C. H. Robinson Worldwide
CHRW
$147.64
+0.65%
C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc. is a leading non-asset-based third-party logistics provider, specializing in freight brokerage, air and ocean forwarding, and transportation management services, operating within the integrated freight and logistics industry. As a top-tier player, its distinct competitive identity lies in its vast network and technology-enabled platform, which handles a significant portion of domestic truck brokerage and intermodal freight. Currently, the investor narrative centers on the company's strategic transformation under new leadership, focusing on digital modernization and cost discipline, while navigating a volatile freight market and potential competitive threats from new entrants like Amazon, which have recently pressured the stock despite its long-term growth prospects.…
CHRW
C. H. Robinson Worldwide
$147.64
Investment Opinion: Should I buy CHRW Today?
Rating: Hold. The consensus is 'buy' with an average target of $199.84, implying 35.4% upside, but the recent downtrend and fundamental headwinds warrant caution. The thesis is that CHRW is a quality logistics provider undergoing a transformation, but near-term challenges in freight markets and competitive threats limit upside.
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CHRW 12-Month Price Forecast
The AI model assesses CHRW as neutral with medium confidence. The valuation is attractive on forward earnings, and analyst sentiment is positive, but the negative revenue growth and margin compression create uncertainty. The stock's technical downtrend and competitive threats from Amazon are significant risks. The stance would upgrade to bullish if revenue growth turns positive and margins stabilize, or if the stock breaks above its 50-day moving average. It would downgrade to bearish if the freight market deteriorates further or if the company issues weak guidance.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on C. H. Robinson Worldwide's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $199.84 and implied upside of +35.4% versus the current price.
Average Target
$199.84
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+35.4%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$91 - $237
Analyst target range
C.H. Robinson is covered by 25 analysts, with a consensus recommendation of 'buy' and a mean rating of 1.8 (where 1 is strong buy and 5 is sell). The average target price is $199.84, implying a 35.4% upside from the current price of $147.64. The distribution of ratings is not provided, but the consensus leans bullish, with recent actions from firms like Jefferies upgrading from Hold to Buy and UBS maintaining a Buy. The target price range is wide, from a low of $91.00 to a high of $237.00, indicating high uncertainty about the company's future performance. The high target suggests expectations of a strong recovery in freight markets and successful execution of the company's digital transformation, while the low target reflects concerns about prolonged margin pressure and competitive threats. Recent ratings actions show a mix of upgrades and downgrades, with Citigroup downgrading from Buy to Neutral in June, but other firms like Jefferies upgrading in May, indicating a divergence in analyst sentiment.
Bulls vs Bears: CHRW Investment Factors
The bull case rests on a compelling valuation (forward PE below peers), strong analyst conviction (35% upside), and demonstrated cost discipline that boosted net income despite flat revenue. The bear case is driven by a severe technical downtrend, margin compression, revenue stagnation, and the Amazon threat. Currently, the bearish momentum and fundamental headwinds appear stronger, but the stock's low forward multiple and potential for a freight market recovery offer a favorable risk/reward for patient investors. The central tension is whether the company's transformation can offset cyclical and competitive pressures, determining if the stock re-rates toward the average target or continues to slide.
Bullish
- Forward PE at Discount to Industry: CHRW's forward PE of 19.7x is 10.5% below the industry average of 22x, suggesting the market is pricing in a normalization of earnings. This implies a potential re-rating if the company delivers on its transformation plan.
- Analyst Consensus Buy with 35% Upside: With 25 analysts, the consensus is 'buy' (mean rating 1.8) and the average target price is $199.84, implying a 35.4% upside from the current price of $147.64. Recent upgrades from Jefferies and UBS reinforce positive sentiment.
- Cost Controls Driving Net Income Growth: Despite flat revenue, Q1 2026 net income rose 8.8% YoY to $147.2 million, driven by cost controls and operational efficiencies. This demonstrates management's ability to protect profitability in a challenging freight market.
- Strong Balance Sheet with Low Debt: Debt-to-equity is 0.88, and the current ratio is 1.53, indicating a solid liquidity position. This financial stability provides a cushion against market volatility and supports ongoing investment in technology.
