Coeur Mining
CDE
$15.91
-0.56%
Coeur Mining Inc. is a precious metals producer focused on the discovery and mining of gold and silver across the Americas, with operating mines including Palmarejo, Rochester, Wharf, and Kensington. As a mid-tier gold and silver producer, it distinguishes itself through a diversified asset base in the U.S., Canada, and Mexico, generating the majority of revenue from the United States. The current investor narrative centers on the company's dramatic revenue growth and profitability surge, driven by higher precious metal prices and operational improvements, though recent stock volatility reflects sensitivity to gold and silver price fluctuations and broader macroeconomic concerns.…
CDE
Coeur Mining
$15.91
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Investment Opinion: Should I buy CDE Today?
Rating: Buy. Thesis: Coeur Mining offers a compelling risk/reward at current levels, with explosive revenue growth (137.8% YoY) and a forward PE of 7.96x that implies deep undervaluation relative to expected earnings, though investors must accept high volatility and commodity price risk. The analyst consensus is bullish with an average EPS estimate of $1.15, implying a forward PE of 7.96x, well below the sector average.
Supporting Evidence: Revenue grew 137.8% YoY to $856.2M, net margin expanded to 28.8%, free cash flow was $266.8M in Q1 2026, and the forward PE of 7.96x is a 59% discount to the trailing PE of 19.38x. The PEG ratio of 0.04x further underscores the stock's cheapness relative to growth. The balance sheet is strong with debt-to-equity of 0.11.
Risks & Conditions: The biggest risks are a decline in gold/silver prices, which would compress margins and earnings, and the stock's high beta (1.296) amplifying market downturns. This Buy would downgrade to Hold if gold prices fall 10% from current levels, or upgrade further if the company beats Q2 2026 earnings estimates. Valuation verdict: CDE is undervalued relative to its forward earnings potential, but fairly valued on trailing metrics, making it a buy for growth-oriented investors willing to tolerate volatility.
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CDE 12-Month Price Forecast
The AI assessment is bullish with medium confidence. The fundamental momentum is exceptionally strong, with revenue accelerating and margins expanding, while the forward PE of 7.96x suggests the stock is undervalued relative to expected earnings. However, the stock's high beta and sensitivity to commodity prices introduce significant uncertainty. The base case of stabilization is most likely, but the bull case has a realistic chance if macro conditions favor precious metals. The stance would upgrade to high confidence if gold prices break above $2,200/oz, and downgrade to neutral if Q2 2026 revenue growth decelerates below 50% YoY.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Coeur Mining's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $26.23 and implied upside of +64.8% versus the current price.
Average Target
$26.23
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+64.8%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$19 - $40
Analyst target range
Only 3 analysts cover Coeur Mining, with a consensus leaning bullish based on recent ratings: Canaccord Genuity upgraded to Buy in April 2026, RBC Capital maintains Outperform, and Roth Capital and TD Securities have Buy ratings. The average EPS estimate for the next fiscal year is $1.15, with a range of $0.99 to $1.44, implying a forward PE of 7.96x at the current price. The average revenue estimate is $7.96 billion, with a low of $7.11 billion and high of $9.45 billion, reflecting strong growth expectations. The limited coverage (3 analysts) is typical for a mid-cap mining stock, which can lead to higher volatility and less efficient price discovery. The wide range in EPS estimates (45% spread from low to high) signals high uncertainty around future commodity prices and operational performance. The high estimate of $1.44 assumes continued strength in gold and silver prices and successful execution, while the low estimate of $0.99 factors in potential price declines or cost pressures. The consensus is clearly bullish, but investors should be aware that the small analyst base means less information flow and potentially sharper reactions to news.
Bulls vs Bears: CDE Investment Factors
Coeur Mining presents a compelling but high-risk opportunity. The bull case is anchored by explosive revenue growth (137.8% YoY), surging profitability (28.8% net margin), and a forward PE of 7.96x that suggests deep undervaluation relative to expected earnings. However, the stock has fallen 42% from its 52-week high, reflecting extreme sensitivity to gold and silver prices. The single most important tension is whether current precious metal prices are sustainable: if they hold or rise, the forward PE of 7.96x makes the stock a bargain; if they decline, the trailing PE of 19.38x offers no cushion. Currently, the bull case has stronger evidence given the robust financial performance and low forward multiple, but the bear case cannot be dismissed given the stock's recent technical breakdown and commodity dependency.
Bullish
- Explosive Revenue Growth: Revenue surged 137.8% YoY to $856.2M in Q1 2026, driven by higher gold/silver prices and production. This accelerating trajectory from $360.1M in Q1 2025 demonstrates powerful operational momentum.
- Exceptional Profitability Surge: Net income jumped from $33.4M to $246.8M YoY, with net margin expanding to 28.8% in Q1 2026. Operating margin of 43.4% highlights strong cost control and operating leverage.
