CHRW
CHRWC.
H. Robinson Worldwide is a leading global logistics company specializing in freight transportation and supply chain management. It operates as a third-party logistics provider, leveraging its expansive network and technology platform to arrange efficient cargo transport for a vast range of customers.
Updated: January 14, 2026, 16:00 EST
Investment Opinion: Should I buy CHRW Today?
Of course. Here is a comprehensive analysis of whether CHRW is worth buying, integrating the provided data.
Technical Analysis CHRW exhibits exceptionally strong bullish momentum, significantly outperforming the broader market over the past three months. Its price surge of over 30% in three months is formidable, but the stock is now technically overbought, trading just 0.5% below its all-time high. While the low beta suggests less volatility than the market generally, the sharp gains and proximity to its historic peak heighten the risk of a near-term consolidation or pullback as the stock digests these aggressive gains.
Fundamental Analysis CHRW demonstrates solid financial health, characterized by stable revenue hovering around $4.14 billion per quarter and healthy improvement in its bottom-line management, (X) and effective bottom-line management, (Y). The company's financial position is stable with a strong current ratio suggesting good liquidity, and its debt levels are manageable as indicated by a reasonable interest coverage ratio. However, its operational efficiency is moderate, with an asset turnover ratio indicating steady but not stellar returns.
Valuation & Risk CHRW's valuation is a major concern, appearing significantly overvalued based on its current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of over 45. The premium demanded by the market for its earnings is substantial, and the stock's high P/E ratio suggests investors are paying a high price for its earnings. The primary risk is its current overbought technical position, which historically precedes a pullback to consolidate gains.
Buy Recommendation
CHRW's stock exhibits exceptionally strong bullish momentum, significantly outperforming the broader market. Its powerful upward trend is confirmed by its significant relative strength against the market, indicating the price advance is driven by strong stock-specific demand rather than simply a rising market. Based on the comprehensive analysis, the recommendation is to buy.
CHRW 12-Month Price Forecast
RockFlow Model Forecast: Three Scenarios for 2026
Based on a comprehensive analysis, here is the 12-month outlook for C.H. Robinson (CHRW):
The primary catalyst for CHRW will be its ability to capitalize on the recent, strong bullish momentum and demonstrate that its premium valuation is justified by sustainable earnings growth and market share gains in the freight logistics sector. The key risk is a significant near-term price correction, as the stock is technically overbought and fundamentally expensive with a P/E ratio over 45, making it highly sensitive to any negative earnings surprises or a broader market pullback. While analyst targets are not explicitly provided, the current price near all-time highs suggests a cautious approach; a more reasonable target range for the next 12 months would likely be between $160 and $190, factoring in both the potential for continued momentum and the high risk of a valuation-driven consolidation.
Wall Street Consensus
Most Wall Street analysts are optimistic about CHRW's 12-month outlook, with consensus target around $172.31, indicating expected upside potential.
Bulls vs Bears: CHRW Investment Factors
Overall, CHRW has investment potential but also faces challenges. Here are key factors to weigh before investing.
Bullish
- Strong AI-driven gains: AI initiatives are boosting productivity and profits ahead of schedule.
- Raised financial targets: Increased 2026 operating income guidance and implied EPS.
- Major shareholder returns: $2 billion share buyback and increased quarterly dividend.
- Significant cost reductions: Cost-cutting measures are improving margins and earnings estimates.
- Record stock performance: Shares surged 20% to all-time highs on strong results.
Bearish
- Ongoing freight market slump: Company is performing well despite weak industry demand.
- High valuation concerns: Rapid price surge may have stretched valuation metrics.
- Dependence on AI execution: Future growth heavily relies on successful AI implementation.
- Competitive logistics industry: Operating in a highly competitive, low-margin sector.
- Economic cycle sensitivity: Performance remains tied to broader economic health.
CHRW Technical Analysis
Of course. Here is the technical analysis of CHRW's price performance.
Overall Assessment CHRW has demonstrated exceptionally strong bullish momentum, significantly outperforming the broader market over the recent three-month period.
Short-term Performance The stock exhibits powerful upward momentum, with a substantial 8.52% gain in one month accelerating to an impressive 34.54% surge over three months. This bullish trend is confirmed by its significant 31.17% relative strength against the market, indicating the price advance is driven by strong stock-specific demand rather than simply a rising market.
Current Position CHRW is trading near the apex of its 52-week range, just 0.5% below its historic high of $174.25, indicating a technically overbought condition. While the low beta of 0.913 suggests less volatility than the market, the proximity to the 52-week high and the substantial 20.81% maximum drawdown within the past year highlight the potential for a near-term consolidation or pullback as the stock digests its sharp gains.
| Period | CHRW Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +9.7% | +1.3% |
| 3m | +37.5% | +5.7% |
| 6m | +73.8% | +10.6% |
| 1y | +67.2% | +16.5% |
| ytd | +5.2% | +1.1% |
CHRW Fundamental Analysis
Of course. Here is a fundamental analysis of CHRW based on the provided data.
**Revenue & Profitability**
CHRW demonstrates stable revenue generation, with both Q2 and Q3 2025 posting revenues of approximately $4.14 billion. Profitability margins are healthy but relatively narrow, characteristic of a logistics company; the Q3 gross profit margin was 8.6%, and the net profit margin was 3.9%. The diluted EPS improved sequentially from $1.26 to $1.34, indicating effective bottom-line management and earnings growth.
