AMAT

Applied Materials

$668.00

+13.42%
Jun 25, 2026
Bobby Quantitative Model
Applied Materials Inc is the world's largest manufacturer of semiconductor wafer fabrication equipment (WFE), providing a broad portfolio of systems used to produce virtually every new chip and advanced display. The company is a dominant market leader, particularly in deposition technologies, and serves as a critical enabler for the world's largest chipmakers, including TSMC, Intel, and Samsung. The current investor narrative is overwhelmingly centered on the company's direct exposure to the AI-driven semiconductor equipment boom, with recent news highlighting record profitability and strategic acquisitions aimed at capturing growth in advanced chip packaging, positioning AMAT as a core holding for this investment cycle.

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AMAT 12-Month Price Forecast

Historical Price
Current Price $668
Average Target $668
High Target $768.1999999999999
Low Target $567.8

Wall Street consensus

Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Applied Materials's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $868.40 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.

Average Target

$868.40

14 analysts

Implied Upside

+30.0%

vs. current price

Analyst Count

14

covering this stock

Price Range

$534 - $868

Analyst target range

Buy
4 (29%)
Hold
7 (50%)
Sell
3 (21%)

Analyst coverage is robust, with 10 analysts providing estimates, indicating strong institutional interest. The consensus sentiment is overwhelmingly bullish, as evidenced by the recent institutional ratings from major firms like Morgan Stanley, Barclays, Goldman Sachs, and Citigroup, all maintaining Buy, Overweight, or Outperform ratings. The average target price is implied by the estimated EPS average of $21.18 and the forward P/E of 37.95, which suggests a consensus price target of approximately $803. This represents a significant implied upside of roughly 30% from the current price of $617.11. The target range, derived from estimated EPS, spans from a low of $18.94 to a high of $22.60. Applying the forward P/E multiple implies a price range from approximately $718 to $857. The high end of the target range likely assumes continued market share gains, sustained high margins, and successful execution on AI and advanced packaging trends. The low end may factor in potential risks such as cyclical downturns in semiconductor capex, geopolitical supply chain disruptions, or competitive pressures. The wide spread between high and low targets reflects the inherent uncertainty and volatility in the semiconductor equipment sector. The unanimous bullish stance from recent analyst actions, with no downgrades noted, signals strong near-term conviction in the story.

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AMAT Technical Analysis

The stock is in a powerful, sustained uptrend, evidenced by a staggering 257.04% one-year price change. As of the latest close of $617.11, the stock is trading at approximately 96.6% of its 52-week high of $638.9, indicating it is near its peak and reflecting extreme momentum and investor optimism, but also raising concerns about potential overextension. The short-term momentum is exceptionally strong and accelerating, with a 51.66% gain over the past month and a 72.83% gain over three months, far outpacing the S&P 500's respective gains of 0.74% and 15.14%. This divergence from the broader market underscores the stock's leadership in the AI/semiconductor thematic trade. Key technical support is anchored at the 52-week low of $154.47, though the stock is currently trading nearly 300% above that level, making it a distant psychological floor. Immediate resistance is the 52-week high of $638.9; a decisive breakout above this level could signal a continuation of the parabolic move, while a failure could trigger a sharp pullback. The stock's beta of 1.672 indicates it is approximately 67% more volatile than the S&P 500, which is critical for risk management as it implies larger swings in both directions. The recent price action, including a 4.08% single-day gain, confirms high volatility and strong buying interest. The stock's positioning near all-time highs, combined with its high beta, suggests it is a high-momentum, high-risk instrument. A breakdown below the recent consolidation range (evident from the price data showing swings between ~$400 and $600 in recent months) would be a significant technical warning sign. The extreme relative strength readings, such as a 232.05-point outperformance versus the S&P 500 over one year, highlight its status as a market leader but also its vulnerability to a sector-wide rotation.

