ExxonMobil
XOM
$138.88
+1.03%
ExxonMobil is an integrated oil and gas company that explores for, produces, and refines oil worldwide, operating across upstream, downstream, and chemical segments. As one of the world's largest publicly traded energy companies, it holds a dominant position in global refining and petrochemicals, with a diversified portfolio spanning conventional and low-carbon energy. The current investor narrative centers on the stock's resilience amid volatile oil prices, its 43-year dividend growth streak, and the potential for long-term LNG demand growth, while near-term headwinds from geopolitical de-escalation and falling crude prices have pressured shares.…
XOM
ExxonMobil
$138.88
Related headlines
Investment Opinion: Should I buy XOM Today?
Rating: Buy. ExxonMobil offers a compelling risk/reward at current levels, with a forward P/E of 13.0x, a 3.3% dividend yield, and a strong balance sheet. The analyst consensus is Overweight/Buy, with an implied average target of $169, representing 22% upside from the current price of $138.88.
Supporting evidence: The forward P/E of 13.0x is below the industry average of 12-14x and the stock's five-year median, suggesting undervaluation. Revenue of $80.0 billion in Q4 2025 is stable, and free cash flow of $23.6 billion covers the dividend with a 59.7% payout ratio. The EV/EBITDA of 8.2x is below the sector range of 9-11x, and the ROE of 11.1% is respectable. The stock's low beta of 0.162 provides downside protection in a market sell-off.
Risks & conditions: The biggest risks are a sustained decline in oil prices, further margin compression, and sector rotation out of energy. This Buy rating would be downgraded to Hold if oil prices fall below $60 per barrel or if the forward P/E expands above 15x. It would be upgraded to Strong Buy if the stock pulls back to $130 or below, offering a larger margin of safety. Overall, ExxonMobil is fairly valued on forward earnings but undervalued on an EV/EBITDA basis relative to peers.
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XOM 12-Month Price Forecast
ExxonMobil's forward valuation is attractive, and its strong cash generation supports a sustainable dividend. The base case of oil price stability is the most likely scenario, with a 50% probability, leading to a target of $169. The bull case has a 25% probability and could yield up to $194, while the bear case of $105.53 is less likely but possible in a recession. The stock's low beta makes it a defensive holding, and the 3.3% dividend yield provides income. I would upgrade to more bullish if oil prices show signs of sustained recovery above $75, and downgrade to neutral if the forward P/E exceeds 15x or if free cash flow declines significantly.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on ExxonMobil's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $180.54 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.
Average Target
$180.54
5 analysts
Implied Upside
+30.0%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
5
covering this stock
Price Range
$111 - $181
Analyst target range
ExxonMobil is covered by 5 analysts, with a consensus leaning bullish. The average estimated EPS for the next fiscal year is $13.02, with a low of $10.82 and a high of $14.93. Revenue estimates average $358.4 billion, ranging from $311.8 billion to $399.0 billion. While explicit price targets are not provided, the consensus recommendation from recent ratings is predominantly Overweight/Buy, with 5 Overweight, 3 Neutral, and 1 Buy from firms like Morgan Stanley, Barclays, and TD Cowen. No Sell ratings are present, indicating broad analyst confidence. The average target price is not directly given, but based on the forward P/E of 13.0x and estimated EPS of $13.02, the implied target is approximately $169, representing about 22% upside from the current price of $138.88. The target range spans from a low of roughly $140 (based on low EPS of $10.82 at 13x) to a high of $194 (high EPS of $14.93 at 13x). The wide spread reflects uncertainty around oil prices and refining margins. The high target assumes a recovery in oil prices and strong downstream performance, while the low target prices in a prolonged downturn. Recent ratings have been stable, with no downgrades in the past six months, suggesting analysts see the current pullback as a buying opportunity. The tight consensus around Overweight indicates relatively high conviction among the covering analysts.
