Comcast
CMCSA
$25.02
+1.09%
Comcast is a diversified media and telecommunications conglomerate whose core cable business owns the broadband, video, and voice networks reaching roughly half of US homes and businesses, complemented by NBCUniversal (NBC network, Bravo, Peacock, Universal Studios, and theme parks) and Sky, the large UK/Italy pay-TV provider acquired in 2018. The company sits in an unusual hybrid position — a dominant, cash-generative connectivity incumbent with a regulated-utility-like subscriber base, bolted to a media and content portfolio that competes in the far more volatile streaming and theatrical arenas. The current investor debate is dominated by broadband subscriber attrition amid fierce fixed-wireless and fiber competition, a revenue miss and subscriber losses in the Q3 2026 print, and the strategic pivot implied by the reported spin-off of NBCUniversal and the earlier spinoff of cable networks such as CNBC, MSNBC, and USA. That portfolio-slimming narrative, combined with a deeply discounted valuation and a near-5% dividend yield, has turned the stock into a battleground between value investors betting on sum-of-the-parts realization and bears who see structural cord-cutting and broadband share loss as an eroding moat.…
CMCSA
Comcast
$25.02
Related headlines
Investment Opinion: Should I buy CMCSA Today?
Rating: Hold with a value-bias toward accumulation. The core thesis is that CMCSA at $24.39 trades at a 5.18x trailing and 6.93x forward PE — versus its own 18.78x in Q4 2021 and 13.37x in Q4 2023 — with a 4.81% covered dividend and $17.085 billion of trailing free cash flow, so the downside is largely priced while the NBCUniversal spin-off offers a sum-of-the-parts catalyst; but with a 'hold' consensus (9 Buy / 14 Hold / 4 Sell, mean 2.63) and an average target of $27.98 implying only +14.7% upside, there is no urgency to chase the recent +16.48% one-month rally.
The supporting evidence is valuation and cash generation rather than growth: a PEG of 0.174, PB of 1.05x (down from 2.37x in Q4 2021), PS of 0.82x and EV/EBITDA of 4.37x — roughly half the 8–10x typical for large-cap cable — against a 71.75% gross margin, 16.17% net margin and 20.64% ROE. Q3 2026 EPS of $0.97 rose from $0.90 a year earlier on a shrinking diluted share count (3.562 billion vs. 3.733 billion), and the 24.47% payout ratio leaves ample room to fund the separation and $3.061 billion of quarterly debt repayment. The offset is that Q3 revenue fell 6.09% YoY to $29.298 billion with sequential deceleration ($31.457B → $29.940B → $29.298B), and consensus 2027 EPS of $4.497 and revenue of $122.5 billion imply stabilization, not a rebound.
The biggest risks that could invalidate the thesis are (1) broadband attrition proving structural rather than cyclical in the $17.018 billion Residential Connectivity segment, (2) a delayed or unfavorably structured NBCUniversal spin-off that denies the SOTP re-rating, and (3) further downgrades following the September 25 KeyBanc move to Underweight. This Hold would upgrade to Buy if broadband subscribers stabilize and the stock holds above the $26.50–$27.20 supply zone, or if the spin-off is confirmed on value-accretive terms; it would downgrade to Sell on a decisive break below the $20.48 52-week low or another revenue miss with accelerating subscriber losses. Verdict: undervalued relative to its own history and to cable/telecom peers, but fairly-to-appropriately discounted given structural broadband risk — a show-me value situation, not a growth story.
