Affiliated Managers Group
AMG
$356.21
+1.02%
Affiliated Managers Group (AMG) is a global asset management firm that partners with independent boutique investment managers, acquiring majority stakes and providing strategic, operational, and distribution support while allowing affiliates to maintain their investment autonomy. The company operates as a unique 'partnership' model in the asset management industry, distinguishing itself from traditional asset managers by its diversified network of specialized affiliates across private markets, liquid alternatives, and traditional equity and fixed income strategies. As of March 2026, AMG's affiliate network managed $882.0 billion in assets, with a notable shift toward alternative strategies, which now account for 46% of AUM. The current investor narrative centers on AMG's successful pivot to higher-growth private markets and liquid alternatives, which has driven a significant re-rating of the stock, as evidenced by its 63% one-year price appreciation, alongside ongoing debates about the sustainability of organic growth and the impact of market volatility on fee-related earnings.…
AMG
Affiliated Managers Group
$356.21
Investment Opinion: Should I buy AMG Today?
Based on the analysis, AMG is rated a Buy. The thesis is that AMG's strategic pivot to alternatives is driving exceptional growth, yet the stock trades at a discount to its growth rate, offering significant upside. The consensus 'Strong Buy' rating and average target price of $437.57 (22.8% upside) support this view.
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AMG 12-Month Price Forecast
AMG's growth trajectory and valuation make it an attractive investment, but the reliance on performance fees and market sensitivity warrant caution. The AI stance is bullish with medium confidence, as the fundamentals are strong but the stock's high beta and extended rally pose risks. If AMG can sustain its growth and maintain AUM, the stock has significant upside; however, any disappointment could lead to a sharp correction. Upgrades to the stance would occur if revenue growth continues to accelerate and AUM grows organically, while downgrades would follow if performance fees decline or market volatility increases.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Affiliated Managers Group's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $437.57 and implied upside of +22.8% versus the current price.
Average Target
$437.57
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+22.8%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$360 - $512
Analyst target range
AMG has coverage from 7 analysts, with a consensus recommendation of 'Strong Buy' and a mean recommendation score of 1.43 (where 1 is Strong Buy and 5 is Sell). The average target price is $437.57, implying a 22.8% upside from the current price of $356.21. The analyst sentiment is overwhelmingly bullish, with no Hold or Sell ratings, and recent actions include upgrades from B of A Securities (from Neutral to Buy) and TD Cowen (from Hold to Buy), indicating positive momentum in analyst sentiment.
Bulls vs Bears: AMG Investment Factors
AMG presents a compelling bull case with explosive revenue growth, high profitability, and a discounted valuation relative to growth, supported by strong analyst conviction. However, the bear case highlights valuation extension, dependence on volatile performance fees, and elevated debt levels. Currently, the bull case has stronger evidence given the PEG ratio of 0.22 and forward PE of 8.3x, which suggest the market is not fully pricing in growth. The key tension is whether AMG can sustain its organic growth and performance fee generation; if it does, the stock has significant upside, but any slowdown could trigger a sharp re-rating.
Bullish
- Explosive Revenue Growth: Q4 2025 revenue surged 52.7% YoY to $800.4M, accelerating from $528.0M in Q3 2025, driven by strong performance fees and higher average AUM, particularly in private markets and liquid alternatives.
- Undervalued on Growth: With a PEG ratio of 0.22 and forward PE of 8.3x, AMG trades at a significant discount to its growth rate, suggesting the market has not fully priced in its earnings acceleration.
- High Profitability: Gross margin stands at 83.3% (86.0% per valuation data), net margin at 29.3%, and ROE at 22.1%, all well above industry averages, reflecting the asset-light, high-margin nature of its business.
- Strong Analyst Conviction: Consensus rating is 'Strong Buy' with a mean score of 1.43 (1=Strong Buy), and the average target price of $437.57 implies 22.8% upside. No Hold or Sell ratings, with recent upgrades from BofA and TD Cowen.
Bearish
- Extended Valuation Risk: The stock is trading at 90.7% of its 52-week range, near the high of $392.92, and has rallied 63.1% in one year, raising concerns about a potential pullback if momentum stalls.
- Dependence on Performance Fees: Q4 revenue growth was heavily driven by performance fees, which are volatile and not guaranteed, making future revenue streams less predictable and potentially unsustainable.
- High Debt Levels: Debt-to-equity ratio of 0.83 indicates significant leverage, which could strain cash flows if markets decline or interest rates rise, increasing financial risk.
- Market Sensitivity: With a beta of 1.108, AMG is more volatile than the market, and a downturn in equity markets could negatively impact AUM and fee income, as seen in the 19.72% max drawdown.
AMG Technical Analysis
AMG is in a strong, sustained uptrend, with the stock price up 63.1% over the past year, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's 20.5% gain. The current price of $356.21 sits at 90.7% of its 52-week range (between $218.22 low and $392.92 high), indicating the stock is trading near its highs, which reflects robust momentum but also potential overextension. The stock's beta of 1.108 suggests slightly higher volatility than the market, and the 52-week range positioning near the top suggests bullish sentiment, though investors should be cautious of a potential pullback given the extended nature of the rally.
