ABBV

AbbVie

$285.99

-0.14%
Oct 28, 2026
Bobby Quantitative Model
AbbVie is a global biopharmaceutical company focused on immunology (Skyrizi, Rinvoq, Humira), oncology (Imbruvica, Venclexta), neuroscience (Botox Therapeutic, Vraylar, Ubrelvy, Qulipta), and medical aesthetics (Botox Cosmetic, Juvederm), with the 2020 Allergan acquisition and 2024 Cerevel/ImmunoGen deals broadening its portfolio beyond its historical Humira dependence. As one of the largest drug manufacturers globally, AbbVie is a scaled immunology leader transitioning from a single-molecule concentration risk to a diversified, multi-franchise platform with a growing neuroscience and aesthetics footprint. The current investor narrative centers on the durability of the Skyrizi/Rinvoq growth engine as it more than offsets Humira biosimilar erosion, the recent FDA approval of Parkinson's drug Juvmo (validating the Cerevel acquisition and adding a potential multi-billion-dollar peak-sales asset), and the company's ability to convert strong top-line growth into margin expansion despite elevated amortization and restructuring charges. Debate also hinges on balance-sheet leverage from serial M&A, the sustainability of a dividend that currently exceeds reported earnings, and whether the stock's strong 2026 re-rating has already discounted the pipeline catalysts.

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ABBV 12-Month Price Forecast

Historical Price
Current Price $285.99
Average Target $285.99
High Target $328.89
Low Target $243.09

Wall Street consensus

Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on AbbVie's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $283.19 and implied upside of -1.0% versus the current price.

Average Target

$283.19

0 analysts

Implied Upside

-1.0%

vs. current price

Analyst Count

—

covering this stock

Price Range

$200 - $325

Analyst target range

Coverage is deep and constructive: 28 analysts cover AbbVie with a consensus recommendation of "buy" (mean rating 1.7 on a 1–5 scale where 1 is Strong Buy), and the average target price of $284.79 sits essentially at the current $285.64 price — implying roughly flat to -0.3% upside, suggesting the stock has already caught up to consensus fair value. Consensus 2027 EPS estimates average $20.96 (range $20.34–$21.40) on average revenue of $85.28 billion (range $83.32–$86.63 billion), which underpins the forward PE of 17.6x and implies analysts expect continued steady growth rather than acceleration.

The target range of $200 to $328 is wide — a spread of 64% from low to high — signaling meaningful dispersion in views. The high target of $328 (~15% above current) likely assumes multiple expansion driven by Juvmo and pipeline catalysts, sustained Skyrizi/Rinvoq outperformance, and margin expansion as charges normalize; the low target of $200 (~30% below current) prices in Humira erosion accelerating, immunology competition, or leverage/M&A concerns. Institutional ratings show a clear upgrade bias in recent months — Wolfe Research upgraded to Outperform from Peer Perform (Aug 13), Erste Group to Buy from Hold (Aug 5), with HSBC, Piper Sandler, Wells Fargo, Evercore ISI, Berenberg, Guggenheim, and Canaccord all maintaining Buy/Overweight/Outperform — indicating sell-side sentiment is leaning bullish even as the average target suggests limited near-term upside after the strong 2026 run.

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ABBV Technical Analysis

AbbVie is in a sustained, powerful uptrend, with the stock up 25.14% over the past year and 24.57% year-to-date, materially outperforming the S&P 500's 13.13% and 11.45% respective gains. At a current price of $285.64, the stock sits at roughly 94.7% of its 52-week range (low $190.75, high $291.40), just below its highs — a positioning that signals strong momentum but also raises the risk of near-term overextension and profit-taking. The 6-month gain of 43.75% versus SPY's 6.45% underscores a decisive relative-strength breakout (relative strength of 37.30 over six months), confirming this is a leadership move rather than a beta-driven rally.

Short-term momentum is accelerating rather than fading: the stock is up 7.76% over the past month versus a 1.02% decline in SPY, a relative-strength spread of 8.78 points, and up 10.13% over three months against SPY's 2.85%. This 1-month acceleration on top of the 1-year uptrend is a bullish confirmation pattern — momentum is compounding rather than diverging — and the recent push from ~$260 in late September to $285.64 in late October reflects a fresh leg higher, likely tied to the Juvmo approval catalyst and positive sentiment around the immunology franchise. Volume of roughly 4.63 million shares and a short ratio of 3.93 suggest no meaningful short-squeeze dynamic; the move appears fundamentally driven.

Key resistance sits at the 52-week high of $291.40, roughly 2% above the current price; a clean breakout above that level would signal a continuation of the primary uptrend and likely invite momentum and trend-following capital. Support is anchored at the 52-week low of $190.75, with intermediate support likely in the $260–$265 zone where the stock consolidated in September. The beta of 0.228 is unusually low for an equity — implying roughly 77% less volatility than the market — which is characteristic of defensive healthcare cash flows but also means the stock's recent outperformance is idiosyncratic rather than market-driven; the max drawdown of -19.23% over the period reinforces that downside risk, while real, has been contained relative to the upside captured.

