Coeur Mining
CDE
$14.35
-2.98%
Coeur Mining Inc. is a precious metals producer focused on the discovery and mining of gold and silver across operating mines in the United States, Canada, and Mexico. As one of the largest primary silver producers and a significant gold miner in the Americas, the company distinguishes itself through a diversified asset base and a strong focus on operational efficiency. The current investor narrative centers on the company's transformative growth trajectory, driven by record production, margin expansion, and a robust balance sheet following a major acquisition, while debates persist around its sensitivity to volatile precious metal prices and the sustainability of its recent financial outperformance.…
CDE
Coeur Mining
$14.35
Related headlines
Investment Opinion: Should I buy CDE Today?
Rating: Buy. The thesis is that Coeur Mining's accelerating revenue growth, expanding margins, and deeply discounted forward P/E of 7.96x offer a compelling risk/reward, supported by a consensus Buy rating and an average analyst target of $26.23 implying 64.9% upside.
Supporting Evidence: Revenue grew 137.8% YoY to $856.2M, net income surged to $246.8M from $33.4M, and gross margin expanded to 46.2% from 38.6%. The forward P/E of 7.96x is a deep discount to the trailing P/E of 19.38x and the industry average of 15-20x. TTM free cash flow of $914.8M provides strong cash generation, and the debt-to-equity ratio of 0.11 indicates minimal financial risk. The analyst consensus is Buy with a mean target of $26.23, and even the low target of $19.00 offers 19.4% upside.
Risks & Conditions: The primary risk is a sustained decline in gold and silver prices, which could reverse the recent margin expansion and earnings growth. This Buy rating would be downgraded to Hold if the forward P/E rises above 12x or if revenue growth decelerates below 20% YoY. Conversely, an upgrade would be warranted if the stock pulls back further while fundamentals remain strong. Overall, the stock appears undervalued relative to its forward earnings potential, but investors must monitor commodity price trends closely.
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CDE 12-Month Price Forecast
Coeur Mining's fundamentals are exceptionally strong, with record revenue, expanding margins, and a healthy balance sheet. The forward P/E of 7.96x suggests the stock is undervalued relative to its earnings growth, but the 29.5% six-month decline highlights the market's concern about commodity price sensitivity. The AI stance is bullish with medium confidence, as the bull case depends on sustained precious metal prices. An upgrade to high confidence would require evidence of cost controls that reduce earnings volatility, while a downgrade to neutral would occur if gold prices break below key support levels.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Coeur Mining's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $26.23 and implied upside of +82.8% versus the current price.
Average Target
$26.23
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+82.8%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$19 - $40
Analyst target range
The stock is covered by 11 analysts, with a consensus recommendation of 'Buy' and a mean recommendation score of 1.64 (where 1 is Strong Buy and 5 is Sell). The average target price is $26.23, implying a 64.9% upside from the current price of $15.91. The distribution leans bullish, with recent actions including upgrades from Canaccord Genuity (Buy from Hold in April 2026) and consistent Buy ratings from Roth Capital and TD Securities. The target range spans from a low of $19.00 to a high of $40.00, representing a wide spread of $21.00, which signals high uncertainty among analysts. The high target of $40.00 assumes significant multiple expansion or sustained high gold/silver prices, while the low target of $19.00 still implies 19.4% upside, suggesting even the most bearish analyst sees value. Recent rating actions show a mix: Canaccord Genuity upgraded to Buy in April 2026 after downgrading to Hold in February 2026, while RBC Capital and others have maintained Outperform/Buy ratings. The wide target range and recent rating changes reflect the stock's sensitivity to commodity prices and the market's divergent views on the sustainability of its growth trajectory.
