Amrize Ltd

Based on a comprehensive review of AMRZ, the stock presents a compelling but high-risk growth proposition.

Technically, the stock exhibits powerful momentum, trading near its 52-week high with exceptional short-term gains. However, this strong run-up also suggests it may be approaching overbought levels. Fundamentally, the picture is mixed; while a recent sequential decline in revenue and profitability is a concern, the valuation metrics are highly promising. The significant discount of the PEG ratio (0.46) compared to the high TTM P/E indicates the market is pricing in very strong future earnings growth, which could justify the current price.

The primary risk is the stock's extreme negative beta of -1.34, which signals high volatility and a tendency to move counter to the broader market. This makes it a potentially unstable holding that may not align with general market trends. Despite the lack of direct peer comparison data, the anticipated earnings growth implied by the forward P/E and PEG ratio is a powerful positive signal.

Buy Recommendation: For investors with a high tolerance for risk, AMRZ could be a strategic buy. Its valuation suggests substantial growth potential that may outweigh recent fundamental weakness. However, its extreme volatility and counter-cyclical nature mean it should be considered a speculative position, not a core holding. Investors should be prepared for significant price swings independent of overall market direction.

RockFlow Model Forecast: Three Scenarios for 2026

Based on the provided analysis, here is a 12-month outlook for AMRZ:

12-Month Outlook for AMRZ

The primary catalyst driving AMRZ is the market's anticipation of exceptionally strong future earnings growth, as signaled by its compelling PEG ratio of 0.46. However, this bullish outlook is challenged by near-term fundamental risks, including a recent sequential decline in revenue and profitability. The most significant risk is the stock's extreme negative beta of -1.34, which indicates high volatility and a tendency to move opposite the broader market, making it a highly speculative holding. Without a specific analyst target price, investors should expect significant price swings; the stock's current momentum could push it higher if growth materializes, but a failure to meet high expectations could lead to a sharp correction, suggesting a wide potential price range of $50 to $80 over the next year.

Wall Street Consensus

Most Wall Street analysts are optimistic about Amrize Ltd's 12-month outlook, with consensus target around $63.92, indicating expected upside potential.

Overall, AMRZ has investment potential but also faces challenges. Here are key factors to weigh before investing.

AMRZ has demonstrated exceptional price appreciation with substantial outperformance against market benchmarks over recent periods. The stock has delivered strong returns while maintaining defensive characteristics, as evidenced by its negative beta suggesting counter-cyclical behavior relative to the broader market.

Over the past one and three months, AMRZ has delivered exceptional gains of 20.76% and 28.48% respectively, significantly outperforming the market by 26.63% over the three-month period. This robust short-term performance indicates strong momentum and investor confidence in the stock's prospects despite its inverse relationship to market movements suggested by the negative beta.

Currently trading at $63.92, AMRZ sits near its 52-week high of $64.84, representing approximately 98% of its yearly range, suggesting the stock is approaching overbought territory. However, the relatively moderate maximum drawdown of -15.59% over the past year indicates that despite recent strong gains, the stock has maintained reasonable price stability throughout its upward trajectory.

Revenue & Profitability: AMRZ experienced a significant quarterly revenue decline from $3.68B in Q3 to $2.84B in Q4. This contraction directly impacted profitability, with net income falling from $545M to $298M and the net income ratio decreasing from 14.8% to 10.5%, indicating pressure on margins.

Financial Health: Operating cash flow is not provided, but the company's EBITDA of $726M in Q4 provides a solid base for covering its $85M interest expense. The lack of detailed balance sheet data prevents a full assessment of the debt ratio, but the current EBITDA-to-interest coverage appears adequate.

Operational Efficiency: The sequential decline in revenue led to lower operating leverage, with the operating income ratio falling from 21.1% to 17.0%. Without complete balance sheet data for assets and equity, key efficiency metrics like Return on Equity (ROE) and asset turnover cannot be calculated or assessed.

Valuation Level: AMRZ's current TTM P/E of 39.85 indicates a premium valuation; however, the significantly lower forward P/E of 20.11 suggests robust earnings growth is expected. The PEG ratio of 0.46, being well below 1.0, supports this outlook by signaling the stock is potentially undervalued relative to its earnings growth trajectory. The elevated P/B ratio of 2.73 further confirms the market is pricing in a growth premium.

Peer Comparison: A direct comparison using industry averages is not feasible as the necessary benchmark data is unavailable. Without this contextual data, it is challenging to determine if AMRZ's valuation multiples represent a premium or discount to its sector peers. Therefore, the assessment of its relative valuation remains incomplete.

Volatility Risk

AMRZ exhibits extremely high volatility risk based on its beta of -1.34, indicating it moves inversely to the broader market but with magnified intensity. This negative beta suggests the stock tends to rise when markets fall and vice versa, creating unpredictable swings. Combined with a significant 1-year maximum drawdown of -15.59%, the stock demonstrates a high potential for substantial losses during adverse conditions.

Other Risks

Despite showing no apparent short interest, the extreme negative beta itself presents a unique risk, as it may reflect underlying instability or atypical market behavior. Additionally, the absence of short interest data could indicate low liquidity or limited market participation, potentially leading to wider bid-ask spreads and higher transaction costs. These factors contribute to an overall elevated risk profile beyond conventional metrics.