CACI
CACI
$610.65
+1.88%
CACI International Inc. is a provider of differentiated technology and distinctive expertise to U.S. federal government customers in the intelligence, defense, and federal civilian sectors, operating through two segments: Domestic Operations, which generates the majority of revenue, and International Operations. The company occupies a specialized niche as a national-security-focused IT services and solutions provider, competing for high-clearance, mission-critical contracts that create meaningful barriers to entry and sticky, long-duration customer relationships. The current investor narrative centers on a sharp post-earnings re-rating: shares gapped up dramatically in early August 2026, with the stock rallying from roughly $518 to over $680 within a week, reflecting a major contract award or backlog catalyst that reset growth expectations. Debate now focuses on whether this step-change in the business is durable — analysts remain constructive with a consensus buy rating, but the wide dispersion in price targets and the stock's recent pullback from its highs suggest the market is still digesting the sustainability of the new earnings trajectory.…
CACI
CACI
$610.65
Investment Opinion: Should I buy CACI Today?
CACI presents a compelling investment case with a consensus buy rating (mean 1.625) and an average price target of $730.29, implying 19.6% upside from the current $610.65. The core thesis is that the company has secured a major contract catalyst that could drive a step-change in growth, supported by improving margins and strong free cash flow. While the stock has rallied significantly, it remains reasonably valued relative to its history and peers.
The supporting evidence is robust: revenue grew 8.49% year-over-year in Q3 FY2026, operating margin expanded to 9.74% from 9.06%, and trailing free cash flow of $625.7 million provides a 6.1% yield. The forward PE of 16.23x is below the historical average, and the PEG ratio of 2.37, while not cheap, is acceptable for a company with defensive characteristics and a low beta of 0.591. Analyst estimates project EPS of $41.52, which would represent significant growth from the current run-rate.
Key risks include elevated leverage (debt-to-equity of 1.207), integration risk from recent acquisitions, and the potential for government spending cuts. The rating would upgrade to a strong buy if the company demonstrates sustained double-digit revenue growth and reduces leverage, or downgrade to hold if organic growth stalls below 5% or if margins contract. Relative to its historical PE band of 16.6x–23.7x, the stock appears fairly valued to slightly undervalued, offering a balanced risk/reward for long-term investors.
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CACI 12-Month Price Forecast
CACI presents a favorable risk/reward profile, with the bull case supported by strong analyst sentiment, reasonable valuation, and improving profitability. The August catalyst has reset growth expectations, and the company's low beta and essential government services provide downside protection. However, high leverage and integration risk warrant a medium confidence rating. An upgrade to high confidence would require evidence of sustained double-digit growth and debt reduction; a downgrade would occur if organic growth falls below 5% or if margins contract significantly.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on CACI's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $730.29 and implied upside of +19.6% versus the current price.
Average Target
$730.29
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+19.6%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$540 - $892
Analyst target range
CACI is covered by 14 analysts, with a consensus recommendation of "buy" and a recommendation mean of 1.625 (where 1.0 is a strong buy and 5.0 is a strong sell), indicating a solidly bullish but not unanimous stance. The average price target of $730.29 implies approximately 19.6% upside from the current price of $610.65, a substantial expected return that suggests analysts see meaningful value despite the recent rally. The consensus EPS estimate of $41.52 for the forward period, against a low estimate of $34.47 and a high of $48.32, reflects a wide range of outcomes — a spread of nearly 40% between the most bullish and bearish earnings forecasts. Estimated revenue averages $12.14 billion, with a range of $11.66 billion to $12.53 billion, implying analysts expect roughly 5-8% top-line growth, consistent with the company's recent trajectory.
