ARES

Ares Management

$123.70

+0.23%
May 18, 2026
Bobby Quantitative Model
Ares Management Corporation is a leading global alternative asset manager operating across four primary segments: credit strategies, private equity, real estate/real assets, and other alternatives, with a total of $622.5 billion in assets under management as of year-end 2025. The firm has established itself as a dominant player in the private credit and alternative investment space, serving a client base of institutional investors and high-net-worth individuals through a global network of over 35 offices. The current investor narrative is dominated by concerns over systemic risks in the private credit market, as highlighted by recent news of competitor fund liquidations and redemption caps, which have sparked a sector-wide selloff and raised questions about liquidity stress and the sustainability of growth fueled by the private credit boom.

People also watch

Strive, Inc. Variable Rate Series A Perpetual Preferred Stock

Strive, Inc. Variable Rate Series A Perpetual Preferred Stock

SATA

Analysis
Fundrise Innovation Fund, LLC

Fundrise Innovation Fund, LLC

VCX

Analysis
BlackRock

BlackRock

BLK

Analysis
Blackstone Inc.

Blackstone Inc.

BX

Analysis
The Bank of New York Mellon

The Bank of New York Mellon

BK

Analysis

ARES 12-Month Price Forecast

Historical Price
Current Price $123.7
Average Target $123.7
High Target $142.255
Low Target $105.145

Wall Street consensus

Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Ares Management's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $160.81 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.

Average Target

$160.81

2 analysts

Implied Upside

+30.0%

vs. current price

Analyst Count

2

covering this stock

Price Range

$99 - $161

Analyst target range

Buy
0 (0%)
Hold
1 (50%)
Sell
1 (50%)

Analyst coverage appears limited with only 2 analysts providing estimates, resulting in insufficient data to determine a consensus recommendation, average price target, or implied upside/downside; this sparse coverage is atypical for a firm of Ares's market cap and may indicate it is under-followed by the sell-side, potentially leading to less efficient price discovery and higher volatility. The estimated EPS range for the covered period is $8.74 to $10.00, with a revenue estimate range of $11.29 billion to $12.52 billion, indicating analyst expectations for solid growth, but the lack of a published target price range prevents an assessment of the bull vs. bear case assumptions; recent institutional rating actions show a mix of reaffirmations and upgrades in February 2026 (e.g., Raymond James to Strong Buy, Deutsche Bank to Buy), suggesting some positive sentiment shift following the stock's decline, though the overall low analyst count remains a caveat for investors.

Drowning in data?

Find the real signal!

ARES Technical Analysis

The stock is in a pronounced downtrend, with a 1-year price change of -26.85%, significantly underperforming the S&P 500's +25.19% gain, resulting in a massive -52.04% relative strength deficit. Trading at a current price of $123.41, the stock sits just 28% above its 52-week low of $95.8 and 37% below its 52-week high of $195.26, indicating it is languishing near the bottom of its annual range, which may suggest a deep value opportunity but also reflects severe negative momentum and investor pessimism. Recent momentum shows a modest 1-month gain of 3.46%, which contrasts sharply with the deeper 3-month loss of -7.82% and the 6-month decline of -15.70%, suggesting a potential stabilization or minor relief rally within a broader bearish context, though this short-term uptick has occurred alongside a -2.14% relative strength versus the market, indicating continued underperformance. Key technical support is clearly defined at the 52-week low of $95.8, while resistance looms at the 52-week high of $195.26; a breakdown below support would signal a continuation of the severe downtrend, while a sustained move above the recent high of ~$178 from December would be needed to suggest a meaningful reversal. The stock's beta of 1.521 confirms it is approximately 52% more volatile than the broader market, which amplifies both downside risk and potential upside during recoveries, a critical factor for risk-aware position sizing.

Beta

1.52

1.52x market volatility

Max Drawdown

-49.9%

Largest decline past year

52-Week Range

$96-$195

Price range past year

Annual Return

-27.3%

Cumulative gain past year

PeriodARES ReturnS&P 500
1m+5.0%+4.0%
3m-5.1%+8.2%
6m-14.8%+11.5%
1y-27.3%+24.3%
ytd-25.6%+8.3%

Bobby - Your AI Investment Partner

Get real-time data, AI-driven personalized investment analysis to make smarter investment decisions

ARES Fundamental Analysis

Revenue growth has been exceptionally strong but volatile, with Q4 2025 revenue of $1.77 billion representing a 40.25% year-over-year increase; however, this follows a sequential decline from Q3's $1.66 billion, and segment data shows the core 'Management Service' line contributed $1.01 billion, indicating the growth is heavily reliant on fee-based income which can be cyclical. Profitability metrics are mixed, with the company reporting net income of $54.2 million in Q4 2025 for a net margin of 3.07%, a sharp drop from the 17.4% net margin in Q3, while the gross margin of 72.65% in Q4 remains robust and expanded from 60.19% in Q3, suggesting underlying fee-generating operations are healthy but bottom-line results are being pressured by significant 'Other Expenses' and investment losses. The balance sheet and cash flow picture is complex, with a high debt-to-equity ratio of 3.49 indicating a leveraged structure common for asset managers, but a strong current ratio of 2.24 points to solid short-term liquidity; Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) free cash flow is a substantial $1.54 billion, yielding a healthy FCF yield, and an ROE of 12.33% demonstrates decent returns on shareholder equity, though cash flow from operations was deeply negative in Q4 due to significant working capital movements and investment activities.

Quarterly Revenue

$1.8B

2025-12

Revenue YoY Growth

+0.40%

YoY Comparison

Gross Margin

+0.72%

Latest Quarter

Free Cash Flow

$1.5B

Last 12 Months

Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)

Revenue Breakdown

Administrative Service
Carried Interest
Management Service
Management Service, Incentive
Principal Investment Income (Loss)

Open an Account, get $2 TSLA now!

Valuation Analysis: Is ARES Overvalued?

Given the positive net income, the primary valuation metric is the P/E ratio. The trailing P/E is elevated at 66.62x, while the forward P/E is significantly lower at 16.71x, based on an estimated EPS of $9.27; this wide gap implies the market is pricing in a substantial earnings recovery and growth over the next year, moving from depressed current profitability. Compared to sector averages, the stock's trailing P/E of 66.62x and Price/Sales ratio of 5.43x are not directly comparable without a provided industry benchmark, but the forward P/E of 16.71x appears more reasonable if the earnings estimates are achieved, though the EV/EBITDA of 28.69x suggests the market is still assigning a premium for the firm's asset-light, fee-generating business model and its market-leading AUM scale. Historically, the current trailing P/E of 66.62x is below the peak of 164.72x seen in Q4 2025 but remains elevated compared to its multi-year range, which has seen lows in the mid-20s; this positioning suggests the stock is not at bargain-basement historical levels, but the compression from recent extremes indicates some derating has already occurred, with future performance heavily contingent on the realization of forward earnings estimates.

PE

66.6x

Latest Quarter

vs. Historical

Mid-Range

5-Year PE Range -77x~165x

vs. Industry Avg

N/A

Industry PE ~N/A*

EV/EBITDA

28.7x

Enterprise Value Multiple