Church & Dwight
CHD
$94.15
+0.22%
Church & Dwight Co., Inc. is a leading consumer packaged goods company that produces and markets a diverse portfolio of household and personal care products, including laundry detergents, cat litter, oral care, deodorants, and nasal care items, primarily under the iconic Arm & Hammer brand. The company holds a strong market position as the world's leading producer of baking soda and has successfully expanded into adjacent categories, with its top brands (Arm & Hammer, Batiste, OxiClean, Hero, and TheraBreath) accounting for roughly 70% of annual sales and profits. Currently, the investor narrative centers on the company's ability to sustain growth through strategic acquisitions (such as Touchland in 2025) and product innovation, while navigating a challenging consumer environment marked by modest revenue growth and margin pressures. Additionally, the stock's performance relative to the broader market and its defensive characteristics are drawing attention as investors seek stability amid economic uncertainty.…
CHD
Church & Dwight
$94.15
CHD 12-Month Price Forecast
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Church & Dwight's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $105.37 and implied upside of +11.9% versus the current price.
Average Target
$105.37
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+11.9%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$78 - $115
Analyst target range
Church & Dwight is covered by 19 analysts, with a consensus recommendation of 'buy' and a mean recommendation score of 2.24 (where 1 is strong buy and 5 is sell), indicating a moderately bullish stance. The average target price is $105.37, which implies an upside of approximately 6.9% from the current price of $98.55. The distribution of ratings is not provided, but the consensus leans toward buy, with recent actions from firms like Wells Fargo (Overweight) and RBC Capital (Outperform) reinforcing positive sentiment. The target price range spans from $78.00 (low) to $115.00 (high), representing a wide spread of 47.4% from low to high, which signals significant uncertainty about the company's future performance. The high target of $115 assumes successful integration of acquisitions, market share gains, and margin expansion, while the low target of $78 likely prices in potential competitive pressures, input cost inflation, or a consumer spending downturn. Recent ratings have been stable, with no major upgrades or downgrades in the past few months, indicating that analysts are maintaining their views amid the company's steady but unspectacular performance.
Bulls vs Bears: CHD Investment Factors
Church & Dwight presents a mixed picture: strong profitability, a defensive brand portfolio, and low volatility are countered by stagnant revenue growth, significant underperformance versus the market, and a premium valuation. The bull case rests on the company's ability to reignite growth through acquisitions and innovation, while the bear case highlights the risk of continued top-line stagnation and margin pressure. Currently, the evidence slightly favors the bull side given the analyst consensus and profitability, but the key tension is whether CHD can accelerate organic growth to justify its premium multiple. If revenue growth remains near zero, the stock could de-rate; if acquisitions like Touchland drive meaningful growth, the stock could re-rate higher.
Bullish
- Strong brand portfolio: Top brands (Arm & Hammer, Batiste, OxiClean, Hero, TheraBreath) account for ~70% of sales and profits, providing pricing power and customer loyalty. This concentration in defensive household products supports stable demand even in economic downturns.
- High profitability metrics: Net margin of 14.7% in Q1 2026 and ROE of 18.4% significantly exceed industry averages (net margin 8.5%), demonstrating efficient capital use and strong competitive positioning. This justifies a premium valuation.
- Modest growth expected: Forward PE of 24.4x implies ~13% earnings growth, supported by acquisitions like Touchland and innovation. Analysts estimate EPS of $4.83 for the next fiscal year, up from current trailing EPS of ~$3.57, indicating confidence in continued expansion.
- Defensive characteristics: Beta of 0.47 indicates low volatility relative to the market, making CHD a defensive play. This is attractive for investors seeking stability amid economic uncertainty, as the stock has outperformed the S&P 500 YTD (+19.3% vs +12.9%).
Bearish
- Stagnant revenue growth: Q1 2026 revenue grew only 0.15% YoY to $1.469B, and quarterly revenues have fluctuated without clear upward trend. This suggests limited organic growth, relying on acquisitions to drive top-line expansion.
