Bristol-Myers Squibb
BMY
$67.01
+2.35%
Bristol-Myers Squibb Co. is a global biopharmaceutical company that discovers, develops, and markets innovative medicines for serious diseases, with a primary focus on oncology, immunology, and cardiovascular conditions. As a leader in immuno-oncology, the company leverages its deep expertise in areas like checkpoint inhibitors to maintain a competitive edge, with close to 70% of its sales derived from the U.S. market. The current investor narrative centers on the company's successful pivot from legacy products like Revlimid to a new growth portfolio, evidenced by a 12% jump in sales from newer drugs in Q1 2026, which drove a strong earnings beat and fueled a recent stock surge. Additionally, the company's robust pipeline and strategic focus on growth brands are drawing attention as it navigates patent expirations and competitive pressures in the pharmaceutical landscape.…
BMY
Bristol-Myers Squibb
$67.01
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Investment Opinion: Should I buy BMY Today?
Rating: Buy. Bristol-Myers Squibb offers a compelling risk/reward with a forward P/E of 9.7x, a dividend yield of 4.58%, and a consensus 'Buy' rating with an average target of $66.21. The company's successful pivot to growth brands, evidenced by a 12% jump in new drug sales in Q1 2026, supports earnings growth and justifies the valuation discount to peers.
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BMY 12-Month Price Forecast
The AI assessment leans bullish due to the company's successful pivot to growth brands, attractive valuation, and strong cash flow generation. However, confidence is medium given the modest overall revenue growth and competitive threats. The stock appears undervalued relative to its growth potential, and the forward P/E suggests the market expects earnings acceleration. Key developments to watch include the pace of growth brand adoption and any competitive setbacks. An upgrade to high confidence would require sustained double-digit growth in new products and stable margins.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Bristol-Myers Squibb's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $66.21 and implied upside of -1.2% versus the current price.
Average Target
$66.21
0 analysts
Implied Upside
-1.2%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$40 - $80
Analyst target range
Bristol-Myers Squibb is covered by 24 analysts, with a consensus recommendation of 'Buy' and a mean rating of 2.46 (where 1 is Strong Buy and 5 is Sell). The average price target is $66.21, implying a 3.73% upside from the current price of $63.83, while the low target of $40.00 suggests a 37.3% downside and the high target of $80.00 implies a 25.3% upside. The relatively narrow spread between the average and high targets indicates moderate conviction, but the wide range from low to high reflects uncertainty about the company's ability to sustain growth amid patent expirations and competitive pressures. Recent ratings from firms like B of A Securities (Buy) and Guggenheim (Buy) reinforce the bullish sentiment, while Cantor Fitzgerald and Citigroup maintain Neutral stances, highlighting a balanced but optimistic outlook.
Bulls vs Bears: BMY Investment Factors
Bristol-Myers Squibb presents a mixed picture: strong operational execution with a successful pivot to growth brands, robust free cash flow, and an attractive valuation, but offset by high leverage, modest revenue growth, and competitive pressures. The bull case is supported by the Q1 earnings beat and the potential for continued growth from new drugs, while the bear case highlights the risk of patent expirations and limited upside to analyst targets. Currently, the evidence slightly favors the bull case given the strong earnings momentum and undervaluation relative to peers, but the key tension lies in whether the growth portfolio can sustain double-digit growth to offset legacy declines and justify the current valuation.
Bullish
- Strong Q1 earnings beat: Q1 2026 revenue of $11.489B grew 2.57% YoY, with EPS of $1.31 beating estimates. Net income surged to $2.678B (23.3% net margin) from $2.456B a year ago, driven by a 12% jump in new growth portfolio sales.
- Growth brands offsetting Revlimid decline: Newer drugs like Breyanzi ($411M) and Camzyos ($314M) are growing rapidly, offsetting the decline in Revlimid ($349M). This pivot is crucial as Revlimid faces generic competition, and the growth portfolio is expected to drive future revenue.
- Attractive valuation with forward P/E of 9.7x: The forward P/E of 9.74x is significantly below the trailing P/E of 15.59x, implying expected earnings growth. The P/S ratio of 2.28x is below the industry average of 3.5x, suggesting the stock is undervalued relative to peers.
- Strong free cash flow and dividend yield: TTM free cash flow is $11.908B, supporting a dividend yield of 4.58% with a payout ratio of 71.5%. This provides a solid income component and financial flexibility for investments and debt reduction.
Bearish
- High debt-to-equity ratio of 2.55: The company's debt-to-equity ratio of 2.55x indicates significant leverage, which could strain cash flows if interest rates rise or earnings decline. This is a key financial risk, especially with ongoing patent expirations.
- Revenue growth remains modest at 2.57%: Q1 2026 revenue growth of 2.57% YoY is low compared to the industry, and the company relies heavily on new products to offset declines in legacy drugs. If growth brands fail to scale, revenue could stagnate.
- Competitive threats in key markets: Takeda's AI-developed psoriasis drug showed superior efficacy over BMY's treatment in a head-to-head trial, posing a competitive risk to its immunology franchise. This could pressure future sales and market share.
- Patent expirations and pricing pressure: Legacy drugs like Revlimid are facing generic competition, and the company must continuously innovate to replace lost revenue. Additionally, potential drug pricing reforms and tariffs could impact profitability.
