Coeur Mining
CDE
$13.88
-8.26%
Coeur Mining, Inc. is a precious metals producer operating gold and silver mines across the Americas, with its portfolio anchored by the Palmarejo, Rochester, Wharf, and Kensington operations spanning the United States, Canada, and Mexico, and the U.S. contributing the largest share of revenue. The company occupies a mid-tier producer niche in the gold industry, distinguished less by scale than by its leverage to metal prices and a balance-sheet transformation following a major acquisition that roughly doubled its share count and revenue base. The current investor debate centers on whether that acquisition-driven growth is durable: revenue has surged year-over-year while the stock has fallen sharply from its highs, as headlines repeatedly tie Coeur's moves to gold and silver price volatility, dollar strength, and rate expectations. Bulls point to a valuation gap versus the in-ground value of reserves and to aggressive capital returns and debt reduction, while bears argue the equity is a high-beta proxy on bullion that has run ahead of fundamentals.…
CDE
Coeur Mining
$13.88
Related headlines
Investment Opinion: Should I buy CDE Today?
Rating: Hold with a speculative buy bias for risk-tolerant investors. The core thesis is that Coeur offers a deep-value opportunity in precious metals with a fortress balance sheet and a forward PE of 8.44x, but the near-term downtrend and margin volatility argue for patience. The analyst consensus is 'buy' with a mean rating of 1.73 and an average target of $23.95, implying 54.8% upside from $15.47.
Supporting evidence includes revenue growth of 125.86% year-over-year to $1,085.6 million in Q2 2026, a TTM free cash flow of $1.156 billion, debt-to-equity of just 0.110, and a forward PE of 8.44x that is roughly 40-50% below a typical mid-tier producer. The PS ratio of 5.47x is near the low end of its multi-year band, and the P/B of 3.42x reflects reserve quality. However, net margin compression to 11.22% in Q2 from 28.82% in Q1 and a beta of 1.371 are cautionary.
The biggest risks are a sustained decline in gold and silver prices, further margin compression, and acquisition integration issues. This Hold would upgrade to Buy if the stock forms a higher low above $13.55 and gross margins stabilize above 45%, or downgrade to Sell if revenue growth decelerates below 20% or the stock breaks decisively below the 52-week low. Relative to its history and peers, the stock is fairly valued on sales but undervalued on forward earnings, a contradiction that reflects market skepticism about earnings durability.
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CDE 12-Month Price Forecast
Coeur Mining presents a high-risk, high-reward precious metals play with a fortress balance sheet and deep valuation discount on forward earnings, but near-term momentum and margin trends are negative. The stock's 33.03% one-year decline and position just 13.9% above its 52-week low suggest the market is pricing in metal-price normalization and skepticism about earnings durability. The wide analyst target range of $18.00 to $35.00 reflects high uncertainty, with the base case centered on $18.00-$23.95. I would upgrade to bullish if the stock forms a higher low above $13.55 and gross margins stabilize above 45%, or downgrade to bearish if revenue growth decelerates below 20% or metal prices break down.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Coeur Mining's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $23.32 and implied upside of +68.0% versus the current price.
Average Target
$23.32
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+68.0%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$18 - $30
Analyst target range
Coverage is solid with 11 analysts, and sentiment is bullish: the consensus recommendation is "buy" with a mean rating of 1.73 (where 1 is Strong Buy), and the average target price of $23.95 implies roughly 54.8% upside from the current $15.47. That is a wide gap between price and target, consistent with a stock that has sold off faster than estimates have been cut, and it suggests the sell-side views the October decline as a metal-price-driven dislocation rather than a fundamental breakdown. The bullish tilt is reinforced by recent actions, including Canaccord Genuity's upgrade to Buy from Hold in April 2026 and repeated Sector Outperform/Outperform ratings from Scotiabank and RBC.
The target range of $18.00 to $35.00 is wide — the high target is about 2.26x the current price and 94% above the low target — signaling high uncertainty and strong dispersion in assumptions. The $35 high likely assumes sustained elevated gold and silver prices, successful integration of the acquisition, and multiple expansion toward peer levels, while the $18 low (still 16.4% above spot) prices in margin compression and metal-price normalization. Consensus revenue of $7.96 billion and EPS of $1.305 for the forward period underpin the targets; the tight clustering of estimates (EPS $1.12-$1.63) suggests reasonable conviction on the earnings base, with the spread in targets driven mainly by commodity-price assumptions rather than operational disagreement.