Bulls vs Bears: XOM Investment Factors
ExxonMobil presents a mixed picture: its strong free cash flow, low debt, and 43-year dividend growth streak provide a defensive foundation, while recent revenue stagnation, margin compression, and bearish price momentum raise concerns. The bull case rests on the attractive forward P/E of 13.0x and potential for LNG demand growth, while the bear case centers on the high trailing P/E and vulnerability to falling oil prices. Currently, the bearish near-term momentum and sector rotation out of energy are stronger forces, but the stock's valuation on forward earnings and robust cash generation offer a compelling entry for long-term investors. The single most important tension is whether oil prices stabilize or decline further, as that will determine if the forward P/E of 13.0x is justified or if earnings estimates need to be revised downward.
Bullish
- Strong Free Cash Flow Generation: ExxonMobil generated $23.6 billion in trailing twelve-month free cash flow, which comfortably covers its dividend (payout ratio of 59.7%) and capital expenditures. This cash generation provides a buffer against oil price volatility and supports shareholder returns.
- Attractive Forward Valuation: The forward P/E of 13.0x is in line with the industry average and below the stock's five-year historical median, implying limited downside if earnings materialize as expected. The EV/EBITDA of 8.2x is below the sector's typical range of 9-11x, suggesting potential undervaluation on an enterprise basis.
- 43-Year Dividend Growth Streak: ExxonMobil has hiked its dividend for 43 consecutive years, demonstrating a commitment to returning capital to shareholders. The current dividend yield of 3.3% is attractive for income-focused investors, and the low payout ratio of 59.7% indicates sustainability.
- Robust Balance Sheet: With a debt-to-equity ratio of just 0.17 and a current ratio of 1.15, ExxonMobil has a strong balance sheet and ample liquidity. The company held $10.7 billion in cash at year-end 2025, providing financial flexibility to invest in growth and weather downturns.
Bearish
- Revenue Stagnation and Margin Compression: Q4 2025 revenue of $80.0 billion was down 1.3% year-over-year, and net margin declined to 8.1% from 9.4% in the prior year. Gross margin fell to 18.9% from 21.3%, reflecting weaker downstream margins and lower oil prices.
- Recent Price Momentum Is Bearish: The stock is down 7.8% over the past month and 8.9% over the past three months, underperforming the S&P 500 by 11.9% and 20.0%, respectively. This relative weakness suggests sector rotation out of energy and potential further downside.
- High Trailing P/E Relative to History: The trailing P/E of 18.1x is near the upper end of its five-year range (4.6x to 21.8x), indicating the market is pricing in optimistic earnings expectations. If earnings fail to rebound, the stock could de-rate.
- Geopolitical De-escalation Risk: Recent U.S.-Iran peace talks and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz have caused oil prices to sink 5% in a single day, pressuring energy stocks. Further de-escalation could lead to lower crude prices and reduced earnings for ExxonMobil.
XOM Technical Analysis
ExxonMobil is in a corrective phase within a longer-term uptrend. Over the past year, the stock has gained 20.8%, but it has pulled back sharply from its 52-week high of $176.41, currently trading at $138.88—approximately 79% of the 52-week range (from $105.53 low). This positioning near the lower end of the range suggests the stock is oversold relative to its yearly highs, potentially offering a value entry if the downtrend reverses. The 1-year price change of +20.8% still reflects a strong annual gain, but the recent decline warrants caution. Short-term momentum is decisively bearish, with the stock down 7.8% over the past month and 8.9% over the past three months. This contrasts sharply with the positive 1-year trend, indicating a significant loss of near-term momentum. The 1-month decline of 7.8% versus the S&P 500's gain of 4.1% over the same period highlights severe relative weakness, suggesting a potential trend reversal or a temporary pullback driven by sector rotation out of energy. The stock's beta of 0.162 is extremely low, implying it is far less volatile than the market—a rare characteristic for an energy major, likely due to its massive market cap and integrated business model. Key support lies at the 52-week low of $105.53, while resistance is at the 52-week high of $176.41. A breakdown below $105.53 would signal a major trend reversal, while a move above $176.41 would confirm renewed bullish momentum. Given the low beta, the stock's moves are less influenced by broad market swings, making it a defensive holding within the energy sector.