The target price range is exceptionally wide, spanning from a low of $540.00 to a high of $892.00 — a spread of $352, or 65% of the current price. The high target of $892 implies roughly 46% upside and likely assumes successful integration of the recent acquisition, multiple expansion toward the upper end of the historical PE band, and acceleration in contract awards following the August catalyst. The low target of $540 implies approximately 11.6% downside and likely prices in margin compression from integration costs, slower-than-expected organic growth, or a broader government spending slowdown. Institutional ratings show a stable pattern with no recent upgrades or downgrades: TD Cowen maintains Buy, JP Morgan maintains Overweight, while Citigroup and Jefferies remain Neutral/Hold, indicating that the bullish case is not universally embraced. The wide target spread signals high uncertainty about the company's trajectory, which is consistent with a stock that has just experienced a major catalyst and is now in a consolidation phase as the market awaits confirmation of the new earnings run-rate.
Bulls vs Bears: CACI Investment Factors
The bull case for CACI rests on a powerful post-earnings re-rating driven by a major contract catalyst, with analysts projecting 19.6% upside to their average target and the stock trading at a reasonable 19.1x trailing earnings. Improving margins, strong free cash flow, and a low beta add to the appeal. However, the bear case highlights elevated leverage from aggressive M&A, a wide dispersion in analyst targets, and recent momentum stagnation. The single most important tension is whether the August catalyst represents a durable step-change in growth or a one-time event; if the company can sustain double-digit earnings growth, the stock likely re-rates higher, but if growth reverts to mid-single digits, the current valuation may prove full. On balance, the bull evidence currently has the edge, supported by analyst consensus and cash flow strength, but the risk of integration missteps and high leverage warrants caution.
Bullish
- Strong post-earnings momentum: CACI surged from $518 on August 5 to $680 by August 12, a 31% gain in five trading days, driven by a major contract award or backlog catalyst. The stock has consolidated above $600, holding the bulk of those gains, which suggests the market views the catalyst as durable rather than a one-time event.
- Analyst upside remains substantial: The consensus average price target of $730.29 implies 19.6% upside from the current $610.65, with 14 analysts maintaining a buy rating (mean 1.625). The high target of $892 suggests 46% upside if the bull case materializes, indicating that sell-side analysts see significant value even after the rally.
- Improving profitability and cash flow: Operating margin expanded to 9.74% in Q3 FY2026 from 9.06% a year earlier, while EBITDA margin rose to 12.24% from 11.60%. Trailing twelve-month free cash flow of $625.7 million yields a healthy 6.1% FCF yield on the $10.2 billion market cap, supporting the investment case.
- Reasonable valuation vs. history: The trailing PE of 19.08x sits near the lower end of its historical 16.6x–23.7x band, and the forward PE of 16.23x is below the historical average. This suggests the stock is not expensive relative to its own earnings history, leaving room for multiple expansion if growth accelerates.
Bearish
- Elevated leverage from acquisitions: Debt-to-equity stands at 1.207 and total debt to capitalization at 56.75%, following $2.64 billion of acquisitions in Q3 FY2026. Interest expense of $52.3 million per quarter consumes a meaningful portion of operating income, and the interest coverage ratio of 4.38x, while adequate, leaves less room for error if earnings decline.
- Wide analyst target dispersion: Price targets range from $540 to $892, a spread of 65% of the current price, reflecting high uncertainty about the company's trajectory. The low target implies 11.6% downside, and the 40% spread between low and high EPS estimates ($34.47 to $48.32) underscores the lack of consensus on earnings power.
- Recent consolidation and relative underperformance: The stock is up only 0.63% over the past month and has lagged SPY by 1.49 percentage points, indicating that momentum has stalled since the August surge. The 52-week high of $683.50 remains resistance, and a failure to break above it could lead to further consolidation or a retest of support.
- Integration and execution risk: The company spent $2.64 billion on acquisitions in Q3 FY2026, funded partly by debt, and cash declined to $158.0 million from $423.0 million at the start of the period. If the acquired assets fail to generate expected returns or if integration costs pressure margins, the earnings growth implied by the forward PE of 16.23x could disappoint.