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CMCSA 12-Month Price Forecast
CMCSA presents a classic deep-value-versus-structural-decline debate: the 5.18x trailing PE, 1.05x PB and 4.37x EV/EBITDA sit at multi-year lows and imply the market has already priced significant broadband deterioration, while $17.085 billion of free cash flow and a well-covered 4.81% yield provide a real margin of safety. Against that, Q3 2026 revenue fell 6.09% YoY with sequential deceleration and broadband subscriber losses, and the 'hold' consensus with only +14.7% average upside offers little near-term conviction. The recent +16.48% one-month rally (versus a -4.99% SPY move) looks more like mean-reversion and short covering than a confirmed reversal, especially with the stock failing to hold $25. I would upgrade to bullish if broadband net adds stabilize and the NBCUniversal spin-off is confirmed on value-accretive terms, and downgrade to bearish on a break below the $20.48 52-week low or another revenue miss with accelerating subscriber losses.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Comcast's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $27.98 and implied upside of +11.8% versus the current price.
Average Target
$27.98
27 analysts
Implied Upside
+11.8%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
27
covering this stock
Price Range
$17 - $42
Analyst target range
Coverage is broad with 22 analysts, but sentiment is decidedly lukewarm: 9 Buy, 14 Hold, and 4 Sell, yielding a consensus recommendation of "hold" and a recommendation mean of 2.63 (where 1 is strong buy and 5 is strong sell). The average target price of $27.98 implies roughly +14.7% upside from the current $24.39, a modest but positive signal that leans neutral-to-mildly-constructive rather than bullish. Consensus 2027 EPS estimates of $4.497 (range $4.429–$4.559) and revenue of $122.5 billion suggest analysts expect stabilization rather than a sharp rebound.
The target range is exceptionally wide — from a low of $17.00 to a high of $42.00, a spread of 147% of the current price — which signals deep disagreement about the company's future. The $42 high target likely assumes successful execution of the NBCUniversal spin-off, sum-of-the-parts re-rating toward peer multiples, and a stabilization of broadband subscribers; the $17 low target prices in continued subscriber attrition, margin compression, and a value trap. Recent institutional actions skew cautious: KeyBanc downgraded to Underweight from Sector Weight on September 25, while Citigroup, TD Cowen, Rosenblatt, and Evercore ISI reiterated Buy/Outperform and Morgan Stanley, Barclays, and Scotiabank stayed at Equal Weight/Sector Perform — a pattern of stable-to-negative revisions that reinforces the "show-me" stance implied by the hold consensus.
Bulls vs Bears: CMCSA Investment Factors
The bear case currently has stronger near-term evidence: revenue is shrinking 6.09% YoY with broadband subscriber losses, the forward PE inversion signals expected earnings decline, and analyst consensus is a lukewarm hold with only +14.7% average upside. The bull case rests on valuation and cash flow rather than growth — a 5.18x PE, 4.81% covered dividend, $17.1 billion of free cash flow, and a potential NBCUniversal spin-off that could force a sum-of-the-parts re-rating. The single most important tension is whether broadband subscriber attrition is cyclical (competitive pricing that management can answer) or structural (a permanently eroding moat); if the former, the discount is excessive and the spin-off is a catalyst, but if the latter, the cheap multiple is a value trap. The recent +16.48% one-month rally and positive 3-month relative strength hint the market is beginning to lean toward the value interpretation, but the failure to hold $25 keeps conviction low. Net-net, this is a show-me value situation where the risk/reward is skewed favorably but the catalyst path is uncertain.
Bullish
- Deep value at 5.2x trailing earnings: CMCSA trades at a trailing PE of just 5.18x and a forward PE of 6.93x, versus a historical PE of 18.78x in Q4 2021 and 13.37x in Q4 2023. The PEG ratio of 0.174 and PB of 1.05x (down from 2.37x in Q4 2021) place the stock at the bottom of its own multi-year valuation band, offering a wide margin of safety if fundamentals merely stabilize.
- Massive free cash flow and covered dividend: Trailing free cash flow is $17.085 billion, with Q3 operating cash flow of $7.904 billion against $3.691 billion of capex. The 4.81% dividend yield carries a payout ratio of only 24.47%, leaving ample room to keep paying shareholders while funding the NBCUniversal separation and $3.061 billion of quarterly debt repayment.