Beta
0.16
0.16x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-20.6%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$106-$176
Price range past year
Annual Return
+20.8%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | XOM Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | -7.8% | +1.8% |
| 3m | -8.9% | +10.0% |
| 6m | +11.5% | +8.8% |
| 1y | +20.8% | +21.1% |
| ytd | +13.2% | +10.7% |
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XOM Fundamental Analysis
ExxonMobil's revenue trajectory shows modest contraction, with Q4 2025 revenue of $80.0 billion down 1.3% year-over-year from $81.1 billion in Q4 2024. Over the trailing four quarters, revenue has ranged from $79.5 billion to $83.3 billion, indicating stagnation rather than growth. The Energy Products segment dominates at $131.9 billion in annual revenue, while Upstream contributed $28.2 billion, and Chemical/Specialty Products added $20.1 billion combined. The slight revenue decline reflects lower oil prices and refining margins, partially offset by higher volumes. The investment case hinges on the company's ability to maintain cash generation through the cycle, as top-line growth remains elusive. Profitability remains solid but has compressed. In Q4 2025, net income was $6.5 billion, down from $7.6 billion in the year-ago quarter, with net margin declining to 8.1% from 9.4%. Gross margin fell to 18.9% from 21.3%, reflecting weaker downstream margins. However, operating margin of 7.5% and EBITDA margin of 19.7% still indicate healthy profitability relative to the industry. The company has maintained positive net income for over a decade, and the current ROE of 11.1% is respectable for an integrated oil major. The balance sheet is strong, with a debt-to-equity ratio of just 0.17 and a current ratio of 1.15, indicating ample liquidity. Free cash flow (FCF) for Q4 2025 was $5.2 billion, bringing trailing twelve-month FCF to $23.6 billion, which comfortably covers the dividend (payout ratio of 59.7%) and capital expenditures. The company generated $12.7 billion in operating cash flow in Q4, demonstrating robust cash generation even in a lower-price environment. With $10.7 billion in cash at year-end, ExxonMobil has significant financial flexibility to fund investments and shareholder returns.
Quarterly Revenue
$80.0B
2025-12
Revenue YoY Growth
-1.26%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
18.89%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$23.6B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is XOM Overvalued?
Since net income is positive ($6.5 billion in Q4 2025), the primary valuation metric is the P/E ratio. The trailing P/E stands at 18.1x, while the forward P/E is 13.0x, based on estimated EPS of $13.02. The wide gap between trailing and forward P/E implies the market expects a significant earnings rebound in the coming year, likely driven by higher oil prices or cost improvements. Compared to the industry average (Oil & Gas Integrated), ExxonMobil's trailing P/E of 18.1x is at a premium to the sector median of roughly 12-14x, reflecting its scale and integrated model. However, the forward P/E of 13.0x is more in line with peers, suggesting the premium is justified by superior earnings power and dividend stability. The stock's P/B ratio of 2.0x is near the industry average, while EV/EBITDA of 8.2x is below the sector's typical range of 9-11x, indicating potential undervaluation on an enterprise basis. Historically, ExxonMobil's trailing P/E has ranged from 4.6x (Q3 2022) to 21.8x (Q1 2021). The current 18.1x is near the upper end of its five-year band, suggesting the market is pricing in optimistic expectations for earnings recovery. However, the forward P/E of 13.0x is closer to the historical median, implying that if earnings materialize as expected, the stock is fairly valued. The PEG ratio of -1.2 (negative due to expected earnings decline) is not meaningful, but the low forward P/E relative to historical averages suggests limited downside if oil prices stabilize.
PE
18.1x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
High-End
5-Year PE Range 5x~22x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
8.2x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial & Operational Risks: ExxonMobil's revenue declined 1.3% year-over-year in Q4 2025, and net margin compressed from 9.4% to 8.1%, indicating pressure on profitability. The company's net income fell from $7.6 billion to $6.5 billion, and gross margin dropped from 21.3% to 18.9%, reflecting weaker downstream margins. While free cash flow of $23.6 billion is robust, it is sensitive to oil prices; a sustained decline in crude could reduce cash generation and threaten the dividend payout ratio of 59.7%. The debt-to-equity ratio of 0.17 is low, but the current ratio of 1.15 suggests limited liquidity buffer if cash flows deteriorate.
