong sales per square foot, but the forward PE expansion signals caution on future earnings sustainability. Historically, the current trailing PE of 13.09x sits well below the stock's own historical range observed in recent quarters, where PE ratios have fluctuated dramatically from as low as 4.95x to over 32x. This suggests the current valuation is not at an extreme high relative to its own history, but the low multiple may reflect the market's skepticism about the repeatability of recent extraordinary earnings rather than a deep value opportunity.

PE

13.1x

Latest Quarter

vs. Historical

Low-End

5-Year PE Range 5x~33x

vs. Industry Avg

N/A

Industry PE ~N/A*

EV/EBITDA

11.3x

Enterprise Value Multiple