APO

Apollo Global Management

$124.26

-0.41%
Apr 26, 2026
Bobby Quantitative Model
Apollo Global Management, Inc. is one of the world's largest alternative asset managers, operating in the financial services industry with a focus on private equity, credit, and real estate/real assets. The company is a dominant market leader in private credit and has built a distinct competitive identity through its integrated platform that combines asset management with retirement services, creating a unique source of permanent capital. The current investor narrative is dominated by the company's aggressive deployment of capital into large-scale acquisitions, such as its potential $10 billion move for Atlantic Aviation, signaling a growth acceleration strategy, while simultaneously navigating broader sector concerns over private credit liquidity and systemic risk highlighted by recent peer fund liquidations.

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APO 12-Month Price Forecast

Historical Price
Current Price $124.26
Average Target $124.26
High Target $142.899
Low Target $105.621

Wall Street consensus

Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Apollo Global Management's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $161.54 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.

Average Target

$161.54

5 analysts

Implied Upside

+30.0%

vs. current price

Analyst Count

5

covering this stock

Price Range

$99 - $162

Analyst target range

Buy
1 (20%)
Hold
2 (40%)
Sell
2 (40%)

Analyst coverage appears limited with only 5 analysts providing estimates, suggesting this large-cap stock may have concentrated institutional following. The consensus sentiment is strongly bullish, as evidenced by recent institutional ratings from firms like Barclays, JP Morgan, and UBS maintaining 'Overweight' or 'Buy' ratings; however, a specific consensus recommendation string and average target price are not provided in the data, preventing a calculation of implied upside or downside from the current price. The target range for estimated EPS is provided, from a low of $12.31 to a high of $13.51, indicating a relatively tight spread of about 9.8%, which signals stronger analyst conviction in the earnings outlook; the pattern of recent ratings shows no downgrades, with firms reiterating bullish stances even through market volatility, suggesting underlying fundamental confidence despite the stock's technical weakness.

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APO Technical Analysis

The stock is in a pronounced downtrend, evidenced by a 1-year price change of -6.80% and a 3-month decline of -8.84%, significantly underperforming the SPY's 30.59% and 3.59% gains over the same periods. Currently trading at $124.26, the price sits approximately 21% above its 52-week low of $99.56 but 21% below its 52-week high of $157.28, positioning it in the lower-middle of its annual range and suggesting a potential value opportunity after a substantial correction, though the persistent downtrend warrants caution. Recent momentum shows a notable divergence, with the stock posting a strong 1-month gain of 13.17%, which sharply contrasts with its negative longer-term performance; this suggests a potential short-term relief rally or mean reversion, but the 3-month decline of -8.84% indicates the broader bearish trend remains intact and the recent uptick may be a temporary pullback within a larger decline. Key technical support is clearly defined at the 52-week low of $99.56, while resistance looms near the 52-week high of $157.28; a sustained breakdown below $100 would signal a new leg down, whereas a move above $157 would indicate a major trend reversal. The stock's beta of 1.56 confirms it is 56% more volatile than the market, which amplifies both risk and potential reward, a critical factor for risk management given the stock's -35.73% maximum drawdown.

Beta

1.56

1.56x market volatility

Max Drawdown

-35.7%

Largest decline past year

52-Week Range

$100-$157

Price range past year

Annual Return

-6.8%

Cumulative gain past year

PeriodAPO ReturnS&P 500
1m+13.2%+12.6%
3m-8.8%+3.1%
6m-0.6%+3.9%
1y-6.8%+29.7%
ytd-15.2%+4.7%

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APO Fundamental Analysis

Revenue growth is robust but volatile on a quarterly basis; the most recent Q4 2025 revenue was $8.11 billion, representing a massive 53.6% year-over-year growth, though this follows a sequential decline from Q3's $9.82 billion. The multi-quarter trend shows significant fluctuation, with Q1 2025 revenue at $5.55 billion, rising to $9.82 billion in Q3 before the Q4 pullback, indicating lumpy performance typical of asset managers driven by transaction fees; segment data reveals the Retirement Services Segment ($22.27 billion) is the dominant revenue driver, vastly larger than the Asset Management Segment ($3.89 billion). Profitability is strong, with Q4 2025 net income of $1.69 billion and a trailing net margin of 14.8%; gross margin was exceptionally high at 88.5% for the trailing period, though the quarterly gross margin of 69.7% in Q4 shows compression from the 96.2% in Q3, reflecting the mix of lower-margin retirement services revenue. The company is solidly profitable with expanding income, as net income grew from $425 million in Q1 2025 to $1.69 billion in Q4, demonstrating powerful operating leverage and a trajectory toward higher sustained profitability. The balance sheet and cash flow position is exceptionally strong, highlighted by a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.57 and robust free cash flow of $5.40 billion on a TTM basis. The company's return on equity of 19.2% is impressive, indicating efficient use of shareholder capital, and the substantial free cash flow, coupled with a current ratio of 0.78, shows ample liquidity to fund operations and growth internally without reliance on excessive external financing.

Quarterly Revenue

$8.1B

2025-12

Revenue YoY Growth

+0.53%

YoY Comparison

Gross Margin

+0.69%

Latest Quarter

Free Cash Flow

$5.4B

Last 12 Months

Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)

Revenue Breakdown

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Valuation Analysis: Is APO Overvalued?

Given the positive net income of $1.69 billion, the primary valuation metric is the P/E ratio. The trailing P/E is 19.64x, while the forward P/E is significantly lower at 11.70x, implying the market expects a substantial 40% growth in earnings, aligning with analyst EPS estimates averaging $12.77 for the coming period. Compared to sector averages, Apollo's trailing P/E of 19.64x and forward P/E of 11.70x are not directly comparable to a broad industry average from the provided data, but its Price/Sales ratio of 2.90x and EV/EBITDA of 7.83x appear reasonable for a high-margin, growing asset manager, suggesting the market is pricing in its industry-leading scale and profitability. Historically, the stock's own trailing P/E of 19.64x is below its recent peak of 47.3x seen in Q1 2025 and is near the middle of its observable range over the past several quarters, which spanned from approximately 4.9x to 47.3x; this positioning suggests the market's expectations have moderated from previously euphoric levels, potentially offering a more balanced entry point if the growth trajectory holds.

PE

19.6x

Latest Quarter

vs. Historical

Mid-Range

5-Year PE Range -22x~47x

vs. Industry Avg

N/A

Industry PE ~N/A*

EV/EBITDA

7.8x

Enterprise Value Multiple

Investment Risk Disclosure