URI

United Rentals

$927.62

-1.79%
May 19, 2026
Bobby Quantitative Model
United Rentals, Inc. is the world's largest equipment rental company, operating a vast fleet of aerial platforms, forklifts, excavators, and other machinery primarily across the United States and Canada. The company is a dominant market leader in a highly fragmented industry, leveraging its scale and extensive network of nearly 1,600 locations to serve a diverse customer base in general industrial, commercial, and residential construction. The current investor narrative is intensely focused on the company's exposure to booming data center construction and broader non-residential demand, a theme underscored by a recent stock surge following a significant earnings beat and robust forward guidance.

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URI 12-Month Price Forecast

Historical Price
Current Price $927.62
Average Target $927.62
High Target $1066.763
Low Target $788.477

Wall Street consensus

Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on United Rentals's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $1205.91 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.

Average Target

$1205.91

9 analysts

Implied Upside

+30.0%

vs. current price

Analyst Count

9

covering this stock

Price Range

$742 - $1206

Analyst target range

Buy
2 (22%)
Hold
4 (44%)
Sell
3 (33%)

The stock is covered by 9 analysts, indicating solid institutional interest. While a precise Buy/Hold/Sell distribution is not provided, the institutional ratings data shows a consistent pattern of reiterated bullish calls from major firms like Citigroup, JP Morgan, RBC Capital, and Wells Fargo throughout late 2025 and early 2026, including an upgrade from UBS from Neutral to Buy in January 2026. This pattern strongly suggests the consensus sentiment is bullish. The average revenue estimate for the upcoming period is $19.83 billion, with a tight range between $19.80B and $19.86B, showing high conviction on the top-line. The average EPS estimate is $60.68, with a wider range from $54.49 to $68.57. The wide EPS target range signals some uncertainty or differing models regarding the pace of margin expansion and earnings leverage. The high target likely assumes sustained high utilization rates, pricing power, and successful integration of specialty rentals, while the low target may factor in potential economic slowdowns impacting construction activity or rising interest rates affecting fleet financing costs.

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Bulls vs Bears: URI Investment Factors

Overall, URI has investment potential but also faces challenges. Here are key factors to weigh before investing.

Bullish

  • Strong Earnings Beat & Robust Guidance: The stock surged over 20% on April 23, 2026, following a significant earnings beat and strong forward guidance, directly tied to booming data center and non-residential construction demand. This event demonstrates the company's ability to capitalize on a key secular growth trend and has reset investor expectations higher.
  • Dominant Market Leader with Pricing Power: As the world's largest equipment rental company with a 16% market share in a fragmented industry, URI benefits from significant scale. This is reflected in its stable and healthy gross margin of 35.24% in Q4 2025, which has fluctuated in a tight 33-37% range over eight quarters, indicating strong pricing discipline and operational efficiency.
  • High Profitability and Return on Equity: The company generates substantial profits, with a Q4 2025 net margin of 15.5% and a trailing Return on Equity of 27.81%. This high ROE, coupled with a forward P/E of 17.86x, suggests the market is valuing a high-quality, profitable business at a reasonable forward earnings multiple.
  • Analyst Consensus is Bullish: Coverage by 9 analysts shows a consistent pattern of bullish calls, including an upgrade from UBS in January 2026. The average analyst EPS estimate for the upcoming period is $60.68, implying significant growth from the trailing performance and underpinning the positive sentiment.

Bearish

    URI Technical Analysis

    The stock is in a volatile but sustained uptrend over the past year, evidenced by a 34.74% 1-year price change. As of the latest close at $961.15, the price is trading approximately 58% above its 52-week low of $681.98 and about 6% below its 52-week high of $1021.47, positioning it near the upper end of its annual range. This proximity to highs suggests strong underlying momentum but also raises questions about potential overextension, especially given the stock's high beta of 1.83, indicating it is roughly 83% more volatile than the broader market. Recent momentum has been exceptionally strong, with a 25.59% gain over the past month, significantly outpacing the S&P 500's 5.6% rise. This short-term acceleration contrasts with a more modest 10.53% gain over the past three months, indicating a recent surge in buying pressure that may be driven by the positive earnings catalyst from late April. The stock's relative strength index (RSI) data is not available, but the dramatic price jump from around $800 to over $986 on April 23rd on high volume confirms a powerful bullish breakout. Key technical support now resides near the recent pre-earnings levels around $730-$780, which also aligns with the March lows. Immediate resistance is at the 52-week high of $1021.47; a decisive breakout above this level could signal a continuation of the uptrend, while a failure could lead to consolidation. The high beta underscores that while the stock offers significant upside potential, it also carries elevated risk, necessitating careful position sizing.