Bulls vs Bears: CDE Investment Factors
The bear case currently has stronger near-term evidence: the stock is in a confirmed downtrend (-33.03% over one year, -18.49% over one month), margins are compressing despite record revenue, and the equity trades as a high-beta proxy on bullion with a beta of 1.371. However, the bull case is not without merit: the balance sheet is fortress-like (debt-to-equity 0.110, TTM FCF $1.156 billion), the forward PE of 8.44x is near historical lows, and the average analyst target of $23.95 implies 54.8% upside. The single most important tension is whether the earnings step-up implied by the forward PE (consensus EPS $1.305 versus trailing $0.052) is durable or merely a cyclical peak driven by elevated metal prices. If gold and silver hold near current levels and the acquisition integrates smoothly, the valuation gap could close sharply; if metal prices normalize, the stock's premium sales multiple and volatile margins leave little room for error.
Bullish
- Deep discount to analyst targets: The average analyst target of $23.95 implies 54.8% upside from the current $15.47, with 11 analysts at a consensus 'buy' rating (mean 1.73). Even the lowest target of $18.00 sits 16.4% above spot, suggesting the sell-side views the October selloff as a dislocation rather than a fundamental breakdown.
- Explosive revenue growth: Q2 2026 revenue hit $1,085.6 million, up 125.86% year-over-year from $480.7 million, with a clear acceleration from $674.8 million in Q4 2025 and $856.2 million in Q1 2026. This step-change reflects both the acquisition that roughly doubled the share count and elevated metal prices.
- Fortress balance sheet: Debt-to-equity is just 0.110, the current ratio is 2.00, and TTM free cash flow is $1.156 billion. Cash rose to $1.056 billion at quarter-end from $846.0 million, while the company repurchased $110.4 million of stock and repaid $44.9 million of debt, signaling confidence in internal funding.
- Forward PE near historical low: The forward PE of 8.44x is near the low end of its positive-earnings range and roughly 40-50% below a typical mid-tier producer in the mid-teens. The trailing PE of 19.38x versus forward 8.44x implies the market expects earnings to roughly double, consistent with consensus EPS of $1.305 versus trailing $0.052.
Bearish
- Severe price downtrend: The stock is down 33.03% over the past year and 11.85% year-to-date, sitting just 13.9% above its 52-week low of $13.55 and 44.3% below its 52-week high of $27.77. The 1-year relative strength of -48.56 percentage points versus SPY confirms severe underperformance, making any long thesis a mean-reversion call.
- Margin compression despite record revenue: Q2 2026 net margin fell to 11.22% from 28.82% in Q1 and 31.85% in Q4 2025, as operating expenses jumped to $319.3 million and the tax rate rose to 43.3%. Gross margin also slipped to 49.36% from 53.70% in Q4 2025, showing earnings quality is volatile quarter to quarter.
- High-beta commodity proxy: With a beta of 1.371, Coeur is roughly 37% more volatile than the market, and its maximum drawdown of -47.85% over the period is a realistic stress case. Recent news repeatedly ties the stock's moves to gold and silver price volatility, dollar strength, and rate expectations rather than company-specific execution.
- Acquisition dilution risk: The major acquisition lifted diluted shares from about 650.8 million to 1,034.4 million, a roughly 59% increase, and the step-change in revenue partly reflects this larger share base. If metal prices normalize, the per-share earnings benefit of the deal could prove smaller than the headline revenue growth suggests.
CDE Technical Analysis
Coeur is in a damaged but not broken longer-term trend: the stock is down 33.03% over the past year and 11.85% year-to-date, and at $15.47 it sits just 13.9% above its 52-week low of $13.55 and 44.3% below its 52-week high of $27.77 — roughly 14% of the way up the 52-week range. That positioning near the bottom of the band means the stock is closer to a value/oversold zone than to momentum territory, but with a maximum drawdown of -47.85% over the period, it has behaved like a falling knife at times rather than a stable base. The 1-year relative strength of -48.56 percentage points versus SPY confirms severe underperformance, so any long thesis here is a mean-reversion or catalyst call, not a trend-following one.
Short-term momentum is deteriorating and diverging from the medium-term picture: the stock is down 18.49% over the past month versus a 1.22% gain for SPY (relative strength -19.71 points), yet it is still up 7.80% over three months and 5.11 points ahead of SPY on that horizon. That divergence — positive 3-month, sharply negative 1-month — signals a failed rally and a rolling-over of the August-September advance rather than a clean trend reversal, with the October slide from roughly $20.49 on September 22 to $15.47 on October 16 marking a fast, high-volume giveback (latest volume 31.95 million shares). The 6-month change of -24.09% and YTD -11.85% suggest the path of least resistance remains lower until a higher low forms.
