Maplebear Inc.

Based on the provided data, CART presents a high-risk, speculative opportunity. The stock is technically oversold after a severe decline, which could attract bargain hunters, but the negative momentum and underperformance are significant red flags.

Fundamentally, the company shows a worrying divergence: solid revenue growth is being undermined by a sharp contraction in profitability, indicating potential cost control issues. The valuation is particularly concerning, as the high forward P/E and negative PEG ratio signal that analysts expect earnings to deteriorate substantially.

The combination of technical weakness, declining profitability, and a poor earnings outlook creates a compelling case for caution. The lack of peer comparison data further obscures its competitive position.

Recommendation: Avoid / Hold

CART's current price may seem attractive relative to its 52-week high, but the underlying fundamentals do not support a turnaround thesis. The expected earnings decline makes the stock expensive on a forward basis, and the technical picture suggests persistent selling pressure. Until there is clear evidence of improved cost management and a reversal in the negative earnings trajectory, the downside risk appears to outweigh the potential for recovery. Investors should wait for more positive catalysts before considering a position.

RockFlow Model Forecast: Three Scenarios for 2026

Based on the comprehensive analysis provided, here is a 12-month outlook for CART:

12-Month Outlook for CART:

The outlook for CART over the next year is cautious, with the path to recovery heavily dependent on management demonstrating improved cost control. A key potential catalyst would be a positive earnings surprise that shows a reversal in the sharp profitability contraction. The primary risks remain significant, including persistent negative earnings momentum, continued selling pressure, and the high valuation relative to its deteriorating outlook. In the absence of a clear turnaround, the stock is likely to remain under pressure, suggesting limited upside and a potential trading range between the recent lows and the low-$40s, contingent on a broader market rally.

Wall Street Consensus

Most Wall Street analysts are optimistic about Maplebear Inc.'s 12-month outlook, with consensus target around $35.56, indicating expected upside potential.

Overall, CART has investment potential but also faces challenges. Here are key factors to weigh before investing.

CART has exhibited weak performance with significant downside pressure over the past year. The stock has faced substantial declines from its recent highs, reflecting considerable shareholder losses.

The stock declined 8.49% over both the recent one-month and three-month periods, indicating persistent negative momentum. CART has underperformed the broader market by 9.02% during this timeframe, suggesting company-specific challenges rather than general market weakness.

Trading at $36.06, CART sits just 10.2% above its 52-week low of $32.73 but remains 32.6% below its 52-week high of $53.50. Given the sharp decline from peak levels and proximity to recent lows, the stock appears technically oversold and testing significant support levels.

Revenue & Profitability CART reported strong revenue growth with Q4 revenue increasing 5.6% quarter-over-quarter to $992 million, though profitability metrics showed some compression. The net profit margin declined to 8.2% in Q4 from 15.3% in Q3, reflecting increased operational costs despite maintaining a healthy gross profit margin of 71.9%. This indicates solid top-line growth but raises questions about cost management efficiency between quarters.

Financial Health The company maintains a strong liquidity position with no interest expense reported and healthy cash flow generation. Operating cash flow per share stands at $0.72 with free cash flow per share of $0.67, demonstrating robust cash conversion. The capital expenditure coverage ratio of 15.3x indicates ample capacity to fund investments without straining financial resources.

Operational Efficiency While ROE and asset turnover data are unavailable in this report, operational metrics show mixed signals. The operating cash flow to sales ratio of 18.5% indicates reasonable cash generation from revenue, but the decline in operating income ratio from 17.7% to 14.0% suggests potential efficiency challenges. The high free cash flow to operating cash flow ratio of 93.5% demonstrates effective capital management despite these operational headwinds.

Valuation Level: CART's 18.76 TTM P/E ratio appears modest, but the significantly higher forward P/E of 35.47 suggests that earnings are expected to decline substantially in the coming year. The negative PEG ratio further confirms this negative growth outlook, indicating the stock is not cheap relative to its deteriorating earnings trajectory. The lack of an EV/EBITDA multiple (implied by a value of zero) suggests minimal or negative EBITDA, which is a concerning fundamental signal.

Peer Comparison: A direct comparison is not possible as industry average data is unavailable for this analysis. Without relevant industry benchmarks for P/E, P/B, or other multiples, it is impossible to determine how CART's valuation metrics stack up against its direct competitors. This absence of contextual data limits the ability to draw a meaningful conclusion about its relative valuation within the sector.

Volatility Risk: With a beta of 1.005, CART's price movements are expected to closely mirror the broader market, offering no significant insulation from systemic volatility. The substantial one-year maximum drawdown of -38.04% highlights a pronounced risk of severe capital depreciation during market downturns or company-specific setbacks.

Other Risks: The notation of "None" for short interest is unusual and requires verification, as it could indicate extremely low trading activity or a data reporting anomaly, which in itself suggests potential liquidity concerns. The primary risk, therefore, may revolve around market depth and the potential for exaggerated price moves due to a thin float or limited investor base.