- Underperformance vs market: CHD returned only 3.5% over the past year versus S&P 500's 18.65%, a significant underperformance. Relative strength is negative across 1M, 3M, and 6M periods, indicating persistent selling pressure.
- Margin compression risk: Gross margin in Q1 2026 was 46.4%, down from 44.9% a year earlier (though this is an improvement, the trend is mixed). Operating margin declined from 20.1% to 19.8% YoY, reflecting cost pressures from input inflation and investments.
- Premium valuation: Trailing PE of 27.6x is 22.6% above the industry average of 22.5x. While justified by profitability, any earnings miss could trigger multiple compression, given the stock's high expectations.
CHD Technical Analysis
The prevailing price trend for Church & Dwight over the past year has been a gradual recovery, with the stock up 3.49% over the last 12 months, though it has significantly underperformed the S&P 500, which gained 18.65% in the same period. The current price of $98.55 sits at approximately 82% of its 52-week range (between $81.33 and $106.04), indicating that the stock is trading in the upper-middle portion of its range, suggesting a moderate level of strength but not at overbought extremes. This positioning implies that while the stock has recovered from its lows, it has not yet reached the momentum highs seen in the broader market, potentially offering a more stable but less dynamic investment profile.
Beta
0.47
0.47x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-14.8%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$81-$106
Price range past year
Annual Return
-0.3%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | CHD Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | -7.0% | -1.1% |
| 3m | -3.5% | +3.0% |
| 6m | -3.7% | +15.4% |
| 1y | -0.3% | +16.2% |
| ytd | +13.9% | +12.1% |
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CHD Fundamental Analysis
Revenue growth has been nearly flat, with the most recent quarter (Q1 2026) showing revenue of $1.469 billion, a mere 0.15% increase year-over-year, and sequential quarterly revenues have fluctuated between $1.47 billion and $1.64 billion over the past year, indicating a stagnating top line. The company's growth has been hampered by modest volume growth and pricing pressures, though strategic acquisitions like Touchland are expected to contribute incrementally. Net income for Q1 2026 was $216.3 million, with a net margin of 14.7%, which is healthy, but the company's gross margin of 46.4% in the same quarter reflects slight compression from the prior year's 44.9% (Q1 2025), indicating some cost pressures. Operating margin stood at 19.8% in Q1 2026, up from 20.1% in the year-ago quarter, showing relative stability, but the company's profitability is solid, with an ROE of 18.4% and ROA of 7.9%, demonstrating efficient use of capital.
Quarterly Revenue
$1.5B
2026-03
Revenue YoY Growth
+0.1%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
46.4%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$1.1B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is CHD Overvalued?
Given that Church & Dwight is profitable, the primary valuation metric selected is the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio. The trailing PE is 27.58x, while the forward PE is 24.40x, indicating that the market expects earnings growth of approximately 13% over the next year, which is consistent with the company's historical growth trajectory. The gap between trailing and forward PE suggests a modest growth premium, reflecting expectations of continued margin expansion and acquisition-driven growth. Compared to the industry average PE of 22.5x (based on available data), CHD trades at a 22.6% premium, which is justified by its superior profitability (net margin of 11.9% vs. industry average of 8.5%) and strong brand portfolio. Historically, the stock's PE has ranged from 21.96x to 39.42x over the past five years, and the current 27.58x is near the midpoint of that range, suggesting that the stock is fairly valued relative to its own history, with no extreme overvaluation or undervaluation.
PE
27.6x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Low-End
5-Year PE Range 22x~39x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
17.0x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial & Operational Risks: CHD's debt-to-equity of 0.55 and current ratio of 1.07 indicate moderate leverage and tight liquidity, which could constrain investment or increase vulnerability to rising interest rates. The company's revenue growth is nearly flat (0.15% YoY in Q1 2026), and its reliance on acquisitions for growth introduces integration risks; the Touchland acquisition in 2025 must deliver synergies to justify its cost. Gross margin compression from 44.9% to 46.4% (though an improvement) and operating margin decline from 20.1% to 19.8% suggest cost pressures that could erode profitability if input costs rise further. Free cash flow of $1.07B TTM is positive but modest relative to market cap, limiting the margin of safety.