Apollo Global Management, Inc.

Based on a multi-faceted analysis of Apollo Global Management (APO), the stock presents a complex picture with distinct strengths and weaknesses for investors to weigh.

Technical Analysis The stock is in a clear downtrend, having significantly underperformed the broader market and trading near the lower end of its 52-week range. While this high volatility and sharp decline suggest the stock may be approaching oversold levels, the strong downward momentum indicates investor sentiment remains negative. A technical reversal would require a clear catalyst to break the current bearish trend.

Fundamental Analysis Fundamentally, APO shows a mixed bag. Profitability metrics like EBITDA margin remain exceptionally strong, and the company's financial health is solid with manageable debt and high interest coverage. However, concerns are noted in the declining revenue, compressed gross margins, and operational inefficiencies signaled by low asset turnover. These factors point to potential headwinds in its core business operations.

Valuation & Risk From a valuation perspective, the forward PE ratio is not excessive, but the negative PEG ratio is a red flag, hinting at potential earnings growth challenges. The primary risk is its high volatility, with a beta over 1.5, meaning it is likely to experience larger swings than the market. The lack of peer comparison data makes it difficult to assess if its current price offers a discount relative to the sector.

Investment Recommendation A cautious approach is advised. While Apollo's strong profit margins and solid balance sheet provide a foundation, the weak technical momentum, recent revenue decline, and negative growth indicators are significant concerns. Investors might consider waiting for signs of a fundamental turnaround, such as revenue stabilization or improved operational efficiency, before establishing a position. For now, it is not a compelling buy.

RockFlow Model Forecast: Three Scenarios for 2026

Based on a 12-month outlook for Apollo Global Management (APO), the stock faces near-term headwinds but holds potential for recovery if key catalysts materialize. The primary positive catalysts would be a reversal of the negative operational trends, specifically a return to revenue growth and improved operational efficiency, which would help validate the company's underlying strong profitability and solid balance sheet. The main risks are the continuation of the current downtrend, driven by persistent revenue declines and market concerns over its high volatility (beta >1.5), which could lead to further underperformance if business fundamentals do not stabilize. Given the lack of a definitive analyst target price, a prudent target range would be contingent on a successful turnaround, potentially allowing the stock to recover towards the $120-$130 area, but this is highly dependent on evidence of a fundamental improvement.

Wall Street Consensus

Most Wall Street analysts are optimistic about Apollo Global Management, Inc.'s 12-month outlook, with consensus target around $118.34, indicating expected upside potential.

Overall, APO has investment potential but also faces challenges. Here are key factors to weigh before investing.

APO has demonstrated notably weak performance, experiencing substantial declines across multiple timeframes amid elevated volatility. The stock has significantly underperformed market benchmarks, reflecting pronounced investor pessimism.

In the short term, APO has faced severe pressure, with a sharp 14.64% decline over one month compounding to an 8.06% loss over three months. Critically, the stock has underperformed the broader market by nearly 10 percentage points over the latter period, indicating independent negative sentiment rather than simply tracking a weaker market.

Currently trading 26.5% below its 52-week high and only 15.4% above its low, APO resides in the lower quartile of its annual range. Given its high beta and substantial maximum drawdown, the recent price action suggests the stock is approaching oversold territory, though the significant downward momentum warrants caution.

Revenue & Profitability APO's Q4 2025 revenue of $8.1 billion declined sequentially from Q3's $9.8 billion, though net profit margins improved to 20.8% from 17.7% despite the lower top line. The company maintains strong operational leverage with an EBITDA margin of 52.6% in Q4, though gross profit margins compressed significantly from 96.2% in Q3 to 69.7% in Q4, indicating potential revenue mix changes.

Financial Health The company exhibits moderate leverage with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.57 and total debt to capitalization of 36.4%, supported by an exceptional interest coverage ratio of 59.3 times. However, the absence of current ratio data and minimal cash ratio (0.05) warrant monitoring of near-term liquidity, particularly given the lack of operating cash flow metrics provided.

Operational Efficiency APO's return on equity of 7.2% appears modest relative to the high equity multiplier of 19.7, suggesting significant use of financial leverage. The asset turnover of just 0.018 indicates relatively low revenue generation efficiency from the asset base, while days sales outstanding of 121 days suggests extended collection periods that could impact working capital management.

Valuation Level: APO's current valuation appears mixed based on fundamental metrics. The TTM PE ratio of 12.3 and forward PE of 13.0 suggest moderate valuation levels that are not particularly demanding. However, the negative PEG ratio of -9.18 indicates potential concerns about future earnings growth prospects, while the EV/EBITDA of 18.93 presents a more premium valuation perspective.

Peer Comparison: A comparative analysis cannot be completed without industry benchmark data. The absence of industry averages for PE ratios, PB ratios, and other valuation metrics prevents meaningful assessment of APO's relative valuation position within its sector. Additional industry context would be required to determine whether APO trades at a premium or discount to its peers.

Volatility Risk: APO demonstrates elevated volatility risk, with a beta of 1.564 indicating it is approximately 56% more volatile than the broader market. This is compounded by a significant one-year maximum drawdown of -32.19%, highlighting substantial downside exposure during recent market stress periods.

Other Risks: While the notable absence of short interest suggests a favorable sentiment and lack of active bearish bets against the company, this does not eliminate other fundamental or sector-specific risks. Investors should assess operational liquidity and broader macroeconomic factors that could impact the alternative asset management industry.