- Undervalued on Forward Earnings: Forward PE of 7.96x is well below the trailing PE of 19.38x, implying the market expects earnings to nearly double. This deep discount suggests significant upside if growth materializes.
- Strong Balance Sheet & Cash Flow: Debt-to-equity of 0.11 and current ratio of 2.0 indicate low leverage and ample liquidity. Free cash flow of $266.8M in Q1 2026 provides financial flexibility for reinvestment or debt reduction.
Bearish
- Sharp Price Decline from Highs: Stock has fallen over 42% from its 52-week high of $27.77 to $15.91, with 1-month and 3-month returns of -14.7% and -18.5% respectively, underperforming the S&P 500 significantly.
- High Valuation on Trailing Basis: Trailing PE of 19.38x is at the high end of the gold mining sector range (15-20x). PS ratio of 5.47x is elevated versus historical norms, leaving little room for error if commodity prices fall.
- Extreme Commodity Price Sensitivity: Beta of 1.296 amplifies market moves, and recent news shows stock drops directly tied to falling gold/silver prices. A 10% decline in precious metals could significantly impact earnings.
- Limited Analyst Coverage: Only 3 analysts cover the stock, leading to less efficient price discovery and higher volatility. The wide EPS estimate range ($0.99-$1.44) signals high uncertainty around future commodity prices.
CDE Technical Analysis
The stock is in a clear downtrend over the past six months, with a 1-year price change of +73.88% masking a significant pullback from its 52-week high of $27.77. Currently trading at $15.91, the stock sits at 57.3% of its 52-week range (from low of $8.57 to high of $27.77), indicating it is closer to the low end and suggesting either a value opportunity or continued weakness. The 52-week high was set in late February 2026, and since then the stock has lost over 42% of its value, reflecting a sustained bearish phase. Short-term momentum is decisively negative, with a 1-month price change of -14.74% and a 3-month change of -18.45%, both underperforming the S&P 500 which gained 0% and 7.57% respectively over the same periods. This divergence between the strong 1-year gain and the sharp recent decline signals a potential trend reversal or a severe pullback within a longer-term uptrend, but the accelerating downside momentum favors further weakness. The 52-week low of $8.57 provides a critical support level, while the 52-week high of $27.77 is a major resistance. A breakdown below $8.57 would signal a catastrophic failure, while a recovery above $27.77 would indicate a resumption of the prior uptrend. With a beta of 1.296, the stock is about 30% more volatile than the market, amplifying both upside and downside moves and requiring careful risk management.
Beta
1.30
1.30x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-43.9%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$9-$28
Price range past year
Annual Return
+73.9%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | CDE Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | -14.7% | +0.6% |
| 3m | -18.5% | +6.3% |
| 6m | -29.5% | +9.1% |
| 1y | +73.9% | +20.9% |
| ytd | -9.3% | +10.7% |
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CDE Fundamental Analysis
Revenue has grown explosively, with the most recent quarter (Q1 2026) reporting $856.2 million, a 137.8% year-over-year increase from $360.1 million in Q1 2025. This growth is driven by both higher gold and silver prices and increased production, with gold revenue of $475.2 million and silver revenue of $362.2 million in the latest quarter. The multi-quarter trend shows accelerating growth: Q2 2025 revenue was $480.7 million, Q3 2025 was $554.6 million, Q4 2025 was $674.8 million, and Q1 2026 reached $856.2 million, indicating a powerful upward trajectory that underpins the investment case. Profitability has improved dramatically, with net income of $246.8 million in Q1 2026 versus $33.4 million in Q1 2025, and gross margin expanding from 38.6% to 46.2% over the same period. The net margin of 28.8% in Q1 2026 is exceptionally high for a mining company, reflecting strong operating leverage and favorable metal prices. Operating margin of 43.4% further underscores cost control and efficiency gains, though investors should monitor sustainability if commodity prices decline. The balance sheet is healthy with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.11 and a current ratio of 2.0, indicating low leverage and ample liquidity. Free cash flow generation is robust at $266.8 million in Q1 2026, contributing to a trailing twelve-month free cash flow of $914.8 million. ROE of 17.7% and ROA of 6.7% demonstrate strong returns on capital, and the company has no dividend, instead reinvesting cash into growth and debt reduction.
Quarterly Revenue
$856192000.0B
2026-03
Revenue YoY Growth
+137.8%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
46.2%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$914841000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is CDE Overvalued?
Since net income is positive, the trailing PE ratio of 19.38x is the primary valuation metric, with a forward PE of 7.96x indicating the market expects significant earnings growth. The gap between trailing and forward PE implies that earnings are expected to nearly double, consistent with the recent revenue and profit surge. Compared to the industry average (not provided, but gold miners typically trade at 15-20x trailing earnings), CDE's trailing PE of 19.38x is in line with the sector, but the forward PE of 7.96x suggests it is undervalued relative to expected earnings. The PS ratio of 5.47x is elevated versus historical norms for miners, but justified by the high net margin of 28.3%. Historically, CDE's trailing PE has ranged from negative (during loss periods) to over 375x (in Q2 2024), and the current 19.38x is near the lower end of its positive PE range, suggesting the stock is not overvalued by its own history. The PEG ratio of 0.04x is extremely low, indicating that the stock is cheap relative to its earnings growth rate, though this metric should be treated with caution given the cyclical nature of mining earnings.
