BF.B

Based on the provided analysis, Brown-Forman (BF.B) presents a challenging investment case at this time.

Analysis Summary: From a technical perspective, the stock is in a pronounced downtrend and deeply oversold, which could attract contrarian buyers, but the lack of positive momentum is a significant concern. The fundamental picture is unclear due to missing financial data, preventing a confident assessment of the company's underlying health. While traditional valuation multiples like P/E appear reasonable, the extremely high PEG ratio suggests the stock is priced for aggressive future growth that may be difficult to achieve, adding valuation risk. The stock's high volatility, evidenced by its substantial drawdown, further compounds the uncertainty.

Recommendation: A buy recommendation is challenging to justify at this moment. The combination of strong negative price momentum, an incomplete fundamental picture, and valuation concerns based on growth expectations creates a high level of uncertainty. Investors should await more conclusive fundamental data, particularly the next earnings report, and a clear technical signal of a trend reversal before considering a position. Therefore, a Hold or Wait-and-See approach is more appropriate until the outlook improves.

*Note: This is not investment advice, for reference only.*

RockFlow Model Forecast: Three Scenarios for 2026

Based on the provided analysis, the 12-month outlook for Brown-Forman (BF.B) is one of high uncertainty and caution.

Key catalysts for a potential recovery would be a clear reversal in the stock's technical downtrend and a strong next earnings report that clarifies the murky fundamental picture and justifies its current valuation.

The primary risks are the continuation of the negative price momentum, disappointing financial results that validate the high PEG ratio's concerns, and the stock's inherent volatility potentially leading to further losses.

Given the significant uncertainties and the explicit lack of an analyst target price, providing a specific target price range is not feasible; the immediate focus should be on the stock stabilizing above key support levels rather than projecting upside. The recommendation remains to adopt a Hold or Wait-and-See approach.

Wall Street Consensus

Most Wall Street analysts are optimistic about BF.B's 12-month outlook, with consensus target around $27.20, indicating expected upside potential.

Overall, BF.B has investment potential but also faces challenges. Here are key factors to weigh before investing.

BF.B has demonstrated notably weak performance, trending downward significantly over both short and medium-term horizons.

Short-term performance has been particularly poor, with the stock declining 14.67% over one month and 3.76% over three months, substantially underperforming the market by over 7 percentage points during the latter period. This consistent negative momentum indicates significant selling pressure and a lack of positive catalysts.

The stock is currently trading near its 52-week low of $25.32, just 4.1% above that level and far from its $38.85 high. Positioned at approximately the 3rd percentile of its yearly range, BF.B appears deeply oversold from a technical perspective, having experienced a maximum drawdown of -33.22% over the past year.

Based on the limited information provided, a comprehensive fundamental analysis of BF.B cannot be conducted. The absence of both a recent quarterly report and standard financial ratios presents a significant obstacle to any meaningful assessment of the company's operational and financial standing.

In the absence of critical metrics such as debt-to-equity or free cash flow figures, an evaluation of the company's financial health and liquidity position is not feasible. Similarly, without data on revenue trends, profit margins, or return on equity, any commentary on profitability or operational efficiency would be speculative.

For an accurate analysis, access to audited financial statements, including the income statement, balance sheet, and cash flow statement, is essential. This foundational data is required to calculate the necessary ratios and perform a reliable fundamental review of the company.

Based on the provided metrics, Brown-Forman appears modestly valued based on traditional price multiples but shows signs of growth premium concerns. The trailing P/E of 14.61 and Price-to-Sales of 3.12 suggest a reasonable valuation relative to the broader market. However, the extremely high PEG ratio of 6.76, which substantially exceeds 1.0, indicates the market is pricing in significant growth expectations that may not be sustainable, creating potential valuation risk.

A comprehensive peer comparison cannot be conducted due to the absence of industry average data. This limitation prevents a contextual assessment of whether Brown-Forman's multiples (P/E of 14.61, P/B of 3.09, P/S of 3.12) represent a premium or discount to its beverage sector competitors. The analysis would benefit from benchmarking against specific industry peers to better gauge relative valuation.

Based on the provided data, the stock exhibits significant volatility risk, as evidenced by a substantial one-year maximum drawdown of -33.22%. This indicates the stock has experienced considerable price declines from its peaks within the past year. Notably, a Beta value is not available ('None'), which prevents a standard assessment of its volatility relative to the broader market.

The absence of reported short interest suggests that there is not a significant speculative bet against the stock's price in the near term. Concurrently, the lack of available Beta or other specific liquidity metrics ('None') makes it challenging to assess other market-based risks, such as trading liquidity or susceptibility to rapid price movements based on order flow.