Beta

0.23

0.23x market volatility

Max Drawdown

-19.2%

Largest decline past year

52-Week Range

$191-$291

Price range past year

Annual Return

+25.7%

Cumulative gain past year

PeriodABBV ReturnS&P 500
1m+7.4%+0.9%
3m+11.1%+4.1%
6m+38.4%+7.2%
1y+25.7%+12.4%
ytd+24.7%+13.3%

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ABBV Fundamental Analysis

AbbVie's revenue trajectory is clearly re-accelerating: Q2 2026 revenue of $16.99 billion grew 10.16% year-over-year versus $15.42 billion in Q2 2025, and rose sequentially from $15.00 billion in Q1 2026 and $16.62 billion in Q4 2025. The growth engine is unmistakably immunology — Skyrizi at $5.51 billion and Rinvoq at $2.53 billion in the quarter dwarf Humira's declining $756 million — while neuroscience (Botox Therapeutic $1.04 billion, Vraylar $1.07 billion) and aesthetics add diversification. The sequential and YoY acceleration, combined with the Juvmo approval adding a new growth vector, supports a durable mid-to-high single-digit to low-double-digit top-line growth case that underpins the bull thesis.

Profitability is robust at the operating line but noisy at the net line: Q2 2026 gross margin was 74.74% (up from 71.88% in Q1 and 71.82% in Q2 2025), operating margin was 37.86%, and net income reached $3.61 billion (21.27% net margin) versus just $699 million in Q1 2026 and $938 million in Q2 2025. The quarterly volatility stems largely from non-operating items — Q1 2026 carried a $3.70 billion other-expense drag and Q2 2025 a $3.34 billion charge — rather than core operations, which are expanding. The trailing net margin of 6.91% and EPS of $0.0104 are distorted by these charges and heavy amortization, which is why the forward PE of 17.6x on estimated EPS of ~$20.96 is a far better reflection of underlying earnings power than the 96.4x trailing multiple.

Cash generation is the company's strongest fundamental pillar: trailing twelve-month free cash flow is $19.68 billion, with quarterly FCF of $3.70 billion in Q2 2026 and $3.56 billion in Q1 2026, comfortably funding the $3.07 billion quarterly dividend. However, the balance sheet carries meaningful leverage — debt-to-equity is reported as -21.12 (reflecting negative book equity from accumulated buybacks and M&A), the current ratio is a thin 0.67, and the payout ratio of 275.8% on reported earnings signals the dividend is covered by cash flow rather than GAAP net income. ROA of 10.51% is healthy, but the negative ROE (-129.2%) is an artifact of negative equity; investors should monitor deleveraging progress and the interest coverage ratio (8.62x in Q2) as the key risk gauges.

Quarterly Revenue

$17.0B

2026-06

Revenue YoY Growth

+10.2%

YoY Comparison

Gross Margin

74.7%

Latest Quarter

Free Cash Flow

$19.7B

Last 12 Months

Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)

Revenue Breakdown

Botox Cosmetic
Juvederm Collection
Other Aesthetics
H U M I R A
RINVOQ
SKYRIZI
Botox Therapeutic
Other Neuroscience
Qulipta
Ubrelvy
Vraylar
Imbruvica
VENCLEXTA
Linzess/Constella
MAVYRET
Other Products

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Valuation Analysis: Is ABBV Overvalued?

Because AbbVie's trailing net income is positive but heavily distorted by amortization and one-time charges (trailing PE of 96.4x on EPS of $0.0104 is not economically meaningful), the forward PE is the appropriate primary metric: at 17.63x forward earnings on consensus EPS of ~$20.96, the stock trades at a reasonable multiple for a large-cap pharma with low-double-digit growth. The enormous gap between the 96.4x trailing and 17.6x forward PE implies the market expects a dramatic earnings normalization as charges roll off and Skyrizi/Rinvoq scale — a gap that also flags the risk of disappointment if that normalization is delayed.

On sales-based metrics, the stock is less cheap: PS ratio of 6.63x and EV/Sales of 8.84x sit at the higher end for large-cap pharma, while EV/EBITDA of 26.6x is elevated versus the sector's typical mid-teens multiples. The premium is partially justified by AbbVie's superior growth (10.2% YoY revenue growth) and 70.2% gross margin, but the 26.6x EV/EBITDA versus a sector norm closer to 12–15x represents a substantial premium that leaves limited room for execution missteps. The 2.88% dividend yield provides some valuation support for income-oriented holders.

Historically, AbbVie's own valuation band has been wide: quarterly PE ratios in the historical data range from roughly 15x (Q3 2022) to over 500x (Q3 2025, distorted by depressed earnings), with PS ratios ranging from ~13x (Q3 2021) to ~27.8x (Q1 2025). The current PS of 6.63x appears low relative to that history only because the metric definition differs from the historical series; on a like-for-like basis, the stock is trading toward the upper-middle of its historical band, consistent with the market pricing in optimistic pipeline and growth expectations rather than deep value.

PE

96.4x

Latest Quarter

vs. Historical

Mid-Range

5-Year PE Range 15x~139x

vs. Industry Avg

N/A

Industry PE ~N/A*

EV/EBITDA

26.6x

Enterprise Value Multiple