Church & Dwight Co., Inc.

Based on a balanced analysis of CHD's current position, the stock presents a nuanced picture for potential investors.

Technical Analysis CHD exhibits strong positive momentum, having significantly outperformed the market with impressive returns of 19.43% over the past three months. This upward trend is notably stable, characterized by a low beta of 0.47, suggesting disciplined buying interest rather than speculative frenzy. While the stock has recovered 54% from its 52-week low, it still trades 12% below its high, indicating potential for further appreciation without appearing severely overbought.

Fundamental Analysis Fundamentally, CHD shows a mixed bag. The company has demonstrated sequential revenue growth and maintains excellent financial health with a conservative debt load and strong interest coverage. However, profitability is a concern, with a recent decline in net income and generally low operational efficiency metrics like a 3.6% ROE, which could hinder long-term value creation.

Valuation & Risk The primary caution lies in CHD's valuation, where metrics like a forward P/E of nearly 35 and an exceptionally high EV/EBITDA of 78 suggest the stock is significantly overpriced. Risk is mitigated by its low volatility and lack of negative speculative pressure, but the substantial historical drawdown of -27.92% underscores that it is not immune to market downturns.

Buy Recommendation CHD is a HOLD at current levels. The strong technical momentum and solid financial health are positive factors, but they are overshadowed by a demanding valuation that appears to price in significant future growth. Investors should await a more attractive entry point or clearer signs of improved profitability and operational efficiency before considering a purchase. The current price seems to reflect optimism that may not be immediately supported by underlying fundamentals.

RockFlow Model Forecast: Three Scenarios for 2026

Based on a 12-month outlook for CHD, the stock faces a cross-current of strong technical momentum against demanding valuation and profitability concerns.

Key catalysts for upside include the continuation of its stable, low-volatility uptrend and potential for improved operational efficiency to justify its premium valuation.

The primary risks are valuation compression if growth disappoints, given its high forward P/E and EV/EBITDA multiples, alongside persistent weakness in net income and ROE which could limit long-term gains.

Given the lack of a consensus analyst target price, a prudent target range would be relatively narrow, perhaps $105-$115, reflecting the potential for modest appreciation if momentum holds, but capped by rich valuations that leave little room for error. A pullback to the low-$90s would likely present a more compelling risk/reward profile.

Wall Street Consensus

Most Wall Street analysts are optimistic about Church & Dwight Co., Inc.'s 12-month outlook, with consensus target around $103.25, indicating expected upside potential.

Overall, CHD has investment potential but also faces challenges. Here are key factors to weigh before investing.

CHD has demonstrated strong outperformance versus the broader market over the recent quarter, propelled by substantial double-digit gains. The stock's low beta indicates these gains have been achieved with relatively low volatility despite the significant upward momentum. This combination suggests disciplined and sustained buying interest.

Over the past one and three months, CHD has delivered impressive returns of 12.54% and 19.43%, respectively, substantially outperforming the market by 18.91% over the quarter. The strong short-term momentum indicates robust positive sentiment is currently driving the stock. The low beta of 0.468 further highlights that this surge has been unusually stable for such pronounced appreciation.

Currently trading at $101.97, CHD sits approximately 54% above its 52-week low but remains about 12% below its 52-week high. While showing considerable recovery from its lowest point, the price is not at an extreme overbought level, especially considering the year's maximum drawdown of -27.92% still leaves room for further recovery toward previous peaks.

Revenue & Profitability: CHD demonstrated sequential quarterly revenue growth from Q3 to Q4 2025, increasing from $1.586B to $1.644B. Profitability improved with gross profit margin expanding to 45.8%, though net income declined from $182.2M to $143.5M primarily due to elevated other expenses recorded in Q4.

Financial Health: The company maintains a conservative debt ratio of approximately 24.7% with a healthy debt-to-equity ratio of 55.1%. Its strong interest coverage ratio of 10.8x confirms solid debt servicing capability, supported by part by consistent operating cash flow generation.

Operational Efficiency: CHD's operational efficiency appears constrained by modest return metrics including an ROE of just 3.6% and asset turnover of 0.18x. Its working capital cycle of approximately 86.5 days suggests average inventory management efficiency relative to industry peers.

Based on the available metrics, CHD appears significantly overvalued. The stock is trading at a trailing PE of 32.09 and a forward PE of 34.87, which are high for a typical consumer staples company. Furthermore, the extremely high EV/EBITDA of 78.32 and a negative PEG ratio of -1.74, which indicates anticipated earnings contraction, reinforce the conclusion of a premium valuation level.

A peer comparison cannot be conducted due to the unavailability of industry average data. This absence of contextual benchmarks makes it impossible to determine if CHD's valuation multiples are justified relative to its sector peers. The analysis would benefit significantly from industry-specific data to properly contextualize these valuation metrics.

Volatility risk is low, as indicated by CHD's beta of 0.468, suggesting the stock is significantly less volatile than the broader market. However, the one-year maximum drawdown of -27.92% reveals that the stock has still experienced a substantial peak-to-trough decline, presenting a pronounced risk of capital depreciation during market corrections.

The absence of notable short interest suggests there is minimal speculative pressure betting on a near-term price decline, reflecting generally positive market sentiment. Risks may therefore be more related to broader market or sector-specific factors rather than stock-specific selling pressure or liquidity concerns.