Blackstone Inc.

Based on a comprehensive analysis, Blackstone (BX) presents a compelling opportunity for risk-tolerant investors with a long-term horizon.

Technical Perspective: The stock is in a clear downtrend and technically oversold, having fallen significantly from its highs. While this indicates near-term weakness, it also creates a potential entry point for investors betting on a recovery.

Fundamental Strength: Blackstone's operational performance remains robust. The company demonstrates strong revenue growth, impressive profit margins exceeding 54%, and a healthy financial position with manageable debt and solid interest coverage.

Valuation & Risk: The valuation is forward-looking, with a high P/E ratio that is partly justified by a very low PEG ratio, suggesting growth may be underpriced. The primary concern is high volatility, underscored by a beta of 1.76, meaning the stock will likely amplify broader market movements.

Recommendation: For investors comfortable with significant volatility, BX appears to be a BUY. The current oversold technical condition, coupled with strong underlying fundamentals and reasonable growth-adjusted valuation, presents a favorable risk-reward scenario for a long-term position. However, investors should be prepared for potential short-term price swings.

*Note: This is not investment advice, for reference only.*

RockFlow Model Forecast: Three Scenarios for 2026

Based on a comprehensive analysis, here is a 12-month outlook for Blackstone (BX):

12-Month Outlook for BX

Over the next 12 months, Blackstone's performance is expected to be heavily influenced by the macroeconomic environment, particularly interest rate trends. Key catalysts include potential Federal Reserve rate cuts, which could revitalize deal-making and capital markets activity across its private equity and real estate portfolios, driving performance fees and fund-raising. The company's robust fundamental strength, with high margins and strong fee-related earnings, provides a solid foundation for recovery.

The primary potential risks remain the stock's high volatility (beta of 1.76) and prolonged high interest rates, which could continue to suppress asset valuations and transaction volumes, weighing on near-term results. While analyst targets are not specified herein, a reasonable target price range could be projected toward the $150-$165 area, reflecting a re-rating as market sentiment improves and its growth prospects materialize, contingent on a stabilizing economic backdrop.

Wall Street Consensus

Most Wall Street analysts are optimistic about Blackstone Inc.'s 12-month outlook, with consensus target around $125.76, indicating expected upside potential.

Overall, BX has investment potential but also faces challenges. Here are key factors to weigh before investing.

BX has demonstrated significant volatility and weakness over the past year, with a current downtrend in place across short-term periods.

Over the past one and three months, BX has declined substantially, falling 18.73% and 7.96% respectively. The stock has significantly underperformed the broader market by over 8% during this period, with its high beta of 1.76 indicating it has been considerably more volatile than the market average.

Currently trading at $132.87, BX sits approximately 30% below its 52-week high and just 15% above its 52-week low. Given the stock's substantial maximum drawdown of nearly 33% over the past year and its recent sharp decline, it appears to be in an oversold condition relative to its yearly range.

Revenue & Profitability Blackstone demonstrated strong revenue momentum with Q4 2025 revenue reaching $4.36 billion, a significant increase from Q3's $2.81 billion, indicating robust growth. Profitability metrics remain solid with a gross profit ratio of 64.5% and net income margin of 23.3%, though the net margin reflects substantial income tax expenses. The effective tax rate of 16.2% appears reasonable given the company's global operations and structure.

Financial Health Blackstone maintains moderate leverage with a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.63 and total debt to capitalization of 62%, suggesting manageable debt levels. The company's interest coverage ratio of 18.5x indicates strong ability to service debt obligations, while a cash ratio of 0.23 shows adequate liquidity coverage despite the nature of its asset management business model.

Operational Efficiency The company generates solid returns with an ROE of 11.7%, though this is supported by a high equity multiplier of 5.5x. Asset turnover of 0.09 reflects the capital-intensive nature of alternative asset management, where large AUM drives revenue generation rather than traditional asset utilization. Operating profit margins exceeding 54% demonstrate effective cost management relative to revenue scale.

Valuation Level: With a TTM PE of 20.5 and a higher forward PE of approximately 29.6, the stock appears to be pricing in significant future earnings growth. The notably high EV/EBITDA of 82.6 suggests the market is valuing the company's cash flow generation at a substantial premium. However, the PEG ratio of 0.47, being well below 1.0, indicates that the current valuation may be justified when considering the projected earnings growth rate.

Peer Comparison: A direct peer comparison is not feasible as industry average data is unavailable for this analysis. Therefore, it is impossible to contextualize these valuation metrics against the company's specific competitors or the broader sector. The analysis would be significantly strengthened with relevant industry benchmarks to determine relative valuation.

Volatility risk is notably significant, as reflected by both the elevated Beta of 1.761, indicating the stock is approximately 76% more volatile than the broader market, and the substantial one-year maximum drawdown of -32.78%. This combination suggests investors face considerable price swings, with the potential for steep losses during market downturns. Such characteristics demand a higher risk tolerance from shareholders.

Regarding other risks, the absence of any reported short interest implies that professional traders do not currently perceive a compelling bearish case or immediate downside catalyst. The primary remaining risks are likely tied to liquidity and broader market sentiment, though the lack of short-selling pressure is a moderately positive signal for near-term price stability.