ARW

Arrow Electronics

$215.15

-6.06%
Jun 26, 2026
Bobby Quantitative Model
Arrow Electronics, Inc. is a global provider of products, services, and solutions to industrial and commercial users of electronic components and enterprise computing solutions, operating within the technology distribution industry. The company is a market leader with one of the world's broadest portfolios, serving as a critical intermediary between component manufacturers and a vast array of end-market customers. The current investor narrative is driven by a significant cyclical recovery and growth acceleration in its core components business, as evidenced by recent strong financial performance, alongside ongoing debates about the sustainability of this momentum in the face of potential macroeconomic headwinds.

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ARW 12-Month Price Forecast

Historical Price
Current Price $215.15
Average Target $215.15
High Target $247.42249999999999
Low Target $182.8775

Wall Street consensus

Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Arrow Electronics's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $279.69 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.

Average Target

$279.69

1 analysts

Implied Upside

+30.0%

vs. current price

Analyst Count

1

covering this stock

Price Range

$172 - $280

Analyst target range

Buy
0 (0%)
Hold
0 (0%)
Sell
1 (100%)

Analyst coverage for ARW appears limited, with data indicating only one analyst providing estimates. The consensus sentiment cannot be robustly determined from a single source. The available data shows an estimated EPS average of $24.44 for an unspecified period, with a range from $23.52 to $25.37, and an estimated revenue average of $43.62 billion. Without a published consensus price target or a clear Buy/Hold/Sell distribution, calculating implied upside is not possible. The minimal analyst coverage suggests ARW may be under-followed by the sell-side, which is common for mid-cap companies in the less-glamorous distribution sector. This can lead to higher volatility and less efficient price discovery, as the stock may react more to industry cycles and company-specific news than to analyst revisions. The institutional ratings history shows a pattern of stable but cautious ratings, with firms like Wells Fargo maintaining an 'Underweight' and Truist a 'Hold,' indicating a lack of strong bullish conviction among the few covering firms, which aligns with the stock's low absolute valuation multiples.

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ARW Technical Analysis

The stock is in a powerful, sustained uptrend, having gained 88.44% over the past year. With a current price of $232.70, it is trading at approximately 99.2% of its 52-week high of $234.46, indicating the stock is at peak momentum but also potentially overextended and vulnerable to a pullback. Recent momentum remains robust but shows signs of deceleration; the stock is up 12.81% over the past month and 70.30% over the past three months, though the 1-month gain is notably lower than the 3-month figure, suggesting the explosive rally may be cooling off as the stock consolidates near its highs. Key technical support is at the 52-week low of $101.79, though a more relevant near-term floor may be found around the $200 level where recent consolidation occurred. Immediate resistance is the 52-week high of $234.46; a decisive breakout above this level could signal a continuation of the bull run, while a failure here may lead to a deeper correction. The stock's beta of 1.203 indicates it is approximately 20% more volatile than the broader market (SPY), which is important for risk management given its recent parabolic move and a maximum drawdown of -23.54% observed during the provided period. The stock has demonstrated exceptional relative strength, outperforming the SPY by 63.45 percentage points over the past year and 55.16 points over the past three months. This massive outperformance, coupled with the stock trading at the very top of its 52-week range, suggests extreme bullish sentiment is priced in. Investors should watch for a break below the recent consolidation range, signaled by a drop below $210, as a potential warning of trend exhaustion.

Beta

1.20

1.20x market volatility

Max Drawdown

-23.5%

Largest decline past year

52-Week Range

$102-$237

Price range past year

Annual Return

+67.7%

Cumulative gain past year

PeriodARW ReturnS&P 500
1m-1.1%-2.9%
3m+54.1%+15.0%
6m+89.7%+5.6%
1y+67.7%+19.1%
ytd+90.3%+6.9%

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ARW Fundamental Analysis

Revenue growth has accelerated sharply, with Q4 2025 revenue of $8.75 billion representing a 20.1% year-over-year increase. This marks a significant improvement from the more modest growth seen in prior quarters of 2025, indicating a strong cyclical recovery. The growth is primarily driven by the Global Components segment, which contributed $5.88 billion in the latest period, substantially larger than the Global ECS segment's $2.86 billion, underscoring the core distribution business as the primary growth engine. Profitability has strengthened considerably, with net income for Q4 2025 reaching $194.6 million, translating to a net margin of 2.22%. Gross margin for the quarter was 11.14%, while the operating margin was 3.83%. Comparing sequentially, profitability has rebounded strongly from a weaker Q3 (net margin of 1.42%), suggesting effective cost management and operating leverage on higher sales. The trailing twelve-month free cash flow of $36.7 million, while positive, is relatively modest compared to net income, indicating working capital intensity. The balance sheet appears healthy with a current ratio of 1.36 and a conservative debt-to-equity ratio of 0.47. Return on Equity (ROE) stands at 8.68% and Return on Assets (ROA) at 2.49%, reflecting adequate but not exceptional returns on capital employed. The modest free cash flow generation of $36.7 million (TTM) relative to its market cap suggests the company's growth may be consuming cash, but the low leverage provides financial flexibility to navigate cycles without external financing stress.

Quarterly Revenue

$8.7B

2025-12

Revenue YoY Growth

+0.20%

YoY Comparison

Gross Margin

+0.11%

Latest Quarter

Free Cash Flow

$36668000.0B

Last 12 Months

Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)

Revenue Breakdown

Global Components
Global ECS

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Valuation Analysis: Is ARW Overvalued?

Given a positive net income, the primary valuation metric is the Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio. The trailing PE is 9.99x, while the forward PE is 10.91x. The slight premium on the forward multiple suggests the market expects modest earnings growth, but the narrow gap indicates expectations are tempered, not euphoric. Compared to sector averages, the stock appears undervalued on a sales basis but fairly valued on earnings. Its Price-to-Sales (PS) ratio of 0.185 is exceptionally low, typically indicating a value opportunity or low-margin business. However, its PE ratio around 10x is in line with what might be expected for a cyclical distributor, as the low net margin of 1.85% justifies a lower absolute PE. The EV/EBITDA of 7.93x further supports a valuation not demanding excessive growth. Historically, the stock's current trailing PE of 9.99x is below its own historical range observed in the data, which has seen PEs as high as 21.0x in early 2024 and as low as 4.32x in late 2022. Trading near the lower end of its multi-year PE band suggests the market is pricing in a cyclical peak or conservatism despite the strong recent performance, potentially offering a margin of safety if the growth cycle persists longer than expected.

PE

10.0x

Latest Quarter

vs. Historical

Mid-Range

5-Year PE Range 4x~21x

vs. Industry Avg

N/A

Industry PE ~N/A*

EV/EBITDA

7.9x

Enterprise Value Multiple