Amcor plc
AMCRAmcor is a global leader in packaging solutions for food, beverage, pharmaceutical, and personal care products.
The company's identity is defined by its massive scale, sustainability focus, and essential role in protecting and preserving goods consumed globally every day.
Updated: February 19, 2026, 16:00 EST
Investment Opinion: Should I buy AMCR Today?
Based on the provided analysis, here is a comprehensive review of AMCR.
Technical Analysis AMCR is demonstrating exceptionally strong positive momentum, significantly outperforming the market with double-digit gains over one and three months. This performance is particularly impressive given the stock's low beta, suggesting the gains have been achieved with below-average volatility. While the stock is trading near the top of its 52-week range, it is not technically overbought, indicating the bullish trend could have room to continue despite being extended.
Fundamental Analysis The company's fundamentals reveal significant challenges. The most recent quarter showed a decline in revenue and a sharp contraction in profitability margins, pointing to potential operational or pricing pressures. Furthermore, key efficiency metrics like ROE and asset turnover are weak, and the extended cash conversion cycle indicates inefficient working capital management, which weighs on overall financial health.
Valuation & Risk Valuation appears stretched, with elevated multiples like the TTM P/E of 38.38 and high EV/EBITDA suggesting the stock is priced for significant future growth that current fundamentals do not support. The primary risk is not volatility—given the low beta—but rather the potential for the price to correct if the company's financial performance fails to improve and justify its premium valuation.
Investment Recommendation
While the technical momentum is compelling, the deteriorating fundamentals and rich valuation create a significant disparity. The stock's price appears to be running ahead of its actual business performance. For a purchase to be justified, investors would need to see clear evidence of a turnaround in profitability and operational efficiency. Based on this analysis, AMCR is not currently a recommended buy. Investors should monitor forthcoming earnings for signs of fundamental improvement before considering a position.
*Note: This is not investment advice, for reference only.*
AMCR 12-Month Price Forecast
RockFlow Model Forecast: Three Scenarios for 2026
Based on the comprehensive analysis, the 12-month outlook for AMCR is cautious due to a significant divergence between its strong technical momentum and its weak fundamentals.
Key catalysts for a positive performance would be clear evidence of a fundamental turnaround, particularly a return to revenue growth, margin expansion, and improved operational efficiency in upcoming quarterly reports. The primary potential risk is a sharp price correction if the company's financial performance fails to improve and justify its current premium valuation, revealing the current price as unsustainable. While no analyst target is provided, the stretched valuation metrics suggest the risk/reward profile is unfavorable, and the stock is likely to trade within a wide range, heavily dependent on whether it can bridge the gap between its price and its underlying business performance.
Wall Street Consensus
Most Wall Street analysts are optimistic about Amcor plc's 12-month outlook, with consensus target around $49.53, indicating expected upside potential.
Bulls vs Bears: AMCR Investment Factors
Overall, AMCR has investment potential but also faces challenges. Here are key factors to weigh before investing.
Bullish
- Strong Post-Acquisition Growth: Berry acquisition driving 68% YoY sales growth and 120 bps EBITDA margin expansion.
- Attractive Valuation Metrics: Trades at forward P/E of 12.6, suggesting potential undervaluation.
- Increased Investor Confidence: Recent dividend hike and hedge fund interest signal strong institutional support.
- Recent Price Outperformance: Shares up 6% over past month, outperforming broader packaging sector.
- Sustainable Packaging Leadership: Focus on eco-friendly solutions aligns with growing market demand.
Bearish
- Reverse Stock Split Concerns: 1-for-5 reverse split may signal underlying price weakness concerns.
- Year-to-Date Underperformance: Stock remains negative YTD despite recent monthly rebound.
- Market Valuation Skepticism: Questions remain about whether current pricing reflects true value.
- Capital Structure Uncertainty: Reverse stock split raises questions about long-term financial strategy.
- Sector Competitive Pressures: Packaging industry faces intense competition and margin pressures.
AMCR Technical Analysis
AMCR has delivered exceptional outperformance with substantial double-digit gains over both short and medium timeframes.
The stock has surged 20.31% over one month and 15.45% over three months, significantly outperforming the broader market by 13.6% during the latter period, demonstrating strong positive momentum. This robust performance is particularly notable given the stock's beta of 0.668, indicating these gains were achieved with below-market volatility.
Trading at $49.53, AMCR sits in the upper quartile of its 52-week range ($38.33-$52.25), approximately 84% above its low. While not technically overbought, the current price reflects strong bullish sentiment and positions the stock near recent highs, having recovered substantially from its maximum drawdown of -24.74%.
| Period | AMCR Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +20.3% | +1.0% |
| 3m | +15.4% | +1.9% |
| 6m | +1.4% | +6.5% |
| 1y | -4.7% | +12.1% |
| ytd | +17.8% | +0.2% |
AMCR Fundamental Analysis
Revenue & Profitability AMCR's Q2 2026 revenue declined to $5.45 billion from the prior quarter's $5.75 billion. Profitability metrics weakened significantly with net profit margin falling to 3.25% from 4.56% in Q1, primarily driven by lower gross margins (16.4% vs 19.6%) despite stable operating expenses.