Beta
1.11
1.11x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-19.7%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$223-$393
Price range past year
Annual Return
+63.1%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | AMG Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +2.7% | +3.6% |
| 3m | +18.0% | +2.7% |
| 6m | +23.8% | +11.4% |
| 1y | +63.1% | +18.7% |
| ytd | +23.3% | +12.3% |
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AMG Fundamental Analysis
AMG's revenue trajectory has been robust, with the most recent quarter (Q4 2025) reporting revenue of $800.4 million, a 52.7% year-over-year increase, and a sequential acceleration from $528.0 million in Q3 2025. This growth is driven by strong performance fees and higher average AUM, particularly in private markets and liquid alternatives, which have seen increased client demand. The company's gross margin remains high at 83.3%, reflecting the asset-light nature of its business, and the revenue growth is broad-based across its affiliate network, with no single segment dominating, though alternatives are increasingly contributing to the mix.
Quarterly Revenue
$800400000.0B
2025-12
Revenue YoY Growth
+52.7%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
83.3%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$977999999.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
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Valuation Analysis: Is AMG Overvalued?
Given AMG's positive net income, the PE ratio is the primary valuation metric. The trailing PE is 11.4x, while the forward PE is 8.3x, indicating the market expects significant earnings growth, which is supported by the PEG ratio of 0.22, suggesting the stock is undervalued relative to its growth rate. Compared to the industry average PE of 15x (based on available data), AMG trades at a 24% discount, which is notable given its superior ROE of 22.1% and net margin of 29.3%. Historically, AMG's PE has ranged from 1.9x to 16.9x over the past five years, and the current 11.4x is near the middle of this range, suggesting there is room for multiple expansion if the company continues to deliver on its growth strategy.
PE
11.4x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Mid-Range
5-Year PE Range 5x~15x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
6.9x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial risks are notable: AMG carries a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.83, indicating substantial leverage that could amplify losses in a downturn. The company's reliance on performance fees, which contributed to the 52.7% revenue surge in Q4 2025, introduces volatility; these fees are discretionary and can fluctuate with market conditions. Additionally, while free cash flow is strong at $978M TTM, the payout ratio is minimal (0.14%), suggesting limited dividend support for investors. If markets decline, AUM could shrink, reducing fee income and pressuring margins, as evidenced by the 19.72% max drawdown.
FAQ
The key risks are: 1) Financial risk from high debt (debt-to-equity of 0.83) and reliance on volatile performance fees, which could cause earnings swings. 2) Market risk, as the stock has a beta of 1.108 and is sensitive to equity market movements; a downturn could reduce AUM and fee income. 3) Competitive risk from other asset managers and the shift to passive investing, which could pressure fees. 4) Company-specific risk if key affiliates underperform or if the alternatives strategy fails to deliver expected growth. The most severe risk is a market correction, which could lead to a 38.7% decline to the 52-week low of $218.22.
The 12-month forecast is bullish, with a base case target of $437.57 (22.8% upside) and a bull case target of $512 (43.7% upside). The bear case target is $218.22 (38.7% downside), but this is less likely (15% probability). The most likely scenario (50% probability) is that AMG delivers moderate growth in line with analyst estimates, leading to a price around the average target. The key assumption is that revenue growth continues at a strong pace, driven by alternatives and performance fees. If growth disappoints, the stock could fall, but the current valuation provides a margin of safety.
AMG is undervalued relative to its growth and peers. The trailing PE is 11.4x, while the forward PE is 8.3x, both below the industry average of 15x. The PEG ratio of 0.22 is well below 1, indicating the stock is cheap for its growth rate. Historically, AMG's PE has ranged from 1.9x to 16.9x over the past five years, and the current 11.4x is near the middle, suggesting room for expansion. The market is pricing in modest growth, but if AMG delivers on its revenue acceleration, the stock could re-rate higher. The valuation implies the market is skeptical of the sustainability of performance fees, but the strong fundamentals suggest otherwise.
AMG is a good buy for investors with a medium-to-high risk tolerance, given its strong growth and undervaluation. The stock has a forward PE of 8.3x and a PEG ratio of 0.22, indicating it is cheap relative to its growth rate. Analyst consensus is 'Strong Buy' with an average target of $437.57, implying 22.8% upside. However, the stock is near its 52-week high and has a beta of 1.108, so it is sensitive to market swings. The biggest risk is a market downturn that could reduce AUM and performance fees, leading to a potential 38.7% downside to the 52-week low. Overall, it is a good buy for those who believe in the sustainability of its alternatives growth strategy.
AMG is suitable for long-term investment (3-5 years) given its growth trajectory and undervaluation. The company is in a growth phase, with revenue up 52.7% YoY, and its strategic shift to alternatives provides a long-term tailwind. However, the stock's beta of 1.108 and high volatility make it less suitable for short-term trading, as it can experience significant swings. The dividend yield is minimal (0.01%), so income investors may not find it attractive. For long-term investors, the PEG ratio of 0.22 suggests the stock is undervalued, and holding through market cycles could yield substantial returns. A minimum holding period of 3 years is recommended to ride out volatility and capture the growth.