Wynn Resorts
WYNN
$96.21
-1.07%
Wynn Resorts Ltd operates as a premier developer and operator of luxury integrated casino resorts, with flagship properties in Las Vegas and Macau, and a growing presence in markets like Massachusetts and the planned UAE development. The company is a dominant player in the high-end gaming and hospitality sector, distinguished by its brand equity, superior property quality, and focus on the premium customer segment. The current investor narrative is centered on the ongoing recovery and stabilization of its key Macau operations post-pandemic, the performance of its U.S. assets in a potentially slowing economic environment, and the long-term growth prospects from its upcoming managed resort in the United Arab Emirates, which is modeled to open in 2027.…
WYNN
Wynn Resorts
$96.21
WYNN 12-Month Price Forecast
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Wynn Resorts's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $125.07 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.
Average Target
$125.07
10 analysts
Implied Upside
+30.0%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
10
covering this stock
Price Range
$77 - $125
Analyst target range
The stock is covered by 10 analysts, and the institutional ratings show a unanimously bullish sentiment, with all recent actions from major firms like Morgan Stanley, UBS, and Wells Fargo being Buy, Overweight, or Outperform equivalents. The consensus average target price is not explicitly provided in the data, but the strong buy-side bias implies an upside expectation from the current price of $105.98. The target price range is also not specified, but the high degree of analyst conviction and lack of downgrades in the recent institutional ratings data suggests a relatively tight spread of expectations and confidence in the company's operational recovery and long-term growth story, particularly around the Macau rebound and UAE project, with the low end of any target range likely factoring in macroeconomic risks to consumer discretionary spending.
Bulls vs Bears: WYNN Investment Factors
The bull and bear cases for WYNN are sharply divided between future expectations and present realities. The bullish thesis, strongly endorsed by analysts, is predicated on a significant earnings recovery (forward P/E 18.4x) driven by Macau stabilization and future UAE growth, supported by robust cash flow. The bearish thesis is grounded in severe current margin compression, stalled revenue growth, a technically broken chart, and a valuation that appears rich on trailing metrics. Currently, the bearish evidence from recent operational performance and price action is stronger, creating a high degree of skepticism that the optimistic forward estimates will be achieved. The single most important tension in the investment debate is whether the company can successfully reverse the sharp margin decline and re-accelerate earnings growth to justify its forward multiple, or if the current weakness signifies a more fundamental deterioration in its premium business model.
Bullish
- Strong Analyst Conviction: All 10 covering analysts maintain a bullish rating (Buy/Overweight/Outperform), indicating unanimous institutional confidence in the company's recovery and long-term growth story. This strong consensus suggests significant expected upside from the current price of $105.98.
- Robust Free Cash Flow Generation: The company generated $692.2 million in trailing twelve-month free cash flow, providing ample internal funding for operations, debt service, and future growth projects like the UAE resort. This strong cash flow underpins financial stability despite accounting-based negative equity.
- Attractive Forward Valuation: The forward P/E of 18.4x is less than half the trailing P/E of 38.1x, reflecting analyst expectations for a sharp earnings recovery to an average of $6.87 per share. This forward multiple is more reasonable for a cyclical recovery story.
- Macau Recovery & UAE Growth: The core investment narrative hinges on the stabilization of the high-margin Macau segment and the long-term growth from the managed UAE resort opening in 2027. These catalysts provide a clear path for revenue and earnings expansion beyond the current plateau.
Bearish
- Severe Profitability Compression: Gross margin collapsed to 31.96% in Q4 2025 from 43.68% a year ago, and net margin fell to 5.36% from 15.06%. This dramatic margin pressure, on minimal revenue growth of 1.48% YoY, signals significant operational headwinds and cost inflation.
- Technical Downtrend & Weak Momentum: The stock is down 10.93% over six months and 13.54% YTD, underperforming the SPY by -16.59% and -19.22% over those periods, respectively. Trading at 79% of its 52-week range with a high short ratio of 5.42 confirms strong negative price momentum and bearish sentiment.
- Elevated Trailing Valuation: A trailing P/E of 38.1x is historically high for WYNN, up from 8.41x a year ago and 30.96x last quarter, and trades at a premium to the sector. This lofty multiple leaves the stock vulnerable to compression if the anticipated earnings rebound is delayed or falls short.
- Growth Plateau Post-Recovery: Q4 2025 revenue growth of just 1.48% YoY indicates the post-pandemic recovery surge has stalled. With the Casino segment dominating revenue, the company appears to have reached a cyclical plateau, raising questions about near-term organic growth drivers.