    Beta

    1.83

    1.83x market volatility

    Max Drawdown

    -30.4%

    Largest decline past year

    52-Week Range

    $682-$1021

    Price range past year

    Annual Return

    +28.1%

    Cumulative gain past year

    PeriodURI ReturnS&P 500
    1m+16.5%+3.3%
    3m+5.4%+6.9%
    6m+20.5%+12.4%
    1y+28.1%+23.4%
    ytd+9.8%+7.6%

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    URI Fundamental Analysis

    United Rentals' revenue trajectory shows steady growth, with Q4 2025 revenue of $4.21 billion representing a 2.76% year-over-year increase. The multi-quarter trend indicates stable top-line expansion, with revenue growing from $3.72 billion in Q1 2025 to the Q4 level. The core 'Rental Equipment' segment, representing $3.86 billion in the provided data (though period context is unclear), is the primary driver, supported by strong ancillary and other rental revenue of $658 million. This growth is underpinned by robust demand in non-residential construction, particularly data centers. The company is highly profitable, with Q4 2025 net income of $653 million and a net margin of 15.5%. Gross margin for the quarter was a healthy 35.24%, while the operating margin stood at 25%. Margins have shown stability, with the gross margin fluctuating in a tight range between approximately 33.4% and 36.8% over the last eight quarters, demonstrating pricing power and operational efficiency in a capital-intensive business. The balance sheet and cash flow picture is mixed but generally healthy. The company generated robust operating cash flow of $1.26 billion in Q4 2025 and free cash flow of $577 million. The trailing twelve-month free cash flow is $662 million, providing internal funding for growth and shareholder returns. However, financial leverage is notable, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.84. The current ratio is slightly below 1 at 0.94, indicating a degree of liquidity tightness typical for asset-heavy rental firms that finance their fleets. Return on equity is strong at 27.81%, showcasing efficient use of shareholder capital.

    Quarterly Revenue

    $4.2B

    2025-12

    Revenue YoY Growth

    +0.02%

    YoY Comparison

    Gross Margin

    +0.35%

    Latest Quarter

    Free Cash Flow

    $662000000.0B

    Last 12 Months

    Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)

    Revenue Breakdown

    Rental Equipment
    Ancillary and Other Rental Revenue
    Contractor Supplies
    New Equipment
    Service and Other Revenues
    Owned Equipment Rentals
    Re-rent Revenue

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    Valuation Analysis: Is URI Overvalued?

    Given the company's substantial positive net income, the primary valuation metric is the Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio. The trailing PE ratio is 20.9x, while the forward PE is notably lower at 17.86x. This gap implies the market expects earnings growth, with forward estimates (implied EPS of ~$53.80 based on current price and forward PE) significantly higher than the trailing twelve-month EPS. Compared to industry averages, specific sector multiples are not provided in the data, but a trailing PE of ~21x for a market leader with a 34%+ 1-year return and strong margins suggests the market is pricing in a quality premium. The stock's valuation on a Price-to-Sales basis is 3.24x, and its EV/EBITDA is 9.51x, which are more standard industrial metrics. Historically, the stock's own trailing PE has ranged significantly, as shown in the historical ratios data from a low around 9.65x in late 2022 to highs above 29x in early 2021. The current trailing PE of 20.9x sits above the median of its own multi-year range, indicating the stock is not cheap on a historical basis. This elevated level suggests the market has already priced in optimistic expectations for continued growth in data center and industrial construction, leaving less room for multiple expansion and increasing sensitivity to any guidance disappointments.

    PE

    20.9x

    Latest Quarter

    vs. Historical

    Mid-Range

    5-Year PE Range 8x~29x

    vs. Industry Avg

    N/A

    Industry PE ~N/A*

    EV/EBITDA

    9.5x

    Enterprise Value Multiple