Bulls vs Bears: CDE Investment Factors
Coeur Mining presents a compelling bull case with 137.8% revenue growth, expanding margins, a healthy balance sheet, and a forward P/E of 7.96x that implies significant undervaluation. Analyst consensus is a Buy with 64.9% upside to the average target. However, the stock has declined 29.5% over six months due to falling precious metal prices, and its trailing P/E of 19.38x is elevated. The single most important tension is whether the company can sustain its record earnings growth if gold and silver prices retreat. Currently, the bull case has stronger evidence given the deep discount in forward earnings and strong operational momentum, but the bear case hinges on commodity price sensitivity.
Bullish
- Massive Revenue Acceleration: Revenue surged 137.8% YoY to $856.2M in Q1 2026, driven by record gold and silver sales. This accelerating growth trajectory from $305.4M in Q4 2024 demonstrates strong operational execution and benefits from higher precious metal prices.
- Deeply Discounted Forward P/E: The forward P/E of 7.96x is significantly below the trailing P/E of 19.38x, implying the market expects substantial earnings growth. Compared to the industry average of 15-20x, this suggests the stock is undervalued relative to future earnings potential.
- Strong Profitability and Margins: Net income jumped to $246.8M in Q1 2026 from $33.4M a year ago, with gross margin expanding to 46.2% from 38.6%. The net margin of 28.8% and operating margin of 43.4% highlight efficient cost management and operating leverage.
- Healthy Balance Sheet and Cash Flow: Debt-to-equity ratio is a low 0.11, and the current ratio of 2.0 indicates ample liquidity. TTM free cash flow of $914.8M provides internal funding for growth and reduces reliance on external financing.
Bearish
- Sharp Price Decline and Technical Weakness: The stock has fallen 29.5% over the past six months and 14.7% in the last month alone, underperforming the S&P 500 by 38.7% over six months. The 1-month relative strength of -15.3% signals persistent selling pressure.
- High Sensitivity to Precious Metal Prices: With a beta of 1.296, the stock amplifies market moves, and recent declines are directly tied to falling gold and silver prices. The Motley Fool noted that high valuation makes it vulnerable to commodity price drops.
- Elevated Trailing P/E and P/S Ratios: The trailing P/E of 19.38x is near the higher end of its historical range, and the P/S ratio of 5.47x is elevated. This suggests the market is pricing in optimistic expectations that may not materialize if commodity prices falter.
- Wide Analyst Target Range Indicates Uncertainty: Analyst targets range from $19.00 to $40.00, a spread of $21.00, signaling high uncertainty. Recent rating changes include a downgrade to Hold in February 2026 before an upgrade to Buy in April, reflecting divergent views.
CDE Technical Analysis
The stock is in a clear downtrend over the past six months, with a 1-year price change of +73.88% masking a significant pullback from its 52-week high of $27.77. Currently trading at $15.91, the stock sits at 57.3% of its 52-week range (($15.91 - $8.57) / ($27.77 - $8.57)), near the lower end, suggesting the market is pricing in headwinds rather than the earlier momentum. The 52-week low of $8.57 provides a stark contrast to the current level, indicating the stock has already experienced a substantial correction. Short-term momentum is decisively bearish, with a 1-month price change of -14.74% and a 3-month change of -18.45%, both sharply underperforming the S&P 500's respective gains of +0.6% and +6.29%. This divergence from the positive 1-year trend signals a potential trend reversal or a prolonged correction, as the stock has given back a significant portion of its earlier gains. The relative strength metrics confirm this weakness, with a 1-month relative strength of -15.34% and a 3-month relative strength of -24.74%, indicating persistent selling pressure. The 52-week high of $27.77 and low of $8.57 define the key resistance and support levels. A break above $27.77 would signal a resumption of the long-term uptrend, while a breakdown below $8.57 would imply a complete reversal of the prior year's gains. With a beta of 1.296, the stock is about 30% more volatile than the market, meaning it tends to amplify broader market moves, which is critical for risk management in a volatile commodity environment.