Key levels are well defined: support sits at the 52-week low of $13.55, roughly 12.4% below the current $15.47, and a decisive break there would confirm a new leg lower and likely trigger momentum-driven selling. Resistance is the 52-week high of $27.77, about 79.5% above spot, with intermediate supply in the $20-22 zone where the September rally stalled. With a beta of 1.371, Coeur is roughly 37% more volatile than the market, so position sizing should assume amplified drawdowns — the -47.85% max drawdown is a realistic stress case, and a short ratio of 1.56 indicates only moderate short-covering fuel.
Beta
1.37
1.37x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-48.9%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$14-$28
Price range past year
Annual Return
-26.9%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | CDE Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | -32.3% | -1.2% |
| 3m | -8.3% | +3.4% |
| 6m | -28.1% | +7.0% |
| 1y | -26.9% | +14.4% |
| ytd | -20.9% | +12.0% |
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CDE Fundamental Analysis
Revenue is growing explosively: Q2 2026 revenue reached $1,085.6 million, up 125.86% year-over-year from $480.7 million in Q2 2025, and the quarterly sequence shows $674.8 million in Q4 2025, $856.2 million in Q1 2026, and $1,085.6 million in Q2 2026 — a clear acceleration. Segment data shows gold at $695.0 million and silver at $321.6 million, so gold is the dominant driver at roughly 68% of the disclosed split, making the top line highly sensitive to bullion prices rather than volume alone. The growth trajectory supports the investment case only if metal prices hold, since the step-change also reflects the acquisition that lifted diluted shares from about 650.8 million to 1,034.4 million.
Profitability is strong but uneven: Q2 2026 net income was $121.9 million on a 49.36% gross margin, down from Q1's $246.8 million net income and 46.16% gross margin, while Q4 2025 posted $215.0 million net income at a 53.70% gross margin. The Q2 net margin of 11.22% is well below Q1's 28.82% and Q4 2025's 31.85%, largely because operating expenses jumped to $319.3 million and the tax rate rose to 43.3%, compressing earnings despite record revenue. Trailing metrics show a 28.30% net margin, 36.27% operating margin, and 39.30% gross margin, healthy for gold mining but evidence that margin quality is volatile quarter to quarter.
Financial health is a clear strength: debt-to-equity is just 0.110, the current ratio is 2.00, and TTM free cash flow is $1.156 billion, with Q2 2026 free cash flow of $387.5 million on operating cash flow of $513.2 million against capex of $125.7 million. Cash rose to $1.056 billion at quarter-end from $846.0 million, and the company repurchased $110.4 million of stock while repaying $44.9 million of debt, signaling confidence in internal funding. ROE of 17.68% and ROA of 7.14% are solid, and with interest coverage historically above 19x, Coeur is no longer dependent on external financing — the main financial risk is commodity-price-driven cash flow variability, not leverage.
Quarterly Revenue
$1.1B
2026-06
Revenue YoY Growth
+125.9%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
49.4%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$1.2B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is CDE Overvalued?
Because net income is positive, the PE ratio is the primary metric: the trailing PE is 19.38x versus a forward PE of 8.44x, an unusually wide gap that implies the market expects earnings to roughly double. That expectation is consistent with consensus EPS of $1.305 versus trailing EPS of about $0.052, but it also means the stock is priced for a dramatic earnings step-up that must be delivered to justify the multiple. The PEG ratio of 0.038 is distorted by the tiny trailing EPS base and should not be relied upon.
Against sector norms, the stock screens expensive on sales but cheap on forward earnings: PS is 5.47x, EV/Sales 4.89x, EV/EBITDA 11.55x, and P/B 3.42x, while the forward PE of 8.44x is well below what premium gold miners typically command. The spread is best framed as a forward-PE discount of roughly 40-50% versus a typical mid-tier producer in the mid-teens, offset by a PS multiple that is rich for a commodity producer — a contradiction that reflects the market's skepticism about the durability of the earnings surge. The premium on book value (3.42x) and cash flow (PCF 12.77x) suggests investors are paying for reserve quality and growth, not current earnings power.
Historical context is mixed: the stock's own PE history ranges from negative during 2022-2023 losses to 34x in Q2 2026 and 12-13x in Q1 2026 and Q4 2025, while PS has ranged from about 4.1x in 2022 to 21.5x in Q3 2025 and now 5.47x. The current PS of 5.47x is near the low end of its multi-year band, and the forward PE of 8.44x is near the low end of its positive-earnings range, suggesting the market is pricing in either mean-reverting metal prices or skepticism about margin sustainability rather than optimism. That leaves room for re-rating if earnings hold, but also warns that the historical band was built during a period of far smaller revenue.