Financial Health The company maintains moderate leverage with a 59.2% total debt to capitalization ratio and a current ratio of 1.3, though the weak cash ratio (0.16) indicates limited liquidity. Interest coverage remains adequate at 2.7x, but the cash flow to debt ratio of just 0.03 suggests constrained debt servicing capacity from operational cash flows.
Operational Efficiency AMCR's operational efficiency appears challenged with low returns (ROE of 1.5%, ROA of 0.5%) and weak asset utilization (asset turnover of 0.15). The extended cash conversion cycle of 61 days, driven by high inventory and receivables periods, indicates working capital management inefficiencies impacting overall returns.
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Level AMCR's current valuation metrics present a mixed picture. The TTM PE ratio of 38.38 and forward PE of 27.28 suggest elevated earnings multiples, though forward expectations indicate some moderation. The negative PEG ratio signifies declining growth projections, while the high EV/EBITDA of 41.65 further reinforces a premium valuation level. Collectively, these metrics point toward an overvalued position relative to the company's current earnings and cash flow generation.
Peer Comparison Without industry benchmark data, a relative valuation assessment cannot be accurately completed. In the absence of comparable industry averages for PE, PB, or EV/EBITDA ratios, it is not possible to determine whether AMCR trades at a premium or discount to its sector peers. A meaningful peer comparison would require relevant industry data to contextualize these standalone valuation metrics.
Investment Risk Disclosure
Volatility Risk AMCR demonstrates below-average volatility with a Beta of 0.668, implying its price movements are about 33% less pronounced than the broader market. However, the stock has experienced a significant 1-year maximum drawdown of -24.74%, indicating it is still susceptible to substantial price declines during market downturns. This combination suggests that while AMCR is generally less volatile, it is not immune to substantial drawdown risk.
Other Risks The notable absence of any reported short interest suggests that the market has a relatively positive or neutral view on the stock's near-term prospects, eliminating a source of potential downward pressure. This absence can also indicate lower liquidity, but given AMCR's status as a prominent packaging company, it is more likely attributable to a lack of bearish conviction than a meaningful liquidity risk.
FAQs
Bullish - AMCR appears reasonably attractive for long-term, income-focused investors. The stock combines strong technical momentum (20%+ recent gains) with fundamental tailwinds from the Berry acquisition driving sales growth and margin expansion. While valuation appears elevated on absolute metrics, the forward P/E of 12.6 and dividend hike suggest value for patient investors willing to overlook near-term working capital inefficiencies. Suitable for investors seeking sustainable packaging exposure with below-market volatility.
Based on the provided data, AMCR stock appears to be overvalued. Its current valuation metrics, particularly a high TTM PE of 38.38, a forward PE of 27.28, and an exceptionally high EV/EBITDA of 41.65, suggest a premium price. These multiples are difficult to justify given the company's weakening fundamental performance, which includes declining revenue, contracting profit margins (net margin of 3.25%), and very poor returns (ROE of 1.5%). The negative PEG ratio further confirms that its high price is not supported by growth expectations.
Based on the provided information, the key risks of holding AMCR are:
1. Business Performance Risk: The deterioration in fundamental performance—specifically the recent quarter-over-quarter decline in revenue, profit margin, and gross margin—indicates challenges in core profitability and operational momentum. 2. Operational Inefficiency Risk: Weak returns on equity and assets (ROE 1.5%, ROA 0.5%), coupled with an extended 61-day cash conversion cycle, point to ineffective asset utilization and working capital management, which pressure overall financial returns. 3. Financial Liquidity Risk: The company's capacity to service its debt is constrained, as evidenced by a very low cash flow to debt ratio (0.03) and a weak cash ratio (0.16), despite having a manageable debt level and adequate interest coverage.
Based on a cautious outlook from the fundamental analysis, the forecast for AMCR through 2026 is one of high uncertainty with a potential for a price correction. If the company demonstrates a successful turnaround with revenue stabilization and margin recovery, a base case target could converge toward the $45-50 range. A bull case, dependent on clear evidence of a fundamental rebound and improved operational efficiency, could push the stock toward the $55-60 range.
Key growth drivers would be a return to revenue growth, significant margin expansion, and a reduction in the cash conversion cycle to improve working capital. The main assumptions are that management can execute a operational turnaround and that macroeconomic conditions do not further pressure the packaging industry.
The forecast is highly uncertain and hinges entirely on upcoming quarterly reports providing evidence of this fundamental improvement; failure to do so increases the risk of a sharp correction below current levels.