- Sum-of-the-parts spin-off catalyst: The reported spin-off of NBCUniversal, following the earlier separation of cable networks CNBC, MSNBC, and USA, could unlock value that the market currently refuses to recognize at a 4.37x EV/EBITDA. The $42 analyst high target implies roughly 72% upside and likely assumes a successful SOTP re-rating toward the 8–10x range typical for large-cap cable and telecom peers.
- Profitability and cost discipline intact: Despite a 6.09% YoY revenue decline in Q3 2026, net income was $3.448 billion on a 74.35% gross margin and 16.17% net margin, and diluted EPS rose to $0.97 from $0.90 a year earlier. Share count fell to 3.562 billion from 3.733 billion, showing per-share earnings are still grinding higher through buybacks and cost control.
Bearish
- Revenue declining and decelerating: Q3 2026 revenue of $29.298 billion fell 6.09% YoY, and the sequential path from $31.457B in Q1 to $29.940B in Q2 to $29.298B in Q3 shows deterioration rather than stabilization. The Q3 revenue miss and broadband subscriber losses confirm that competitive share loss, not just cord-cutting, is now hitting the top line.
- Broadband moat eroding under competition: Fixed-wireless and fiber competition are driving subscriber attrition in the core Residential Connectivity & Platforms segment, which at $17.018 billion still anchors the majority of revenue. If broadband losses prove structural rather than cyclical, the cash-generative utility-like base that underpins the entire thesis is impaired.
- Analyst sentiment is decidedly lukewarm: Of 22 analysts, only 9 rate Buy versus 14 Hold and 4 Sell, yielding a consensus 'hold' and a recommendation mean of 2.63. KeyBanc downgraded to Underweight on September 25, and the average target of $27.98 implies only +14.7% upside — a modest signal that leans neutral rather than bullish.
- Forward PE exceeds trailing, signaling earnings decline: The unusual inversion of a 6.93x forward PE above a 5.18x trailing PE implies the market expects earnings to fall from the trailing base, likely reflecting one-time gains in the trailing figure and revenue headwinds. Consensus 2027 EPS of $4.497 and revenue of $122.5 billion suggest stabilization at best, not a rebound.
CMCSA Technical Analysis
Comcast is in a damaged but stabilizing downtrend: the stock is down 10.69% over the past year and 17.43% year-to-date, and at $24.39 it sits at roughly 31.5% of its 52-week range of $20.48–$32.86 — closer to the floor than the ceiling, which historically flags either a value opportunity or a falling knife rather than momentum leadership. The 36.39% max drawdown underscores how punishing the de-rating has been, and the stock's position well below the 52-week high of $32.86 means any sustained recovery requires clearing a long wall of overhead supply. Relative strength confirms the underperformance: -20.28% versus SPY over one year and -25.26% YTD, even as the 3-month relative strength has clawed back to +1.09%, hinting the bleeding may be slowing.
Short-term momentum has sharply diverged from the longer-term trend. The stock has ripped +16.48% over the past month against a -3.82% three-month change and a -10.69% one-year decline, producing a striking +21.47% one-month relative strength versus SPY (which fell 4.99% over the same span). That kind of violent counter-trend rally off a depressed base — the stock bottomed near $20.66 on October 9 before surging to $24.95 by November 5 — typically signals aggressive mean-reversion and short covering rather than a confirmed trend reversal, especially given the -2.24% pullback on the latest session to $24.39. With a short ratio of 2.4 and volume of 26.4 million shares, the move has participation, but the failure to hold the $25 handle on the most recent day argues for caution on chasing strength.
Key technical levels are well defined. Support sits at the 52-week low of $20.48, with the October swing low around $20.66 as the immediate floor; a breakdown below that zone would confirm the downtrend and likely target new lows. Resistance is the 52-week high of $32.86, with intermediate supply near the $26.50–$27.20 area where the August rally stalled. The beta of 0.707 is a critical risk-management input: Comcast is roughly 29% less volatile than the market, meaning the recent +16% monthly move is unusually large for this name and position sizing should account for a stock that typically dampens, rather than amplifies, portfolio swings.
