Autodesk
ADSK
$189.73
-1.50%
Autodesk Inc. is a multinational software company that pioneered computer-aided design (CAD) and now provides design software across key verticals including architecture, engineering, construction, manufacturing, and media & entertainment. The company is a dominant market leader in its core CAD and building information modeling (BIM) segments, serving as an essential digital tool provider for professionals designing physical infrastructure and digital content. The current investor narrative is dominated by concerns over near-term execution and the pace of its AI integration strategy, as evidenced by a significant stock price decline following its Q1 2026 earnings report despite beating estimates, indicating a market focused on growth sustainability and competitive positioning in an AI-driven landscape.…
ADSK
Autodesk
$189.73
Related headlines
ADSK 12-Month Price Forecast
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Autodesk's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $246.65 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.
Average Target
$246.65
10 analysts
Implied Upside
+30.0%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
10
covering this stock
Price Range
$152 - $247
Analyst target range
Insufficient analyst coverage data is available to provide a detailed consensus view; the provided data includes only 8 analysts with revenue estimates but lacks explicit target prices, buy/hold/sell ratings, or a consensus recommendation. This limited coverage, despite the company's large market cap, may indicate a period of transition or uncertainty following its recent earnings report and stock decline, leading to less efficient price discovery and potentially higher volatility. The recent institutional ratings from February and March 2026 show a series of reaffirmations of Buy/Overweight/Outperform ratings from major firms like Citigroup, Barclays, and Wells Fargo, suggesting maintained bullish sentiment among covering analysts despite the price drop, though the absence of updated targets post-Q1 earnings limits the current signal strength.
Bulls vs Bears: ADSK Investment Factors
The investment debate for Autodesk is a classic clash between strong underlying fundamentals and severely damaged market sentiment. The bull case is anchored in robust 19.8% revenue growth, exceptional 92.7% gross margins, and a deeply oversold technical setup near 52-week lows. The bear case is driven by catastrophic price action, a still-elevated trailing valuation premium, and palpable market fear regarding its AI strategy execution. Currently, the bearish evidence from momentum and sentiment appears stronger, as the stock's violent decline suggests a fundamental re-rating is underway. The single most important tension is whether the company's dominant market position and high cash flow can successfully fund a credible AI product transition fast enough to arrest the negative narrative and justify its valuation before growth expectations are reset lower.
Bullish
- Strong Revenue Growth & Acceleration: Latest quarterly revenue grew 19.84% YoY to $1.957B, accelerating sequentially from $1.853B in the prior quarter. This robust growth, led by the Architecture, Engineering, and Construction segment ($1.896B), demonstrates resilient demand for its essential software tools.
- Exceptional Profitability & Cash Flow: The company boasts a stellar gross margin of 92.74% and generated $2.402B in trailing twelve-month free cash flow. This high-quality earnings profile and strong cash generation provide ample resources for AI investments, share buybacks, and navigating market volatility.
- Deeply Oversold Technical Condition: The stock is trading at $193.82, just 59% of the distance from its 52-week low of $190.86 to its high of $329.09, following a -35.41% six-month decline. This extreme oversold condition, coupled with a forward P/E of 13.6x, suggests significant negative sentiment may be overdone.
- Analyst Bullish Sentiment Persists: Despite the sharp price decline, major institutions like Citigroup, Barclays, and Wells Fargo reaffirmed Buy/Overweight ratings in early 2026. This maintained bullish sentiment among covering analysts indicates a belief that the long-term thesis remains intact despite near-term concerns.
Bearish
- Severe Negative Momentum & Underperformance: The stock has dramatically underperformed the market, with a 1-month decline of -20.62% vs. the S&P 500's +0.74% gain and a 1-year decline of -34.34%. This accelerating selling pressure signals a lack of near-term catalysts and deep investor skepticism.
- Elevated Trailing Valuation Premium: The trailing P/E of 47.89x represents a 118% premium to the implied industry average of 22x. This premium is difficult to justify given the stock's recent collapse and suggests the market is still pricing in aggressive growth expectations that may be at risk.
- Investor Doubt on AI Strategy & Execution: The stock sank after its Q1 2026 earnings beat, as highlighted in recent news, due to concerns over near-term execution and the pace of its AI integration. This indicates the market is penalizing the stock for perceived strategic shortcomings relative to AI leaders like Dell.
- High Beta & Volatility Amplifies Risk: With a beta of 1.295, ADSK is approximately 30% more volatile than the broader market. This amplifies downside risk during market selloffs and increases the potential for further losses if negative sentiment persists.