PE
19.4x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
High-End
5-Year PE Range 5x~23x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
11.3x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial & Operational Risks: The company's explosive revenue growth is heavily dependent on elevated gold and silver prices. A 10% decline in metal prices could compress net margins from 28.8% significantly, as seen in Q1 2025 when net margin was only 9.3%. While debt-to-equity is low at 0.11, the lack of dividend means investors rely solely on price appreciation. The trailing PE of 19.38x leaves limited room for earnings disappointment, and the high PS ratio of 5.47x suggests the market is pricing in continued growth that may not materialize if commodity prices soften.
Market & Competitive Risks: The stock's beta of 1.296 makes it 30% more volatile than the market, amplifying downside during selloffs. Recent news highlights that stock declines are directly tied to falling gold/silver prices driven by a strengthening US dollar and rising interest rates. With only 3 analysts covering the stock, price discovery is less efficient, and the wide EPS estimate range ($0.99-$1.44) signals high uncertainty. The stock's 42% decline from its 52-week high indicates a potential shift in market sentiment that could persist if macro conditions worsen.
Worst-Case Scenario: If gold and silver prices enter a sustained downturn due to a stronger dollar or higher interest rates, CDE's revenue and earnings could contract sharply. The stock could retest its 52-week low of $8.57, representing a potential 46% decline from the current price of $15.91. This scenario would be exacerbated if the company faces operational issues or cost inflation, further compressing margins. The historical max drawdown of -43.87% from the 52-week high has already occurred, but further downside to $8.57 would represent a total decline of over 69% from the high.
FAQ
The primary risk is commodity price sensitivity: a 10% decline in gold or silver prices could significantly compress margins and earnings, as seen in Q1 2025 when net margin was only 9.3%. Second, the stock's beta of 1.296 amplifies market volatility, making it prone to sharp drawdowns (42% from 52-week high). Third, limited analyst coverage (only 3 analysts) leads to less efficient price discovery and potential for sharp moves on news. Fourth, the lack of a dividend means total return relies solely on price appreciation, which is uncertain. The most severe risk is a sustained downturn in precious metals, which could drive the stock to its 52-week low of $8.57, a 46% decline from current levels.
The 12-month outlook is cautiously bullish. The base case (45% probability) sees the stock trading between $16 and $22, assuming gold and silver prices stabilize near current levels. The bull case (30% probability) targets $22-$28, driven by a rally in precious metals and a re-rating to a forward PE of 12x. The bear case (25% probability) sees the stock falling to $8.50-$14 if commodity prices decline sharply. The most likely scenario is the base case, supported by strong revenue growth (137.8% YoY) and a forward PE of 7.96x. Key catalysts include Q2 2026 earnings and gold price movements above $2,200/oz.
CDE is undervalued on a forward basis but fairly valued on trailing metrics. The trailing PE of 19.38x is in line with the gold mining sector average of 15-20x, while the forward PE of 7.96x suggests the market expects significant earnings growth. The PEG ratio of 0.04x is extremely low, indicating the stock is cheap relative to its growth rate. However, the PS ratio of 5.47x is elevated versus historical norms, reflecting the high net margin of 28.3%. Overall, the valuation implies the market is pricing in continued strong performance but not fully discounting the potential earnings surge. If earnings meet analyst estimates, the stock is undervalued; if commodity prices fall, the trailing PE offers no cushion.
CDE is a good buy for aggressive growth investors who can tolerate high volatility. The stock offers a compelling risk/reward with a forward PE of 7.96x, implying deep undervaluation relative to expected earnings growth. Revenue grew 137.8% YoY and net margin reached 28.8%, demonstrating strong operational momentum. However, the stock has fallen 42% from its 52-week high and is highly sensitive to gold and silver prices. The analyst consensus is bullish, with an average EPS estimate of $1.15. For investors bullish on precious metals, CDE provides leveraged exposure; for those risk-averse, the 1.296 beta and commodity dependency make it a speculative hold.
CDE is best suited for short-to-medium-term tactical investing (6-18 months) given its high volatility and commodity price sensitivity. The stock's beta of 1.296 and 42% drawdown from its 52-week high make it unsuitable for risk-averse long-term holders. However, for investors with a high risk tolerance and a bullish view on precious metals, the forward PE of 7.96x offers a compelling entry point for a 12-month hold. Long-term investors should consider the cyclical nature of mining earnings and the lack of a dividend. A minimum holding period of 12 months is recommended to allow for earnings growth to materialize, but active monitoring of commodity prices is essential.