Beta
0.71
0.71x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-36.4%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$20-$33
Price range past year
Annual Return
-8.9%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | CMCSA Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +21.0% | -2.4% |
| 3m | -4.4% | -2.3% |
| 6m | +1.1% | +2.8% |
| 1y | -8.9% | +11.3% |
| ytd | -15.3% | +11.4% |
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CMCSA Fundamental Analysis
The revenue trajectory is the central problem: Q3 2026 revenue of $29.298 billion declined 6.09% year-over-year versus $31.198 billion in Q3 2025, and the sequential path ($31.457B in Q1, $29.940B in Q2, $29.298B in Q3) shows deceleration rather than stabilization. Segment data reveals the mix: Residential Connectivity & Platforms at $17.018 billion remains the anchor, Media at $5.359 billion, Studios at $2.967 billion, Theme Parks at $2.597 billion, and Business Services Connectivity at $2.645 billion — meaning the connectivity franchise still drives the majority of revenue while the media assets face secular pressure. The Q3 revenue miss and broadband subscriber losses cited in coverage confirm that competitive share loss, not just cord-cutting, is now weighing on the top line, which undermines the bull case for a clean sum-of-the-parts re-rating.
Profitability remains robust in absolute terms even as it normalizes. Q3 2026 net income was $3.448 billion on a 74.35% gross margin and 18.16% operating margin, with a 16.17% net margin — healthy for telecom, though the operating margin has compressed from 19.77% in Q2 2025 and the net margin sits below the 36.69% spike in that same quarter (which was inflated by a large one-time gain). EPS of $0.97 in Q3 2026 compares to $0.90 diluted in Q3 2025, so per-share earnings are still grinding higher even as revenue shrinks, reflecting cost discipline and a shrinking share count (3.562 billion diluted shares versus 3.733 billion a year ago). The margin story is therefore one of resilience through cost control rather than top-line leverage — sustainable for now, but with limited room if revenue declines persist.
Balance sheet and cash generation are the strongest part of the thesis. Trailing free cash flow is $17.085 billion, Q3 operating cash flow was $7.904 billion against $3.691 billion of capex, and the company returned capital aggressively with $1.174 billion of dividends and $3.061 billion of debt repayment in the quarter. Debt-to-equity of 1.14 and a current ratio of 0.88 reflect a leveraged but manageable structure, while ROE of 20.64% and ROA of 4.26% show the equity base is still productive. The 4.81% dividend yield with a payout ratio of just 24.47% is well covered by free cash flow, giving management substantial flexibility to keep deleveraging and fund the NBCUniversal separation without cutting the payout.
Quarterly Revenue
$29.3B
2026-09
Revenue YoY Growth
-6.1%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
74.4%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$17.1B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is CMCSA Overvalued?
Because Comcast is solidly profitable (Q3 net income of $3.448 billion, TTM EPS positive), the PE ratio is the appropriate primary metric. The stock trades at a trailing PE of just 5.18x against a forward PE of 6.93x — an unusual inversion where the forward multiple exceeds the trailing one, implying the market expects earnings to decline from the trailing base (likely reflecting one-time gains in the trailing figure and the revenue headwinds). Even on the forward number, 6.93x is extraordinarily cheap for a business with a 16.17% net margin and $17 billion of free cash flow, and the PEG ratio of 0.174 screams deep value on a growth-adjusted basis.
Against the Communication Services sector, Comcast is trading at a steep discount rather than a premium. Its PS ratio of 0.82x and EV/Sales of 1.35x are far below what media and telecom peers command, and the EV/EBITDA of 4.37x is roughly half the 8–10x range typical for large-cap cable and telecom operators. The PB ratio of 1.05x means the market values the entire enterprise at barely book value, while the 71.75% gross margin and 20.64% ROE argue the discount is excessive relative to the underlying profitability — though the market is clearly pricing in structural broadband decline and execution risk around the NBCUniversal spin.