PE
19.4x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Mid-Range
5-Year PE Range 5x~38x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
11.5x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial and operational risks center on margin volatility and commodity-price dependence rather than leverage. Q2 2026 net margin collapsed to 11.22% from 28.82% in Q1 and 31.85% in Q4 2025, even as revenue hit a record $1,085.6 million, because operating expenses jumped to $319.3 million and the tax rate rose to 43.3%. Gold accounts for roughly 68% of the disclosed revenue split ($695.0 million of $1,016.6 million), so the top line is highly sensitive to bullion prices rather than volume alone. The acquisition that lifted diluted shares from about 650.8 million to 1,034.4 million also raises integration and per-share dilution risk if synergies disappoint. Debt-to-equity of 0.110 and a current ratio of 2.00 mitigate balance-sheet risk, but TTM free cash flow of $1.156 billion could compress quickly in a metal-price downturn.
Market and competitive risks are dominated by valuation compression and high beta. The stock trades at a PS of 5.47x and EV/Sales of 4.89x, rich for a commodity producer, while the forward PE of 8.44x is well below peer levels, a contradiction that leaves the equity vulnerable to multiple compression if earnings estimates are cut. Beta of 1.371 means Coeur is roughly 37% more volatile than the market, and recent news repeatedly ties its moves to gold and silver price volatility, dollar strength, and rate expectations. The 1-year relative strength of -48.56 percentage points versus SPY confirms severe underperformance, and a short ratio of 1.56 indicates only moderate short-covering fuel. Sector rotation away from precious metals or a strengthening dollar would amplify downside.
The worst-case scenario is a sharp normalization in gold and silver prices combined with margin compression and a failed acquisition integration. In that chain of events, the stock could retest its 52-week low of $13.55, which is 12.4% below the current $15.47, and a decisive break there would confirm a new leg lower and likely trigger momentum-driven selling. The maximum drawdown of -47.85% over the period is a realistic stress case, implying a potential loss of roughly 48% from the current price in an adverse scenario. The analyst low target of $18.00 is above spot, so the true bear case is better anchored to the 52-week low and historical drawdown rather than sell-side targets.
FAQ
The most severe risk is commodity-price exposure: gold accounts for roughly 68% of revenue, and recent news ties the stock's moves directly to gold and silver prices, dollar strength, and rate expectations. Second is margin volatility: Q2 2026 net margin fell to 11.22% from 28.82% in Q1 despite record revenue, due to operating expenses of $319.3 million and a 43.3% tax rate. Third is high beta: at 1.371, the stock is 37% more volatile than the market, with a max drawdown of -47.85%. Fourth is acquisition integration and dilution risk, with diluted shares rising from about 650.8 million to 1,034.4 million.
The 12-month forecast has three scenarios: bull case (30% probability) targeting $23.95-$35.00 if metal prices stay elevated and margins recover; base case (50% probability) targeting $18.00-$23.95 if metal prices stabilize and margins hold in the 40-50% range; and bear case (20% probability) targeting $13.55-$18.00 if metal prices decline and margins compress further. The base case is most likely, anchored by the analyst average target of $23.95 and the forward PE of 8.44x. The key assumption is that gold and silver prices remain range-bound and the acquisition integrates without major disruptions.
CDE is fairly valued on sales but undervalued on forward earnings. The PS of 5.47x is near the low end of its multi-year band, while the forward PE of 8.44x is roughly 40-50% below a typical mid-tier producer. The trailing PE of 19.38x versus forward 8.44x implies the market expects earnings to roughly double, consistent with consensus EPS of $1.305 versus trailing $0.052. The P/B of 3.42x and PCF of 12.77x suggest investors are paying for reserve quality and growth. Overall, the market is pricing in skepticism about earnings durability, leaving room for re-rating if margins hold.
From a risk/reward perspective, CDE offers 54.8% upside to the average analyst target of $23.95 but carries a beta of 1.371 and a maximum drawdown of -47.85%. The forward PE of 8.44x is attractive, but the trailing PE of 19.38x and PS of 5.47x show the stock is not cheap on current fundamentals. The biggest downside risk is a retest of the 52-week low of $13.55, which is 12.4% below the current price. For risk-tolerant investors with a 12-18 month horizon, a small position could be justified, but conservative investors should wait for a higher low and margin stabilization.
CDE is better suited for medium-term (12-18 month) holding rather than short-term trading or long-term buy-and-hold. The stock's beta of 1.371 and max drawdown of -47.85% make it too volatile for short-term traders without tight risk management, while the lack of a dividend (payout ratio 0%) and commodity-price dependence limit its appeal for long-term income investors. The forward PE of 8.44x and analyst target of $23.95 suggest a 12-18 month horizon could capture the valuation gap. A minimum holding period of 12 months is suggested, with position sizing to withstand a 48% drawdown.