ACI
ACIAlbertsons Companies is a leading grocery retailer operating stores across the United States.
The company is defined by its extensive store network, well-known banners like Safeway and Vons, and its role as a critical supplier of everyday essentials.
Updated: January 14, 2026, 16:00 EST
Investment Opinion: Should I buy ACI Today?
Technical Analysis
ACI exhibits remarkable price stability with minimal recent declines, though it has underperformed the broader market. Trading near the lower end of its 52-week range, the stock may be in an oversold recovery phase after a significant drawdown. Its low beta suggests reduced volatility, which could appeal to risk-averse investors.
Fundamentals
ACI's Q3 2025 results showed modest revenue growth and improved gross margins, but net income declined sharply amid cost pressures. The balance sheet remains solid, but profitability metrics like operating margin have weakened. This mixed performance indicates operational challenges despite top-line resilience.
Valuation
ACI presents a contradictory valuation: it appears cheap on earnings and sales multiples but expensive on EV/EBITDA and price-to-book ratios. The extremely low PEG ratio highlights strong projected earnings growth relative to its price, suggesting potential undervaluation if growth targets are met.
Peer Comparison & Risk
A conclusive peer comparison is hindered by missing industry data, though ACI’s metrics suggest atypical capital or depreciation policies. Risks include stock-specific volatility despite low beta, and the absence of short interest reduces squeeze potential but also removes a downside cushion.
Recommendation
Consider for cautious accumulation. ACI’s stability and apparent undervaluation on growth metrics are appealing, but investors must weigh its profitability pressures and high EV/EBITDA. It may suit portfolios seeking low-volatility exposure with a tolerance for mixed fundamentals. Not investment advice.
ACI 12-Month Price Forecast
RockFlow Model Forecast: Three Scenarios for 2026
Based on the provided analysis, here is a 12-month outlook for ACI:
Catalysts: The primary positive catalyst is the potential for the stock to be re-rated if it delivers on its projected earnings growth, as suggested by its low PEG ratio and apparent undervaluation on certain metrics. A successful reversal of the recent sharp decline in net income by managing cost pressures would be a significant driver for price appreciation.
Risks: The key risks are the ongoing operational challenges, evidenced by weakening profitability margins despite revenue growth, and the contradictory valuation which flags potential overvaluation on an EV/EBITDA basis. The stock's history of a significant drawdown and its current position near 52-week lows also pose a risk of continued underperformance.
Outlook: Given the mixed signals, a target price range is difficult to establish firmly without an analyst consensus. The stock is likely to remain range-bound with a cautious bias until there is clearer evidence of improved profitability. A realistic 12-month price range could be between $15 and $22, heavily dependent on the company's ability to translate top-line stability into bottom-line results.
Wall Street Consensus
Most Wall Street analysts are optimistic about ACI's 12-month outlook, with consensus target around $17.71, indicating expected upside potential.
Bulls vs Bears: ACI Investment Factors
Overall, ACI has investment potential but also faces challenges. Here are key factors to weigh before investing.
Bullish
- Deep Valuation Discount: Stock trades at significant discount to intrinsic value according to Value Investing Thesis
- AI Shopping Assistant Impact: AI tool increased average basket size by 10%, boosting revenue potential
- Innovation Launchpad Program: $400K+ prize pool attracts emerging brands and drives product innovation
- Stable Dividend Payment: Continued dividend payments signal financial stability and shareholder returns
- Analyst Confidence Renewal: Social media chatter highlights renewed analyst optimism about future prospects
Bearish
- Margin Compression Concerns: Net profit margins slipped amid competitive pressures and cost inflation
- Tepid Sales Guidance: Company forecast weak annual sales growth due to SNAP benefit reductions
- Q3 Revenue Miss: Third-quarter results missed estimates, triggering 7.6% stock price drop
- Slower Growth Pace: 1.8% revenue growth lags behind broader market's projected 10% pace
- Drug Price Pressure: Lower drug prices and regulatory changes weigh on pharmacy segment performance
ACI Technical Analysis
ACI has demonstrated relative stability but underperformance compared to market benchmarks over recent periods. The stock has shown minimal negative returns with significantly lower volatility than the broader market.
The stock has posted marginal declines of approximately -0.5% over both one and three-month periods, reflecting remarkable stability. However, this performance trails the market by nearly 4 percentage points, indicating relative underperformance despite the low volatility profile indicated by its beta of 0.31.