Historically, Comcast's valuation has compressed dramatically. Its PE ratio has fallen from 18.78x in Q4 2021 and 13.37x in Q4 2023 to 5.18x today, while the PS ratio has collapsed from 7.52x in Q4 2021 to 0.82x — both near multi-year lows. The PB ratio of 1.05x compares to 2.37x in Q4 2021 and 2.11x in Q4 2023, confirming the stock is at the bottom of its own historical band. That positioning suggests either a genuine value opportunity if the spin-off unlocks sum-of-the-parts value, or fundamental deterioration if broadband losses prove structural — the 4.81% dividend yield and 3.03x price-to-cash-flow provide a meaningful margin of safety either way.
PE
5.2x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Low-End
5-Year PE Range 6x~15x
vs. Industry Avg
9.1x
Industry PE ~9.1x*
EV/EBITDA
4.4x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial and operational risks center on the revenue trajectory and leverage. Q3 2026 revenue fell 6.09% YoY to $29.298 billion, with sequential deceleration from $31.457B to $29.940B to $29.298B, and the core Residential Connectivity segment at $17.018 billion faces broadband subscriber losses that directly threaten the cash engine. Debt-to-equity of 1.14 and a current ratio of 0.88 reflect a leveraged balance sheet with limited short-term liquidity cushion, while interest expense of $962 million in Q3 consumes a meaningful slice of the $5.32 billion operating income. The margin story is one of cost-control resilience rather than top-line leverage — operating margin of 18.16% is down from 19.77% in Q2 2025 — so if revenue declines persist, there is limited room left to protect earnings through cost cuts alone.
Market and competitive risks are dominated by valuation compression and structural disruption. Even at a 5.18x trailing PE and 4.37x EV/EBITDA — roughly half the 8–10x typical for large-cap cable — the market is explicitly pricing in broadband decline and execution risk around the NBCUniversal spin, meaning a failed separation or a worse-than-expected subscriber print could push the multiple even lower rather than catalyze a re-rating. Competition from fixed-wireless and fiber is intensifying, and the broader streaming wars add volatility to the Media segment ($5.359 billion) and Peacock. The beta of 0.707 means CMCSA is roughly 29% less volatile than the market, so it offers some downside dampening, but it also means the stock will not rally as hard in a broad risk-on rotation, and sector rotation away from Communication Services would compound company-specific weakness.
Worst-case scenario: broadband attrition accelerates beyond current trends, the NBCUniversal spin-off is delayed or structured unfavorably, and Q4 results miss again, triggering further downgrades like the September KeyBanc move to Underweight. In that chain, the stock would retest and likely break its 52-week low of $20.48 (the October swing low was $20.66), and the $17.00 analyst low target would come into play — implying roughly -16% to -30% downside from the current $24.39. A full retracement to the $17 bear target would represent a loss of about 30%, consistent with the stock's already-realized 36.39% max drawdown, so investors should size positions for a realistic -16% to -30% adverse outcome rather than assume the dividend yield alone protects the price.
FAQ
Ranked by severity: first, structural broadband attrition in the $17.018 billion Residential Connectivity segment, where fixed-wireless and fiber competition drove subscriber losses alongside a 6.09% YoY revenue decline in Q3 2026 — this is the factor that would turn the cheap multiple into a value trap. Second, execution risk on the NBCUniversal spin-off: a delay or unfavorable structure would deny the sum-of-the-parts re-rating and could trigger further downgrades like KeyBanc's September 25 move to Underweight. Third, financial leverage: debt-to-equity of 1.14, a current ratio of 0.88 and interest expense of $962 million per quarter limit flexibility, and operating margin has already compressed to 16.71% from 19.77% in Q2 2025, leaving little room to offset further revenue declines through cost cuts. Fourth, market and sentiment risk: with only 9 of 22 analysts at Buy and a 2.63 recommendation mean, the stock has limited sponsorship, and its 0.707 beta means it will not rally as hard in a risk-on rotation even as it dampens downside.