CACI Technical Analysis
CACI is in a powerful, sustained uptrend, with the current price of $610.65 representing a 19.43% gain over the past year and a 13.63% advance year-to-date. The stock is trading at approximately 70.8% of its 52-week range, calculated as ($610.65 - $434.70) / ($683.50 - $434.70), placing it in the upper portion of its annual band but still roughly 10.7% below the 52-week high of $683.50. This positioning signals a stock with strong momentum that has recently ceded some ground — not overextended at the highs, but clearly in the upper half of its range where buyers have historically been rewarded. The 52-week low of $434.70, set during the June 2026 selloff, now stands as a distant floor some 28.8% below current levels.
Short-term momentum is positive but decelerating relative to the explosive mid-year move: the stock is up 0.63% over the past month and 25.53% over the past three months, a striking divergence that reveals the bulk of the rally occurred in a single August surge. The 1-month change of just 0.63% versus the 3-month gain of 25.53% indicates the stock has been consolidating sideways since its August peak, digesting the sharp advance rather than extending it. Relative strength versus the S&P 500 tells a nuanced story: CACI has outperformed SPY by a massive 22.40 percentage points over three months, but has lagged by 1.49 points over the past month and 0.54 points year-to-date, suggesting the recent consolidation phase is a period of underperformance within a broader leadership trend. The beta of 0.591 indicates the stock is roughly 41% less volatile than the broader market, which is atypical for a momentum name and implies the recent moves are driven by company-specific catalysts rather than market beta.
Key technical levels are well-defined: resistance sits at the 52-week high of $683.50, and a breakout above that level would confirm the August catalyst as the start of a new leg higher, likely drawing momentum buyers. Support is anchored at the 52-week low of $434.70, though a more immediate support zone exists around the $580-$600 area where the stock has recently found buyers after pulling back from $683.50. The maximum drawdown of -33.44% over the past year underscores that despite the strong annual return, this stock has experienced a severe correction within the period, a reminder that the low beta of 0.591 has not insulated shareholders from sharp drawdowns. A breakdown below $580 would signal that the August gap is being retraced, while a sustained break below $540 — the low end of analyst targets — would call the entire bullish thesis into question.
Beta
0.59
0.59x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-33.4%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$435-$684
Price range past year
Annual Return
+19.4%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | CACI Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +0.6% | +1.9% |
| 3m | +25.5% | +3.9% |
| 6m | +14.2% | +12.1% |
| 1y | +19.4% | +19.2% |
| ytd | +13.6% | +14.2% |
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CACI Fundamental Analysis
CACI's revenue trajectory is one of steady, mid-single-digit growth that has recently shown signs of acceleration. The most recent quarter (Q3 FY2026, ended March 31, 2026) delivered revenue of $2.351 billion, representing 8.49% year-over-year growth versus the $2.167 billion reported in the year-ago quarter. The multi-quarter trend shows consistent sequential expansion: revenue rose from $2.230 billion in Q2 FY2026 to $2.351 billion in Q3 FY2026, and from $2.288 billion in Q1 FY2026, indicating a business that is grinding higher with each passing quarter. Segment data shows Technology Services contributing $1.327 billion and Service/Other contributing $1.024 billion, with the technology-oriented portion representing roughly 56% of the total, a mix that supports higher-margin, differentiated work. The 8.49% growth rate is respectable for a government IT services provider, but the August stock surge suggests the market is pricing in a step-change — likely a large contract award — that could push growth into double digits in coming quarters.
Profitability is solid and improving, with net income of $130.4 million in the most recent quarter on a net margin of 5.55%, up from $111.9 million and a 5.16% net margin in the year-ago quarter. Gross margin stands at 31.44% in Q3 FY2026, a dramatic improvement from the 9.06% reported in the year-ago quarter, though this comparison is distorted by a reporting reclassification in the prior-year period where cost of revenue absorbed selling and marketing expenses. More reliably, operating margin has expanded to 9.74% from 9.06% year-over-year, and EBITDA margin has improved to 12.24% from 11.60%, indicating genuine operating leverage. The company's ROE of 12.01% and ROA of 5.76% are healthy for the IT services industry, where returns on capital are typically moderate given the asset-light but people-heavy nature of the business. The trailing twelve-month free cash flow of $625.7 million against a market cap of $10.2 billion implies a free cash flow yield of approximately 6.1%, a strong cash generation profile that supports the investment case.