Beta

1.67

1.67x market volatility

Max Drawdown

-21.6%

Largest decline past year

52-Week Range

$154-$669

Price range past year

Annual Return

+264.9%

Cumulative gain past year

PeriodAMAT ReturnS&P 500
1m+46.8%-2.2%
3m+98.1%+15.8%
6m+155.1%+6.4%
1y+264.9%+20.9%
ytd+148.4%+7.7%

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AMAT Fundamental Analysis

Revenue growth has been robust, with the most recent Q1 FY2026 revenue reaching $7.012 billion, though it showed a slight year-over-year decline of 2.15%. However, examining the multi-quarter trend from the income statements reveals a strong sequential recovery: revenue grew from $6.646B in Q2 FY2024 to a peak of $7.302B in Q3 FY2025 before the recent quarter's $7.012B. The Semiconductor Systems segment, at $5.141 billion in the latest quarter, is the primary growth driver, significantly larger than the Applied Global Services segment at $1.559 billion, underscoring the company's leverage to capital equipment spending cycles. Profitability is exceptionally strong, with net income of $2.026 billion in Q1 FY2026 and a net margin of 24.67%. Gross margin has remained healthy and stable, reported at 48.99% for the quarter, consistent with the trailing gross margin of 48.67%. Operating margins are also robust at 29.22%, indicating efficient cost control. The company is highly profitable, and margins have shown resilience, with the operating margin expanding from 28.65% in Q3 FY2024 to the current 29.22%, demonstrating an ability to maintain pricing power and operational efficiency. The balance sheet is solid, with a strong current ratio of 2.61 and a conservative debt-to-equity ratio of 0.345. Return on Equity is outstanding at 34.28%, reflecting highly efficient use of shareholder capital. Most importantly, the company generates substantial cash, with trailing twelve-month free cash flow of $6.194 billion. This strong FCF, which equates to a high single-digit yield on market cap, provides ample liquidity to fund growth initiatives, strategic acquisitions (like NEXX), and shareholder returns via dividends (payout ratio of 19.8%) and share buybacks without reliance on excessive external financing.

Quarterly Revenue

$7.0B

2026-01

Revenue YoY Growth

-0.02%

YoY Comparison

Gross Margin

+0.48%

Latest Quarter

Free Cash Flow

$6.2B

Last 12 Months

Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)

Revenue Breakdown

Applied Global Services
Semiconductor Systems
Corporate And Reconciling Items

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Valuation Analysis: Is AMAT Overvalued?

Given the company's substantial net income of $2.026 billion, the primary valuation metric is the P/E ratio. The trailing P/E is 26.56x, while the forward P/E is 37.95x based on estimated EPS. The significant premium of the forward multiple suggests the market is pricing in strong future earnings growth, aligning with the AI-driven investment thesis and raised guidance. Compared to sector averages, AMAT trades at a substantial premium. Its trailing P/E of 26.56x and forward P/E of 37.95x are well above typical semiconductor equipment peer averages, which often range in the low-to-mid 20s for trailing P/E. Similarly, its Price/Sales ratio of 6.56x and EV/EBITDA of 19.25x are elevated. This premium is likely justified by the company's market-leading position, exposure to secular AI growth, and superior profitability metrics like its 34.28% ROE, which outpaces many peers. Historically, the stock's current valuation is near the upper end of its own range. The historical ratios data shows the trailing P/E has fluctuated significantly, from lows around 11.85x in late 2022 to recent highs above 31x in early 2026. The current P/E of 26.56x sits above the median of this multi-year range, indicating the market is pricing in optimistic expectations. Trading near historical valuation highs suggests that future returns may be more dependent on continued earnings growth and multiple sustainability rather than multiple expansion, increasing sensitivity to any growth disappointments.

PE

26.6x

Latest Quarter

vs. Historical

High-End

5-Year PE Range 12x~31x

vs. Industry Avg

N/A

Industry PE ~N/A*

EV/EBITDA

19.3x

Enterprise Value Multiple