The 12-month scenario framework assigns a 55% probability to the base case of $26.00–$30.00, a 25% probability to the bear case of $17.00–$20.50, and a 20% probability to the bull case of $32.00–$42.00. The base case assumes revenue stabilizes near consensus 2027 estimates of $122.5 billion and EPS of $4.497, broadband attrition moderates, and the stock grinds toward the $27.98 analyst average target on the back of $17.085 billion of free cash flow and the 4.81% dividend. The bear case requires accelerating subscriber losses, another revenue miss and a delayed or unfavorable spin-off, pushing the stock through the $20.48 52-week low toward the $17.00 analyst low. The bull case requires a confirmed, value-accretive NBCUniversal separation that re-rates EV/EBITDA from 4.37x toward the 8–10x peer band, with the $42.00 high target representing the full sum-of-the-parts outcome. The base case is most likely, and its key assumption is that broadband losses moderate rather than accelerate.
CMCSA screens as deeply undervalued on every absolute and historical measure: the 5.18x trailing PE compares with 18.78x in Q4 2021 and 13.37x in Q4 2023, the 0.82x PS ratio compares with 7.52x in Q4 2021, and the 1.05x PB compares with 2.37x in Q4 2021 and 2.11x in Q4 2023. Its 4.37x EV/EBITDA is roughly half the 8–10x typical for large-cap cable and telecom peers, and the 0.174 PEG ratio is extraordinarily low against a 16.17% net margin and 20.64% ROE. The unusual inversion of a 6.93x forward PE above a 5.18x trailing PE signals the market expects earnings to decline from the trailing base, likely reflecting one-time gains and revenue headwinds. What the market is pricing is not a going-concern discount but a structural-decline discount: broadband share loss to fixed-wireless and fiber plus execution risk on the NBCUniversal spin. If those fears prove cyclical rather than structural, the stock is materially undervalued; if they prove structural, the discount is deserved and the multiple could compress further.
From a risk/reward standpoint the setup is asymmetric but catalyst-dependent: at $24.39 the stock trades at 5.18x trailing and 6.93x forward earnings with a 4.81% dividend covered at a 24.47% payout ratio, and the $27.98 average analyst target implies +14.7% upside while the $17.00 low target implies roughly -30% downside. The bear case has the stronger near-term evidence — Q3 2026 revenue fell 6.09% YoY to $29.298 billion with broadband subscriber losses and a revenue miss — so the cheap multiple alone is not a sufficient reason to buy. The bull case depends on two identifiable events: broadband net losses stabilizing and the NBCUniversal spin-off being confirmed on value-accretive terms. It is a reasonable buy for income-oriented value investors with a 12–24 month horizon who can tolerate a retest of the $20.48 52-week low, and a poor buy for momentum or growth investors given the -17.43% YTD decline and 20.28% one-year underperformance versus SPY.
CMCSA is better suited to a long-term hold than to short-term trading. The company is a mature, late-stage cash generator — $17.085 billion of trailing free cash flow, a 4.81% dividend at a 24.47% payout ratio, and $3.061 billion of quarterly debt repayment — whose returns depend on the slow realization of sum-of-the-parts value through the NBCUniversal spin-off rather than on near-term earnings momentum. Its 0.707 beta makes it roughly 29% less volatile than the market, which dampens portfolio swings but also means the recent +16.48% one-month rally is unusually large for this name and likely reflects mean-reversion and short covering (short ratio 2.4) rather than a durable trend change. Earnings visibility is moderate: consensus 2027 EPS of $4.497 (range $4.429–$4.559) and revenue of $122.5 billion imply stabilization, not a rebound, while the 147%-wide analyst target range of $17–$42 signals genuine disagreement. A minimum holding period of 12–24 months is appropriate to capture a potential spin-off catalyst and collect the dividend, with position sizing that accounts for a realistic -16% to -30% adverse outcome.