Dutch Bros. Coffee
BROS
$48.86
-2.10%
Dutch Bros Inc. operates and franchises drive-thru coffee shops, serving hand-crafted beverages including espresso-based drinks, cold brew, energy drinks, and smoothies. As a rapidly expanding player in the quick-service restaurant industry, Dutch Bros differentiates itself through its energetic brand culture and a strong focus on drive-thru convenience, positioning it as a growth-oriented challenger to established coffee giants. The current investor narrative centers on the company's robust revenue growth and expansion strategy, contrasted with a significant stock price decline in 2026, driven by concerns over increased capital spending, a strategic acquisition, and a slight slowdown in same-store sales. Recent headlines debate whether the sell-off is an overreaction to temporary headwinds or a justified de-rating of a high-multiple growth stock.…
BROS
Dutch Bros. Coffee
$48.86
Related headlines
BROS 12-Month Price Forecast
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Dutch Bros. Coffee's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $77.76 and implied upside of +59.1% versus the current price.
Average Target
$77.76
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+59.1%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$29 - $95
Analyst target range
Dutch Bros is covered by 25 analysts, with a consensus recommendation of 'Strong Buy' and a mean recommendation score of 1.38 (where 1 is Strong Buy and 5 is Sell). The average target price is $77.76, implying a substantial upside of 55.8% from the current price of $49.91. The distribution of ratings is heavily skewed towards buy, with recent actions from firms like Oppenheimer (Outperform), DA Davidson (Buy), and TD Cowen (Buy) reaffirming positive sentiment. The target price range is wide, from a low of $29.00 to a high of $95.00, indicating significant uncertainty about the stock's future. The high target of $95 assumes that the company can sustain its growth trajectory and expand margins, while the low target of $29 suggests concerns about competitive pressures or execution risks. The wide spread reflects the high volatility and growth expectations inherent in the stock, and the strong buy consensus suggests that analysts view the recent sell-off as an overreaction, but the wide range highlights the risk involved.
Bulls vs Bears: BROS Investment Factors
Dutch Bros presents a classic growth-versus-valuation debate. The bull case is anchored by exceptional revenue growth (30.76% YoY), strong analyst support (55.8% upside), and improving profitability. The bear case highlights extreme valuation multiples (95.66x trailing PE), margin compression, and high volatility. Currently, the evidence slightly favors the bulls because the growth rate and analyst consensus suggest the sell-off is overdone, but the high multiples and execution risks make it a high-risk, high-reward proposition. The key tension is whether the company can sustain its growth and expand margins to justify its premium valuation, or if the recent slowdown in same-store sales signals a maturation that warrants a lower multiple.
Bullish
- Robust Revenue Growth: Q1 2026 revenue grew 30.76% YoY to $464.4M, accelerating from 24.8% in Q1 2025. This consistent double-digit growth demonstrates strong demand and successful expansion.
- Strong Analyst Consensus: 25 analysts rate BROS a Strong Buy with a mean score of 1.38. The average price target of $77.76 implies 55.8% upside from the current $49.91, indicating analysts view the sell-off as overdone.
- Improving Profitability: Net margin improved from 1.05% in Q4 2024 to 3.47% in Q1 2026, with EPS rising from $0.03 to $0.13. The company is consistently profitable, supporting its growth investments.
- Reasonable PEG Ratio: With a PEG ratio of 0.90, the stock is trading below 1, suggesting it is undervalued relative to its earnings growth rate. This is attractive for a high-growth company.
Bearish
- High Valuation Multiples: Trailing PE is 95.66x and EV/EBITDA is 40.37x, well above industry averages. Even with strong growth, these multiples leave little room for error and are vulnerable to de-rating.
- Margin Compression: Gross margin fell from 28.87% in Q2 2025 to 22.83% in Q1 2026, a 604 bps decline. Rising costs and increased capital spending are pressuring profitability.
- High Volatility and Beta: Beta of 2.329 means the stock is 2.3x more volatile than the market. This amplifies downside risk, as seen in the -32.77% one-year return versus S&P 500's +18.56%.