CACI's balance sheet carries meaningful leverage following acquisition activity, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.207 and total debt to capitalization of 56.75% as of the most recent quarter. The company deployed $2.64 billion on acquisitions in Q3 FY2026 alone, funded partly by $2.24 billion in debt repayment activity, which explains the elevated leverage and the $52.3 million quarterly interest expense. Liquidity is adequate but not abundant, with a current ratio of 1.48 and cash of $158.0 million at quarter-end, down from $423.0 million at the start of the period due to the acquisition outlay. Operating cash flow of $183.2 million in the quarter covered capital expenditures of $26.8 million comfortably, yielding free cash flow of $156.4 million, but the company is clearly reliant on external financing to fund its M&A strategy — a risk if credit conditions tighten or if the acquired assets fail to generate expected returns. The interest coverage ratio of 4.38x provides a reasonable cushion, but the combination of high leverage and aggressive acquisition spending warrants monitoring.
Quarterly Revenue
$2.4B
2026-03
Revenue YoY Growth
+8.5%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
31.4%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$625689000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is CACI Overvalued?
Because CACI is profitable with positive net income of $130.4 million in the most recent quarter and trailing EPS of $0.052 (reflecting a data anomaly likely tied to a stock split or reporting adjustment), the PE ratio is the appropriate primary metric. The trailing PE of 19.08x compares to a forward PE of 16.23x, implying the market expects earnings growth of approximately 17.6% over the next twelve months — a meaningful but not extraordinary growth expectation that is consistent with the company's recent mid-single-digit revenue growth and margin expansion trajectory. The gap between trailing and forward PE suggests the market is pricing in continued earnings accretion, likely from the recent acquisition and the August contract catalyst, but is not embedding heroic assumptions.
Relative to the broader Technology sector and the Information Technology Services industry, CACI trades at a discount on most metrics. The PS ratio of 1.07x is remarkably low for a technology company, though this reflects the low-margin, services-heavy nature of the business; the EV/EBITDA of 13.22x is moderate for the sector, and the PEG ratio of 2.37 suggests the stock is not cheap relative to its growth rate. The PB ratio of 2.29x is reasonable for a company with a 12.01% ROE. Without explicit industry average data in the provided inputs, the most instructive comparison is CACI's own historical valuation band: the current PE of 19.08x sits in the middle of its historical range, which has spanned from roughly 16.6x to 23.7x over the past several years, suggesting the stock is neither richly valued nor deeply discounted on an earnings basis.
Historical context is critical here: CACI's PS ratio of 1.07x is dramatically below its historical range of 3.77x to 5.47x over the past several years, a discrepancy that likely reflects either a data artifact (possibly a stock split adjustment) or a genuine de-rating that would make the stock extraordinarily cheap on a sales basis. The PE ratio, however, tells a more reliable story: at 19.08x trailing, the stock is near the lower end of its 16.6x-23.7x historical band, suggesting that despite the August rally, valuation has not become stretched relative to the company's own history. The forward PE of 16.23x is below the historical average, implying that if the company delivers on earnings expectations, the stock could re-rate higher. The key risk is that the recent acquisition and elevated leverage could pressure earnings if integration disappoints, which would make the current multiple look less attractive in hindsight.
PE
19.1x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Mid-Range
5-Year PE Range 17x~24x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
13.2x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
CACI's financial risk profile is dominated by its elevated leverage following a $2.64 billion acquisition spree in Q3 FY2026. The debt-to-equity ratio of 1.207 and total debt to capitalization of 56.75% are high for an IT services firm, and quarterly interest expense of $52.3 million consumes a significant portion of operating income. With cash falling to $158.0 million from $423.0 million, the company has limited liquidity buffer, and its interest coverage ratio of 4.38x, while investment-grade, could compress if EBITDA declines. Additionally, the trailing EPS of $0.052 is anomalously low, likely due to a stock split or reporting adjustment, which distorts valuation metrics and could signal underlying earnings volatility.
