Popular, Inc.
BPOP
$169.07
+0.51%
Popular, Inc. is a financial holding company headquartered in Puerto Rico, operating primarily through its banking subsidiary Banco Popular de Puerto Rico, the largest bank on the island, along with a U.S. mainland operation, Popular Bank, and other financial services entities. As a dominant player in the Puerto Rican banking market, it holds a leading position in assets and deposits, distinguishing itself as a regional powerhouse with a significant presence in the U.S. mainland. The current investor narrative centers on the company's robust earnings growth, driven by a favorable interest rate environment and improving credit quality, while also focusing on its strategic initiatives to expand its U.S. footprint and enhance digital capabilities. Recent attention has been on the stock's strong performance, with a 42% gain over the past year, as investors weigh the sustainability of its growth amid economic recovery in Puerto Rico and potential shifts in the rate cycle.…
BPOP
Popular, Inc.
$169.07
BPOP 12-Month Price Forecast
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Popular, Inc.'s 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $197.30 and implied upside of +16.7% versus the current price.
Average Target
$197.30
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+16.7%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$181 - $214
Analyst target range
The target price range spans from a low of $181.00 to a high of $214.00, with the high target implying a 26.6% upside, reflecting expectations of continued strong performance and potential multiple expansion. The low target still represents a 7.1% upside, suggesting that even the most conservative analyst sees value in the stock. The relatively wide spread of $33 between low and high targets indicates moderate uncertainty, but the overall direction is clearly positive. Recent institutional ratings show no downgrades, with all actions being reaffirmations of Buy or Overweight, reinforcing the bullish consensus. This alignment among analysts suggests high conviction in Popular's growth story, driven by its strong market position and favorable economic conditions in Puerto Rico.
Bulls vs Bears: BPOP Investment Factors
Popular, Inc. presents a compelling bull case with strong earnings growth, attractive valuation, and robust analyst support. The bear case highlights the stock's proximity to its 52-week high, concentration risk, and interest rate sensitivity. Currently, the bull case has stronger evidence, given the PEG ratio of 0.23 and consistent revenue growth. The key tension is whether the market will continue to re-rate the stock upward or if a rate cut cycle will compress margins and limit upside. If growth persists and rates remain stable, the stock could reach analyst targets; however, any negative surprise could lead to a correction.
Bullish
- Strong Earnings Growth: EPS grew from $2.56 in Q1 2025 to $3.78 in Q1 2026, a 47.7% year-over-year increase. This robust growth is driven by higher net interest income and improved credit quality, indicating strong operational momentum.
- Undervalued on PEG Ratio: With a PEG ratio of 0.23, the stock trades at a significant discount to its earnings growth rate. This suggests the market is not fully pricing in the company's growth prospects, offering upside potential.
- Attractive Valuation: The trailing PE of 10.12x and forward PE of 9.76x are well below the broader market and regional bank averages. This low multiple provides a margin of safety and potential for multiple expansion.
- Strong Analyst Support: Analysts rate the stock a Strong Buy with an average target of $197.30, implying 16.7% upside from the current price of $169.07. The low target of $181 still offers 7.1% upside, reflecting broad bullish sentiment.
Bearish
- Trading Near 52-Week High: At $169.07, the stock is 94.3% of its 52-week range (high $179.24), leaving limited upside if sentiment shifts. The recent 1-month decline of -2.77% suggests some profit-taking after a strong run.
- High Valuation vs. History: The stock has risen 42% over the past year, and the current PE of 10.12x is above its historical average. This could lead to mean reversion if growth decelerates.
- Concentration Risk in Puerto Rico: Despite U.S. expansion, a significant portion of revenue comes from Puerto Rico, exposing the company to island-specific economic and regulatory risks. Any downturn in the local economy could impact earnings.
- Interest Rate Sensitivity: As a bank, BPOP's net interest margin is sensitive to rate changes. If the Fed cuts rates faster than expected, net interest income could compress, affecting profitability.
BPOP Technical Analysis
Popular's stock has been in a sustained uptrend over the past year, with a 1-year price change of +42.08%, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's +20.48% over the same period. The current price of $169.07 sits at 94.3% of its 52-week range (between $108.74 and $179.24), indicating the stock is trading near its highs, which suggests strong momentum but also potential overextension. This positioning near the top of the range reflects investor confidence in the company's fundamentals, yet it also implies that much of the positive news may already be priced in, leaving limited room for error.
Beta
0.62
0.62x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-14.7%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$109-$179
Price range past year
Annual Return
+42.1%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | BPOP Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | -2.8% | +3.6% |
| 3m | +12.3% | +2.7% |
| 6m | +14.6% | +11.4% |
| 1y | +42.1% | +18.7% |
| ytd | +34.2% | +12.3% |
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BPOP Fundamental Analysis
Revenue has shown consistent growth, with the most recent quarter (Q1 2026) reporting $1.11 billion, up 7.91% year-over-year, and the trailing twelve months showing a steady upward trajectory from $1.03 billion in Q1 2025 to $1.11 billion in Q1 2026. The growth is broad-based, with the Puerto Rico segment contributing $568 million and the U.S. segment $112 million in the latest quarter, indicating a diversified revenue stream. This acceleration in revenue growth, from 4.3% YoY in Q2 2025 to 7.9% in Q1 2026, suggests improving business momentum, likely driven by higher interest income and loan demand.
Quarterly Revenue
$1.1B
2026-03
Revenue YoY Growth
+7.9%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
75.1%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$715389000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is BPOP Overvalued?
Given that Popular is profitable with a trailing net income of $245.7 million, the PE ratio is the most appropriate valuation metric. The trailing PE stands at 10.12x, while the forward PE is 9.76x, indicating that the market expects modest earnings growth. The gap between trailing and forward PE is small, suggesting stable earnings expectations, which is consistent with the company's consistent profitability. The PEG ratio of 0.23x further supports the view that the stock is undervalued relative to its growth prospects, as it trades at a significant discount to its earnings growth rate.
PE
10.1x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
High-End
5-Year PE Range 5x~12x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
4.7x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial risks include moderate debt levels (debt-to-equity 0.25) and a low current ratio of 0.38, which is typical for banks but could signal liquidity stress in a downturn. The company's net margin of 18.8% is solid, but any deterioration in credit quality could impact earnings. Cash flow remains positive with FCF of $715 million, providing a buffer, but the payout ratio of 23.7% suggests room for dividend growth or buybacks.
Market risks include valuation compression if the stock's PE of 10.12x reverts to historical norms, especially if growth slows. The beta of 0.62 indicates lower volatility than the market, but the stock is still sensitive to interest rate changes and economic conditions in Puerto Rico. Regulatory changes in the region could also pose risks. The recent 1-month underperformance relative to the S&P 500 (relative strength -5.22%) suggests some near-term weakness.
In a worst-case scenario, a severe economic downturn in Puerto Rico, coupled with a faster-than-expected rate cut cycle, could lead to a 35% decline to the 52-week low of $108.74. This would represent a significant loss from the current price of $169.07. However, given the company's strong fundamentals and analyst support, this scenario is unlikely but possible.