**Financial Health**
The company maintains a solid financial position, evidenced by a strong current ratio of 1.59, suggesting good short-term liquidity. The debt-to-equity ratio of 0.81 indicates a moderate use of leverage, which is manageable. However, the interest coverage ratio of 2.34, while acceptable, warrants monitoring as it shows earnings are sufficient to cover interest expenses, but with a thinner margin of safety.
**Operational Efficiency**
CHRW shows moderate operational efficiency, with an asset turnover of 0.79, implying it generates about $0.79 in revenue for every dollar of assets. The Return on Equity (ROE) of 8.8% is respectable but not exceptional, reflecting steady returns for shareholders. The high days sales outstanding (DSO) of 59 days highlights a lengthy cash collection cycle, which is an area for potential improvement in working capital management.
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Level
CHRW appears significantly overvalued based on its current ratios. The trailing P/E of 45.22 and forward P/E of 24.44 are extremely high, signaling that investors are paying a substantial premium for its earnings. This is further confirmed by the elevated P/B ratio of 10.98, which suggests the stock price is far above its book value, and a PEG ratio well above 1.0 at 3.45, indicating the high P/E is not justified by its growth prospects.
Peer Comparison
A direct peer comparison cannot be performed as industry average data is unavailable. However, the company's valuation multiples, particularly the high P/E and EV/EBITDA of 53.14, are generally indicative of a stock trading at a significant premium. Without industry benchmarks, it is challenging to contextualize these figures, but they are typically considered expensive by broad market standards.
Investment Risk Disclosure
Volatility risk for CHRW appears moderate based on its beta of 0.913, indicating it moves slightly less than the broader market on average. The stock demonstrated a reasonable level of downside protection over the past year with a maximum drawdown of -20.81%, which is not excessive for a single stock but still represents a meaningful potential loss for investors.
Other systematic risks appear limited; the absence of notable short interest suggests the market holds a generally constructive outlook on the company's prospects. While liquidity was not quantified, its listing as a sizable public company typically provides adequate trading volume for most investors, though this should be confirmed with specific volume data.
FAQs
Of course. Here is a professional assessment of CHRW.
Opinion: Neutral to Bearish from a valuation perspective.
Core Reasons: 1. Extreme Valuation: The stock trades at a demanding trailing P/E of 45 and a P/B of nearly 11, indicating a significant premium that may not be sustainable. 2. Technical Exhaustion: The price is near its 52-week high after a sharp 34% surge, suggesting it is overbought and susceptible to a pullback or consolidation. 3. Cyclical Headwinds: The company operates in the highly competitive, low-margin logistics sector, which remains in a freight market slump.
Suitable Investor Types: This stock is suitable primarily for momentum traders who can tolerate high volatility. Long-term value investors should wait for a more attractive entry point, as the current price appears to discount much of the positive AI-driven news.
Based on the provided data, CHRW appears significantly overvalued. Its trailing P/E of 45.22 and forward P/E of 24.44 are extremely high by broad market standards, indicating investors are paying a substantial premium for its earnings. The valuation is not justified by its growth, as the PEG ratio of 3.45 (well above 1.0) signals its P/E outpaces its growth rate. Furthermore, the P/B ratio of 10.98 shows the stock price is far above its book value, which is difficult to sustain given the company's moderate profitability (8.8% ROE) and operational metrics.
Of course. As a professional risk management analyst, here is an assessment of the key risks of holding CHRW stock, based on the provided information.
Key Risks of Holding CHRW
1. Market Risk (Price Reversal): The stock is technically overbought, trading near its 52-week high after a sharp 34.54% three-month surge, creating a high risk of a near-term price correction or consolidation as the market digests these gains. 2. Operational & Macroeconomic Risk: As a logistics company with narrow profit margins (gross margin of 8.6%), CHRW is highly vulnerable to economic cyclicality and inflationary pressures, which can quickly squeeze profitability by increasing operational costs like fuel and wages faster than shipping rates. 3. Financial Leverage Risk: The company's moderate leverage (debt-to-equity of 0.81) coupled with a thin interest coverage ratio of 2.34 poses a risk, as a downturn in earnings could pressure its ability to service debt comfortably without impacting operational flexibility. 4. Working Capital Efficiency Risk: The high days sales outstanding (DSO) of 59 days indicates a slow cash collection cycle, which strains liquidity and exposes the company to greater credit risk from its customers, especially in a deteriorating economic environment.
Of course. Based on a synthesis of the provided fundamental analysis and the macroeconomic context for the freight logistics industry, here is a forecast for C.H. Robinson (CHRW) stock through 2026.
**Forecast for C.H. Robinson (CHRW) through 2026**
1. Target Price Range: The forecast suggests a base case target of $175-$195 and a bull case target of $200-$220 by the end of 2026. This reflects moderate growth from the current price, contingent on the company successfully executing its strategy in a challenging freight market.
2. Key Growth Drivers: * Market Share Gains: Capitalizing on industry volatility to win new customers seeking stability and global reach. * Technology Investments: Enhanced margins through increased automation and data-driven efficiency in its logistics platform. * Economic Recovery: A rebound in global manufacturing and retail inventory cycles driving increased freight volumes.
3. Main Assumptions: * The global economy avoids a deep recession, supporting steady freight demand. * CHRW maintains its premium valuation by demonstrating sustainable earnings growth that justifies its current P/E ratio. * The company manages its leverage and improves its cash collection cycle (DSO).
4. Uncertainty Note: This forecast is highly sensitive to fluctuations in freight rates and broader economic conditions. The stock's current premium valuation makes it vulnerable to any earnings disappointments or a significant downturn in the freight cycle, which could lead to a sharp correction.
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