Market & Competitive Risks: The stock's beta of 0.162 is extremely low, making it less correlated with the market, but it is highly sensitive to oil price movements and geopolitical events. Recent U.S.-Iran peace talks caused oil to sink 5% in a single day, highlighting the risk of further de-escalation. The trailing P/E of 18.1x is near the upper end of its five-year range, implying valuation risk if earnings disappoint. Competitive pressures from renewable energy and electric vehicles could erode long-term demand for oil, though the impact is gradual. The stock's recent underperformance versus the S&P 500 (down 7.8% in one month vs. S&P up 4.1%) indicates sector rotation risk.
Worst-Case Scenario: A prolonged downturn in oil prices, triggered by a global recession or a surge in supply from OPEC+ and U.S. shale, could drive ExxonMobil's earnings sharply lower. If oil falls to $50 per barrel, earnings could drop to $10.82 per share (analyst low estimate), implying a stock price of around $105.53 (52-week low) based on a 13x forward P/E. From the current price of $138.88, this represents a potential loss of 24%. In a severe recession, the stock could fall to $105.53, a 24% decline, or even lower if the dividend is cut, though that is unlikely given the 43-year growth streak.
FAQ
The primary risk is a sustained decline in oil prices, which would reduce earnings and free cash flow; a drop to $50 per barrel could push the stock to $105.53 (52-week low), a 24% loss from current levels. Second, margin compression is evident, with gross margin falling from 21.3% to 18.9% year-over-year, reflecting weaker downstream performance. Third, geopolitical de-escalation, such as a U.S.-Iran deal, could increase oil supply and pressure prices. Finally, the stock's trailing P/E of 18.1x is near the high end of its historical range, posing valuation risk if earnings disappoint. The most severe risk is a recession that crushes oil demand and triggers a dividend cut, though the 59.7% payout ratio provides some buffer.
The 12-month forecast for ExxonMobil is moderately bullish, with a base case probability of 50% targeting $149-$169, based on oil price stability around $70 per barrel and a forward P/E of 13x. The bull case (25% probability) targets $169-$194, driven by oil recovering to $80+ and earnings reaching $14.93 per share. The bear case (25% probability) targets $105-$140, with oil falling to $50 and earnings dropping to $10.82 per share. The most likely scenario is the base case, supported by analyst consensus Overweight and an implied target of $169. Key assumptions include stable oil prices and no major recession.
ExxonMobil appears fairly valued on a forward P/E basis (13.0x) but slightly overvalued on a trailing P/E basis (18.1x) relative to its five-year range of 4.6x to 21.8x. The forward P/E is in line with the industry average of 12-14x, while the EV/EBITDA of 8.2x is below the sector range of 9-11x, suggesting undervaluation on an enterprise basis. The market is pricing in an earnings rebound, as the forward P/E is significantly lower than the trailing P/E. Compared to its own history, the stock is near the upper end of its trailing P/E range, but the forward P/E is closer to the median, indicating that if earnings materialize as expected, the stock is fairly valued.
ExxonMobil is a good buy for long-term, income-oriented investors seeking a defensive energy holding with a 3.3% dividend yield and 43 years of dividend growth. The stock offers 22% upside to the analyst average target of $169, based on a forward P/E of 13.0x, which is below its historical median. The biggest downside risk is a sustained decline in oil prices, which could pressure earnings and the stock price toward the 52-week low of $105.53. For investors with a 3-5 year horizon, the current valuation provides a margin of safety, but those with a shorter time frame should be cautious given the recent bearish momentum.
ExxonMobil is best suited for long-term investment, with a suggested minimum holding period of 3-5 years. The stock's low beta of 0.162 makes it less volatile than the market, providing downside protection, while the 3.3% dividend yield offers income. Short-term trading is less attractive due to recent bearish momentum (down 7.8% in one month) and sensitivity to oil price swings. The company's 43-year dividend growth streak and strong free cash flow support a long-term buy-and-hold strategy. For short-term traders, the stock's low volatility and lack of near-term catalysts may limit upside, making it a less compelling trade.