BMY Technical Analysis
Bristol-Myers Squibb is currently in a strong uptrend, with the stock price at $63.83 as of August 14, 2026, reflecting a 33.51% increase over the past year. The stock is trading at approximately 93.7% of its 52-week range (between $42.52 low and $68.10 high), indicating it is near the upper end of its yearly range, which suggests strong momentum and investor confidence. This positioning near the highs often signals positive market sentiment, though it may also imply that the stock is approaching overbought conditions, warranting caution for potential pullbacks.
Beta
0.23
0.23x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-13.4%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$43-$69
Price range past year
Annual Return
+38.4%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | BMY Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +10.3% | +2.5% |
| 3m | +12.7% | +2.7% |
| 6m | +10.5% | +11.1% |
| 1y | +38.4% | +20.5% |
| ytd | +25.3% | +12.3% |
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BMY Fundamental Analysis
Bristol-Myers Squibb reported Q1 2026 revenue of $11.489 billion, a 2.57% year-over-year increase, with a net income of $2.678 billion, reflecting a net margin of 23.31%. The company's gross margin for the quarter was 70.22%, up from 65.53% in Q1 2025, indicating improved cost management and product mix. Revenue growth has been modest but consistent, with Q1 2026 marking the third consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth, driven by strong performance in growth brands like Breyanzi ($411 million) and Camzyos ($314 million), which are offsetting declines in legacy drugs like Revlimid ($349 million).
Quarterly Revenue
$11.5B
2026-03
Revenue YoY Growth
+2.6%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
70.2%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$11.9B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is BMY Overvalued?
Given that Bristol-Myers Squibb has positive net income, the trailing P/E ratio of 15.59x is the primary valuation metric, while the forward P/E of 9.74x suggests the market expects significant earnings growth, implying a 37.5% discount to trailing earnings. The company's P/S ratio of 2.28x is below the industry average of 3.5x, indicating a potential undervaluation relative to peers, but this is partially justified by its lower growth prospects compared to faster-growing biotech firms. Historically, the stock's P/E has ranged from 11.57x to 30.43x over the past five years, with the current trailing P/E near the lower end, suggesting the stock is trading at a discount to its historical average, which could indicate a value opportunity if the company's growth trajectory continues.
PE
15.6x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Low-End
5-Year PE Range 10x~36x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
9.7x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial risks include a high debt-to-equity ratio of 2.55x, which increases vulnerability to interest rate hikes and could constrain financial flexibility. The company's net margin improved to 23.3% in Q1 2026, but this was partly due to one-time gains; the trailing twelve-month net margin is only 14.6%, indicating earnings volatility. Additionally, the payout ratio of 71.5% leaves limited room for dividend increases if cash flows decline, and the company's reliance on a few growth products (Breyanzi, Camzyos) creates concentration risk.
FAQ
Key risks include: 1) Financial risk from high debt-to-equity of 2.55x, which could strain cash flows if interest rates rise. 2) Competitive risk from drugs like Takeda's zasocitinib showing superior efficacy, potentially eroding market share. 3) Regulatory and pricing risk from potential drug tariffs and pricing reforms, which could impact margins. 4) Execution risk in the pivot to growth brands; if new drugs fail to scale, revenue could stagnate. The most severe risk is a combination of these factors leading to a decline to the 52-week low of $42.52, a 33% downside from current levels.
The 12-month forecast is moderately bullish. The base case (50% probability) sees the stock trading around $66.21, the average analyst target, implying a 3.7% upside. The bull case (30% probability) could push the stock to $80, a 25% upside, if growth brands accelerate. The bear case (20% probability) could see the stock fall to $45, a 30% downside, if growth disappoints. The most likely scenario is the base case, driven by steady but modest growth and stable margins.
BMY appears undervalued based on its forward P/E of 9.74x, which is below the trailing P/E of 15.59x and the industry average P/S of 3.5x. The stock is trading at a discount to its historical average P/E range of 11.57x to 30.43x, suggesting the market is pricing in lower growth expectations. However, the low growth rate of 2.57% YoY justifies some discount. The valuation implies the market expects earnings growth, which is supported by the growth brand momentum. Overall, the stock is fairly valued to slightly undervalued relative to its growth prospects.
BMY is a good buy for investors seeking a combination of income and value, given its 4.58% dividend yield and forward P/E of 9.7x. The stock offers a 3.7% upside to the average analyst target of $66.21, but the low target of $40 highlights downside risk. The company's strong Q1 earnings beat and growth in new drugs support the bull case, but the high debt and modest revenue growth warrant caution. Overall, it is a suitable buy for long-term investors with a moderate risk tolerance, especially if they believe the growth portfolio will continue to offset legacy declines.
BMY is more suitable for long-term investment due to its low beta of 0.225, which indicates low volatility, and its stable dividend yield of 4.58%. The company's growth story, driven by new drug launches, is a multi-year process, making it less attractive for short-term trading. The stock has shown strong momentum recently, but short-term traders may find limited upside given the modest analyst targets. A minimum holding period of 3-5 years is recommended to fully capture the benefits of the growth portfolio and dividend compounding.