Currently trading near the lower end of its 52-week range, ACI sits approximately 9% above its yearly low but roughly 26% below its yearly high. The significant maximum drawdown of -29.77% suggests the stock remains in a recovery phase from previous declines, potentially indicating an oversold condition given its current positioning.
| Period | ACI Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +2.0% | +1.3% |
| 3m | +3.5% | +5.7% |
| 6m | -20.7% | +10.6% |
| 1y | -13.3% | +16.5% |
| ytd | +2.3% | +1.1% |
ACI Fundamental Analysis
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ACI's FY2025 Q3 results show mixed performance with revenue growth but margin pressure. Revenue improved slightly to $19.1B (up 1.1% QoQ) while gross margin expanded to 27.4% from 27.0% in Q2, though operating margin declined significantly to 2.5% amid rising costs.
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Level: ACI appears fundamentally undervalued based on its trailing and forward P/E ratios, which are at low double and single digits, respectively, and a very low price-to-sales ratio of 0.11. However, the price-to-book ratio of 3.54 suggests the market is assigning a significant premium to its book value, and the EV/EBITDA multiple is exceptionally high, indicating potential weakness in cash flow generation relative to its enterprise value. Notably, the extremely low PEG ratio below 0.1 signals strong expected earnings growth relative to its current valuation, a highly compelling metric.
Peer Comparison: Without specific industry average data, a definitive peer comparison cannot be performed. However, ACI's low earnings multiples contrast sharply with its high EV/EBITDA, suggesting its capital structure or depreciation policies may differ significantly from typical industry peers. A conclusive assessment of its relative valuation would require benchmarking these metrics against the specific industry's averages.
Investment Risk Disclosure
Volatility Risk: With a remarkably low beta of 0.308, Albertsons (ACI) exhibits significantly lower volatility than the broader market. However, the stock's 1-year maximum drawdown of -29.77% demonstrates it is not immune to substantial price declines, indicating potential asymmetry where downside volatility can occur despite the low beta reading. This suggests that while systemic risks are muted, stock-specific events can still drive considerable losses.
Other Risks: An absence of reported short interest implies the market currently holds a relatively bullish or neutral consensus on the stock's prospects, reducing the immediate risk of a short squeeze. However, this positive sentiment also means there is less of a "floor" of potential short covering to cushion future price declines, and investors should remain vigilant for stock-specific news or sector-wide challenges that could impact liquidity and valuation.
FAQs
Neutral - ACI presents a mixed opportunity suitable for risk-averse or value-oriented investors. The stock appears fundamentally undervalued based on multiples like its low P/E and compelling PEG ratio, and its low beta suggests defensive characteristics. However, this is counterbalanced by recent margin compression, a Q3 revenue miss, and tepid sales guidance, which signal near-term operational headwinds. Given the stable but underperforming technical picture and neutral analyst ratings, it may appeal most to patient, long-term investors comfortable with the competitive pressures in the grocery sector.
ACI appears undervalued based on key valuation metrics versus typical market averages. Its trailing P/E of 10.2 and forward P/E of 8.3 are low (especially compared to broad market averages like the S&P 500's ~20+ P/E), and its PEG ratio of 0.1 is exceptionally compelling, signaling strong expected earnings growth relative to its price. While the high P/B of 3.54 suggests a premium to book value, the combination of low earnings multiples and a very low price-to-sales ratio of 0.11 indicates the market is not fully pricing in its profitability improvement (evidenced by a rising gross margin to 27.4%) and growth potential.
Of course. Here is a professional risk assessment for holding Albertsons Companies (ACI) stock, based on the provided information.
Key Risks of Holding ACI Stock
1. Stock-Specific Price Decline Risk: Despite a low market beta, the stock has experienced a significant maximum drawdown of -29.77%, indicating high vulnerability to company-specific negative events or sector-wide challenges that can lead to substantial losses independent of overall market movements. 2. Margin and Profitability Risk: Recent financial results reveal severe pressure on profitability, with a significant decline in net income to $1.2 million and a compressed operating margin of 2.5%, signaling potential inefficiencies or rising costs that threaten earnings stability. 3. Persistent Underperformance Risk: The stock has demonstrated a pattern of trailing the market by nearly 4 percentage points recently, suggesting a lack of positive catalysts and creating a risk of continued capital stagnation or underappreciation relative to other investments.
Based on the mixed fundamental data provided, here is a forecast for ACI stock through 2026.
My base case target range for 2026 is $18-$25, with a bull case of up to $30, contingent on a successful profitability turnaround. Key growth drivers are the potential for a valuation re-rating if margins recover, continued top-line stability, and effective cost management to reverse the sharp decline in net income. This forecast assumes the company can stabilize its operating margins and translate revenue growth into improved bottom-line results, but it carries significant uncertainty given the current operational challenges and contradictory valuation signals. The stock's performance is highly dependent on demonstrating clearer evidence of sustainable profitability.