ADSK Technical Analysis
The stock is in a pronounced downtrend, with a 1-year price change of -34.34% and a 6-month decline of -35.41%. As of the latest close of $193.82, the price is trading near the bottom of its 52-week range, positioned at just 59% of the distance from its 52-week low of $190.86 to its high of $329.09, indicating a deeply oversold condition that may present a value opportunity but also reflects severe negative momentum. Recent momentum is sharply negative and accelerating, with a 1-month decline of -20.62% and a 3-month drop of -21.84%, both significantly underperforming the S&P 500's gains of 0.74% and 15.14% over the same periods, respectively, signaling intense selling pressure and a lack of near-term catalysts. Key technical support is the 52-week low of $190.86, with resistance at the recent breakdown level near $250; a decisive break below support could trigger further downside, while a recovery above $250 is needed to signal a potential trend reversal. The stock's beta of 1.295 indicates it is approximately 30% more volatile than the broader market, which amplifies both downside risk and potential upside during a recovery.
Beta
1.29
1.29x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-42.6%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$186-$329
Price range past year
Annual Return
-37.3%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | ADSK Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | -20.4% | -2.2% |
| 3m | -17.5% | +15.8% |
| 6m | -36.9% | +6.4% |
| 1y | -37.3% | +20.9% |
| ytd | -33.8% | +7.7% |
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ADSK Fundamental Analysis
Revenue growth remains robust, with the latest quarterly revenue of $1.957 billion representing a 19.84% year-over-year increase, and sequential growth from the prior quarter's $1.853 billion suggests a healthy multi-quarter acceleration. The Architecture, Engineering, and Construction segment, at $1.896 billion, is the primary growth driver, significantly outpacing other segments like Manufacturing ($736 million) and Media & Entertainment ($176 million). Profitability is strong, with net income of $316 million and an exceptionally high gross margin of 92.74% for the quarter, though operating margins have shown some quarterly variability, ranging from 14.27% in Q1 2025 to 27.13% in the latest Q4 2026, indicating potential volatility in cost management. The company is solidly profitable with a trailing net margin of 15.60%, which is high for the software industry, supporting a quality earnings profile. The balance sheet and cash flow are healthy, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.90 and robust free cash flow generation of $2.402 billion on a trailing twelve-month basis, providing ample internal funding for growth and shareholder returns, as evidenced by significant stock repurchase activity of $916 million in the latest quarter. The return on equity of 36.91% is excellent, indicating efficient use of shareholder capital, though the current ratio of 0.85 suggests a relatively high level of current liabilities compared to assets.
Quarterly Revenue
$2.0B
2026-01
Revenue YoY Growth
+0.19%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
+0.92%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$2.4B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is ADSK Overvalued?
Given a positive net income of $316 million, the primary valuation metric is the Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio. The trailing PE is elevated at 47.89x, while the forward PE is substantially lower at 13.60x, indicating the market expects a significant earnings acceleration in the coming year to justify the current price. Compared to the provided industry average PE of 22x (implied from historical context), Autodesk's trailing multiple trades at a 118% premium, which is difficult to justify given its recent growth deceleration and stock price weakness, suggesting the premium may be contracting. Historically, the stock's own trailing PE has ranged widely, from a low near 40x to highs above 150x in recent years; the current 47.89x sits near the lower end of its own historical band, which could indicate either a value opportunity if fundamentals stabilize or a warranted de-rating if growth expectations are being reset.
PE
47.9x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Low-End
5-Year PE Range 40x~154x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
30.2x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial & Operational Risks: Autodesk's primary financial risk is its elevated trailing P/E of 47.9x, which creates significant valuation compression risk if its 19.8% revenue growth decelerates. While free cash flow of $2.4B is robust, the current ratio of 0.85 indicates a relatively high level of current liabilities, which could pressure liquidity in a severe downturn. Furthermore, quarterly operating margin volatility—ranging from 14.3% to 27.1% over the past year—suggests potential inefficiencies in cost management that could undermine earnings predictability.
Market & Competitive Risks: The stock trades at a 118% premium to the industry-average P/E, leaving it highly vulnerable to multiple compression if growth stock sentiment sours or if it fails to articulate a compelling AI narrative. Its beta of 1.295 means it will likely fall 30% more than the market in a correction, amplifying macro risks. Competitively, the recent news highlighting Dell's 'blowout AI sales' creates a stark contrast, raising investor concerns that Autodesk is being left behind in the AI infrastructure buildout, potentially leading to sector rotation away from the stock.
Worst-Case Scenario: The worst-case scenario involves a continuation of the current negative momentum, where concerns over AI strategy lead to a growth slowdown, triggering analyst downgrades and a full de-rating towards its historical valuation floor. This could see the stock break its key technical support at the 52-week low of $190.86 and test levels implied by a market-average P/E applied to lowered earnings. A realistic downside from the current $193.82 could be -35% to -40%, revisiting the lows of the maximum drawdown period around $116, if sentiment completely collapses and growth stalls.