CF Industries
CF
$116.73
+0.02%
CF Industries Holdings, Inc. is a leading global producer and distributor of nitrogen fertilizers, primarily serving the agricultural sector with products such as ammonia, urea, and nitrogen solutions. The company leverages its access to low-cost North American natural gas to maintain a significant cost advantage, positioning it as one of the lowest-cost nitrogen producers worldwide. Currently, the stock is in focus due to the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which have disrupted global fertilizer supply chains and boosted demand for North American producers, alongside CF's strategic investments in low-carbon ammonia for future energy markets. These factors are driving investor attention as the company navigates both cyclical agricultural demand and emerging opportunities in clean energy.…
CF
CF Industries
$116.73
CF 12-Month Price Forecast
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on CF Industries's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $125.25 and implied upside of +7.3% versus the current price.
Average Target
$125.25
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+7.3%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$100 - $196
Analyst target range
The target price range spans from a low of $100.00 to a high of $195.72, representing a wide spread of 95.7% between the low and high targets. This wide range suggests significant uncertainty among analysts about the company's future prospects, likely due to the cyclical nature of the fertilizer industry and the potential impact of geopolitical events. The high target of $195.72 implies a 56.3% upside from the current price, which would require a substantial multiple expansion or sustained high nitrogen prices. Conversely, the low target of $100.00 suggests a 20.1% downside, reflecting concerns about a potential downturn in agricultural demand or a resolution of supply disruptions. Recent institutional ratings show a mix of 'Equal Weight' and 'Neutral' actions, with no major upgrades or downgrades, indicating a stable but not overly bullish sentiment.
CF Technical Analysis
CF Industries is in a strong uptrend, with the stock price up 34.86% over the past year, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's 18.19% gain. The current price of $125.19 sits at 88.2% of its 52-week range (between $75.42 and $141.96), indicating the stock is trading near its highs, reflecting robust momentum and investor confidence. The 1-year price change of 34.86% and the 6-month change of 34.28% underscore a sustained bullish trend, though the stock is still about 11.8% below its 52-week high, suggesting potential resistance ahead.
Beta
0.40
0.40x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-25.8%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$75-$142
Price range past year
Annual Return
+29.8%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | CF Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +1.6% | +2.8% |
| 3m | +1.5% | +4.2% |
| 6m | +26.0% | +11.3% |
| 1y | +29.8% | +21.5% |
| ytd | +45.7% | +12.7% |
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CF Fundamental Analysis
CF Industries has demonstrated strong revenue growth, with the most recent quarter (Q1 2026) reporting revenue of $1.986 billion, a 19.42% increase year-over-year. This growth is part of a multi-quarter trend, with revenue rising from $1.663 billion in Q1 2025 to $1.986 billion in Q1 2026, indicating accelerating momentum. The company's revenue is diversified across ammonia ($627 million), UAN ($583 million), urea ($590 million), and AN ($69 million), with ammonia being the largest segment. This broad-based growth is driven by higher nitrogen prices and volumes, benefiting from the global supply disruptions.
Quarterly Revenue
$2.0B
2026-03
Revenue YoY Growth
+19.4%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
37.6%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$1.6B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is CF Overvalued?
Given CF Industries' positive net income of $615 million in Q1 2026, the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is the most appropriate valuation metric. The trailing PE is 8.61x, while the forward PE is 11.11x, indicating that the market expects earnings to decline slightly, which is typical for a cyclical company at the peak of the cycle. The gap between trailing and forward PE suggests that while current earnings are strong, analysts anticipate normalization in the future. This is a low PE multiple, reflecting the market's view that current earnings are above trend.
PE
8.6x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Mid-Range
5-Year PE Range 4x~14x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
4.4x
Enterprise Value Multiple