Bearish
- Sharp Downtrend and Underperformance: CHRW is down 19.8% over the past three months and 17.8% over six months, with relative strength of -24.2% and -32.4% versus the S&P 500 over the same periods. This indicates persistent selling pressure and investor skepticism.
- Gross Margin Compression: Gross margin fell to 7.7% in Q1 2026 from 8.6% a year ago, reflecting intense competition and pricing pressure in freight brokerage. This trend, if continued, could erode profitability.
- Revenue Decline Signals Weak Demand: Q1 2026 revenue decreased 0.8% YoY to $4.01 billion, and the company faces a volatile freight market with no clear recovery in sight. This top-line stagnation limits earnings growth potential.
- Amazon Threat Looms Large: Amazon's entry into third-party logistics is a structural threat, potentially disrupting the brokerage model with its scale and technology. This has already pressured the stock and could compress margins further.
CHRW Technical Analysis
C.H. Robinson's stock is currently in a pronounced downtrend, with the price at $147.64 as of September 4, 2026, having declined 19.8% over the past three months and 17.8% over the past six months. The stock is trading at 24.4% above its 52-week low of $123.64 but 29.8% below its 52-week high of $210.33, indicating it is closer to the lower end of its range, which often suggests a potential value opportunity but also reflects ongoing selling pressure. The 1-year price change of +15.5% shows that despite the recent decline, the stock has still gained over the past year, but the sharp reversal from the July peak of $209.42 to current levels signals a significant loss of momentum.
Beta
0.94
0.94x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-32.4%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$124-$210
Price range past year
Annual Return
+15.5%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | CHRW Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | -3.9% | -0.4% |
| 3m | -19.8% | +4.2% |
| 6m | -17.8% | +13.7% |
| 1y | +15.5% | +19.0% |
| ytd | -9.8% | +12.9% |
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CHRW Fundamental Analysis
C.H. Robinson's revenue for Q1 2026 was $4.01 billion, a slight decrease of 0.8% year-over-year, indicating a stabilization after a period of decline. The company's gross margin for the quarter was 7.7%, down from 8.6% in the same quarter last year, reflecting ongoing pressure in the freight brokerage business. Net income for Q1 2026 was $147.2 million, up from $135.3 million in Q1 2025, a 8.8% increase, driven by cost controls and operational efficiencies. The company's operating margin improved to 4.4% from 4.4% in the prior year, showing stability despite revenue headwinds.
Quarterly Revenue
$4.0B
2026-03
Revenue YoY Growth
-0.8%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
7.7%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$857672000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is CHRW Overvalued?
Given that C.H. Robinson has positive net income, the primary valuation metric selected is the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio. The trailing PE is 32.9x, while the forward PE is 19.7x, indicating that the market expects significant earnings growth in the coming year. The gap between trailing and forward PE suggests that analysts anticipate a substantial recovery in profitability, likely driven by cost savings and a rebound in freight volumes. Compared to the industry average PE of 22x, C.H. Robinson's trailing PE of 32.9x represents a 49.5% premium, but the forward PE of 19.7x is at a 10.5% discount, implying that the market is pricing in a normalization of earnings. Historically, the stock's PE has ranged from 9.4x to 83.1x over the past five years, with the current trailing PE near the higher end, suggesting that the market is currently valuing the stock at a premium to its historical average, which may be justified by the company's transformation initiatives.
PE
32.9x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
High-End
5-Year PE Range 9x~35x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
23.4x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial risks include a high debt-to-equity ratio of 0.88, which, while manageable, increases interest expense (Q1 2026: $14 million) and financial leverage. Gross margin compression from 8.6% to 7.7% YoY indicates pricing power erosion, and revenue decline of 0.8% suggests demand weakness. The company's net margin of 3.6% is thin, leaving little room for error; any further cost inflation or volume drop could significantly impact EPS. However, free cash flow of $857.7 million TTM provides a buffer, and the current ratio of 1.53 indicates adequate liquidity to meet short-term obligations.