Booking Holdings Inc.

Based on the provided analysis, here is a comprehensive assessment of whether BKNG is worth buying.

Technical Analysis: The stock is in a pronounced downtrend and is technically oversold after significant declines. While this indicates bearish momentum, the proximity to its 52-week low could present a potential entry point for investors who believe the negative sentiment is overdone. However, a clear technical catalyst for a rebound is not yet evident.

Fundamentals: BKNG’s core business remains exceptionally strong. It demonstrates robust revenue growth, industry-leading profitability with net margins above 30%, and excellent cash flow generation. The negative equity is a result of aggressive share buybacks, not operational weakness, and the company’s financial health is solid with healthy interest coverage.

Valuation: The valuation presents a compelling narrative. While the trailing P/E appears rich, the forward P/E of approximately 16 and an exceptionally low PEG ratio of 0.076 suggest the stock is significantly undervalued relative to its high growth expectations. This disconnect is the most persuasive argument for investment.

Risk: The primary risk is high volatility, as the stock tends to fall more sharply than the market. It remains susceptible to broader economic concerns impacting travel demand. However, the lack of high short interest indicates no overwhelming speculative fear about the company's survival.

**Recommendation**

Based on the analysis, a buy recommendation is supported. Booking Holdings' formidable fundamentals and a valuation that prices in strong future growth create a compelling opportunity. The current oversold technical condition, driven by market sentiment rather than a deterioration in its business model, offers a favorable risk-reward profile for long-term investors willing to tolerate near-term volatility.

*Note: This is not investment advice, for reference only.*

RockFlow Model Forecast: Three Scenarios for 2026

Based on Booking Holdings' (BKNG) formidable fundamentals and compelling valuation, the 12-month outlook is positive. The primary catalysts for a rebound are the stock's current oversold condition and its attractive forward P/E of ~16 paired with a remarkably low PEG ratio of 0.076, which suggests the market is undervaluing its high growth trajectory. The main risks remain high volatility and potential macroeconomic pressures that could dampen global travel demand, though the company's resilient business model provides a strong buffer. Given the absence of a specific analyst target, a reasonable 12-month price target would be in the range of $4,700 - $5,100, contingent on a reversal of the current negative market sentiment.

Wall Street Consensus

Most Wall Street analysts are optimistic about Booking Holdings Inc.'s 12-month outlook, with consensus target around $4007.45, indicating expected upside potential.

Overall, BKNG has investment potential but also faces challenges. Here are key factors to weigh before investing.

BKNG has demonstrated significant underperformance with substantial price declines across multiple timeframes amid elevated volatility. The stock remains in a pronounced downtrend, having experienced a maximum drawdown of nearly 29% over the past year.

Short-term performance has been weak, with the stock falling approximately 17% over both one and three months. This decline represents a significant underperformance relative to the broader market, as evidenced by its negative relative strength of -18.39%, and is consistent with its beta above 1, indicating higher volatility during the downtrend.

Currently trading at $4,254.63, BKNG sits near the lower end of its 52-week range, approximately 6% above its 52-week low. Given the steep recent declines and proximity to the annual low, the stock appears to be in an oversold condition rather than overbought.

Revenue & Profitability: Booking Holdings demonstrates strong revenue growth, with Q3 2025 revenue of $9.0 billion representing a significant sequential increase from Q2's $6.8 billion. Profitability metrics are robust, with Q3 showing a net profit margin of 30.5% and an operating margin of 38.7%, indicating substantial operating leverage as revenue scales.

Financial Health: The company maintains a solid liquidity position with a current ratio of 1.33 and strong cash coverage, though its debt ratios appear elevated due to negative equity from share repurchases. Interest coverage remains healthy at 11.6x, supported by strong operating cash flow generation of $4.66 per share in Q3.

Operational Efficiency: While ROE is negative due to the negative equity position, return on assets remains strong at 9.6%, indicating effective utilization of the asset base. The asset turnover of 0.31 reflects the capital-light business model, and high operating cash flow conversion at 95.5% of free cash flow demonstrates excellent cash generation efficiency.

Based on the available metrics, BKNG appears to present a mixed valuation picture. The trailing P/E ratio of 26.46 is elevated, suggesting a premium valuation. However, the significantly lower forward P/E of approximately 15.9 indicates strong anticipated earnings growth that materially improves the valuation outlook. The PEG ratio of 0.076 is exceptionally low, strongly signaling that the stock is undervalued when its earnings growth rate is factored in, despite the high EV/EBITDA of 44.75.

A direct peer comparison using industry averages is not feasible as the necessary benchmark data is unavailable. Therefore, the assessment relies solely on the company's intrinsic metrics. The combination of a high trailing valuation metric and a low forward-looking PEG ratio creates a compelling case for undervaluation based on growth expectations, though the high EV/EBITDA suggests the market is pricing in significant future cash flows.

Volatility Risk: BKNG exhibits elevated volatility risk, evidenced by its beta of 1.186, which indicates the stock is more volatile than the broader market. This is corroborated by a significant one-year maximum drawdown of -28.81%, highlighting its substantial susceptibility to sharp price declines during adverse market conditions.

Other Risks: The absence of a notable short interest suggests that bearish speculative pressure is currently limited. However, as a highly liquid large-cap stock, BKNG remains exposed to systematic market risks and sector-specific headwinds, such as economic cyclicality affecting travel demand.