XOM

ExxonMobil

$151.57

+0.62%
May 13, 2026
Bobby Quantitative Model
Exxon Mobil Corporation is a global integrated oil and gas company engaged in the exploration, production, refining, and marketing of petroleum products, as well as the manufacturing of commodity and specialty chemicals. It is a dominant market leader in the energy sector, distinguished by its massive scale, vertically integrated operations, and one of the world's largest refining capacities. The current investor narrative is intensely focused on the stock's performance amidst a volatile geopolitical backdrop, with recent news highlighting a 'second energy crisis' in Europe, a prolonged blockade of Iranian oil, and sustained high crude prices due to Middle Eastern conflicts, all of which are driving significant free cash flow and shaping debates on the sustainability of its recent gains.

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XOM 12-Month Price Forecast

Historical Price
Current Price $151.57
Average Target $151.57
High Target $174.30549999999997
Low Target $128.8345

Wall Street consensus

Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on ExxonMobil's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $197.04 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.

Average Target

$197.04

5 analysts

Implied Upside

+30.0%

vs. current price

Analyst Count

5

covering this stock

Price Range

$121 - $197

Analyst target range

Buy
1 (20%)
Hold
2 (40%)
Sell
2 (40%)

Analyst coverage for this mega-cap is extensive, with 7 analysts providing estimates, and institutional ratings from major firms like Morgan Stanley, Barclays, and Wells Fargo maintaining 'Overweight' or 'Buy' stances, while others like HSBC and Citigroup have a 'Neutral' or 'Hold' view, indicating a generally bullish but cautious consensus. The average analyst revenue estimate is $300.1 billion, with a wide range from $267.8 billion to $332.5 billion, and the average EPS estimate is $12.45, ranging from $10.71 to $14.20; this wide dispersion in targets signals high uncertainty around commodity price forecasts and geopolitical impacts, with the high-end targets likely pricing in sustained elevated oil prices and the low-end reflecting concerns over potential supply gluts or demand destruction.

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XOM Technical Analysis

The stock is in a sustained, powerful uptrend, evidenced by a 1-year price change of +44.40% and a 6-month gain of +33.57%. As of the latest close of $152.75, the price sits at approximately 86.6% of its 52-week range ($101.19 to $176.41), indicating it is trading near recent highs, which reflects strong momentum but also raises concerns about potential overextension after the significant rally. Recent momentum shows signs of deceleration and volatility, with the stock down -4.99% over the past month, a stark contrast to the S&P 500's +9.98% gain, resulting in a severe -14.97% relative strength reading; this 1-month pullback suggests profit-taking or a reassessment of geopolitical risk premiums, though the 3-month gain of +8.03% still outpaces the market's +4.14%. Key technical support is anchored at the 52-week low of $101.19, while immediate resistance is at the 52-week high of $176.41; a decisive breakout above $176 would signal a resumption of the primary uptrend, while a breakdown below the recent April lows near $146 could indicate a deeper correction. The stock's beta of 0.29 indicates it has been significantly less volatile than the broader market over the measured period, which is atypical for an energy stock during a price spike and may reflect its mega-cap stability, though recent price action suggests elevated idiosyncratic risk.

Beta

0.18

0.18x market volatility

Max Drawdown

-15.7%

Largest decline past year

52-Week Range

$101-$176

Price range past year

Annual Return

+38.5%

Cumulative gain past year

PeriodXOM ReturnS&P 500
1m-0.7%+8.2%
3m+1.1%+9.0%
6m+27.1%+10.5%
1y+38.5%+26.5%
ytd+23.6%+8.9%

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XOM Fundamental Analysis

Revenue has shown volatility with a recent sequential decline; Q4 2025 revenue was $80.04 billion, representing a -1.26% year-over-year contraction from Q4 2024, and this follows a peak of $89.99 billion in Q2 2024, indicating a multi-quarter downtrend from those highs largely tied to commodity price movements. The company remains highly profitable, with Q4 2025 net income of $6.50 billion and a net margin of 8.12%, though profitability has compressed from prior quarters, as evidenced by the Q4 gross margin of 18.89%, down from 22.43% in Q3 2025 and 23.51% in Q1 2025, reflecting the impact of lower realized prices and potentially higher costs. The balance sheet is exceptionally strong, with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.17 and robust free cash flow generation, evidenced by TTM free cash flow of $23.61 billion; this substantial cash flow, coupled with a current ratio of 1.15, provides ample liquidity to fund its capital program, sustain its dividend (payout ratio of 59.74%), and continue aggressive share buybacks without financial strain.

Quarterly Revenue

$80.0B

2025-12

Revenue YoY Growth

-0.01%

YoY Comparison

Gross Margin

+0.18%

Latest Quarter

Free Cash Flow

$23.6B

Last 12 Months

Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)

Revenue Breakdown

Other Revenue
Chemical Products
Energy Products
Specialty Products
Upstream
Income From Equity Affiliates

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Valuation Analysis: Is XOM Overvalued?

Given its substantial net income, the primary valuation metric is the Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio. The trailing PE is 18.07x, while the forward PE is 15.02x; the lower forward multiple implies the market expects earnings growth, aligning with analyst EPS estimates averaging $12.45 for the coming period. Compared to sector averages, ExxonMobil's valuation presents a mixed picture: its trailing PE of 18.07x is below the typical integrated oil major average (often in the low 20s), while its Price-to-Sales ratio of 1.61x and EV/EBITDA of 8.16x also suggest a moderate valuation relative to historical energy sector norms, indicating the stock is not trading at a significant premium despite its strong performance. Historically, the current trailing PE of 18.07x sits above its own 5-year average observed in the provided data (which has ranged from single digits during the 2022 boom to the mid-teens more recently), suggesting the market is pricing in a more optimistic mid-cycle earnings environment rather than peak-cycle euphoria, but it is not at extreme historical highs.

PE

18.1x

Latest Quarter

vs. Historical

High-End

5-Year PE Range 5x~22x

vs. Industry Avg

N/A

Industry PE ~N/A*

EV/EBITDA

8.2x

Enterprise Value Multiple