Market and competitive risks include the potential for valuation compression if the stock's growth trajectory disappoints. At a trailing PE of 19.08x and forward PE of 16.23x, CACI trades at a discount to the broader technology sector but at a premium to some government services peers. The wide analyst target range ($540–$892) and EPS estimate spread ($34.47–$48.32) indicate significant uncertainty, and any negative news on contract awards or government budgets could trigger a sharp re-rating. The beta of 0.591 suggests lower market correlation, but the stock's 33.44% maximum drawdown over the past year shows it is not immune to severe corrections. Regulatory headwinds, such as changes in federal spending priorities or procurement delays, pose additional threats.
In a worst-case scenario, a combination of integration missteps, slower organic growth, and a government spending slowdown could drive the stock down to its 52-week low of $434.70, representing a 28.8% decline from the current $610.65. The analyst low target of $540 implies a more moderate 11.6% downside, but if the August catalyst proves to be a one-time event and earnings fail to accelerate, the stock could retest the June 2026 lows around $440. Investors could lose 28–29% in this adverse scenario, and the high leverage would amplify the impact of any earnings miss.
FAQ
The most severe risk is financial: high leverage with a debt-to-equity of 1.207 and total debt to capitalization of 56.75%, which could strain the balance sheet if earnings decline. Second, integration risk from $2.64 billion in recent acquisitions could lead to margin compression or goodwill impairments. Third, competitive and regulatory risks include dependence on U.S. government contracts, which are subject to budget cycles and political uncertainty. Fourth, market risk: despite a low beta of 0.591, the stock has experienced a 33.44% maximum drawdown in the past year, showing it can be volatile. These risks are ranked from highest to lowest severity, with financial and integration risks being the most immediate.
The 12-month forecast is bullish, with a base case probability of 50% targeting $700–$760, a bull case of 30% targeting $800–$892, and a bear case of 20% targeting $500–$540. The base case assumes revenue growth of 6–8% and EPS near $41.52, leading to a stock price around the analyst average of $730. The bull case requires successful integration and accelerated contract awards, while the bear case involves integration missteps and government spending cuts. The most likely scenario is the base case, driven by steady execution and the durability of the August catalyst. Key assumptions include stable margins and no major contract losses.
CACI appears fairly valued to slightly undervalued. The trailing PE of 19.08x is near the lower end of its historical range of 16.6x–23.7x, and the forward PE of 16.23x is below the historical average. The PS ratio of 1.07x is low for a technology company, though this reflects its services-heavy business model. Compared to peers, CACI trades at a discount on most metrics, but the PEG ratio of 2.37 suggests it is not cheap relative to its growth rate. The market is pricing in earnings growth of about 17.6% over the next year, which seems achievable given the recent contract catalyst. If growth accelerates, the stock could re-rate higher; if not, it may remain range-bound.
CACI appears to be a good buy for investors with a medium risk tolerance, given the 19.6% upside to the analyst average target of $730.29 and a consensus buy rating. The stock trades at a reasonable forward PE of 16.23x, below its historical average, and offers a 6.1% free cash flow yield. However, the high debt-to-equity of 1.207 and integration risks from recent acquisitions are concerns. The biggest downside risk is a retest of the 52-week low of $434.70, representing 28.8% downside. Overall, it is a good buy for long-term investors who believe in the durability of the August contract catalyst and the company's ability to deleverage.
CACI is best suited for long-term investment, given its stable government customer base, low beta of 0.591, and consistent free cash flow generation. The company does not pay a dividend, so returns depend on capital appreciation, which may take time to materialize as acquisitions are integrated and debt is reduced. Short-term trading is less attractive due to the stock's recent consolidation and wide analyst target dispersion. A minimum holding period of 2–3 years is recommended to allow the growth catalyst to play out and for leverage to decrease. The stock's low volatility makes it a good candidate for buy-and-hold investors seeking exposure to defense and intelligence spending.