- Recent Sell-Off Momentum: The stock dropped 22.75% in the last month and is down 19.71% YTD, trading near its 52-week low. Negative momentum and technical weakness could persist.
BROS Technical Analysis
Dutch Bros' stock is in a clear downtrend over the past year, with a 1-year price change of -32.77%, while the S&P 500 gained 18.56% over the same period. The current price of $49.91 sits at approximately 67% of its 52-week range (low $44.58, high $74.225), indicating the stock is trading near the lower end of its range, closer to the 52-week low than the high. This positioning suggests a bearish sentiment, with the stock having lost significant ground from its highs, potentially presenting a value opportunity or a falling knife depending on fundamental support. The stock's beta of 2.329 indicates it is significantly more volatile than the market, amplifying both upside and downside moves.
Beta
2.33
2.33x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-37.1%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$45-$74
Price range past year
Annual Return
-32.0%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | BROS Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | -25.8% | +2.7% |
| 3m | -15.6% | +1.0% |
| 6m | -7.3% | +12.0% |
| 1y | -32.0% | +18.9% |
| ytd | -21.4% | +12.5% |
Bobby - Your AI Investment Partner
Get real-time data, AI-driven personalized investment analysis to make smarter investment decisions
BROS Fundamental Analysis
Dutch Bros has demonstrated robust revenue growth, with the most recent quarter (Q1 2026) reporting revenue of $464.4 million, a 30.76% year-over-year increase. This growth is consistent with the prior quarters: Q4 2025 revenue was $443.6 million, Q3 2025 was $423.6 million, and Q2 2025 was $415.8 million, showing a steady upward trajectory. The growth is driven primarily by company-operated shops, with franchise fees contributing $33.96 million in the latest quarter. The company's net income for Q1 2026 was $16.1 million, with a net margin of 3.47%, which is lower than the 4.82% in Q4 2025 but an improvement from the 1.05% in Q4 2024. Gross margin in Q1 2026 was 22.83%, down from 24.15% in Q4 2025 and 28.87% in Q2 2025, indicating some margin compression. The company is profitable, with a positive EPS of $0.13 in Q1 2026, and has shown consistent profitability over the past year, though margins are relatively thin for a restaurant chain.
Quarterly Revenue
$464412000.0B
2026-03
Revenue YoY Growth
+30.8%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
22.8%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$90802000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
Open an Account, get $2 TSLA now!
Valuation Analysis: Is BROS Overvalued?
Given that Dutch Bros has positive net income, the PE ratio is the primary valuation metric. The trailing PE is 95.66x, while the forward PE is 37.96x, indicating the market expects significant earnings growth. The gap between trailing and forward PE suggests that the market is pricing in a substantial improvement in earnings, which is consistent with the company's revenue growth trajectory. Compared to the industry average, Dutch Bros trades at a premium: the PS ratio of 4.68x is higher than the sector average, and the EV/EBITDA of 40.37x is elevated. This premium is justified by the company's superior growth rate, but it also leaves little room for error. Historically, the stock's PE ratio has ranged from negative (during loss-making periods) to over 400x, with the current trailing PE of 95.66x being lower than the 118.73x seen in Q1 2025, indicating a de-rating. The PEG ratio of 0.90 suggests that the stock is reasonably valued relative to its growth rate, but the high absolute multiples still imply optimistic expectations.
PE
95.7x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Mid-Range
5-Year PE Range 37x~142x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
40.4x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial risks are significant. The company carries a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.60, indicating substantial leverage, which could become problematic if interest rates rise or cash flow falters. Gross margin has compressed from 28.87% in Q2 2025 to 22.83% in Q1 2026, reflecting rising input costs and increased capital spending. While the company is profitable with a net margin of 3.47%, this is thin for a restaurant chain, leaving little buffer against operational hiccups. Free cash flow is positive at $90.8M TTM, but the high capital expenditure required for expansion could strain liquidity if growth slows.