Beta
1.30
1.30x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-47.1%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$9-$28
Price range past year
Annual Return
+56.3%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | CDE Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | -18.1% | +0.3% |
| 3m | -29.6% | +4.7% |
| 6m | -36.4% | +7.5% |
| 1y | +56.3% | +18.4% |
| ytd | -18.2% | +9.0% |
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CDE Fundamental Analysis
Revenue has accelerated dramatically, with the most recent quarter (Q1 2026) reporting $856.2 million, a 137.8% year-over-year increase from $360.1 million in Q1 2025. This growth is driven by a surge in gold and silver sales, with gold contributing $475.2 million and silver $362.2 million in the latest quarter. The multi-quarter trend shows revenue climbing from $305.4 million in Q4 2024 to $480.7 million in Q2 2025, $554.6 million in Q3 2025, $674.8 million in Q4 2025, and then $856.2 million in Q1 2026, indicating accelerating growth. This trajectory underscores successful operational execution and likely benefits from higher precious metal prices, making the investment case highly dependent on sustained commodity demand. Profitability has improved markedly, with net income of $246.8 million in Q1 2026 versus $33.4 million in Q1 2025, and gross margin expanding to 46.2% from 38.6% a year ago. The net margin of 28.8% in Q1 2026 is robust, reflecting strong operating leverage, while the operating margin of 43.4% highlights efficient cost management. The company has transitioned from near break-even in early 2024 to substantial profitability, with net income growing from $1.4 million in Q2 2024 to $246.8 million in Q1 2026, demonstrating a clear upward trajectory. The balance sheet is healthy, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.11 and a current ratio of 2.0, indicating low leverage and ample liquidity. Free cash flow generation is strong, with TTM free cash flow of $914.8 million and Q1 2026 free cash flow of $266.8 million, providing internal funding for growth and reducing reliance on external financing. The ROE of 17.7% and ROA of 6.7% reflect efficient capital utilization, while the debt-to-equity ratio of 0.11 suggests minimal financial risk, supporting the company's ability to navigate commodity price cycles.
Quarterly Revenue
$856192000.0B
2026-03
Revenue YoY Growth
+137.8%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
46.2%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$914841000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is CDE Overvalued?
Given net income is positive ($246.8 million in Q1 2026), the primary valuation metric is the P/E ratio. The trailing P/E stands at 19.38x, while the forward P/E is significantly lower at 7.96x, implying the market expects substantial earnings growth in the coming year. The gap between trailing and forward multiples suggests that current earnings are depressed relative to future expectations, which could indicate either a value opportunity or overly optimistic consensus estimates. Compared to the industry average (not provided, but typically for gold miners around 15-20x), the trailing P/E of 19.38x is near the higher end, while the forward P/E of 7.96x is a deep discount. The PEG ratio of 0.04 (based on estimated EPS growth) suggests the stock is undervalued relative to its growth rate, but this extreme low number warrants caution as it may reflect near-term earnings spikes. The P/S ratio of 5.47x and EV/Sales of 6.39x are elevated, indicating the market is pricing in high revenue multiples. Historically, the trailing P/E has ranged from negative (during loss periods) to over 20x. The current trailing P/E of 19.38x is near the higher end of its historical range over the past few years, where it has fluctuated between roughly 4x and 375x. This suggests the market is pricing in optimistic expectations for sustained profitability, but the forward P/E of 7.96x indicates that if earnings materialize as expected, the stock could be undervalued. The PB ratio of 3.42x is also elevated relative to historical levels near 1x, reflecting the market's valuation of the company's asset base after recent acquisitions.
PE
19.4x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
High-End
5-Year PE Range 5x~23x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
11.3x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial & Operational Risks: Coeur Mining's financial performance is highly dependent on gold and silver prices, which are volatile and beyond the company's control. While the debt-to-equity ratio is low at 0.11, the company's earnings have historically been erratic, with net income swinging from $1.4M in Q2 2024 to $246.8M in Q1 2026. This volatility means that a sustained decline in precious metal prices could quickly erode profitability, as seen in the 29.5% stock decline over six months. The gross margin, while improved to 46.2%, could compress if production costs rise or ore grades decline.