WYNN Technical Analysis
The stock is in a pronounced downtrend, having declined 10.93% over the past six months and 13.54% year-to-date, despite a positive 32.41% gain over the past year. Currently trading at $105.98, the price sits at approximately 79% of its 52-week range (52-week high: $134.72, 52-week low: $80.86), indicating it has retreated significantly from recent highs and is positioned in the lower-middle portion of its annual band, suggesting a loss of momentum and potential consolidation after a strong prior-year run. Recent momentum is weak and diverging from the longer-term positive trend, with the stock down 1.37% over the past three months and up a modest 3.29% over the past month, underperforming the SPY's 4.14% and 9.98% gains over the same periods, respectively, as evidenced by negative relative strength figures of -5.51 and -6.69. This underperformance signals decelerating momentum and investor rotation away from the name amidst broader market strength. Key technical support is anchored at the 52-week low of $80.86, while immediate resistance is at the recent high of $134.72; a sustained break below the $100 psychological level could accelerate a test of lower support, whereas a move above the $110-$115 zone is needed to signal a reversal. With a beta of 1.034, the stock exhibits market-like volatility, but its recent price action and a high short ratio of 5.42 indicate elevated bearish sentiment and potential for sharp moves on any positive catalysts.
Beta
1.01
1.01x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-27.9%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$83-$135
Price range past year
Annual Return
-0.6%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | WYNN Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | -6.6% | +8.2% |
| 3m | -10.8% | +9.0% |
| 6m | -20.3% | +10.5% |
| 1y | -0.6% | +26.5% |
| ytd | -21.5% | +8.9% |
Bobby - Your AI Investment Partner
Get real-time data, AI-driven personalized investment analysis to make smarter investment decisions
WYNN Fundamental Analysis
Revenue growth has decelerated significantly, with Q4 2025 revenue of $1.866 billion representing a mere 1.48% year-over-year increase, a stark slowdown from the stronger growth seen in prior 2024 quarters; segment data shows the Casino segment, at $1.143 billion, remains the dominant revenue driver, but the modest overall growth suggests a plateau in the post-pandemic recovery phase. The company is profitable, reporting Q4 2025 net income of $100.0 million and a net margin of 5.36%, but profitability has compressed from the year-ago quarter's net margin of 15.06%, with gross margin also declining to 31.96% from 43.68% in Q4 2024, indicating margin pressure from potentially higher costs or a less favorable revenue mix. Financially, the company maintains a strong liquidity position with a current ratio of 1.63 and generated substantial trailing twelve-month free cash flow of $692.2 million, providing internal funding capacity; however, the negative return on equity of -118.82% and a highly negative debt-to-equity ratio of -44.62 are accounting artifacts stemming from negative shareholder equity, which masks the underlying cash-generating ability of its asset-heavy business model.
Quarterly Revenue
$1.9B
2025-12
Revenue YoY Growth
+0.01%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
+0.31%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$692220000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
Open an Account, get $2 TSLA now!
Valuation Analysis: Is WYNN Overvalued?
Given the positive net income, the primary valuation metric is the P/E ratio. The trailing P/E is elevated at 38.1x, while the forward P/E is significantly lower at 18.4x, indicating the market is pricing in a substantial earnings recovery, with analysts forecasting EPS to surge to an average of $6.87 for the coming period from the recent quarterly EPS of $0.97. Compared to sector averages, WYNN's trailing P/E of 38.1x trades at a premium, though direct industry comps are not provided; its Price/Sales ratio of 1.75x and EV/EBITDA of 13.2x offer alternative cross-checks against gaming peers. Historically, the stock's current trailing P/E of 38.1x is above its own recent historical range, as it traded at a P/E of 30.96x at the end of Q4 2025 and 8.41x at the end of Q4 2024, suggesting the market is currently pricing in optimistic future earnings growth rather than reflecting the recent period's depressed profitability.
PE
38.1x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Mid-Range
5-Year PE Range -82x~256x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
13.2x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial & Operational Risks center on profitability and leverage. The severe compression in gross margin (down ~1,172 bps YoY) and net margin (down ~957 bps) indicates acute cost pressure or a unfavorable revenue mix shift, which if persistent, would derail the earnings recovery priced into the forward P/E. While free cash flow is strong, the company's balance sheet carries the accounting distortion of negative shareholder equity (-$118.82% ROE), though this stems from its asset-heavy model rather than insolvency. The primary financial risk is that margin recovery is slower than expected, causing earnings to miss the $6.87 consensus estimate and triggering multiple compression.
Market & Competitive Risks are heightened by the stock's technical weakness and premium valuation. Trading at a trailing P/E of 38.1x, a significant premium to its own history just a year ago (8.41x), WYNN is highly exposed to valuation compression if growth stock multiples contract or if the sector falls out of favor. Its beta of 1.034 implies market-like volatility, but recent severe underperformance (-19.22% YTD vs. SPY) shows it is facing company-specific headwinds. As a luxury discretionary operator, it is also sensitive to macroeconomic slowdowns that could impact high-end consumer spending in both Macau and Las Vegas.
Worst-Case Scenario involves a stagflationary environment where consumer spending on luxury travel and gaming weakens while costs remain elevated, leading to consecutive quarters of margin misses and downward EPS revisions. This could trigger a loss of analyst confidence, multiple derating towards the sector average, and a test of fundamental support levels. The realistic downside could see the stock re-test its 52-week low of $80.86, representing a potential loss of approximately -24% from the current price of $105.98. A break below that level could lead to further declines towards the mid-$70s, aligning with a historical max drawdown of -27.56%.