AngloGold Ashanti plc

Analysis of AU Stock

Technical Analysis AU has demonstrated exceptional momentum, surging 33.8% over three months while exhibiting lower volatility than the market. While trading near its 52-week high suggests potential overbought conditions, the moderate maximum drawdown indicates relatively contained downside risk during recent corrections. The technical picture points to strong bullish momentum, albeit with some near-term consolidation possible.

Fundamental Analysis The company showcases robust profitability with net income at 27.7% and strong margins near 50%, reflecting excellent operational efficiency. Financially, AU maintains a conservative balance sheet with low debt and solid liquidity, though asset turnover ratios suggest room for improved capital efficiency. These fundamentals provide a sturdy foundation supporting the stock's premium valuation.

Valuation & Risk AU trades at premium multiples (P/E 24.48, EV/EBITDA 31.12) but the significantly lower forward P/E of 13.32 implies strong earnings growth expectations. The primary risk lies in its commodity exposure to gold prices, though the low beta of 0.624 provides defensive characteristics. The lack of peer comparison data makes relative valuation challenging but doesn't detract from its growth narrative.

Recommendation AU presents a compelling case for growth-oriented investors despite its recent run-up. The combination of strong technical momentum, solid profitability, and expected earnings acceleration justifies the premium valuation. While near-term consolidation is possible, the stock's defensive characteristics and growth potential support a buy recommendation for investors with a medium-to-long-term horizon.

*Note: This analysis is for reference only and not investment advice.*

RockFlow Model Forecast: Three Scenarios for 2026

Based on the comprehensive analysis provided, here is a 12-month outlook for AU:

The outlook for AU is positive, with the primary catalyst being the significant projected earnings acceleration, as evidenced by the discounted forward P/E ratio of 13.32. This strong growth narrative, combined with the stock's robust profitability and defensive low-beta characteristics, should continue to attract investors. The key risk remains its direct exposure to any potential downturn in gold prices, which could pressure earnings despite the company's solid operational footing. While the stock may experience near-term consolidation after its strong rally, the fundamental strength supports a 12-month target price range in the high $110s to low $120s, implying moderate upside from the current level.

Wall Street Consensus

Most Wall Street analysts are optimistic about AngloGold Ashanti plc's 12-month outlook, with consensus target around $107.63, indicating expected upside potential.

Overall, AU has investment potential but also faces challenges. Here are key factors to weigh before investing.

AU has demonstrated exceptionally strong performance, significantly outperforming the market with substantial double-digit gains over recent periods. The stock has exhibited remarkable momentum, particularly over the three-month horizon, more than doubling the broader market's return.

Short-term performance shows robust momentum, with AU rising 7.73% over the past month and surging 33.8% over three months, substantially outperforming the market by 33.82 percentage points during this timeframe. The stock's low beta of 0.624 indicates these substantial gains have been achieved with relatively low volatility compared to the broader market.

Currently trading at $106.17, AU is positioned near the higher end of its 52-week range of $28.445 to $115.81, sitting approximately 90% above its yearly low. Given its proximity to the 52-week high and the significant recent appreciation, the stock appears potentially overbought in the near term, though its relatively modest maximum drawdown of -19.75% suggests contained downside risk during recent corrections.

Revenue & Profitability: AU demonstrates robust profitability with a net income ratio of 27.7% for Q3 2025, showing stable earnings power relative to its Q2 performance. The company maintains healthy gross and operating profit margins of approximately 49.3% and 42.4%, respectively, indicating strong cost control and operational effectiveness in converting revenue to profit.

Financial Health: The company exhibits a strong liquidity position with a current ratio of 2.58 and a conservative debt profile, reflected in a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.30. While specific cash flow figures from the quarterly statements are limited, the financial ratios indicate solid interest coverage of 12.7x, suggesting comfortable debt servicing capability.

Operational Efficiency: AU's operational efficiency is adequate, with a return on equity of 8.7% and an asset turnover of 0.16 for the quarter. The cash conversion cycle of 35 days demonstrates reasonable working capital management, though the relatively low asset turnover suggests there may be opportunities to improve the efficiency of its asset base.

Based on the available metrics, AU appears to be a stock in transition. Its high trailing PE ratio of 24.48 indicates a premium valuation relative to the broader market, suggesting it is priced for future growth. However, the significantly lower forward PE of 13.32, combined with a PEG ratio of 0, implies exceptionally strong earnings growth is expected, which could justify the current multiples if materialized. The elevated EV/EBITDA of 31.12 further supports a relatively expensive valuation based on cash flow.

A definitive peer comparison is unfortunately not possible due to the lack of available industry average data. Without the context of sector-specific benchmarks for PE, PB, or EV/EBITDA ratios, it is challenging to determine if AU's valuation multiples represent a premium or discount to its direct competitors. The analysis would be significantly strengthened by comparing these metrics against the averages for its specific industry.

Volatility Risk: AU exhibits below-average volatility risk, with a beta of 0.624 indicating it is approximately 38% less volatile than the broader market. However, the stock's one-year maximum drawdown of -19.75%, while not extreme, demonstrates a capacity for meaningful price declines during unfavorable market conditions.

Other Risks: The stock shows no significant liquidity or short-selling pressure risks, as evidenced by the absence of reported short interest. Nonetheless, investors should consider company-specific and commodity-based risks, such as fluctuations in gold prices or operational disruptions, as these are inherent to the mining sector.