Market & Competitive Risks: The stock's beta of 1.296 makes it about 30% more volatile than the market, amplifying downside during risk-off periods. The trailing P/E of 19.38x is near the higher end of its historical range, leaving it vulnerable to multiple compression if investor sentiment shifts. Recent news highlights that the stock's high valuation makes it susceptible to declines in gold and silver prices, which are influenced by macro factors like the US dollar strength and interest rates. The wide analyst target range ($19-$40) reflects significant uncertainty about future commodity prices and the company's ability to maintain growth.
Worst-Case Scenario: If gold and silver prices enter a prolonged bear market, Coeur Mining's revenue and earnings could decline sharply, potentially returning to near break-even levels seen in early 2024. In such a scenario, the stock could fall to its 52-week low of $8.57, representing a 46.1% decline from the current price of $15.91. This worst-case outcome would be driven by a combination of falling commodity prices, margin compression, and a re-rating to a lower P/E multiple, as the market prices in reduced profitability.
FAQ
The primary risk is commodity price sensitivity: a 10% drop in gold prices could significantly impact revenue and earnings, as seen in the 29.5% stock decline over six months. Financial risk is low due to a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.11, but earnings volatility is high, with net income swinging from $1.4M to $246.8M in two years. Competitive risk includes operational disruptions at mines or rising production costs that could compress margins. Macro risks include a strengthening US dollar or rising interest rates, which historically pressure precious metal prices. The most severe risk is a prolonged bear market in gold and silver, potentially driving the stock to $8.57 (46.1% downside).
The 12-month forecast is based on three scenarios: a bull case (30% probability) with a target of $26.23-$40.00, driven by sustained high gold prices and operational success; a base case (50% probability) with a target of $19.00-$26.23, assuming stable commodity prices and moderate growth; and a bear case (20% probability) with a target of $8.57-$19.00, if gold prices decline sharply. The base case is most likely, supported by the analyst average target of $26.23 and the company's strong fundamentals. Key assumptions include gold prices remaining above $2,000/oz and continued margin expansion.
CDE's trailing P/E of 19.38x is near the higher end of its historical range, suggesting it is not cheap on past earnings. However, the forward P/E of 7.96x is a deep discount to the industry average of 15-20x, indicating the market expects significant earnings growth. The P/S ratio of 5.47x and EV/Sales of 6.39x are elevated, reflecting high revenue multiples. The PEG ratio of 0.04 is extremely low, implying undervaluation relative to growth, but this may be due to near-term earnings spikes. Overall, the stock appears undervalued based on forward earnings, but the market is pricing in optimistic expectations that may not materialize if commodity prices fall.
From a risk/reward perspective, CDE appears attractive given the 64.9% upside to the analyst average target of $26.23 and a forward P/E of 7.96x that implies undervaluation. However, the stock has declined 29.5% over six months due to falling precious metal prices, and its trailing P/E of 19.38x is elevated. It is a good buy for investors with a bullish view on gold and silver who can tolerate high volatility (beta 1.296). For conservative investors, the risk of a 46.1% decline to the 52-week low of $8.57 may be too high. The strong fundamentals support a Buy rating, but position sizing should account for commodity price risk.
CDE is better suited for short-to-medium-term investment given its high beta of 1.296 and sensitivity to commodity price cycles. The stock has no dividend yield, so it is not an income play. Its growth stage suggests potential for capital appreciation if precious metal prices remain favorable, but the 29.5% six-month decline highlights the risk of sharp drawdowns. A minimum holding period of 12 months is recommended to allow for earnings growth to materialize and reduce the impact of short-term volatility. Long-term investors should be comfortable with cyclical swings and monitor commodity trends closely.